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Take Advantage of the Banked Wins

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#21 TFRazor

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 11:28 AM

 

It's 2019 -- they probably don't even have to pick up the phone!

 

Falvine: "Siri, call Farhan Zaidi."

 

Siri: "I could not find any restaurants that serve a far-out baked ziti."

 

Okay, maybe they do have to pick up the phone...

Zaidi should be on speed dial by now


#22 jkcarew

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 11:30 AM

Agree with posters that have cited how weak the Twins schedule has been...AND how weak it will continue to be (overall) for the entire season. That's what makes it tricky in terms of how aggressive the FO should be, IMO. In terms of hopes for actually competing in the post season, one win like yesterday's means more than six pummellings of Baltimore or any number of future pummellings of KC or the White Sox. The players will get a chance to state their case in the near future with a better mix of competing teams appearing on the schedule.


#23 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 11:31 AM

It's 2019 -- they probably don't even have to pick up the phone!

Falvine: "Siri, call Farhan Zaidi."

Siri: "I could not find any restaurants that serve a far-out baked ziti."

Okay, maybe they do have to pick up the phone...


I like this tangent...

Falvine: "Siri, call Billy Beane."

Siri: "Okay, here are places to drink Jim Beam."

Falvine: sigh...

#24 BK432

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 11:58 AM

 

Kimbrel is still out there. Don't need to trade a prospect for him. Just cash. 

 

It's not just cash. It's cash PLUS a draft pick. It's probably nitpicky, but that pick should be worth a lot to the Twins. Kimbrel will probably have several suitors after the draft when the draft pick penalty goes away.

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#25 nicksaviking

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 12:05 PM

 

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.I'll take both or either.

 

I don't want Dyson, but I'll take Smith.

 

I didn't want Bumgarner in the offseason, and he's looking pretty average right now, but it looks like his velocity and movement haven't regressed as expected. I'd take a chance on him, though I wouldn't count on him pulling a Verlander-esque renaissance to slot himself toward the front of the rotation. I'd be setting my expectations at a left-handed Kyle Gibson benchmark.

 

I'm cheering for the Rockies to fall out of contention early. I can find a few arms on that staffs I'd like to try to get. Same with the A's, at least as far as the bullpen is concerned.

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#26 spycake

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 12:13 PM

 

I didn't want Bumgarner in the offseason, and he's looking pretty average right now, but it looks like his velocity and movement haven't regressed as expected. I'd take a chance on him, though I wouldn't count on him pulling a Verlander-esque renaissance to slot himself toward the front of the rotation. I'd be setting my expectations at a left-handed Kyle Gibson benchmark.

Well, Bumgarner isn't even 30 years old yet, so you figure there would be some chance of a renaissance. Although we wouldn't need him to be an ace to be valuable.

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#27 gil4

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 12:36 PM

 

(Reed may well be done)

Do we have any new info on him?What was his injury, anyway? Was it a classic case of "he can't get anyone out so he must be injured"?


#28 Vanimal46

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 01:15 PM

Do we have any new info on him? What was his injury, anyway? Was it a classic case of "he can't get anyone out so he must be injured"?


I think he's just broken now.
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#29 amjgt

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 01:40 PM

 

It's not just cash. It's cash PLUS a draft pick. It's probably nitpicky, but that pick should be worth a lot to the Twins. Kimbrel will probably have several suitors after the draft when the draft pick penalty goes away.

 

I was thinking about this.... 

 

If you're either of the two big names out there at this point do you prefer a 1 year deal? Sure you'd have to do it all over again next winter, but without the draft compensation attached. Counterpoint to that, it sure would be nice to get that guaranteed money you've been chasing for 7 months.

 

If you're a team, how does the price/deal change from before the draft until after it starts. If you're giving up a draft pick you'd like to get more than 4 months out of the guy.... unless the price is right. After the draft, you're just buying a hired gun and he's going to go to the highest bidder. 

 

With Keuchel I'd go 2/30 right now and eat the draft pick, but before the draft if I was doing a 1-year deal it'd have to be pretty inexpensive. Like.... $10M. After the draft, I'm sure he'll get a 1-year $15M offer from someone. 

 

Pretty much the same thing for Kimbrel, but maybe dial back those prices by 20%

 

The advantage Kimbrel would have is that I'm sure a RP can dial it up to full speed faster than a SP, after the signing.

Edited by amjgt, 30 April 2019 - 01:40 PM.

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#30 Monkeypaws

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 01:41 PM

To show how far Addison Reed has fallen, I initially thought we were talking about Jake Reed.

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#31 USAFChief

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:06 PM

 

To show how far Addison Reed has fallen, I initially thought we were talking about Jake Reed.

s-l1000.jpg

Nice to be remembered, man!

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Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#32 yarnivek1972

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:07 PM

It still baffles me that JAKE Reed has yet to even get a shot at the MLB level. He has nothing to prove at AAA. He’s either capable of getting outs at the MLB level or he’s not. IMO, the Twins owe it to him and themselves to find out.
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#33 jtkoupal

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:09 PM

 



With a couple of savvy pitching transactions they could move the needle to 90+ wins.

FiveThirtyEight has the Twins now winning 90 games.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo


#34 howieramone2

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:15 PM

 

Do we have any new info on him?What was his injury, anyway? Was it a classic case of "he can't get anyone out so he must be injured"?

I have no clue when he maybe available. My understanding is he injured his thumb on his non-pitching hand.


#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:16 PM

Nothing will happen for months. Which is a very risk adverse approach, but that's sports.

Whatever happens until July will be internal, which is a problem given how little help the draft has provided for several years now. There just aren't many difference makers that have come up in a couple years now. And AAA looks meh for difference makers.

I still hope they'll do the unthinkable, and deal prospects to add help, but in three years, we've not seen it. When does the sustained competitiveness, and trying to win, start? Hopefully this year.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 30 April 2019 - 02:17 PM.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#36 spycake

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:34 PM

 

FiveThirtyEight has the Twins now winning 90 games.

 

https://projects.fiv...?ex_cid=rrpromo

Fangraphs has us winning 90 now too.

 

Basically, they still have us very near their preseason projection going forward (.539 rest-of-season winning percentage, versus .527 preseason) -- but as the title of this thread suggests, we've "banked" 3-4 wins above that level already. And a projection is always based on neutral luck going forward -- not bad luck to balance out any good luck we've already received.

 

Of course, we know a bad luck month can happen in real life, just like a good luck one. The 2015 Twins were mentioned already; I think that also happened to the 2017 Royals after their big winning streak around the trade deadline, and the 2018 Mariners during the season too.

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#37 bighat

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:50 PM

 

Well, Bumgarner isn't even 30 years old yet, so you figure there would be some chance of a renaissance. Although we wouldn't need him to be an ace to be valuable.

 

The track record of career NL-starters with a few drops of gas left in the tank coming over to the AL isn't very stellar.

 

I'm all for Will Smith from SF, but I think I'll pass on BumG.

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#38 yarnivek1972

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 03:14 PM

The track record of career NL-starters with a few drops of gas left in the tank coming over to the AL isn't very stellar.

I'm all for Will Smith from SF, but I think I'll pass on BumG.


I’m certainly jiggy wit’ it...
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#39 spycake

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 03:15 PM

 

The track record of career NL-starters with a few drops of gas left in the tank coming over to the AL isn't very stellar.

 

I'm all for Will Smith from SF, but I think I'll pass on BumG.

Anecdotally, I think you can come up with examples that did just fine coming over to the AL (Hamels), or at least provided value to their teams (regular season / postseason). I'm sure there are examples the other way too, but the samples so small, and the players so different, I'm not sure it really rises above the anecdotal level when we consider how it might affect one specific player, in one specific season.

 

I'm not saying there wouldn't be risk. But there's risk with everyone. And we wouldn't need him to be great forever, just looking for a solid partial season / postseason. You can pass him up, but there's not likely to be a better guy available. (And obviously the risk would depend on the cost, which I admit might be prohibitive, especially this early in the season.)

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#40 Doomtints

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 03:57 PM

 

Nothing will happen for months. Which is a very risk adverse approach, but that's sports.

Whatever happens until July will be internal, which is a problem given how little help the draft has provided for several years now. There just aren't many difference makers that have come up in a couple years now. And AAA looks meh for difference makers.

I still hope they'll do the unthinkable, and deal prospects to add help, but in three years, we've not seen it. When does the sustained competitiveness, and trying to win, start? Hopefully this year.

 

But gosh the Window™ is not open yet.

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