Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Take Advantage of the Banked Wins

  • Please log in to reply
183 replies to this topic

#1 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    What's His OPS?

  • Member
  • 12,626 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 30 April 2019 - 07:20 AM

The Twins are going to end April either 7 or 8 games above .500... It's been a long time since we could say that. Is this the best stretch of baseball they've played since going 20-7 in May 2015?

Back in that season very few actually believed the Twins were that good, they didn't take advantage of the banked wins, and skidded to an 83 win season.

I am hoping this year is different, and they take advantage of a hot start... Make an early, aggressive trade for pitching help. Find that elusive starter to transform this team from a cute story to a contender. This is the year to go for it!
  • glunn, Blake, Mike Frasier Law and 5 others like this

#2 MMMordabito

MMMordabito

    Formerly nasu1970

  • Member
  • 959 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 07:28 AM

 

The Twins are going to end April either 7 or 8 games above .500

 

So, a rainout or a loss today?:)

  • Vanimal46 likes this

#3 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    What's His OPS?

  • Member
  • 12,626 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 30 April 2019 - 07:29 AM

So, a rainout or a loss today? :)


Math is hard early in the morning!
  • Blake likes this

#4 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    What's His OPS?

  • Member
  • 12,626 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 30 April 2019 - 07:56 AM



With a couple of savvy pitching transactions they could move the needle to 90+ wins.
  • glunn, Blake, scottz and 6 others like this

#5 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Moderator
  • 11,259 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 08:20 AM

90 win lineup, 80 win starting rotation, 70 win bullpen.

I agree with Vanimal— this nice start should be enough to convince the front office that getting more pitching would make a difference.
  • USAFChief, glunn, Blake and 7 others like this

#6 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Member
  • 16,930 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 08:31 AM

 

90 win lineup, 80 win starting rotation, 70 win bullpen.

I agree with Vanimal— this nice start should be enough to convince the front office that getting more pitching would make a difference.

 

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.I'll take both or either.

  • Hosken Bombo Disco, Vanimal46, psturnbloom and 1 other like this

#7 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Moderator
  • 11,259 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 08:44 AM

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.I'll take both or either.

Hard to disagree—the pitching staff is one injury away from looking pretty shabby, regardless of how well they are game planning.

Trades have already been made since the start of the season.

#8 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    A Little Teapot

  • Owner
  • 22,637 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 08:51 AM

I’m not ready to get a starter... yet.

I’ve been ready to get a reliever going on six months.

But yes, this is the year to be aggressive. It’s basically impossible to make a decent trade at this point of the season but roll the dice with some aggressive call-ups, maybe you get lucky.
  • glunn, birdwatcher, diehardtwinsfan and 10 others like this

#9 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 3,688 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 09:20 AM

It's too early to know what's going on with the Twins.

 

The Twins had the 5th easiest schedule in baseball so far, but take away the Twins and the Orioles are a .500 team and suddenly it's not such an easy schedule on paper.

 

Regardless of all that, right now the Twins are a top 10 team and that's pretty cool. If they keep hitting like this, they could even beat the big boring team in the AL East.

 

To address the OP, should the Twins make some moves to bolster their bullpen or rotation to be an even tougher team going forward? I don't know the answer to that, but I know that's not the Twins style.

Edited by Doomtints, 30 April 2019 - 09:21 AM.

  • glunn likes this

Twins Manifesto: Build for .500, hope for more.


#10 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    What's His OPS?

  • Member
  • 12,626 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 30 April 2019 - 09:32 AM

It's too early to know what's going on with the Twins.

The Twins had the 5th easiest schedule in baseball so far, but take away the Twins and the Orioles are a .500 team and suddenly it's not such an easy schedule on paper.

Regardless of all that, right now the Twins are a top 10 team and that's pretty cool. If they keep hitting like this, they could even beat the big boring team in the AL East.

To address the OP, should the Twins make some moves to bolster their bullpen or rotation to be an even tougher team going forward? I don't know the answer to that, but I know that's not the Twins style.


Someone mentioned in another thread that the Twins have 53 games remaining against KC, Detroit, and the White Sox... The schedule is going to remain fairly easy given the state of the AL Central.

I agree it's definitely not the Twins style to bolster the MLB team during the season. It was the biggest gripe I had with the mid-2000s Twins teams. I hope the new regime realizes the opportunity they're in this year (weak division foes, big market clubs already having injury issues) and takes advantage.
  • glunn, James, Mike Frasier Law and 8 others like this

#11 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Member
  • 1,682 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 30 April 2019 - 09:32 AM

I'm guessing they are waiting to see what they have before trading for a relief pitcher at the deadline. Romero, May, and Mejia all have good stuff, but haven't worked themselves into the mix(Reed may well be done).

 

I'm hoping they spend big. So many teams went dumpster diving this offseason to fill their bullpens.  

  • PseudoSABR likes this

#12 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 16,553 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 10:02 AM

 

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

Fangraphs concurs -- they had us at 35.8% playoff odds before the season, versus 70.4% today.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-04-30&dateDelta=

 

The Rays have experienced an even bigger jump so far -- 28% preseason, up to 78% today.

  • glunn, Mike Frasier Law and Vanimal46 like this

#13 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 16,553 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 10:21 AM

 

I put the whole pitching staff at 70 personally.I'd be on the phone right now seeing what San Fran wants for MadBum and Dyson.I'll take both or either.

I'd love that in theory, but I think a Bumgarner trade would be largely unprecedented this early in the season. I might be afraid of what we'd have to give up to make it happen so early.

 

A reliever is more attainable, although it's probably still early to find a really good one. The Mariners got Alex Colome on May 25th last year, along with Denard Span in a salary dump type move. Maybe the Giants give us Melancon? Or pair a cheaper reliever with Samardzija? (I think they'd want talent more than just salary relief in a Bumgarner trade.)

  • glunn and birdwatcher like this

#14 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    What's His OPS?

  • Member
  • 12,626 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 30 April 2019 - 10:46 AM

Thanks for sharing.

Fangraphs concurs -- they had us at 35.8% playoff odds before the season, versus 70.4% today.

https://www.fangraph...4-30&dateDelta=

The Rays have experienced an even bigger jump so far -- 28% preseason, up to 78% today.

IMO they're in a perfect position to play with the margins a little bit. Try acquiring a reliever who may get you another .5 WAR over an internal candidate. Or make a big splash for a MadBum or Thor before the bidding war begins.

The end goal should be to find/acquire another win or 2 over the course of this season.

Edited by Vanimal46, 30 April 2019 - 10:48 AM.

  • Mike Frasier Law likes this

#15 BoofBonser

BoofBonser

    (not really Boof Bonser)

  • Member
  • 870 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 10:49 AM

 

The Twins are going to end April either 7 or 8 games above .500... It's been a long time since we could say that. Is this the best stretch of baseball they've played since going 20-7 in May 2015?

Back in that season very few actually believed the Twins were that good, they didn't take advantage of the banked wins, and skidded to an 83 win season.

I am hoping this year is different, and they take advantage of a hot start... Make an early, aggressive trade for pitching help. Find that elusive starter to transform this team from a cute story to a contender. This is the year to go for it!

Fernando Romero comes to mind when I think of pitching help... If he can have better command the rest of the season, he'd be a key part of the bullpen/rotation

 

Brusdar Graterol also comes to mind... He's only 20, but he's dominated AA so far: Could we see a second half call-up if an injury happens? 

  • glunn, birdwatcher and Vanimal46 like this

#16 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    G.O.A.T.

  • Moderator
  • 14,273 posts
  • Locationthe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 30 April 2019 - 10:51 AM

 

I’m not ready to get a starter... yet.

I’ve been ready to get a reliever going on six months.

But yes, this is the year to be aggressive. It’s basically impossible to make a decent trade at this point of the season but roll the dice with some aggressive call-ups, maybe you get lucky.

 

yeah this... unless it's a difference maker at SP under contract for a while like Thor, I'm not terribly interested in starters...

 

But definitely want to see a reliever or two. Kimbrel is still out there. Don't need to trade a prospect for him. Just cash. 

  • birdwatcher likes this

#17 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Member
  • 16,930 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 10:52 AM

 

I'd love that in theory, but I think a Bumgarner trade would be largely unprecedented this early in the season. I might be afraid of what we'd have to give up to make it happen so early.

 

A reliever is more attainable, although it's probably still early to find a really good one. The Mariners got Alex Colome on May 25th last year, along with Denard Span in a salary dump type move. Maybe the Giants give us Melancon? Or pair a cheaper reliever with Samardzija? (I think they'd want talent more than just salary relief in a Bumgarner trade.)

 

Everything you say is a valid point.I still pick up the phone and try, :)

  • spycake likes this

#18 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    What's His OPS?

  • Member
  • 12,626 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 30 April 2019 - 10:59 AM

Fernando Romero comes to mind when I think of pitching help... If he can have better command the rest of the season, he'd be a key part of the bullpen/rotation

Brusdar Graterol also comes to mind... He's only 20, but he's dominated AA so far: Could we see a second half call-up if an injury happens?


Romero would be a welcomed addition if he can figure out what to do in the bullpen... I'm not sure they will start Graterol's service time clock yet but I like the thought.

I'd like to start with adding an established MLB bullpen arm who can handle high leverage spots
  • Danchat, Don Walcott and BoofBonser like this

#19 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 16,553 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 11:17 AM

 

Everything you say is a valid point.I still pick up the phone and try, :)

It's 2019 -- they probably don't even have to pick up the phone!

 

Falvine: "Siri, call Farhan Zaidi."

 

Siri: "I could not find any restaurants that serve a far-out baked ziti."

 

Okay, maybe they do have to pick up the phone...

  • ashbury, USAFChief, glunn and 9 others like this

#20 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 16,553 posts

Posted 30 April 2019 - 11:25 AM

 

Brusdar Graterol also comes to mind... He's only 20, but he's dominated AA so far: Could we see a second half call-up if an injury happens? 

I'd love it, but Graterol's K rate has been roughly league average at AA this year (and last year at high-A). Not saying he can't be successful with that profile, but it might be hard to count on him being successful in MLB right out of the gate if he's relying more on balls in play. Especially if he's also blowing past his career high for innings (102) while moving up multiple levels.

  • BoofBonser likes this