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Article: Week in Review: Short But Sweet

mitch garver
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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 01:46 PM

The test of a SP these days is essentially, can you reliably (>50% of the time) make it thru the first four batters of a team's lineup three times. If so, start your own games. If not, you need an opener with the hope you can give the team five innings instead of just four.

Berrios and Pineda seem fine (Pineda's pitch count can sometimes get worrisome, but seems solid for 90+ pitches each outing). Gibson I'm fine with in the long run, even if he is closer to a 4.20ERA pitcher going forward.

Odorizzi has routinely been the type of SP that cannot get the 19th batter out with any consistency...and it typically goes downhill fast. Even when he's cruising, he crumbles. He's an enigma who looks like a bonafide ace for the first 18 batters. He is the poster-boy for using an opener to squeeze an extra inning out of each day he pitches.

Pairing an opener with Odorizzi could potentially save the bullpen from 30 innings of work over the course of a season. That's huge.

We'll see how Perez performs as a SP here, but the bullpen numbers are not encouraging. While he may need an opener as well, he is not comparable to Odorizzi in why he needs an opener. Perez seems more like a 4.80 ERA guy that needs an opener due to futility.


Great post!

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#22 jkcarew

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 02:40 PM

 

I'm not sure it's an intent as much as it is that this team is loaded with higher K guys who aren't known to take pitches. That's what happens when you get Cron, Cruze, and Schoop and pair him with guys like Rosario.

Reading my post..it was criptic. What I was trying to say....

 

Swinging earlier in the count reduces K-rate,...over time, you are less likely to strike out if you are hacking early. And I think the Twins have deliberately taken the approach to do that. (Albeit, probably for more reasons than to reduce K rate.) Currently the Twins have the 4th LOWEST K% in all of baseball....while seeing the fewest pitches per PA. It's early, but still not what I expected heading into the season.


#23 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 03:08 PM

I'm not sure it's an intent as much as it is that this team is loaded with higher K guys who aren't known to take pitches. That's what happens when you get Cron, Cruze, and Schoop and pair him with guys like Rosario.


According to Lavelle, it's intentional.
He said on the radio this morning that the coaching staff is preaching the hitters to attack strikes early in the count.
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#24 USAFChief

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 04:08 PM

 

According to Lavelle, it's intentional.
He said on the radio this morning that the coaching staff is preaching the hitters to attack strikes early in the count.

Me likey.

 

After watching Mauer start 91.57 percent of his PAs by watching strike one split the plate, and pulling my (little remaining) hair out, it's a refreshing change.

 

Just make sure it's a good pitch to swing at.

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#25 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 04:34 PM

Remember the Twins played against a fair number of high-quality pitchers so far, Arrieta, DeGrom, Syndergard, Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, guys who are going to be around the plate and have a long track record.

 

Twins' plate appearances might well change as they work against the rest of the league, hurlers not yet proven to throw strikes.

 

But, yes, they are coming out swinging.


#26 h2oface

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 04:46 PM

"Hildenberger came in and struck out back-to-back hitters. In 5 1/3 innings this year, he has allowed zero runs on four hits with nine strikeouts and one walk. Hildy is throwing 70% strikes with a 17.5% whiff rate."

 

Hey, I am as happy as the next fan for Hildenberger saving Parker's mess and closing out the 1 game in spectacular fashion. But let's get real here. That was just days after letting 3 inherited runners score while coming in with the bases loaded in the Philly debacle. The save was a spectacular one game performance. Parker is surely not my choice for closing, but people calling for his DFA (not on this thread but game threads) is ridiculous. He is doing well in the pen mostly. And so is Hildenberger. But talking about reliever's performances and stats without including the inherited runners scored is just academically unsound and intellectually dishonest. The reliever's job is relief, and if they just pass on the poor stats to the previous pitcher while looking clean, that is not relief, and it speaks to their value probably as much if not more than those stats that were noted. I certainly hope that Hildenberger does not become the closer. Right now, I think the Twins don't have one. Rodgers may not be one either, and he is currently my choice, but getting no opportunites. All good set up options, but we need a closer.

 

Any great closers on the free agent market?

 

But make no mistake.... 8-4 looks real sweet at the end of the week.

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#27 Doomtints

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 04:52 PM

Since 2017, in 191 PA against LHB from Single-A through MLB, Andrew Vazquez has allowed 43 hits (.196 avg) and 4 XBH (.220 slg) with 70 K (37%) and 12 BB (6%).

 

He's not bad. Something was just horribly awry tonight.

 

So ... he's the next Kevin Slowey?

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#28 Nine of twelve

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 05:30 PM

 

I think it's building in flexibility around potential weather issues that happen in the spring...

 

My problem is that I think northern teams should probably play a bit more on the road against teams in the south early on in the season... I'm sure there's a good reason why they won't do that, but that seems to me to be the answer to blizzards cancelling games like this week and several times last spring.

The good reason is that half of MLB teams can be considered northern teams. NYY, NYM, Bos, Phi, Pit, Cle, Bal, Cin, Det, CWS, ChC, Min, Col, StL, KC. Is it fair to have all those teams play lots of road games early in the season, always, every year? Probably not.

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#29 wallyrichards

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 06:29 PM

LETS PLAY BALL!!! 


#30 Riverbrian

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 07:57 PM

 

Reading my post..it was criptic. What I was trying to say....

 

Swinging earlier in the count reduces K-rate,...over time, you are less likely to strike out if you are hacking early. And I think the Twins have deliberately taken the approach to do that. (Albeit, probably for more reasons than to reduce K rate.) Currently the Twins have the 4th LOWEST K% in all of baseball....while seeing the fewest pitches per PA. It's early, but still not what I expected heading into the season.

 

Old baseball methodology asked that batters should work the count in order to increase pitch counts and reduce the amount of innings the starter throws.

 

Fast forward to today and many teams still think that way... but they haven't seemed to notice that the bullpens are performing better than the starting pitchers.

 

So... you might as well attack early. Avoid running into the two strike slider and let the starter stay in the game as long as he likes to avoid the bullpens now throwing high 90's heat. 

 

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#31 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:20 PM

The good reason is that half of MLB teams can be considered northern teams. NYY, NYM, Bos, Phi, Pit, Cle, Bal, Cin, Det, CWS, ChC, Min, Col, StL, KC. Is it fair to have all those teams play lots of road games early in the season, always, every year? Probably not.


The northern teams would love to play a lot of road games early in the year, when school is still in session.
It's the southern teams that would never go for giving up a bunch of their summer home games when bed time isn't an issue.
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#32 Thegrin

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 11:50 AM

I'd like to see some old fashion "pitch to contact" with some quick outs. These 10 pitch at bats will wear out any pitching staff before the summer gets here.  :)


#33 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 12:10 PM

 

The good reason is that half of MLB teams can be considered northern teams. NYY, NYM, Bos, Phi, Pit, Cle, Bal, Cin, Det, CWS, ChC, Min, Col, StL, KC. Is it fair to have all those teams play lots of road games early in the season, always, every year? Probably not.

 

I'm not going to pretend it would be perfect, but it does make more sense to be playing games further south. I'd note that several teams you mentioned (particularly KC, STL, Pit, and Phi) which in general would be safer (random spring blizzards excluded) as those climates do tend to be a bit warmer come April. 


#34 wsnydes

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 12:47 PM

 

The good reason is that half of MLB teams can be considered northern teams. NYY, NYM, Bos, Phi, Pit, Cle, Bal, Cin, Det, CWS, ChC, Min, Col, StL, KC. Is it fair to have all those teams play lots of road games early in the season, always, every year? Probably not.

The flip side of this is that southern teams could also play fewer games at home when it's 95+ and humid.

 

Ultimately, I think it's a balancing act. I'm sure that most teams do actually want early home games to capitalize on the new season's optimism. Where a team like the Twins fail is that they have a prolonged period where they haven't been very good. While the cold weather does act as a deterrent, it's not as though this team has drawn well even when the weather does improve. If the team was good, people would still come out to the ballpark regardless of the weather. 

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#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 02:20 PM

 

The northern teams would love to play a lot of road games early in the year, when school is still in session.
It's the southern teams that would never go for giving up a bunch of their summer home games when bed time isn't an issue.

 

Exactly.

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#36 h2oface

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 03:55 PM

Vasquez replaced by Duffey. He got one outing, and at the wrong time to put him in the game. He was horrible, but he shouldn't even have been put in the game with the bases loaded for his first and only MLB appearance. Now Duffey. A proven commodity, eh?




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