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Article: Twins Minor League Report (4/14): Miracle Bats Bust Out

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#21 mlhouse

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 05:10 PM

Again, to demonstrate the Twins vs. other organization lets compare Michael Reed, a guy we picked up but traded away and LaMonte Wade's career.

 

https://www.baseball...id=reed--002mic

https://www.baseball...id=wade--000lam

 

Reed was a high school draft choice in 2011 while Wade was a college draft pick in 2015.

 

In 2011 Reed played in ROK league and had an OPS of .670.

In 2012, as a 19 year old, Reed played in ROK+ league and had an OPS of .638 but taste of A+ and AA.

In 2013 A ball, improved walk totals and had OPS of .785.

In 2014 A+ OPS of .774

In 2015 he started in AA played well with .801 OPS, moved to AAA .732 OPS in 148 pa, then got late season debut with the Brewers as a 22 year old (6 plate appearances in 7 games).

 

I get that Wade was an olderplayer but lets compare his journey.

 

2015 ROK/A  .904 OPS

2016 A/A+ .841 OPS

2017 AA .805 OPS (this is a big leap for a Twins prospect)

2018 AA/AAA .739 OPS

 

While he was an older player than Reed, in his first four seasons in professional ball Wade completely outplayed Reed.Yet, the Brewers advanced a much younger player as quick or even quicker as the Twins advanced Wade, a college player.  

 

In the end, Michael Reed's minor league movement compares to Max Kepler's but Kepler performance was much superior.   


#22 Dman

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 07:10 PM

 

I fail to see any "aggressive promotion" that you speak of. 

 

Baddoo? He spent two years at the Rookie level and then advanced one level a year in 2018 and 2019.Miranda?He spent two years at the Rookie level.He got promited to A+ second half of last year but then restarted there.

 

Here is news for you, this "aggressive promotion" isn't aggressive promotion.It is at best normal promotion.The task of minor league baseball lisn't that they "do well" at a level, it is to develop them as players.The Twins have done a piss poor job of that all the while moving their players slowly through the system.

 

We probably see promotion differently.For Me aggressive promotion sometimes has more to with age than how long a player is at a level.Badoo is young for his current level and has been young for pretty much all levels so far.When most HS players are drafted they don't play much that first year so they typically have to repeat the level to show that they have some skill to move up. 

 

In the Appy league he showed a good eye at the plate and showed some power.He looked ready for A ball.In A ball he showed an OK eye at the plate but seemed to have contact issue as his K rate climbed.If his contact rate was better the first half of A ball I am sure the Twins would have moved him up just like they did with Miranda, but if you don't conquer the level why should you move up?He had a better second half but still has some contact issue's IMO.They moved him to A+ this year anyway to keep him moving.He is young for the level and struggling right now as a 20 year old.If he figures things out he will get moved to AA if not they will leave him where he is.I still think it is an aggressive promotion because he never really dominated A ball IMO.The Twins apparently believe the skills are there and want to challenge him with the next level.

 

I'm not sure what you want when it comes to promotion. While you can push players why push them if they are not ready?If they haven't dominated the level they are at why promote to them to a higher level where they are even more likely to fail?They have to dominate or at the very least be good at a level before promoting them.

 

Do the Twins slow play some players, absolutely yes.I don't understand the way they treat relievers at all.I think Gonasalves got mentioned and although he has dominated in both AA and AAA he did not handle MLB well at all.IMO if he throws strikes when he was brought up they would have let him keep pitching but a starting pitcher with his walk rate does not belong on a MLB team.He had more to work on so I think he proved the Twins correct for slow playing him.He needs to have better control to be succesful in MLB. Once he has the tools he will get his shot.AA and AAA get treated fairly similar so I don't think it matters too much where you play once you get there as the Twins have promoted from AA before.

 

In summary I think you can only aggressively promote players that are ready.They have to prove they are ready by consistently mastering the competition or the very least be better than average.If players don't do that how can you aggressively promote?While I like your examples and think you have a decent case we don't get to see these players, only the box scores so it is hard to know what warts they have despite having some success against their peers.  

 

Maybe the Twins are not the most aggressive team when it comes to promotion but I don't think they are the worst either.

 

 


#23 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 17 April 2019 - 04:50 AM

We probably see promotion differently. For Me aggressive promotion sometimes has more to with age than how long a player is at a level. Badoo is young for his current level and has been young for pretty much all levels so far. When most HS players are drafted they don't play much that first year so they typically have to repeat the level to show that they have some skill to move up.

In the Appy league he showed a good eye at the plate and showed some power. He looked ready for A ball. In A ball he showed an OK eye at the plate but seemed to have contact issue as his K rate climbed. If his contact rate was better the first half of A ball I am sure the Twins would have moved him up just like they did with Miranda, but if you don't conquer the level why should you move up? He had a better second half but still has some contact issue's IMO. They moved him to A+ this year anyway to keep him moving. He is young for the level and struggling right now as a 20 year old. If he figures things out he will get moved to AA if not they will leave him where he is. I still think it is an aggressive promotion because he never really dominated A ball IMO. The Twins apparently believe the skills are there and want to challenge him with the next level.

I'm not sure what you want when it comes to promotion. While you can push players why push them if they are not ready? If they haven't dominated the level they are at why promote to them to a higher level where they are even more likely to fail? They have to dominate or at the very least be good at a level before promoting them.

Do the Twins slow play some players, absolutely yes. I don't understand the way they treat relievers at all. I think Gonasalves got mentioned and although he has dominated in both AA and AAA he did not handle MLB well at all. IMO if he throws strikes when he was brought up they would have let him keep pitching but a starting pitcher with his walk rate does not belong on a MLB team. He had more to work on so I think he proved the Twins correct for slow playing him. He needs to have better control to be succesful in MLB. Once he has the tools he will get his shot. AA and AAA get treated fairly similar so I don't think it matters too much where you play once you get there as the Twins have promoted from AA before.

In summary I think you can only aggressively promote players that are ready. They have to prove they are ready by consistently mastering the competition or the very least be better than average. If players don't do that how can you aggressively promote? While I like your examples and think you have a decent case we don't get to see these players, only the box scores so it is hard to know what warts they have despite having some success against their peers.

Maybe the Twins are not the most aggressive team when it comes to promotion but I don't think they are the worst either.


While I don't necessarily disagree with your overall position, I cringe when people use the "they are young for their league" argument to defend non promotions.
Actual prospects are nearly always going to be young for their league, no matter how slowly they are promoted.
The milb non prospect (which is the vast majority of players) lifers skew that average age up, as do mid to late round college filler picks.
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#24 Dman

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Posted 17 April 2019 - 11:02 AM

 

While I don't necessarily disagree with your overall position, I cringe when people use the "they are young for their league" argument to defend non promotions.
Actual prospects are nearly always going to be young for their league, no matter how slowly they are promoted.
The milb non prospect (which is the vast majority of players) lifers skew that average age up, as do mid to late round college filler picks.

 

I understand your position as well and agree with you in many ways.Most superstar\really good players typically are young usually 21 or 22 by AA\AAA.College draft picks are already 20 when they come out so need to be promoted fast to hit that mark.I also agree with you that leagues have what I would call filler players who are quite old for the level they are playing at skewing the age numbers for the leagues.Still in my mind kids that are 20 and in High A are fast movers as there are not a lot of players that age at that level.

 

You do have to keep in mind that some late bloomers can be really good players as well.I am thinking Merrifield as a good example.Contributors come from every age group.It is the younger players that we get excited about though as they tend be difference makers and have the potential to help a team long term. We haven't seen enough of those types of players in the past but it seems like we have several in the system right now.




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