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Buxton Stolen Base Streak

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#21 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 10:21 AM

 

I think caution is the word of the day.

And given the depth in this lineup, it’s not like Buxton batting ninth is killing their run-scoring opportunities.

My personal stance is wait until the calendar rolls into May and then make a decision.

That's not a bad take at all. I was thinking more 6th-8th anyways, moving him ahead of Schoop and Gonzalez and see how he reacts... not ready to drop him in the leadoff spot just yet. 

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#22 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 18 April 2019 - 08:27 PM

33

#23 yarnivek1972

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Posted 18 April 2019 - 08:29 PM

the fast that he has this few is (to me at least) a bigger problem. He doesn't get caught. He should be sent more.


He has to be ON base in order to steal. With no one on ahead of him.
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#24 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 18 April 2019 - 08:46 PM

The great thing about Buxton stealing second base is the head-first pop up slide. We may never see him overslide the bag again, because he can somehow go head first to the ground, into the base, and an instant later stand himself up while still bent at the waist holding the bag with his hands. Just watch. Hamilton couldn’t quite do that. I’ve tried to look at some clips of Henderson, and he didn’t do that (at least in the clips I saw). The streak is wonderful, but if it ends I won’t mind, because the speed and skill Buxton has stealing second base is second to none.
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#25 DiscGolfer

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Posted 21 April 2019 - 09:58 PM

He doesn't need to steal second when he hits a double and he's there already.No real need for him to steal third if he can score from second on just about any hit.


#26 jimbo92107

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Posted 21 April 2019 - 10:28 PM

I have zero concern for any consecutive steals record. Best use of Buxton is as a disruptive force on the base paths. That means stealing second, third, and home. Obviously, stealing home is the hardest, but when there's a ridiculous shift, or a lefty pitcher that looks at the ground during the set...then he should go for it. 

 

Not being 100 percent successful is fine by me. Meanwhile, Buxton's presence at first, second or third base should be making the pitcher nervous as hell. He should be dancing, thumbing his nose, saying "nyah-nyah," etc. He should be drawing a dozen pick off throws per game. Each one is a chance for the pitcher to throw one past the baseman. Each time he checks on Buxton, he's thinking about Buxton, not the hitter or the strike zone. Buxton can make a pitcher lose his poise, and his cool. It's that kind of incessant pressure that tells me I would green light him to steal every time he's on base, and I would NEVER, EVER criticize Buxton for getting caught. 

 

Buxton as he is right now is worth almost a run a game. If he starts stealing third, he'll be worth closer to two runs per game. That's not just because he's a threat to steal, but because the hitter is facing a pitcher whose attention is divided. Pitchers like that throw balls into the dirt, or right down the middle. 

Edited by jimbo92107, 21 April 2019 - 10:28 PM.

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#27 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 April 2019 - 11:02 PM

 

I have zero concern for any consecutive steals record. Best use of Buxton is as a disruptive force on the base paths. That means stealing second, third, and home. Obviously, stealing home is the hardest, but when there's a ridiculous shift, or a lefty pitcher that looks at the ground during the set...then he should go for it. 

 

Not being 100 percent successful is fine by me. Meanwhile, Buxton's presence at first, second or third base should be making the pitcher nervous as hell. He should be dancing, thumbing his nose, saying "nyah-nyah," etc. He should be drawing a dozen pick off throws per game. Each one is a chance for the pitcher to throw one past the baseman. Each time he checks on Buxton, he's thinking about Buxton, not the hitter or the strike zone. Buxton can make a pitcher lose his poise, and his cool. It's that kind of incessant pressure that tells me I would green light him to steal every time he's on base, and I would NEVER, EVER criticize Buxton for getting caught. 

 

Buxton as he is right now is worth almost a run a game. If he starts stealing third, he'll be worth closer to two runs per game. That's not just because he's a threat to steal, but because the hitter is facing a pitcher whose attention is divided. Pitchers like that throw balls into the dirt, or right down the middle. 

You're wildly overstating the value of disruption in runs per game but I agree with you.

Literally, a guy who is worth two runs per game is worth 324 runs per season. The average team scores roughly 750-800 runs per season.

 

Buxton, like every major leaguer who isn't Barry Bonds, works within the margins.

 

Again, I agree that Buxton could be a larger asset if he acted more like Rickey Henderson than Vince Coleman. Henderson was, in my opinion, slower than Coleman, but Rickey had an attitude to screw with the defense and pitcher that Vince did not.

 

And in today's game, I think the ability to mess with a pitcher's head is more important than actually taking the base. Distract them, force the fastball.

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#28 jimbo92107

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 12:39 AM

 

You're wildly overstating the value of disruption in runs per game but I agree with you.

Literally, a guy who is worth two runs per game is worth 324 runs per season. The average team scores roughly 750-800 runs per season.

 

Buxton, like every major leaguer who isn't Barry Bonds, works within the margins.

 

Again, I agree that Buxton could be a larger asset if he acted more like Rickey Henderson than Vince Coleman. Henderson was, in my opinion, slower than Coleman, but Rickey had an attitude to screw with the defense and pitcher that Vince did not.

 

And in today's game, I think the ability to mess with a pitcher's head is more important than actually taking the base. Distract them, force the fastball.

If I were manager, I would tell Buxton that unless a pitcher has one of the quickest deliveries to home and the catcher is renowned for his great arm, to steal on every pitch. Especially in today's game, where more and more pitchers have less and less expertise holding runners, Buxton's running game could disrupt the way pitchers and catchers interact. 

 

Right now Buxton's success rate is 100 percent. I'd want him to push his luck until his success rate was around 90 percent. That would at least double his stolen base totals, and would drive opponents crazy. What do you do, keep checking the runner until the crowd boos you off the field? Throw one pitch-out after another? 

 

I agree with you that attitude is the main thing holding back Buxton. Rickey Henderson LOVED to irritate pitchers. Could be that Buxton is too polite to think that way. He steals second because he's supposed to, not because he loves it. I just wish Baldy would tell Buxton to start stealing third, every chance. There's no way he would get caught more than 1 time in 10, especially when he learns to stretch the lead at 2nd base. Even if he gets picked off, he'd have a fair chance of making it to 3rd anyway. if he breaks for 3rd and the pitcher throws behind him to 2nd. Just do the old Carew pop-up slide with both hands in the air. Ball would hit him in the back half the time...

 

You're right, I get a little too giddy about Buxton and his speed. It's candy, man!

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#29 h2oface

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 12:49 AM

 

Why? He can score from 2nd on almost any ball put in play.

 

But not on almost any fly ball with one out or less!


#30 h2oface

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 12:54 AM

The Twins are currently the worst base stealing team in MLB, with 4 total as a team, all Buxton. They are 4/7..... only 7 total base stealing attempts.KC has 27, Seattle 22, and even the White Sox have 20 and are 20/24!

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#31 Nine of twelve

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 06:25 AM

If Buxton continues to lead the majors in doubles it could reduce stolen base opportunities.

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#32 MMMordabito

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 10:26 AM

If Buxton is on first and the rest of the bases are clear, Kepler should be sitting on pipeshot fastball across his favorite part of the plate, especially with 0-1 outs, until he has two strikes. 

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#33 Kelly Vance

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 11:01 AM

 

If I were manager, I would tell Buxton that unless a pitcher has one of the quickest deliveries to home and the catcher is renowned for his great arm, to steal on every pitch. Especially in today's game, where more and more pitchers have less and less expertise holding runners, Buxton's running game could disrupt the way pitchers and catchers interact. 

 

Right now Buxton's success rate is 100 percent. I'd want him to push his luck until his success rate was around 90 percent. That would at least double his stolen base totals, and would drive opponents crazy. What do you do, keep checking the runner until the crowd boos you off the field? Throw one pitch-out after another? 

 

I agree with you that attitude is the main thing holding back Buxton. Rickey Henderson LOVED to irritate pitchers. Could be that Buxton is too polite to think that way. He steals second because he's supposed to, not because he loves it. I just wish Baldy would tell Buxton to start stealing third, every chance. There's no way he would get caught more than 1 time in 10, especially when he learns to stretch the lead at 2nd base. Even if he gets picked off, he'd have a fair chance of making it to 3rd anyway. if he breaks for 3rd and the pitcher throws behind him to 2nd. Just do the old Carew pop-up slide with both hands in the air. Ball would hit him in the back half the time...

 

You're right, I get a little too giddy about Buxton and his speed. It's candy, man!

Well, yes and no.Thing about stealing on a first pitch is that it gives you less chances to disrupt the pitcher. If you distract a pitcher for two or three pitches before you go, it helps a hitter more. You make the pitcher and catcher guess by NOT stealing on the first pitch. Maybe they waste a pitch on a pitch out and lets the batter maybe get ahead on the count. If you get into a pattern of stealing on the first pitch they will see it and pitch out, which gives the catcher a chance. You gotta mix it up to be most effective. But I agree with Buck stealing every time he gets on first. Let him signal the hitter which pitch he is going to be going on. 

 

As for stealing 3b, that depends on the situation. You never want to make the first or third out at 3b. But against a shift or if the hitter is right handed, or if 1 out, its a better risk. And getting to 3b also increases your chance at scoring on a wild pitch or passed ball. But stealing 3b is not as good of a risk/reward. Youwant to steal 2b to get into scoring position. But as many others have pointed out, you can score from 2b on almost any hit, so why risk it?Ask Ricky. His record breaking steal was of 3b. 

 

I have been in the camp of batting Buck lead off all along. This year, his hitting has improved to the point where the Twins should do it. Hit Jorge 2nd and Cruz, Rosario, Cron and Keps. Buck is our best baserunner. He would be at the top of my lineup if I were coach. 

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#34 SwainZag

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 03:17 PM

I'm curious to know how many potential attempts he has even had to nab bases this year.Of his 17 hits only 4 have been singles.He also has 4 walks.I know 3rd base is a potential base to steal, but of the more rare variety.That's 8 times he has been on 1st base via hit/walk, but does not account for if anyone was on in front of him.I am sure there has been a fielder's choice here or there too, but opportunities look pretty scarce so far. 


#35 Dantes929

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 04:04 PM

First of all I think he tries plenty. I rarely see him on first for more than a few pitches and yes, he should have the option of picking any of the first 4 pitches to go on. Its disruptive and it helps him read the pitcher and absolutely I want him to maintain the 100%.I think I read somewhere you have to steal like 80% to really make it worth while.His problem by far has been getting to first base.I know he is leading the league in doubles which is great but if no one is on ahead of him a single or walk is nearly equivalent to a double.I have said this often but he should be bunting often for base hits.It is extremely exciting when he gets one down and pitchers and infielders hate it.  

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#36 jorgenswest

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 05:22 PM

Buxton is so amazing in the bases.

His double coupled with advancing on two relatively shallow fly balls to score couldn’t have been matched by any other major leaguer. That fourth run was critical.

I don’t think he needs to steal more often. I really don’t think he should be getting behind in the count by a failed bunt attempt. Give him three strikes to put the ball in play.

#37 jimbo92107

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 05:35 PM

 

Well, yes and no.Thing about stealing on a first pitch is that it gives you less chances to disrupt the pitcher. If you distract a pitcher for two or three pitches before you go, it helps a hitter more. You make the pitcher and catcher guess by NOT stealing on the first pitch. Maybe they waste a pitch on a pitch out and lets the batter maybe get ahead on the count. If you get into a pattern of stealing on the first pitch they will see it and pitch out, which gives the catcher a chance. You gotta mix it up to be most effective. But I agree with Buck stealing every time he gets on first. Let him signal the hitter which pitch he is going to be going on. 

 

As for stealing 3b, that depends on the situation. You never want to make the first or third out at 3b. But against a shift or if the hitter is right handed, or if 1 out, its a better risk. And getting to 3b also increases your chance at scoring on a wild pitch or passed ball. But stealing 3b is not as good of a risk/reward. Youwant to steal 2b to get into scoring position. But as many others have pointed out, you can score from 2b on almost any hit, so why risk it?Ask Ricky. His record breaking steal was of 3b. 

 

I have been in the camp of batting Buck lead off all along. This year, his hitting has improved to the point where the Twins should do it. Hit Jorge 2nd and Cruz, Rosario, Cron and Keps. Buck is our best baserunner. He would be at the top of my lineup if I were coach. 

Your first PP criticizes the idea of creating a pattern that opponents can plan for. Exactly my point - If you get them pitching out ever first pitch, that swings the odds in favor of the batter, so now they're playing your game, not theirs. Of course Buxton can fake steals! That fact that they must respect his fakes is what makes the whole drama so fun to watch. I do like your idea that Buxton would signal the hitter when he's going to go. If I'm the hitter, I grin and give him a big thumbs up before every pitch. I might even say, "You go, buddy, Whenever you want, Byron," etc. There is no rule against a player lying to his opponent. 

 

2nd PP. Rules of thumb like 'Don't make the first or third out at 3rd base' are coined as guides for average baseball players. Buxton's speed changes the odds so much, you need to toss out the usual wisdom. Again, the threat of Buxton stealing, along with the hilarious gamesmanship, would be wonderful to watch, and would present opponents with a maddening dilemma. 

 

3rd PP. I had no idea whether Buck would get better this season, but so far it looks like he has blossomed into a confident young superstar. Would I bat him first right now? Nope. Let him get nice and comfy with his stardom before you brighten his spotlight. I agree that he should bat first. Maybe sometime after mid season I'd try him there for a series, see how he handles it. He doesn't look emotionally fragile anymore, but it could be a 'fake it 'til you make it' situation. 

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#38 prouster

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Posted 22 April 2019 - 09:40 PM

Well, that was fun.
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#39 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 23 April 2019 - 04:07 AM

Bad jump, high fastball, throw right at his hip, and even with all of that, he was barely out.

33 ain’t bad, but no records. Oh well. Time to start another streak, Buck!
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#40 Doomtints

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Posted 23 April 2019 - 08:44 AM

News flash: Buxton is fast. :P

 

Also newsy: He can fall apart if moved higher in the batting order too soon.

 

Let him have his success at the bottom of the order for a few more weeks before throwing him back to reality. Yes he can without any doubt in my mind hit just as well higher in the order, but let him stay hot where he is for a while first.

 

I'd love for Buxton to hit at the top of the order. He would play better there than Polanco does. It's just too early to do that with him. He needs and deserves a long run of success before putting on the pressure.

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