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Article: Hello? Rochester... Please Send Help

fernando romero jake reed tyler duffey mike morin ryan eades
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#41 chpettit19

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 10:43 AM

 

The majority of starts in MLB last year were five and one third..... Pitching has changed.

 

That's a misleading stat. Yes, pitching has changed, but that's not totally why average innings per start is what it is. For 1 the Rays really throw the number off with their "opener" usage. They averaged just 3.9 innings per start, but that misleads as their actual starters were much better than that. Cleveland averaged over 6 innings per start because they have good starters. The problem with the Twins current pitching situation is that they built it to have starters who can go 6 and then have 3 lock down guys and 1 or 2 other guys who can fill in in their bullpen with just a couple random dudes to be the long and blow out guys. But their starters haven't nearly filled their role and it's put way more pressure on the guys who weren't supposed to be used often. When Berrios starts and then you can just get into a mix of Parker, May, and Rogers things look good. But when Odo and Gibson come up way short on expectations it forces Rocco to use guys in situations they weren't meant to be used in.

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#42 USAFChief

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 10:59 AM

 

That's a misleading stat. Yes, pitching has changed, but that's not totally why average innings per start is what it is. For 1 the Rays really throw the number off with their "opener" usage. They averaged just 3.9 innings per start, but that misleads as their actual starters were much better than that. Cleveland averaged over 6 innings per start because they have good starters. The problem with the Twins current pitching situation is that they built it to have starters who can go 6 and then have 3 lock down guys and 1 or 2 other guys who can fill in in their bullpen with just a couple random dudes to be the long and blow out guys. But their starters haven't nearly filled their role and it's put way more pressure on the guys who weren't supposed to be used often. When Berrios starts and then you can just get into a mix of Parker, May, and Rogers things look good. But when Odo and Gibson come up way short on expectations it forces Rocco to use guys in situations they weren't meant to be used in.

Every reliever, on every team, will end up pitching important innings. You can't just use the top 3 day after day and expect them to carry the load. Even if Odo and Gibson go 7, you still need bullpen coverage on those days, and every day the Twins play. Using only the top end in every close game is unworkable.

 

Good bullpens have multiple good arms, because all arms get used, and used in situations that matter.

 

Demanding more from the starters is a nice thought, but that was going to be difficult to achieve for this year's Twins team. However, adding bullpen arms was simple.

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#43 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 11:14 AM

 

Trevor May leads the league in several Statcast categories.He has the lowest Average Exit velocity against with 76.5MPH.He has the lowest hard hit% with 5.6% (only allowed one hit above 95MPH).His Barrels/Plate Appearance is 0.0%.

 

 

Between May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Parker it is clear that we have no need for Kimbrel or any other closer candidate. Our bullpen is fine. 

 

I'm with you on May. I'm a fan of Rogers and Parker has looked better from his first couple of shakey outings but the jury is still out. Hildenberger? Maybe, I'm still on the fence after last year.

 

But even if all four of those guys are good to great, there's always room for bullpen improvement, ask the A's last year.

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#44 chpettit19

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 11:17 AM

 

Every reliever, on every team, will end up pitching important innings. You can't just use the top 3 day after day and expect them to carry the load. Even if Odo and Gibson go 7, you still need bullpen coverage on those days, and every day the Twins play. Using only the top end in every close game is unworkable.

 

Good bullpens have multiple good arms, because all arms get used, and used in situations that matter.

 

Demanding more from the starters is a nice thought, but that was going to be difficult to achieve for this year's Twins team. However, adding bullpen arms was simple.

Let's start with 90 wins as our goal. Let's say we only get 6 innings out of our starters in all 90 of those games. That means we need 270 innings worth of bullpen usage in those games. If you have 4 guys who throw all of those innings they're all throwing 67.5 innings.

 

That's obviously a ridiculously perfect situation, but that's the plan you build for when you're a small to midmarket team because it's not sustainable to pay bullpen guys big money because they're too volatile. The argument I made in my post was you want 3 shut down type guys to lock down sure wins. Then you have 1 or 2 others are quite reliable. That's 4 or 5 guys. Yes, every guy in the pen will throw innings, but the plan is to use those 4 or 5 in the "important innings." 

 

Good bullpens do have multiple good arms, 3-5 of them. They don't have 8 guys that they expect to use regularly in high leverage situations. They have 3-5 and then pop some of those other few in there in the 6th or 7th in stretches where the team is in a bunch of close games. But that's only a few stretches of the season. Vasquez was brutal last night, yes. But to act like the bullpen is just collapsing right now is inaccurate. Harper, Hildy, and May haven't allowed runs yet. Rogers and Parker have allowed 1. That's 2 runs in 21+ innings. That's your 4 guys you're counting on at the end of games and 1 random guy. The expectation is that Romero will come up and be a 5th end of game guy. What else do you realistically want from a bullpen? This article and thread have people acting like the season is over because some random dude the team was never counting on came in and was absolutely brutal in 1 game. But in reality the bullpen is doing it's job. It's not doing the extra stuff the starters are forcing it to try to do.

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#45 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 11:20 AM

Trevor May leads the league in several Statcast categories. He has the lowest Average Exit velocity against with 76.5MPH. He has the lowest hard hit% with 5.6% (only allowed one hit above 95MPH). His Barrels/Plate Appearance is 0.0%.


Between May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Parker it is clear that we have no need for Kimbrel or any other closer candidate. Our bullpen is fine.


4 guys isn’t enough. They can’t all pitch every night there is a lead to protect.
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#46 SomeGuy

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 11:36 AM

 

I agree on 3 of those 4, but disagree that our bullpen is fine. We need depth. The problem is that to win games we are going to have to over pitch Rogers, May and Parker. Hildenberger is a depth guy - he's frankly not that good, lets in most of the runners he inherits, but he's good enough to be the # 6 or 7 guy in a 7 man bullpen. Good enough to be in MLB, not good enough to be an important cog in a contending team's bullpen. We only have 3 of those guys. 

 

We need 4 or 5quality BP arms PLUS 2 or 3 depth guys. We have 3 quality arms in May, Rogers and Parker, and 1 depth guy in Hildenberger IMHO. I think Odorizzi could be a "quality" BP arm and Perez a depth/maybe quality guy. Maybe Harper or Morin finishes off the group now, with Eades, Romero and/or Littel coming in a month or two for anyone who isn't effective or the inevitable injuries. 

 

Sooo, I would move Odo to the BP and leave Perez there, and send Vasquez down. Now we need two starters. If we're going to sign a FA, sign Kuechel on a 1 or 2 year deal (he now says he'll take that) for one guy. Bring up Stewart as the #5 starter. If no Kuechel or while he's building up arm strength, add Romero or Littel to the starting rotation. I'd vote Romero but I don't know where he is in terms of innings, etc. 

 

To me, the better plan to make the less effective starters into relievers where they may be more effective and take our chances with young starters. That's where we have some talent, not in the bullpen. 

Vasquez deserves more chances, hopefully we don't make a habit out of bringing in rookies with the bases loaded to face the top of the order. That was not a good choice in hindsight.I'm not giving up on De Jong after one bad inning either.

 

Pitching depth is a major strength for us this year.It's not front of the rotation/back of the bullpen depth but we have good depth.If Berrios, Pineda, and Gibson stay mostly healthy and pitch decent we have nothing to worry about. 

 

Hildenberger should be a fine bullpen piece.He has battled inconsistencies in his first 2 seasons but I am confident he will have a good year.

 

No signings, no trades (until July), this is our squad.Leave the rotation (with Perez) the way it is until an injury occurs.Our offense will be great and our pitching will be fine (average).

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#47 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:02 PM

No reason to give up on Vasquez, but also no reason to have him learn on the job in MLB when we have a team that can contend. Let him learn more in AAA, he's spent almost no time there. Sending him down isn't giving up; it's actually helping him improve for a potential call up later. We have better options in Morin and Romero and better ones coming off the IL in Magill and Moya - guys who have proven they can get MLB hitters out (Reed may be toast). I can't see a good reason to keep Vasquez up when there appear to be better options. 

 

 

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#48 Thrylos

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:10 PM

 

Hildy just walked one guy last night, otherwise has been solid. 

 

And a 2R single for a total of -.120 WPA.He let 3 runs in and got one hitter out.Not sure in what kind of universe this is "solid"...

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#49 caninatl04

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:11 PM

Hi Seth;

I have questions as opposed to opinions:

1. You wrote: "The Twins wanted to call up Zack Littell last weekend but because the season was not yet ten days old, they were unable to." Might I ask why? Is it an IL thing?

2. "Following the game, he (DeYong)was returned to Rochester since he would be unable to pitch for the Twins for several days.
Is this because he threw 46 pitches?

3. I know you are being thorough, but Adams 6.49 ERA, Duffy at 4.56, Guilmet at 9.27 doesn't instill confidence. Seth, do think any of these could actually add value to the Twins?

4. I'd love to hear your opinion on Magill and / or Reed. Are they an improvement?

Finally, when the populous of earth decides to make me Emperor, I'll make you head of the Twins. What would you recommend about pitching?

4.

#50 jrod23

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:14 PM

Jake.Reed.He's not the end-all-be-all answer, but he deserves a freakin' shot.Going on 5 years from AA & AAA with solid numbers and no MLB opportunity is sickening.

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#51 darin617

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:18 PM

Reach out to Bud Norris & Jim Johnson. Both still unsigned and both have the ability to close if needed.


#52 bighat

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:20 PM

 

And a 2R single for a total of -.120 WPA.He let 3 runs in and got one hitter out.Not sure in what kind of universe this is "solid"...

 

I'll agree he was not so great last night. But he's had 5 other appearances and has been perfect. So you're willing to just give up on Hildy because of one bad outing? That's just so shortsighted, man.

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#53 Doomtints

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:22 PM

This isn't the first time Odorizzi had a lights out game but everything fell apart in an epic fashion.

 

Most of us complained that the previous d00d didn't know when to pull pitchers ... but I think even he would have pulled people sooner than this.

 

Baldell might be trying to be too nice. I suspect this will change after a few more games like this.

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#54 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:34 PM

 

Reach out to Bud Norris & Jim Johnson. Both still unsigned and both have the ability to close if needed.

 

The Nationals deal with Norris fell through because they feel he's at least a month away from contributing.

 

I'd pass on Johnson, he can't strike anyone out.


#55 VATwinsFan

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:36 PM

MLBtraderumors is saying Bud Norris' deal with the Nats fell through.


#56 Danchat

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:36 PM

Jake. Reed. He's not the end-all-be-all answer, but he deserves a freakin' shot. Going on 5 years from AA & AAA with solid numbers and no MLB opportunity is sickening.

Here, here!
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#57 spycake

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:37 PM

1. You wrote: "The Twins wanted to call up Zack Littell last weekend but because the season was not yet ten days old, they were unable to." Might I ask why? Is it an IL thing?


Players who are optioned to the minors have to spend at least 10 days there (or the first 10 days of the season, in this case) before they are eligible to return to MLB. (With the exception if someone goes on the DL/IL.)
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#58 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:47 PM

 

And a 2R single for a total of -.120 WPA.He let 3 runs in and got one hitter out.Not sure in what kind of universe this is "solid"...

Agreed. Not solid. Let's face it. Hildenberger started out hot, hitters saw him a few times, and he cooled off. Since then, he's been a decent reliever who can be a back end bullpen guy. He tends to let inherited runners score and he's not a guy we can regularly put in late inning crucial situations. He's more of a depth guy - the number 5, 6 or 7 BP guy in a 7 or 8 man bullpen. He's fine to keep (especially considering our other options) but he can't be one of the the top 4-5 guys to carry this bullpen, at least not now. 

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#59 ScrapTheNickname

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:54 PM

 

Last night, we needed a fireman. We didn't have one unfortunately...

 

Kimbrel would certainly have his bad moments, and even if he signed now, he woudln't be ready for a few weeks at best... Regardless, we needed him last night. 

 

We should have signed him. We still could... 

A fireman who goes to the scene then wets his pants is not the answer but it does mean his intentions were good.

Edited by ScrapTheNickname, 11 April 2019 - 12:54 PM.


#60 gowen21

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 01:01 PM

Love Rocco so far, but last night I didn't agree with how he used his bullpen. Bringing in an inexperienced guy with the bases loaded in a 1-0 game would have been my last choice. He should have been used the way de Jong was the night before, in a game that was out of reach, or at least in a situation with empty bases. Not being able to throw strikes is a sign of nerves...

 

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