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Article: NYM 9, MIN 6: Forever of a 5th Inning

jake odorizzi mitch garver
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#41 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 10:37 AM

Before we all collectively freak out:

1.) We had a winning road trip against mostly competitive NL teams, where we couldn't use Cruz.

2.) We have a winnable homestead coming up against Detroit and Toronto; no reason we can't win 4 or 5 of those games.

3.) It's April

4.) It's not Rocco's fault that Vazquez couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, or a misjudgment to bring him in. After all, Odorizzi did walk the pitcher.

Agree with most of this. Just a nitpick— there was no reason Baldelli couldn’t use Cruz. Before one of the Mets games in an interview with Provus, Baldelli said Cruz played outfield in spring training, made some good plays, and that he (Baldelli) “wouldn’t hesitate” to put Cruz in the outfield in this series. Yet it didn’t happen. Maybe that’s just typical manager doublespeak, but still. They did ok without him after all.

Also, that final at bat last night would have been perfect for using Cruz. If Cruz gets on base, Kepler is the tying run.

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco, 11 April 2019 - 10:43 AM.

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#42 mikelink45

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 10:44 AM

Did I miss something?Why Adrianza as PH instead of Nelson Cruz?Help me understand. Does Cruz have an allergy towards NL parks?Is Adrianza developing a new reputation despite his 125 BA?Yes a HR would not have given us the lead, but it would have made us a lot closer and the top of the lineup was coming up. 

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#43 Sconnie

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 11:18 AM

 

They wanted to pinch hit for him in the top of 5th because there would have been a runner on base in a 1 run game. And in the 6th he would have been the leadoff batter too, another good spot to pinch hit. Not just because they wanted Odorizzi out of the game.

Remember, Odorizzi had allowed only 1 baserunner through 4 innings, on 47 pitches. Mets only had 5-6-7 due up, and if batters reached, it only meant the 8-9 spots would come up, and we knew the Mets weren't going to pinch hit for Thor either.

Seems absolutely reasonable to expect Odorizzi to get through that 5th, and if he can't get 8-9 out, pull him for the top of the lineup. We even managed to pull him before a run scored! The problem was not so much *when* we pulled Odorizzi, but *who* we brought in to replace him.

Odorizzi has career 881 innings pitched over 164 appearances (3 of them relief) for an average of 5 1/3 innings per appearance. 

 

Betting on Odorizzi to complete 5 innings seems high risk, low reward. Then "when" to me mattered that he was left in to load the bases. It was very clear he lost it right away.  


#44 KirbyDome89

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 11:55 AM

I'll take 6-4 too but their record shouldn't mask the issues the pitching staff has had to start the year. There were plenty of posters pointing out that a rotation with a penchant for short starts and a below average bullpen could be a serious problem. Perez doesn't look like he belongs on a major league roster, let alone the starting rotation right now, and Odorizzi continues to implode after getting through a lineup twice. I guess we can cross our fingers and hope that Pineda stays healthy/effective and Gibson finds the same stride he did last year. 

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#45 rghrbek

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:06 PM

I agree with Doc and others, I am not ready to move Jake to the bullpen.  I think he can be a solid 5th starter.  We will see.  Perez, however I am concerned about.  He has not been stretched out yet, and throws hard, but control is going to be a big issue.  We did not pay much for him, but once we give him some starts and it's more of the same, I would look at Alberto, or Gonsalvez being brought in.

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#46 Doomtints

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:28 PM

CBS Sports published an interesting article about the epic inning before the game was even over.

 

https://www.cbssport...-without-a-hit/

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#47 spycake

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 12:31 PM

Odorizzi has career 881 innings pitched over 164 appearances (3 of them relief) for an average of 5 1/3 innings per appearance.

Betting on Odorizzi to complete 5 innings seems high risk, low reward. Then "when" to me mattered that he was left in to load the bases. It was very clear he lost it right away.


That average is dragged down by starts like his Philadelphia start, where he struggled out of the gate.

What's his average IP when he retires 13 of the first 14 batters on 51 pitches, like he did last night? This wasn't some situation where a guy is laboring leading up to the 5th. Nothing egregiously wrong with his 5th inning leash last night, and in fact it could have worked out just fine with a different choice of reliever.

#48 bighat

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 01:52 PM

Tomorrow's game PPD already it appears. Looks like we'll have to wait until Saturday to redeem ourselves.

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#49 h2oface

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 02:25 PM

 

CBS Sports published an interesting article about the epic inning before the game was even over.

 

https://www.cbssport...-without-a-hit/

 

How about that graphic of Vasquez's pitch locations!


#50 mattk

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 02:59 PM

From Bill Ladson on MLB.com:

But things started to unravel after Mets left fielder Jeff McNeil was thrown out after trying to score on a wild pitch. Odorizzi walked pitcher Noah Syndergaard to reload the bases.

“It was an unfortunate time for that to happen, I guess,” Odorizzi said. “It’s not too often that you see something like that happen. I’ll be happy to get back to American League-style baseball. I can tell you that much.”

 

I guess if Odorizzi got to pitch to the DH, he wouldn't have walked him? Odorizzi's inability to pitch past 4 or 5 innings, and therefore, his ineffectiveness as a starter is obvious to those willing to see. I'm really disappointed the Twins stuck with him for another year. Probably will be stuck with him the remainder of the season.

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#51 SomeGuy

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 03:24 PM

At what point do you as a coach tell Astudillo that he needs cut down on swinging outside the strike zone?At 51.3% he swings at more balls out of the zone than he doesn't.I don't see how he will sustain his success without laying off more pitches. Looking at heat maps of his average/pitch and slugging/pitch at each part of the zone and it is like you would expect, he doesn't make hard contact when he swings out of the zone.

 

Take last night for example 3 of his 4 outs were on pitches out of the zone.All 3 were routine ground balls.As a pitcher the strategy has to become don't throw anything in the zone and let your defense play the weak grounders.

 

I'm not trying to rag on him, I think he could be really good.100% contact rate on pitches IN the strike zone when he swings (83.8% of the time).

 

He does have the lowest exit velocity on the Twins and is all the way down at 290th in MLB.I think if he could boost his walks rates or make pitchers throw more strikeshe would help this and be a beast in on base%.

 

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#52 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 03:32 PM

 

At what point do you as a coach tell Astudillo that he needs cut down on swinging outside the strike zone?At 51.3% he swings at more balls out of the zone than he doesn't.I don't see how he will sustain his success without laying off more pitches. Looking at heat maps of his average/pitch and slugging/pitch at each part of the zone and it is like you would expect, he doesn't make hard contact when he swings out of the zone.

 

Take last night for example 3 of his 4 outs were on pitches out of the zone.All 3 were routine ground balls.As a pitcher the strategy has to become don't throw anything in the zone and let your defense play the weak grounders.

 

I'm not trying to rag on him, I think he could be really good.100% contact rate on pitches IN the strike zone when he swings (83.8% of the time).

 

He does have the lowest exit velocity on the Twins and is all the way down at 290th in MLB.I think if he could boost his walks rates or make pitchers throw more strikeshe would help this and be a beast in on base%.

 

I agree with all of this.

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#53 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 03:44 PM

At what point do you as a coach tell Astudillo that he needs cut down on swinging outside the strike zone? At 51.3% he swings at more balls out of the zone than he doesn't. I don't see how he will sustain his success without laying off more pitches. Looking at heat maps of his average/pitch and slugging/pitch at each part of the zone and it is like you would expect, he doesn't make hard contact when he swings out of the zone.

Take last night for example 3 of his 4 outs were on pitches out of the zone. All 3 were routine ground balls. As a pitcher the strategy has to become don't throw anything in the zone and let your defense play the weak grounders.

I'm not trying to rag on him, I think he could be really good. 100% contact rate on pitches IN the strike zone when he swings (83.8% of the time).

He does have the lowest exit velocity on the Twins and is all the way down at 290th in MLB. I think if he could boost his walks rates or make pitchers throw more strikes he would help this and be a beast in on base%.



I guess I’d wait until he actually swings and misses at strike 3.

#54 Kelly Vance

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 05:58 PM

Odo should be an opener from now on


#55 Kelly Vance

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 05:59 PM

 

Odo should be an opener from now on

Kel, that is all he is now

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#56 ashbury

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 08:02 PM

Kel, that is all he is now

I keep telling myself that no one cares to know my inner dialogue, but I still can't help doing it.

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#57 Aerodeliria

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 09:55 PM

"Seems absolutely reasonable to expect Odorizzi to get through that 5th, and if he can't get 8-9 out, pull him for the top of the lineup. We even managed to pull him before a run scored! The problem was not so much *when* we pulled Odorizzi, but *who* we brought in to replace him."

 

Exactly!


#58 SomeGuy

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Posted 12 April 2019 - 07:35 AM

 

I guess I’d wait until he actually swings and misses at strike 3.

Its not about strike outs.Its about the weak contact he makes outside the zone.He has to realize that with more 3 ball counts he will see more meatballs that he can drive.

 

It is extremely impressive that he can put the bat on the ball no matter where it is but it would still be better to take a ball here and there.Since he is primarily a catcher I have to believe he knows these balls are out of the strike zone.


#59 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 April 2019 - 07:43 AM

3 baserunners (after a leadoff out) and the pitcher due up isn't that different.

The key is who you warm up and bring in.


Exactly!!! I am so past the idea of a structured bullpen. This saving your top arms for the 8th and 9th is 1980’s thinking.

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#60 jorgenswest

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Posted 12 April 2019 - 04:26 PM

It isn’t that easy to know when to warm up Rogers early in the game. Do you start warming him at the start of the inning? After two base runners? A run scored? At any of those times they may also have survived the inning. It is going to take a few batters to be ready. Maybe they get out if it. Do you them warm him up again later in the game?

Increasing the warm ups is going to wear in the arm. If they warm him up they really need to get him in instead of sitting and warming up a few innings later. Absent of hindsight it is really hard to know the best time. You always need to look ahead two or three batters.
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