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So....Time to make a call to Kimbrel?

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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 04:45 PM

To be clear, I would happily prorate a $20m one year deal for Kimbrel. I’m simply not that interested in a three year deal for a reliever like him.
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#42 spycake

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 07:13 PM

Very well said.
Where our budget "should" be is a legitimate debate. But the fact is that we have a budget, and as long as we do, a contract like that to a solid, but not spectacular relief pitcher is not a good allocation of it, IMO.


I'm not necessarily endorsing Kimbrel at that price, but his career seems closer to spectacular than solid, no?

#43 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 08:21 PM

I'm not necessarily endorsing Kimbrel at that price, but his career seems closer to spectacular than solid, no?


I meant where he'd be for this contract. His earlier career does little for his next team.
As posted by someone else, he's topped just 1.5 WAR once in the last 4 years.
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#44 Otwins

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 09:14 PM

What would it take to get Will Smith from San Fran? They need outfielders

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#45 Danchat

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 09:45 PM

 

What would it take to get Will Smith from San Fran? They need outfielders

I imagine we'd be sending them minor leaguers, so I'm not sure if their current need would factor into that. Or at least I was under the impression that they aren't going to be very competitive this year.

 

But yes, a trade for somebody like Smith would be great. I'd be fine if they dipped into our pool of prospects and shipped some out for a good reliever.

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#46 by jiminy

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 11:24 PM

Yeah--and ask about Bumgarner while they're at it!


#47 Brandon

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 12:56 AM

 

The Twins are at $121M in Salary.$17M/YR would put them at $136M which is at the very top of what teams with equivalent revenue spend.Next year …

 

They will lose 3 starting SPs next year that collectively make $25,625,000.Replacing two of them will cost more than the current salary level.

 

Berrios, becomes arbitration eligible and will get a sizeable raise.

 

Rosario , Sano, Rodgers, Buxton, and May all likely get a significant bump.

 

Polanco and Kepler contracts increase by $500K each or an incremental $1M.

 

I would guess we are looking at roughly $20M in arbitration increases or more if these players perform the way we hope or good enough to make us contenders. They are also going to need to replace Cron and Schoop. Cron could be retained but that would involve an increase as well assuming he plays well enough they want to retain him.Is there an infielder that will be ready to replace Schoop next year?Maybe. They only place we are certain to reduce payroll is catcher with Castro’s contract expiring.

 

If you are a very short-term focused manager who ignores the future, Kimbrel is the move you make. If you are trying to build sustained success, Kimbrel is not an effective or measured utilization of payroll. Kimbrel has produced 1.5 WAR or greater once in the past 4 years and he is about to turn 31.Certainly not over the hill but he is at the point where performance tends to begin declining.Along term deal makes no sense and there will be better places to spend $18M/yr with a much better chance of upside in terms of production.

 

Next Season we can replace Cron, Schoop, Castro, and Odorizzi and Pineda, with our own minor leaguers.That is almost 40 million off the books.almost forgot 8.5 million for Reed also comes off the books.  

 

The rotation will have Berrios, Mejia, (I think we will resign Gibson) pick up Martin Perez option and bring up a starter from the minors.  

 

Cron can be replaced by either Rooker, Killeroff, or Gonzales to start the season.

 

Schoop can be replaced by Gordon or Gonzales, then by Polanco when Lewis is ready to come up and play SS.  

 

Castro's replacements are already in the big leagues.  

 

Of the replacements above only our rotation seems a little scary.  

Edited by Brandon, 15 April 2019 - 12:58 AM.


#48 killertwinfan

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 05:48 AM

Blake Parker has me pining for the Fernando Rodney days.I would do just about anything to get him out of that role.  


#49 USAFChief

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 06:56 AM

 

The Twins are at $121M in Salary.$17M/YR would put them at $136M which is at the very top of what teams with equivalent revenue spend.Next year …

 

They will lose 3 starting SPs next year that collectively make $25,625,000.Replacing two of them will cost more than the current salary level.

 

Berrios, becomes arbitration eligible and will get a sizeable raise.

 

Rosario , Sano, Rodgers, Buxton, and May all likely get a significant bump.

 

Polanco and Kepler contracts increase by $500K each or an incremental $1M.

 

I would guess we are looking at roughly $20M in arbitration increases or more if these players perform the way we hope or good enough to make us contenders. They are also going to need to replace Cron and Schoop. Cron could be retained but that would involve an increase as well assuming he plays well enough they want to retain him.Is there an infielder that will be ready to replace Schoop next year?Maybe. They only place we are certain to reduce payroll is catcher with Castro’s contract expiring.

 

If you are a very short-term focused manager who ignores the future, Kimbrel is the move you make. If you are trying to build sustained success, Kimbrel is not an effective or measured utilization of payroll. Kimbrel has produced 1.5 WAR or greater once in the past 4 years and he is about to turn 31.Certainly not over the hill but he is at the point where performance tends to begin declining.Along term deal makes no sense and there will be better places to spend $18M/yr with a much better chance of upside in terms of production.

That 121 includes Hughes and Morrison, who also come off the books in 2020.

 

As to the rest of this, If the goal is to never win a world series, but lock in a yearly operating profit, you have a great point.

 

That's not my interest, although I agree it's probably the Pohlads'.

 

 

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#50 spycake

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:32 AM

 

I meant where he'd be for this contract. His earlier career does little for his next team.
As posted by someone else, he's topped just 1.5 WAR once in the last 4 years.

That's by fWAR. Of course, that one season was a whopping 3.2 fWAR, and it was as recent as 2017. And he's never been below 1.2 fWAR which is a pretty solid floor for a reliever.

 

By bWAR, he was still at 2.3 last year, and 3.6 in 2017.

 

He's not getting younger, obviously, but he only turns 31 next month, so it's possible that 1.2 fWAR floor / 3.2 fWAR ceiling is still in play for a couple more years.

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#51 spycake

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:33 AM

 

That 121 includes Hughes and Morrison, who also come off the books in 2020.

Morrison is technically off the books already, it was just a $1 mil option buyout. It probably should be considered part of the ledger for 2018, but I understand a few sources report it for 2019.


#52 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:42 AM

Woof. No. You're basically throwing away half of one year.

And then you have a closer for 2.5 years at $16m per.

Yeah, okay. No.

Go get Keuchel at that rate and I don't really want Keuchel, either.


How do you suggest they fix the pitching, if not Keuchel? Because I doubt there is a good, young, under control pitcher, available in trade

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#53 spycake

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:55 AM

 

The Twins are at $121M in Salary.$17M/YR would put them at $136M which is at the very top of what teams with equivalent revenue spend.Next year …

 

They will lose 3 starting SPs next year that collectively make $25,625,000.Replacing two of them will cost more than the current salary level.

 

Berrios, becomes arbitration eligible and will get a sizeable raise.

 

Rosario , Sano, Rodgers, Buxton, and May all likely get a significant bump.

 

Polanco and Kepler contracts increase by $500K each or an incremental $1M.

 

I would guess we are looking at roughly $20M in arbitration increases or more if these players perform the way we hope or good enough to make us contenders. They are also going to need to replace Cron and Schoop. Cron could be retained but that would involve an increase as well assuming he plays well enough they want to retain him.Is there an infielder that will be ready to replace Schoop next year?Maybe. They only place we are certain to reduce payroll is catcher with Castro’s contract expiring.

I'm not sure your numbers add up here.

 

In the current market, it seems doubtful that it will cost more than $25 mil AAV to sign two starters of the Odorizzi/Gibson/Pineda mold.

 

As middle relievers, Rogers and May will probably get relatively modest raises in arbitration. Parker too. Maybe a mil or two each, at most?

 

Berrios, Rosario, Buxton, and Sano could get larger raises, but that group probably won't go up by more than $10 mil or so collectively in 2020.

 

I'm not sure where you're looking, but Polanco's 2020 salary is identical to 2019, and Kepler only goes up by $250k.

 

Assuming we pick up Cruz's option, in addition to potential SP savings, we'll also be shedding Reed ($8.5 mil), Castro ($8), Schoop ($7.5), Perez ($4 with buyout). Cron might not be worth tendering coming off $4.8 mil either.

 

Plus reinforcements like Romero, Gordon, Kirilloff, Lewis, Graterol, Alcala, Jax, Rooker, etc. in the high minors, we'll be looking to break in a lot of cheap internal options too, so we don't necessarily need to sign FA replacements for all of those departures.

 

I'm not saying we'll have tons of money to play with, but it doesn't seem like we will be too limited either.

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#54 nicksaviking

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:55 AM

 

How do you suggest they fix the pitching, if not Keuchel? Because I doubt there is a good, young, under control pitcher, available in trade

 

If you're going to use a pitcher who's going to make us watch Sano and Polanco get half of his outs for him you might as well just call up Kohl Stewart to do it.

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#55 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:01 AM

If you're going to use a pitcher who's going to make us watch Sano and Polanco get half of his outs for him you might as well just call up Kohl Stewart to do it.


In all seriousness, you look at what Keuchel has done at the major league level, and think Stewart will do that this year? It's possible, but likely? Because if you think so, then you think he's better than all but one or two of the current pitchers on this roster....

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#56 spycake

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:07 AM

 

there will be better places to spend $18M/yr with a much better chance of upside in terms of production.

Really? Notably better in the very near future? Can you cite any names?

 

Keep in mind, while there may be some interesting names slated for FA next winter, it's not just a matter of cost -- there's also availability. There's no guarantee those guys will even hit FA or that we will be the top/preferred bidder (or frankly that they'll still be productive/healthy by then).

 

Also, there's the matter of 2019. 2019 is shaping up to be a bit of an opportunity year for the Twins, with Cleveland suffering some bad luck right now. Planning to sign a guy this coming offseason won't help for 2019. Even waiting for the 2019 trade deadline (again, no guarantee that guys will be available or that you'll be able to land them), any deadline deals will only give us 2 months benefit, as opposed to 5 months right now. (Not to mention the prospect cost in deadline trades, as opposed to just cash -- you're probably not getting a reliever with ~3 WAR upside for less than a top prospect at the deadline.)

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#57 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:13 AM

To build on this, the free agents the twins sign won't be SS, OF, or catcher. If Sano is healthy, that scratches either third or first of the list also.

So, the list of free agents they would be interested in is second base, one of third or first, and pitching...... Are there really that many good ones available next year? I mean, the people saying just wait weren't exactly encouraging this off season, because the pitchers were too old, or too expensive,or not good enough.... But now those same posters are saying that the next class will be different?
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#58 spycake

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:28 AM

 

If you're going to use a pitcher who's going to make us watch Sano and Polanco get half of his outs for him you might as well just call up Kohl Stewart to do it.

Based on his K% and GB% last year, Keuchel got ~40% of his outs on the ground, and obviously it would be smaller just looking at the left side of the infield.

 

Berrios was ~28%. That difference is like 2 ground ball outs per game (again, total, not just left side). Keuchel and Berrios had basically the same ERA/FIP/xFIP last year, so it's not like Houston was gobbling up balls in play for Keuchel at a significantly greater success rate than the Twins for Berrios either.

 

And there's no rule you have to play Sano at 3B, particularly not when Keuchel starts and when Cron is your regular 1B.

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#59 Major League Ready

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:34 AM

 

I'm not sure your numbers add up here.

 

In the current market, it seems doubtful that it will cost more than $25 mil AAV to sign two starters of the Odorizzi/Gibson/Pineda mold.

 

As middle relievers, Rogers and May will probably get relatively modest raises in arbitration. Parker too. Maybe a mil or two each, at most?

 

Berrios, Rosario, Buxton, and Sano could get larger raises, but that group probably won't go up by more than $10 mil or so collectively in 2020.

 

I'm not sure where you're looking, but Polanco's 2020 salary is identical to 2019, and Kepler only goes up by $250k.

 

Assuming we pick up Cruz's option, in addition to potential SP savings, we'll also be shedding Reed ($8.5 mil), Castro ($8), Schoop ($7.5), Perez ($4 with buyout). Cron might not be worth tendering coming off $4.8 mil either.

 

Plus reinforcements like Romero, Gordon, Kirilloff, Lewis, Graterol, Alcala, Jax, Rooker, etc. in the high minors, we'll be looking to break in a lot of cheap internal options too, so we don't necessarily need to sign FA replacements for all of those departures.

 

I'm not saying we'll have tons of money to play with, but it doesn't seem like we will be too limited either.

 

You have a point about the starting pitching. My mindset was that they would need to sign a Mortonsen / Happ type free agent SPs because anything less was not going to get us into contention but you are right that 2 Odorizzi's would not cost in excess of $25M.

 

I think Rogers will get a decent bump if he continues to perform close to as he has the last half of 18 and the start of this year.

 

Our basic difference in opinion is you see us shedding payroll and replacing it with MiLB talent.I definitely do not see that happening with more than 1 SP. Graterol, Alcala, Jax do not look to me like they are ready to contribute next year.Maybe Graterol if he has a great year.I think we need to sign two free Agent SPs to replace the exiting 3 SPs and they will be more expensive than the existing options if they are going to be good enough for us to contend.What SP prospect looks like he would be an improvement over what we have?

 

I also don't see a Schoop replacement that will be ready next year.

 

I did forget about Reed but they will have to spend money in the BP.I guess I just happen to agree with the 30 GMs who have felt that the cost and risk associated with Kimbrell could be better placed elsewhere.


#60 spycake

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:44 AM

 

To build on this, the free agents the twins sign won't be SS, OF, or catcher. If Sano is healthy, that scratches either third or first of the list also.

So, the list of free agents they would be interested in is second base, one of third or first, and pitching...... Are there really that many good ones available next year? I mean, the people saying just wait weren't exactly encouraging this off season, because the pitchers were too old, or too expensive,or not good enough.... But now those same posters are saying that the next class will be different?

Good point. Here's a list of upcoming free agents (note that it hasn't been updated since February, so extension guys like Goldschmidt, Bogaerts, Sale, Milokas, etc. still need to be taken off the list):

 

https://legacy.baseb...20-free-agents/

 

I guess we'd love to sign Rendon or Cole -- but even if they make it to FA, they're not just asking for a high AAV (and likely higher than Kimbrel or Keuchel), they're asking 6+ years too. And they likely have a bunch of teams bidding on them at those prices, including their current teams, and would seem to have no particular reason to prefer coming to Minnesota.

 

After that, there's Bumgarner, I suppose, but not a lot else that strikes me as a better investment than Kimbrel or Keuchel if they are sign-able at around 3/45 right now.

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