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So....Time to make a call to Kimbrel?

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#21 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 05:25 AM

Keuchel has an option left. With 5+ years service time, we'd need his consent to use it, but it should be pretty straightforward to get him a couple minor league starts if/when he signs. The Braves optioned Ervin Santana with his consent to begin the 2014 season, to make 1 start at AAA, after he signed late (March 12, about the same point as Lance Lynn in 2018)

(As an aside, we could have done the same with Lynn, as he has 2 option years left -- although I feel like his late start was perhaps more of a convenient excuse than the primary driver of his 2018 issues.)

For players without minor league options, it would be a little trickier -- you'd need to make it a IL/rehab thing, and the league may not like that. Or you could make it a minor league contract with a verbal promise to promote him soon, like Ervin signed with the White Sox this year -- although the league might not like a ~$15 mil "minor league contract"!


Late in Roger Clemens’ career I seem to recall him signing very late. Like into May late. I don’t recall what he did though as far as getting ready for the season.

#22 spycake

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 06:23 AM

Late in Roger Clemens’ career I seem to recall him signing very late. Like into May late. I don’t recall what he did though as far as getting ready for the season.


Clemens had a few minor league starts -- and this article says he was indeed on a minor league contract to begin with:

http://www.espn.com/...tory?id=2862088

#23 spycake

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 06:27 AM

Via MLBTR this morning:

https://www.mlbtrade...-kimbrel-3.html

According to Bowden, agent Dave Meter not only set out in search of a six-year, $120MM for Kimbrel, but has continued to demand a record-seeking deal this spring. Bowden claims that, “even as late as March,” the Kimbrel camp “was still seeking a five-year pact in the $100 million range.”
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#24 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 06:38 AM

Via MLBTR this morning:

https://www.mlbtrade...-kimbrel-3.html

According to Bowden, agent Dave Meter not only set out in search of a six-year, $120MM for Kimbrel, but has continued to demand a record-seeking deal this spring. Bowden claims that, “even as late as March,” the Kimbrel camp “was still seeking a five-year pact in the $100 million range.”


So many people want the Twins to sign him now, but can you imagine the vitriol there would be towards that contract later? That's only 3 million per year less than Mauer, and he'd overwhelmingly likely be much less productive than Joe was during the latter years of his deal.
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#25 bighat

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 07:27 AM

 

Via MLBTR this morning:

https://www.mlbtrade...-kimbrel-3.html

According to Bowden, agent Dave Meter not only set out in search of a six-year, $120MM for Kimbrel, but has continued to demand a record-seeking deal this spring. Bowden claims that, “even as late as March,” the Kimbrel camp “was still seeking a five-year pact in the $100 million range.”

 

Came here to post this link. It looks like nothing has changed, Kimbrel isn't budging, and we can put any hope of the Twins signing him to bed for good.

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#26 howeda7

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 08:47 AM

Much rather have Kuechel. The bullpen is easier to fix at the deadline. 

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#27 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 09:29 AM

Via MLBTR this morning:

https://www.mlbtrade...-kimbrel-3.html

According to Bowden, agent Dave Meter not only set out in search of a six-year, $120MM for Kimbrel, but has continued to demand a record-seeking deal this spring. Bowden claims that, “even as late as March,” the Kimbrel camp “was still seeking a five-year pact in the $100 million range.”


That was March. It’s April 13. The longer he goes unsigned, the lower his demands will be.

#28 gman

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 10:37 AM

Looks like not just the Twins, but nobody wants him at that price. At this point its easier to foresee a 1 year deal in the 10-12 mil range.

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#29 spycake

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 12:26 PM

That was March. It’s April 13. The longer he goes unsigned, the lower his demands will be.


Sure, but evidence suggests it's not meaningfully lower yet.
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#30 spycake

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 05:40 PM

Ken Rosenthal on Twitter: "Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel continues to seek a deal he believes to be fair and in the range of two recent free-agent relievers, Wade Davis (3 years, $52M) and Zack Britton (3/$39M), sources tell The Athletic."

 


#31 twins_89

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 06:36 PM

 

Ken Rosenthal on Twitter: "Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel continues to seek a deal he believes to be fair and in the range of two recent free-agent relievers, Wade Davis (3 years, $52M) and Zack Britton (3/$39M), sources tell The Athletic."

 

 

I'd be ecstatic if the Twins could get Kimbrel for 3 years/$45M-$50M. Adding Kimbrel to Rogers, Parker, May, and Hildenberger would take a roughly average bullpen and turn it into a strength.

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#32 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 08:26 PM

Ken Rosenthal on Twitter: "Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel continues to seek a deal he believes to be fair and in the range of two recent free-agent relievers, Wade Davis (3 years, $52M) and Zack Britton (3/$39M), sources tell The Athletic."


That’s way less than 6 years, $120 mil.
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#33 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 April 2019 - 10:46 PM

 

I'd be ecstatic if the Twins could get Kimbrel for 3 years/$45M-$50M. Adding Kimbrel to Rogers, Parker, May, and Hildenberger would take a roughly average bullpen and turn it into a strength.

Woof. No. You're basically throwing away half of one year. 

 

And then you have a closer for 2.5 years at $16m per.

 

Yeah, okay. No.

 

Go get Keuchel at that rate and I don't really want Keuchel, either.

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#34 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 12:32 AM

 

Woof. No. You're basically throwing away half of one year. 

 

And then you have a closer for 2.5 years at $16m per.

 

Yeah, okay. No.

 

Go get Keuchel at that rate and I don't really want Keuchel, either.

 

Yeah, I'm not terribly interested in either... Keuchel does almost nothing of me. And Kimbrel for more than 1 year? No thanks.

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#35 USAFChief

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 08:49 AM

Kimbrel for 3 years is a very reasonable gamble and an obvious asset in a pen that needs assets.

And you're not throwing away a half year, he would be here by early May at the latest.
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#36 Major League Ready

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 09:03 AM

The Twins are at $121M in Salary.$17M/YR would put them at $136M which is at the very top of what teams with equivalent revenue spend.Next year …

 

They will lose 3 starting SPs next year that collectively make $25,625,000.Replacing two of them will cost more than the current salary level.

 

Berrios, becomes arbitration eligible and will get a sizeable raise.

 

Rosario , Sano, Rodgers, Buxton, and May all likely get a significant bump.

 

Polanco and Kepler contracts increase by $500K each or an incremental $1M.

 

I would guess we are looking at roughly $20M in arbitration increases or more if these players perform the way we hope or good enough to make us contenders. They are also going to need to replace Cron and Schoop. Cron could be retained but that would involve an increase as well assuming he plays well enough they want to retain him.Is there an infielder that will be ready to replace Schoop next year?Maybe. They only place we are certain to reduce payroll is catcher with Castro’s contract expiring.

 

If you are a very short-term focused manager who ignores the future, Kimbrel is the move you make. If you are trying to build sustained success, Kimbrel is not an effective or measured utilization of payroll. Kimbrel has produced 1.5 WAR or greater once in the past 4 years and he is about to turn 31.Certainly not over the hill but he is at the point where performance tends to begin declining.Along term deal makes no sense and there will be better places to spend $18M/yr with a much better chance of upside in terms of production.

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#37 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 09:28 AM

The Twins are at $121M in Salary. $17M/YR would put them at $136M which is at the very top of what teams with equivalent revenue spend. Next year …

They will lose 3 starting SPs next year that collectively make $25,625,000. Replacing two of them will cost more than the current salary level.

Berrios, becomes arbitration eligible and will get a sizeable raise.

Rosario , Sano, Rodgers, Buxton, and May all likely get a significant bump.

Polanco and Kepler contracts increase by $500K each or an incremental $1M.

I would guess we are looking at roughly $20M in arbitration increases or more if these players perform the way we hope or good enough to make us contenders. They are also going to need to replace Cron and Schoop. Cron could be retained but that would involve an increase as well assuming he plays well enough they want to retain him. Is there an infielder that will be ready to replace Schoop next year? Maybe. They only place we are certain to reduce payroll is catcher with Castro’s contract expiring.

If you are a very short-term focused manager who ignores the future, Kimbrel is the move you make. If you are trying to build sustained success, Kimbrel is not an effective or measured utilization of payroll. Kimbrel has produced 1.5 WAR or greater once in the past 4 years and he is about to turn 31. Certainly not over the hill but he is at the point where performance tends to begin declining. Along term deal makes no sense and there will be better places to spend $18M/yr with a much better chance of upside in terms of production.


Very well said.
Where our budget "should" be is a legitimate debate. But the fact is that we have a budget, and as long as we do, a contract like that to a solid, but not spectacular relief pitcher is not a good allocation of it, IMO.
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#38 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 02:40 PM

Kimbrel for 3 years is a very reasonable gamble and an obvious asset in a pen that needs assets.

And you're not throwing away a half year, he would be here by early May at the latest.

I don’t have a lot of faith in guys who skip ST and part of the season to be in MLB-ready shape the moment they step on the field.
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#39 jud6312

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 03:27 PM

 

I don’t have a lot of faith in guys who skip ST and part of the season to be in MLB-ready shape the moment they step on the field.

Neither do I, but would he be as good as Parker even if he's not 100% ready to go?


#40 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 04:44 PM

Neither do I, but would he be as good as Parker even if he's not 100% ready to go?

That’s the real question in the short term. To answer the question... probably?