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Fun With Numbers 2019

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#341 amjgt

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 05:05 PM

3 teams have already crossed the 100 win mark. Two more have a very reasonable chance of doing so.

We're sitting at 96 wins with 6 games to go and we haven't clinched a playoff spot yet. If that's not evidence of tanking... well... I don't know what is.


To me this is like saying “if that’s not evidence of a juiced ball....”

Of course the ball is juiced and of course teams are tanking. No sane person is saying otherwise.
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#342 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 01:23 PM

Yuck, this one isn’t much fun for baseball fans around the league:

There are zero American League teams <8 games within .500.
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#343 Riverbrian

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 01:37 PM

 

It may not last long but as of right now... this very moment. 

 

The Twins are the only team to ever hit 300 team home runs in a single season.  

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#344 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 01:42 PM

 

It may not last long but as of right now... this very moment. 

 

The Twins are the only team to ever hit 300 team home runs in a single season.  

honestly, I think they should swing for the fences in every at bat the next 3 games... may as well get the record and keep it. 

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#345 USAFChief

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 02:06 PM

 

Yuck, this one isn’t much fun for baseball fans around the league:

There are zero American League teams <8 games within .500.

Boston? Texas?

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#346 Vanimal46

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 02:07 PM

honestly, I think they should swing for the fences in every at bat the next 3 games... may as well get the record and keep it.


Isn't that what they've been doing all season?
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#347 Dantes929

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 02:22 PM

As of right now, the Twins have 12 pitchers on the roster with less than a 4 ERA. Most are comfortably with in 4. By contrast the 87 Twins had 2 pitchers less than 4 and one was at 3.94. .91 team had 6. I expect and kind of hope that Harper is the only one among the 12 that does not make the post season roster. 

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#348 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 03:04 PM

 

Boston? Texas?

They're both eight games over/under, which is why I used "<8".

 

Overall, the point is that every team is either good or bad. There is literally zero mediocrity in the AL, which makes for a lot of really bad baseball.

 

It's not good for the sport. Half of the fanbases in the AL are being actively encouraged to find other things to do with their time.

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#349 jkcarew

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 04:43 PM

 

As of right now, the Twins have 12 pitchers on the roster with less than a 4 ERA. Most are comfortably with in 4. By contrast the 87 Twins had 2 pitchers less than 4 and one was at 3.94. .91 team had 6. I expect and kind of hope that Harper is the only one among the 12 that does not make the post season roster. 

I like it. But I'm not willing to say the 2019 club is in better position...or even as 'good' position...pitching wise than either the '87 or '91 clubs were. Those clubs, in that era, didn't need depth. The needed a stud or two on the front and a stud on the back. They had that. And the studs didn't have to sustain long...if you managed to win 4 games before you lost 4, you were in the WS. The 2019 team is looking at thin starting pitching (even by 2019 standards)...and the need to patch together 7 wins...the 'depth guys' will need to come through repeatedly.

 

Of course, it's not like the '87 or '91 teams were favorites. And, it just means that if it happens in 2019, it will just be that much even more fun and even more amazing.


#350 jkcarew

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 05:12 PM

Number of runs scored for Twins post-season opponents..

 

1991 Blue Jays- 684

1991 Braves- 749

 

1987 Tigers-896

1987 Cardinals-798

 

2019 Yankees- 941 (projected)

2019 Astros-922

 

Looking for two series like the Tigers series in 1987.We simply bludgeon the opposition into submission. (No, while near the top of the league, Detroit's pitching wasn't nearly as dominant as Houston's has been this year. So, bludgeon the Yankees, and get lucky against the Astros!...or luckier yet, and not face the Astros.)

 

 


#351 Dantes929

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 09:18 PM

 

I like it. But I'm not willing to say the 2019 club is in better position...or even as 'good' position...pitching wise than either the '87 or '91 clubs were. Those clubs, in that era, didn't need depth. The needed a stud or two on the front and a stud on the back. They had that. And the studs didn't have to sustain long...if you managed to win 4 games before you lost 4, you were in the WS. The 2019 team is looking at thin starting pitching (even by 2019 standards)...and the need to patch together 7 wins...the 'depth guys' will need to come through repeatedly.

 

Of course, it's not like the '87 or '91 teams were favorites. And, it just means that if it happens in 2019, it will just be that much even more fun and even more amazing.

I know the path is different now and the 91 team was pretty legit but in 87 we were facing a guy that was 9-0 for the Tigers with a 1.5 ERAand then prime Jack Morris against aging Bert Blyleven.Tigers had the best record in baseball in the toughest division. Twins had the 9th best record.I was an optimist back then too and could imagine it all working out but I was the voice in the wilderness.Fans look back on that season and think they had a feelingthe Twins were special and could go all the way. Trust me. They didn't. Go back and read the Twins Daily pages back in 87 and you won't find any posts thinking they could beat Detroit. The main thing they had going for them was home field This team has less chance than 91 but a better chance than 87, especially of getting through the 1st round. Not 50/50 of getting past the Yankees, but maybe 40-60.

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#352 jkcarew

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Posted 27 September 2019 - 09:38 AM

 

This team has less chance than 91 but a better chance than 87, especially of getting through the 1st round. Not 50/50 of getting past the Yankees, but maybe 40-60.

I think I agree with this....the first-round part, anyway. Twins probably aren't any bigger underdogs against the 2019 Yankees than they were against the 1987 Tigers. Because of how dangerous the Twins 2019 offense is. And they only have to beat the Yankees three times vs the four they had to beat the Tigers.

 

But, mathematically, almost every post-season team...and certainly this Twins team...has a smaller probability of advancing to the WS than the Twins teams of '87/'91...simply because of the addition in 1994 of additional round/teams/games.

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#353 stringer bell

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Posted 27 September 2019 - 11:58 AM

The Twins had the better record than Toronto in the '91 ALCS. My recollection was that the series was booked as pretty close to even, despite the Twins winning four more games during the regular season.

 

Minnesota was definitely the underdog versus Detroit in '87. Doyle Alexander was acquired (for prospect John Smoltz) from Atlanta at the trade deadline and was unbeatable as a Tiger--in the regular season--Jack Morris was also at the top of his game. Somehow the Twins won that series, fairly easily.


#354 stringer bell

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Posted 27 September 2019 - 07:27 PM

Danny Santana has 28 homers and 80 RBI.

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#355 Nine of twelve

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Posted 28 September 2019 - 02:38 PM

 

They're both eight games over/under, which is why I used "<8".

 

Overall, the point is that every team is either good or bad. There is literally zero mediocrity in the AL, which makes for a lot of really bad baseball.

 

It's not good for the sport. Half of the fanbases in the AL are being actively encouraged to find other things to do with their time.

In 2017 there were nine teams in the AL with 75 to 85 wins. That may be too much mediocrity.


#356 insagt1

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Posted 28 September 2019 - 05:51 PM

Looking at the records there isn't much difference between Houston, NY, and the Twins. All 3 are over 100 wins. But realistically, there are lots of differences that the raw numbers don;t tell us.

The 3 top pitchers on the Astros could be the toughest trio of starters any team has had going into the post season. Doesn't guarantee success of course, but who wouldn't want these guys?

 

Twins and Yanks have over 300 HR's. Both teams have issues with their rotation. Both teams have had lots of key injuries. Both teams have decent bullpens. The problem is that 'factor' thats hard to explain. For some reason Twins can't beat the Yanks in post season. Even with different players...its almost a mental thing now. Whatever the Twins can do, Yanks do better...when its all on the line. I can hardly bear to watch the Yankees hit against us.

 

One of these days, this has to stop...like the Cubs and Red Sox droughts. Like the Bruins vs the Canadiens for so many years.Twins open on the road...and we all know that will be a HUGE advantage. So maybe thats an omen of sorts.

 

Hope so!


#357 Sconnie

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Posted 28 September 2019 - 06:26 PM

Looking at the records there isn't much difference between Houston, NY, and the Twins. All 3 are over 100 wins. But realistically, there are lots of differences that the raw numbers don;t tell us.
The 3 top pitchers on the Astros could be the toughest trio of starters any team has had going into the post season. Doesn't guarantee success of course, but who wouldn't want these guys?

Twins and Yanks have over 300 HR's. Both teams have issues with their rotation. Both teams have had lots of key injuries. Both teams have decent bullpens. The problem is that 'factor' thats hard to explain. For some reason Twins can't beat the Yanks in post season. Even with different players...its almost a mental thing now. Whatever the Twins can do, Yanks do better...when its all on the line. I can hardly bear to watch the Yankees hit against us.

One of these days, this has to stop...like the Cubs and Red Sox droughts. Like the Bruins vs the Canadiens for so many years. Twins open on the road...and we all know that will be a HUGE advantage. So maybe thats an omen of sorts.

Hope so!

I like the Twins chances at beating the Yankees. History is irrelevant here.

#358 jkcarew

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Posted 28 September 2019 - 07:38 PM

Danny Santana has 28 homers and 80 RBI.


I’ll take “what does every major leaguer who hit less than 29 home runs this season not want to hear” for $100, Alex.
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#359 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 28 September 2019 - 09:19 PM

In 2017 there were nine teams in the AL with 75 to 85 wins. That may be too much mediocrity.

Probably, but it meant there were nine AL fanbases engaged with baseball in September. I don’t want that every year but it’s better than what we’ve seen in 2019.
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#360 Nine of twelve

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Posted 29 September 2019 - 09:37 PM

Perhaps I should have done this as a blog but that's too much work. Besides, this is really where this belongs.

 

I suppose you could call this a power ranking. I wanted to quantify each team's performance over the entire regular season and compare that to other teams.

 

To do this as objectively as possible requires considering only games involving common opponents. Interleague games could not be considered because the opponents were not common to all teams. This also means AL teams could not be accurately ranked against NL teams and vice versa.

 

The number that I chose to generate for each team is the number of wins the team would have had in a 162-game season playing each of the other teams an equal number of games. Since 162 is not evenly divisible by 14 that means finding out how many games each team would have won playing each other team 11.57 (eleven and four sevenths) times. For example, the Twins won 14 of 19 games against Detroit this season. Based on that the Twins would be credited for 8.53 wins against Detroit. Similarly, the Twins won 5 of 7 games against Seattle, which translates into 8.27 wins.

 

Here are the results:

 

AL

 

1.Min 105.94

2.Hou104.91

3.Oak100.08

4.TB97.60

5.NY97.36

6.Bos 89.37

7.LA 85.50

8.Tex83.74

9.Cle82.96

10. Tor 74.92

11. Sea72.37

12. Chi 72.04

13. Bal 59.25

14. KC 52.22

15. Det48.87

 

 

NL

 

1.LA 110.96

2.Mil90.77

3.StL90.00

4.Was89.06

5.Atl 86.69

6.Phi83.36

7.Chi83.14

8.NY79.19

9.Cin76.85

10. Ari74.57

11. Col 73.76

12. SF72.18

13. SD68.47

14. Pit 65.60

15. Mia 57.32

 

 

I was surprised that our team had the highest number in the AL. My assumption was that since we played in the worst division in MLB that our win total would decrease when the records were balanced. However, this reveals that we did well against all teams, not only those in our division. This also shows that we should not consider our team to be underdogs in the postseason.

 

I'm sure there are many things that this reveals and I'm not going to try to make a detailed analysis, but the most obvious is that the Dodgers appear to be as dominant as everyone thought, probably even more so.

 

Edit: I had spaces to make the columns easier to see when I typed it. This didn't come through to the final outcome. Sorry I didn't know how to do this better.

Edited by Nine of twelve, 29 September 2019 - 09:42 PM.

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