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Article: Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

taylor rogers trevor may fernando romero
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#21 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 02:17 PM

This team doesn’t have a lights out closer and has (at best) two “lights out” relievers - May and Rogers.
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#22 SomeGuy

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 02:28 PM

 

He was, to that point, also ridiculously overworked. He made his 41st appearance on June 29 during team game number 78. He was on pace to appear in 85 games. Mike Marshall holds the team record with 90 appearances in 1979. “Everyday” Eddie had 83 in 1996 and JC Romero had 81 in 2002. No other Twin has ever been over 80.


Houston drastically cut his workload. That is what made him an elite reliever IMO.

Ryan Pressly says it was the Houston coaching and analytic dept. That's his opinion.

 

At the time of the trade he was averaging an appearance every 2 games (pace for 81 games)with the Twins and that did decrease to an appearance every 2.3 games with Houston (pace of 70.4 games) But by this theory his 2017 would have been much better when he totaled 57 appearances over the entire healthy season (64 appearances if you include his demotion to AAA).Or in 2016 when he had a similar appearances per game to his Houston use of 2.25 (72Games), he was not elite in either of these seasons. 

 

“Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.”

 

“Every team has an analytics department, and this is no knock on the Twins, but seeing the time [the Astros] put in and the scouting reports you’re given, it’s like, ‘Whoa.’ It’s a different level,” Pressly said. “You kind of see, ‘Wow, if I just pitch a little more to this percentage instead of that percentage I can have some better results.’ When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch. Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’ ”

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#23 Vanimal46

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 02:36 PM

So it sounds like Pérez will start the season in the pen. Watching Romero implode today makes me think he’ll be optioned to Rochester. Seems like a good chance Reed is IL’d, doesn’t it?

They mentioned on the broadcast the Twins may head north with 11 pitchers. That sounds encouraging, actually.


Moya will start the year on the IL as well.

#24 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 02:53 PM

Ryan Pressly says it was the Houston coaching and analytic dept. That's his opinion.

At the time of the trade he was averaging an appearance every 2 games (pace for 81 games)with the Twins and that did decrease to an appearance every 2.3 games with Houston (pace of 70.4 games) But by this theory his 2017 would have been much better when he totaled 57 appearances over the entire healthy season (64 appearances if you include his demotion to AAA). Or in 2016 when he had a similar appearances per game to his Houston use of 2.25 (72Games), he was not elite in either of these seasons.

“Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.”

“Every team has an analytics department, and this is no knock on the Twins, but seeing the time [the Astros] put in and the scouting reports you’re given, it’s like, ‘Whoa.’ It’s a different level,” Pressly said. “You kind of see, ‘Wow, if I just pitch a little more to this percentage instead of that percentage I can have some better results.’ When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch. Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’ ”



You are not looking nearly deep enough into the numbers.

On July 8, 2016, Pressly made appearance # 44 in game # 86. It was clear at the time that his stuff wasn’t as sharp. And there was no reason to overwork him. The 2016 team was never in the race. Apparently, the manager realized this during the AS break, cut his load and he was able to finish out the season with only 28 appearances in the team’s remaining 76 games. I speculated at the time (not sure if it was on this board - that may have been rube chat that far back) that the damage may have already been done and that Pressly would likely struggle the following year, especially if he was overworked early again.

Sure enough.

On May 7, 2017, Presly made appearance number 15 in game number 29. The results had been so poor to that point, the Twins had no choice but to reduce his workload. Big shock, his ERA dropped 4 points the rest of the way with a lower workload.
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#25 108Stitches

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 03:47 PM

Agree completely about Reed. Just doesn’t have it. And I know a lot love Alcala but he simply isn’t a better pitcher than Wells. At all. And why is Wells in the pen? He’s definitely starter material, maybe long relief I suppose. But SP is pretty jammed so.. but yeah, No to Reed.
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#26 SomeGuy

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 03:48 PM

 

You are not looking nearly deep enough into the numbers.

On July 8, 2016, Pressly made appearance # 44 in game # 86. It was clear at the time that his stuff wasn’t as sharp. And there was no reason to overwork him. The 2016 team was never in the race. Apparently, the manager realized this during the AS break, cut his load and he was able to finish out the season with only 28 appearances in the team’s remaining 76 games. I speculated at the time (not sure if it was on this board - that may have been rube chat that far back) that the damage may have already been done and that Pressly would likely struggle the following year, especially if he was overworked early again.

Sure enough.

On May 7, 2017, Presly made appearance number 15 in game number 29. The results had been so poor to that point, the Twins had no choice but to reduce his workload. Big shock, his ERA dropped 4 points the rest of the way with a lower workload.

So your argument is that it is a mental thing when he pitches too often or he is physically breaking down?You would think that his velocity/Movement would reflect some sort of change on a month to month change if he was physically affected by his workload.His innings per month isn't really supporting a drastically lower workload.More rest days but longer outings.Would this disqualify him from any sort of defined closer role if you were running the team?

 

In 2017 Pressly pitched 9 innings in april, 9 innings in May.You call this overworked.

He pitched 11.2 in July, 16 in July, 11.2 in August.You call this a lower workload. 

I'm going out on a limb here and saying that he worked on something or had a wake up call with the June demotion to AAA.

 

2016 also show no signs of overworked in an innings per month standing.Certainly doesn't seem like less equals more.Had he thrown 2/3 of an inning more in June would he have lost that 4 point improvement?

April 14.1 innings 3.14ERA

May 14.1 - 6.28 ERA

June 13.2 - 1.98 ERA

July 11.2 - 3.09 ERA

Aug 12.2 - 3.55 ERA

Sept 8.2 - 4.15 ERA

 

We are over thinking what Ryan Pressly himself has told us is the a result of Houston coaching staff.


#27 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 04:04 PM

Working a guy more than every other game for an extended period is simply too much for anyone. It isn’t about innings per month. It’s about appearances per team game at an unsustainable level.

And yes, I think it is physical breakdown. The fastball has less zip. The breaking ball has less bite. I know there are people here who are a lot better at breaking down in season velocity and break rate changes than I am. I just know what my eyes were telling me.
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#28 SomeGuy

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 04:49 PM

Working a guy more than every other game for an extended period is simply too much for anyone. It isn’t about innings per month. It’s about appearances per team game at an unsustainable level.

And yes, I think it is physical breakdown. The fastball has less zip. The breaking ball has less bite. I know there are people here who are a lot better at breaking down in season velocity and break rate changes than I am. I just know what my eyes were telling me.

At no point in his career did Pressly suddenly become elite with a lower number of appearances. Except the time he was acquired by the Houston Astros.

His fastball velocity remained consistent month to month each season 2016 to 2018.

Edited by SomeGuy, 20 March 2019 - 04:53 PM.


#29 PDX Twin

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 05:20 PM

After today, it looks like Romero needs a league with a bigger plate. Or maybe just one where walks don't matter, like AAA. I'd pencil him off the roster until he gets it together.

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It's great to get out of the cellar ... as long as you bring something with you.


#30 dbminn

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 06:13 PM

 

He was, to that point, also ridiculously overworked. He made his 41st appearance on June 29 during team game number 78. He was on pace to appear in 85 games. Mike Marshall holds the team record with 90 appearances in 1979. “Everyday” Eddie had 83 in 1996 and JC Romero had 81 in 2002. No other Twin has ever been over 80.


Houston drastically cut his workload. That is what made him an elite reliever IMO.

 

Pressly threw 47.2 IP for the Twins across 103 games. His Astros stats were 23.1 IP in 56 games. Had the Astros used him 2.2 more innings, it would've been equal use. Nothing drastic.  


#31 jorgenswest

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 06:32 PM

Pressly threw 47.2 IP for the Twins across 103 games. His Astros stats were 23.1 IP in 56 games. Had the Astros used him 2.2 more innings, it would've been equal use. Nothing drastic.


Should we be looking over the long term or would it be a very busy week or a couple of back to back games close together?

I have no idea how to judge but it seems a short period of overuse could have an effect that lasts for a stretch. I also wonder about that 2.2 out of 23.1 which probably represents 3 outings or almost 10% of the 23.1. I am not confident that is insignificant. The other unknown is how many times the manager warmed the reliever up.

I will be interested to see if Baldelli manages the pen differently.

#32 DocBauer

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 07:11 PM

In regards to Pressly, I didn't like the trade then, and j don't like it now. There is a decent chance the pkayers they acquired are going to be good. But with another year of control, and need on the Twins, I didn't see it as a "too good to turn down" offer. I also think this staff would have done many of the same things Houston did, or have been credited with. It's too bad, but he's gone.

Brock made a great comment in a different thread the other day about how much better he'd feel about the pen with just ONE acquisition you felt like could make a difference. I agree 100%!

That ONE ARM is not only a guy you could count on, but pushes everyone else down a notch, deepening the entire pen.

I like and believe in May and Rogers. I think Parker was a solid addition. I think we've seen enough of Mejia to realize he can be good in either role, just needs to find the ability/toughness to put hitters away with 2 strikes. (Comes with experience). But what else is there we can feel remotely good about at this point?

Romero has the arm talent to succeed, and do well. Being one of our best arms, I want to take that arm and potential north. But his last 2 appearances have been awful. (To be fair, his defense let him down on Sunday, but still). Reed looks like he is done, or should be on the IL to begin the year.

I get the volatile nature of RP and just signing guys and plugging them in doesn't mean success. And there was a great piece a few days back by Matt Braun about building a pen. (Worth reading if you haven't already). The crux is an example of building a quality pen without "names" in place. I get it. But to have a roster that looks this good with at least a decent rotation...and some depth...and not better address the biggest Achilles heel on this team baffles me. There are just too many "iffs" we are counting on to make me comfortable.

I have this awful feeling we have a 92/o3 win team who will end up at 82/83 wins due to a bullpen that just can't get the job done consistently enough.
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#33 Linus

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 07:59 PM

Their bullpen was bad last year. This past off season many free agent relievers were available for cheap. They did nothing to improve a bunch of question marks. I guess I don’t understand spin rates
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#34 Nick Nelson

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 08:12 PM

 

So what your saying is that before a great 10 game stretch prior to his trade, his ERA was at 4.14 with the 2018 Twins. 

 

Houston unleashed a completely different beast just like they did with Verlander, Cole, Osuna, and Morton.The player that Houston just resigned is not the same player the Twins traded.He was good but not one of the most elite relief pitchers in the game.

 

https://www.washingt...m=.c427047cf821

Pressly was extremely good all year with the exception of a two-week rough stretch in June. He had a 2.15 ERA after 30 appearances. He was a dominant reliever for the Twins.

 

No one is arguing that the Astros didn't make tweaks and seemingly help him improve, but acting like he was some sort of ordinary reliever for the Twins is just blatantly false. Pressly's K-rate and whiff rate were among the best in the league, both before and after the trade.

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#35 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 09:09 PM

On the Pressly thing, he could not throw his curve ball for strikes. Everyone knew that was his best pitch, but he couldn't get it across and so hitters laid off it.

 

In 2018, when he located his curve, he was terrific. When he didn't, he walked guys and hitters sat on his fastball.

 

Look at his quote, he's saying: Yeah, my curve is my best pitch but I needed to set it up with the fastball. It's not exactly analytics on Houston's part; everyone saw the same thing. But they convinced him to re-order his pitch sequence and philosophy using analytics as evidence.

 

Giving guys confidence and a reason to change so they become successful, call that what you will, but sometimes a video is more persuasive than the knuckle-rap on the chest that says, You can do this.

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#36 dbminn

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 09:25 PM

 

Should we be looking over the long term or would it be a very busy week or a couple of back to back games close together?

I have no idea how to judge but it seems a short period of overuse could have an effect that lasts for a stretch. I also wonder about that 2.2 out of 23.1 which probably represents 3 outings or almost 10% of the 23.1. I am not confident that is insignificant. The other unknown is how many times the manager warmed the reliever up.

I will be interested to see if Baldelli manages the pen differently.

 

Well, look it up and report back. I'll be happy to read what you come up with. To me, it's not significant. At the least, it's not drastic, as was contended in the original post. 

Edited by dbminn, 20 March 2019 - 09:26 PM.


#37 Twodogs

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 12:44 PM

Is it just me, or does it look like Romero should be sent back down? Seems like he has gotten shelled and seems to be walking a lot of guys? Like to see him get it going in the right direction again.

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#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 01:15 PM

If Romero can't help.....it will be another reminder why trading minor league guys for actual MLB players is maybe a better idea than some here will admit....

 

That said, I have every confidence he'll be a good RP someday. 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#39 jkcarew

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 10:19 PM

That said, I have every confidence he'll be a good RP someday. (Romero)


I hope so. A year ago the consensus here seemed to be upper end of rotation guy. Seems kind of sudden that I find myself questioning when he’ll be ready for a relief role...any relief role. He’s 24 and counting.

#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 March 2019 - 09:51 AM

 

I hope so. A year ago the consensus here seemed to be upper end of rotation guy. Seems kind of sudden that I find myself questioning when he’ll be ready for a relief role...any relief role. He’s 24 and counting.

 

Not everyone shared that consensus, but I'm trying not to post every negative take I have.....

 

Like I said, I expect him to be at least a good RP.....

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 




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