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Mike Trout Extension

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:36 AM

 

Good for Trout and the Angels fans; I assume there is such a thing.

 

The Angels have made some brutal personnel decisions the last decade and can't draft and develop to save their lives. Trout seems to be the exception. If they weren't in the same league as the Twins, I'd hope they'd get their act together with their farm system to get Trout some more playoff spotlight.

 

9th ranked farm system now that the new GM took over 3 years ago. I think you are looking at the past......

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#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:38 AM

 

Finally, as I said, I'm not that interested in how historically great of a player Trout is right now.What does that matter if the cost of employing him contributes to an inability to create a team capable of reaching and winning in the postseason?I'm sure it will be nice when Trout goes into Cooperstown with an Angel hat on, but if the cost of that is 0 World Series titles, is that a price the Angels should be willing to pay?

 

Trout costs $36M per year for a franchise than can support a $200M payroll; the club is a top 10 spender every year. His contract isn't harmful in any possible way.

 

Even on the Twins, $36M wouldn't be unmanageable.

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#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:40 AM

 

9th ranked farm system now that the new GM took over 3 years ago. I think you are looking at the past......

 

Yeah, historically they've been brutal. I'm not sure that a 9th ranking is going to put a ton of guys around Trout, but maybe, it's a better situation now than it has been in forever. I liked their GM and managerial change; they probably should have made those moves long before. I'd feel a lot better about the future if I was an Angles fan.


#24 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:42 AM

 

9th ranked farm system, btw, and getting better every year since they switched GMs. And they just added Ohtani.....

 

Why do you believe they'll have the same team? 

 

What are the odds they can compete in 3 years? Look at, I don't know, the Twins....how long since they competed?

 

Again, what do you think you can realistically get for Trout, before this deal? And, what are the odds any of those players get to even 3 annual WAR?

 

MLB has them at 14th.And when you system is ranked 30th in 2016 and 29th in 2017, it's hard not to get better.Maybe their GM has turned around their drafting, maybe he hasn't--two years seems a bit soon to tell.

 

I believe they'll have the same team because they have to pay $85M a year for the next 3 years for three players; they don't have the ability to upgrade their team without having to rely on players on rookie deals or blowing past their historical payroll limits--if they're willing to do that my entire argument is moot, but I assume Arte Moreno isn't going to ok $225M to $250M payrolls.Prove me wrong Arte.

 

As for who they would get instead of Trout, you're absolutely right, the Angels in all likelihood would not get equivalent WAR back.Or maybe they would get the next Jose Ramirez who, 3 years before posting a 4.7 WAR season in the bigs had an 88 wRC+ season in AA.But to a larger degree, my point is that if you can't win a World Series with your team as currently constructed, why stand pat?The Angels, based on the past 2-3 years seem to have hit their ceiling, and due to massive salary constraints, seem unlikely to be able to break through it.Therefore, what they are essentially doing with this deal is deciding to hope that 32 year old Mike Trout will remain a premier player when the balance sheet finally becomes manageable.Based on the list of comps I provided earlier, maybe he will, maybe he won't.After all, when Griffey Jr. was 26 (Trout's current age) he put up a 9.7 WAR.But he only had two more seasons in him of 6+ WAR production, and by the time he was 33, only had two more season of positive WAR in him (one of which was 0.1).


#25 Blackjack

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:47 AM

I think he'll be able to feed his family after signing this contract!!


#26 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:53 AM

 

I want to understand....are you saying before the deal that you'd rather have those other players than Trout? I'll bet you are 100% wrong that every team thinks that. Or maybe I'm not understanding.....

 

I think a lot of teams would rather have Jose Ramirez at $19M or Christian Yelich at $36M over the next three years than Mike Trout at $108M.You could sign an extremely useful player for 3/24 or 3/30 that would easily make up the difference between the (fairly small) difference in WAR.You also aren't on the hook to pay Trout $144M AFTER he turns 35, and will most likely be worth only a fraction of that.In history, Chipper Jones is 10th all time in OPS+ after age 35 at 139.If Trout equals that, he would not be a top 10 hitter in the league (based on last year).


#27 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:58 AM

 

Trout costs $36M per year for a franchise than can support a $200M payroll; the club is a top 10 spender every year. His contract isn't harmful in any possible way.

 

Even on the Twins, $36M wouldn't be unmanageable.

 

The Angels have never been above $175M.if they wouldn't push to $200M in the heart of Trout's prime, why would they do it now, as we move to the end of it?

 

$36M would not be unmanageable on the Twins, but mostly because they don't have $50M a year tied up in Pujols and Upton for the next three years.If they did, I guarantee you it would be extremely unmanageable.


#28 biggentleben

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 12:15 PM

 

Their farm system is improved, but still not great, with only two in the top 100 (according to MLB.com).

 

You're off here significantly. They've done incredible work on the farm system. While you source MLB.com (and BA has 2 as well), Baseball Prospectus had 5 in their 101, Keith Law had 3, Fangraphs had 5 in their top 132, and I know in my top 150 that I placed 5 but had another 3 that were in strong consideration and likely were in the next 50-75.

 

Of course, all that to say the number of prospects in a top 100 list has almost no bearing on the strength of a farm system overall. The Angels are a legit top-half farm system. I have them #11 right now, but they're very nearly a top 10 overall farm system in most rankings.

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#29 biggentleben

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 12:18 PM

 

Good for Trout and the Angels fans; I assume there is such a thing.

 

The Angels have made some brutal personnel decisions the last decade and can't draft and develop to save their lives. Trout seems to be the exception. If they weren't in the same league as the Twins, I'd hope they'd get their act together with their farm system to get Trout some more playoff spotlight.

 

Much like those who spew crap on the Orioles pitching development the last two years, not realizing that it changed drastically, the tired comments about how poor the Angels are at development have nothing to do with the current regime. That was Jerry Dipoto. Billy Eppling was brought in intentionally to have an emphasis on building a long-term strategy for competitiveness, not a year-to-year modality that Dipoto espoused.

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#30 biggentleben

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 12:25 PM

 

The Angels have never been above $175M.if they wouldn't push to $200M in the heart of Trout's prime, why would they do it now, as we move to the end of it?

 

$36M would not be unmanageable on the Twins, but mostly because they don't have $50M a year tied up in Pujols and Upton for the next three years.If they did, I guarantee you it would be extremely unmanageable.

 

1. Significant sources of new income for the team (new local TV deal money kicking in and national money from new deal)

2. Clearing crappy deals from the Dipoto era clearing dead payroll space (2018 was the first year with no money heading to Josh Hamilton, for instance).

3. Moreno has said over and over that the money is there if it makes sense, and he has opened the pocketbook to leap forward in payroll many times when it came to competitiveness.

4. That number is wrong. They have had end-of-season payrolls between $175-190 million the last three seasons.

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#31 biggentleben

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 12:31 PM

 

MLB has them at 14th.And when you system is ranked 30th in 2016 and 29th in 2017, it's hard not to get better.Maybe their GM has turned around their drafting, maybe he hasn't--two years seems a bit soon to tell.

 

When you review more than just rankings to understand a farm system, you will know that the Angels have made incredible strides throughout their player acquisitions since Billy came on board. Bringing in three of the ex-Braves prospects last winter seemed to go under the radar because they had signed multiple huge names in the July 2017 class already and also got Ohtani. Add in some of the best drafting the last few years, and the system has moved up significantly.

A Twitter discussion with Jonathan Mayo mentioned that the Pipeline staff viewed 9-15 as very fluid in their rankings. He even mentioned that he had the Angels as #10 on his personal list, but the summation of the staff had them lower.

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#32 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 01:33 PM

 

1. Significant sources of new income for the team (new local TV deal money kicking in and national money from new deal)

2. Clearing crappy deals from the Dipoto era clearing dead payroll space (2018 was the first year with no money heading to Josh Hamilton, for instance).

3. Moreno has said over and over that the money is there if it makes sense, and he has opened the pocketbook to leap forward in payroll many times when it came to competitiveness.

4. That number is wrong. They have had end-of-season payrolls between $175-190 million the last three seasons.

 

1. The current deal was agreed to in 2011.There is no new local TV money kicking in.

2. They've cleared some crappy deals, but have not created payroll space.It's great and all that they're not paying Josh Hamilton anymore, but their payroll isn't significantly lower, and they're not significantly better, so what does that matter?

3.If the money is there, why hasn't he used it yet?To return to my question, when you have what is near-universally believed to be the best player in baseball, in his prime, for relatively cheap, why wouldn't you go above luxury tax thresholds then?

4. I went off opening day payrolls from spotrac.If the owner really wanted to compete, and was ok spending money to do it, don't you think he would spend in the offseason, not wait until halfway through the year?


#33 howieramone2

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 02:15 PM

 

What do you think Betts is going to be paid, when he re-ups? What do you think any of those guys would be paid if they were free to sign with any team? 

 

The Pujols deal was stupid, and most people said it at the time. He was older, and played 1B/DH. 

 

Let's say they traded Trout before this, what do you realistically think they'd get? Remember, using three or four players to get 7-8 WAR (if they even make the majors) is a lot less valuable than using 1. Because those other 2-3 players not the 1 guy will also be producing positive WAR.

 

Which 2-3 free agents would you use the Trout money for, that would be better than Trout by 3 or more WAR for sure (since you are using more roster spots to get the same WAR, they need to be much more valuable)? 

Actually most free agency deals are stupid. Can't believe how many still confuse free agency with Christmas. When Mauer was signed, BA said too much of the % of payroll went to him and Morneau. Who would have guessed?

Edited by howieramone2, 19 March 2019 - 02:28 PM.


#34 biggentleben

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 02:16 PM

 

1. The current deal was agreed to in 2011.There is no new local TV money kicking in.

2. They've cleared some crappy deals, but have not created payroll space.It's great and all that they're not paying Josh Hamilton anymore, but their payroll isn't significantly lower, and they're not significantly better, so what does that matter?

3.If the money is there, why hasn't he used it yet?To return to my question, when you have what is near-universally believed to be the best player in baseball, in his prime, for relatively cheap, why wouldn't you go above luxury tax thresholds then?

4. I went off opening day payrolls from spotrac.If the owner really wanted to compete, and was ok spending money to do it, don't you think he would spend in the offseason, not wait until halfway through the year?

 

They are spending on the team. With some significant young pitchers either returning from injury or coming up soon from the minors, they chose to spend in short-term deals this offseason on Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, and Cody Allen. They flirted with other starters, but the price wasn't right with the options that they have in guys like Andrew Heaney, Jaime Barria, Tyler Skaggs, Felix Pena, Jose Suarez, Griffin Canning, and down the road Luis Madero, Jose Soriano, Oliver Ortega, and Patrick Sandoval.

 

Most every team drops salary in the offseason and adds during the year. The Angels were trading away assets during the year last year and still ended up with more salary by the end of the season. That's the nature of the beast with any team. Here are the Twins OD/EOY payrolls the last 5 seasons:

2014 - OD: $85,465,000; EOY: $91,071,286

2015 - OD: $108,262,500; EOY: $108,275,245

2016 - OD: $105,333,700; EOY: $122,601,625

2017 - OD: $108,102,500; EOY: $123,573,527

2018 - OD: $128,713,226; EOY: $143,820,218

 

Every single year, the payroll was higher at year-end, whether the team was competing or not.

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#35 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 03:07 PM



How much is your time worth? My future goal is for a minute of my time to be worth $70.

#36 cardsfan

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 03:59 PM

Can, I first say Trout is a future HOFer. But, when I see 39 HRs and 79 RBIs and 33 HRs and 72 RBIs I'm thinking shouldn't he be driving in more runs? Is he walking instead of driving in runs when no one is behind him? This is the same issue with Joey Votto.

The Angels are the only expansion team above .500 by a few games over franchise history.

They probably would be better having 2 players that can drive in runs for $43 million.

#37 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 04:04 PM

Can, I first say Trout is a future HOFer. But, when I see 39 HRs and 79 RBIs and 33 HRs and 72 RBIs I'm thinking shouldn't he be driving in more runs? Is he walking instead of driving in runs when no one is behind him? This is the same issue with Joey Votto.

The Angels are the only expansion team above .500 by a few games over franchise history.

They probably would be better having 2 players that can drive in runs for $43 million.


Not sure if serious.
It's somehow Trout's fault that nobody is on base ahead of him?
BTW, his career slugging percentage is 20 points higher with RISP than it is with the bases empty, so is his batting average.

#38 Han Joelo

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 04:39 PM

Good for what seems like one of the best guys in sports.  Kind of fun to see an all-timer stick with one team for a career...even more fun not to see this guy in Yankee pinstripes.

 

They might have another Betts-like superstar already in the fold, in Adell.  In a couple of years, with potentially Otani back to elite, Adell on the rise, and Trout being himself still, you've got an incredible nucleus.

 

Anyway, I get how people can argue against this in an analytical vacuum, but I don't see how a team could NOT do everything they can to throw in with a guy like Trout, and let the other chips fall where they may.

 

(O.k--not just let them fall, like Adell did, but also do smart stuff.  Like sign Oteni.)

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#39 cardsfan

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 05:27 PM

Not sure if serious.
It's somehow Trout's fault that nobody is on base ahead of him?
BTW, his career slugging percentage is 20 points higher with RISP than it is with the bases empty, so is his batting average.

Last year he drove in 40 runs other than himself. He should be driving in more runs. He is getting on base at .460 clip and he is only driving in 40 others. This is Joey Votto country. Wait until his HR total drops to 20 ala Votto.

You can see another Angels contract disaster.

#40 Monkeypaws

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 05:28 PM

I find it somewhat ironic people are rah-rahing this deal a day or two after lamenting the plight of underpaid minor-leaguers.

 

Given the numbers posted in that thread, Trout makes as much per year as 3181 minor leaguers, so just about all of them :o