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Article: Matt Capps and his looming option year

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#1 Cody Christie

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 06:33 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ing-option-year

#2 twinswon1991

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 06:53 AM

Sure glad Terry Ryan gave up a sandwich pick for this guy last offseason. Glad he put no thought into building his terrible minor league pitching staff. Ryan must be fired before the Twins waste all opportunity to cash in vets like Span, Morneau, ans Willy for some hard throwing boom or bust prospects. My guess is the clueless Ryan thinks it is better to lose 95 games with the old vets than to lose 100 with young guys building towards the future. The game has passed you by Mr. Ryan, do the right thing and step down.

#3 OldManWinter

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:14 AM

Prospects, even sandwich picks, are still a long way from ML baseball.

#4 Shane Wahl

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:18 AM

There is just no way they bring him back. No way.

#5 old nurse

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:21 AM

Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:28 AM

I hated picking him up for another season instead of taking the pick but what is done is done.

#7 snepp

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:36 AM

Capps isn't the kind of "closer" that you "need." He's nothing more than a decent reliever, certainly not someone worth what you're paying plus a draft pick.

#8 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:37 AM

I'm sorry, but does this topic(or question) really warrant a 5 paragraph article to whether or not the Twins will pick up Capps option?
The obvious answer is: Hell no, and everybody already knows it was an awful trade/signing. I think people should focus more on QUALITY then Quantity of the "articles"

#9 JB_Iowa

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:58 AM

I'm sorry, but does this topic(or question) really warrant a 5 paragraph article to whether or not the Twins will pick up Capps option?
The obvious answer is: Hell no, and everybody already knows it was an awful trade/signing. I think people should focus more on QUALITY then Quantity of the "articles"


Well, Cody does have to find something to write about almost every day .... and unfortunately I never underestimate the ability of the Twins front office to astonish us.

But I do think that Terry Ryan is too conservative (okay, I mean cheap) to pay Capps $6 million. But that doesn't mean I think there is 0% chance that Capps is back.

There's also the possibility that the Twins decline the option but bring him back for less money. He seems to be one of Gardenhire & Ryan's "guys" in terms of personality. (Okay, I'm holding my stomach now).

#10 zenser

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 07:58 AM

Maybe bring him back for 2 years. Someone needs to throw in the HR derby in 2014.

#11 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:02 AM

Capps is a good pitcher. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to taking the option. For me, the salary isn't a big issue unless it prohibits signing a free agent starting pitcher.

#12 Boom Boom

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:03 AM

I'm sorry, but does this topic(or question) really warrant a 5 paragraph article to whether or not the Twins will pick up Capps option?
The obvious answer is: Hell no, and everybody already knows it was an awful trade/signing. I think people should focus more on QUALITY then Quantity of the "articles"



It seems obvious to you and me, but the Twins have demonstrated twice now that they've got a love for Capps that goes beyond how he actually performs on the field.

It was obvious to me that signing Capps again in the offseason was a mistake, but the Twins did it anyway.

#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:07 AM

Capps is a good pitcher. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to taking the option. For me, the salary isn't a big issue unless it prohibits signing a free agent starting pitcher.


Even a healthy Capps is not worth the $6.25m difference between the option and the buyout. Pass.

Scott Baker won't get that much in 2013. Who would you rather see paid that money?

#14 Rosterman

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:25 AM

You can better spend any of the money. No need to even pay a Capps $2 million. He may be worth that, but bullpen at any price above that, for the moment, is not a necessity. I would rather see the Twins go after, say, a Jon Rauch again if there was the need. But Starting pitching and middle infield are the two places you need to spend. Spend Pavano and Baker money on one pitcher, spend Capps and Casilla money (and Marquis) on another. There, that was easy...........

Next year you can spend Toshi and Blackburn money on yet another pitcher or hitter......

#15 Craig in MN

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:25 AM

The Twins have gotten a look at plenty of other options to fill-up the bullpen for next season and players like Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, and Casey Fien will all come with a smaller price tag than Capps. There doesn't seem to be a place for him on the 2013 Twins but that doesn't mean he won't be back in Minnesota.


There are always players that come at a cheaper price tag than a veteran....that is only one factor. I'm not a Capps fan, and don't particularly ever want to see him pitch for the Twins again, but what it boils down to for me is that he's just a better pitcher Burnett or Swarzak. The Twins could fill out the bullpen with those other guys, but they'd have a better and deeper bullpen if they had Capps pitching in the 7th inning instead of Burnett. There's no way they should pick up his option, but there's no way any team is going offer Capps even $3 million next year. I'd offer him a $2 million deal with maybe an option/buyout for 2014 and tell him he can earn whatever bullpen job he can get in spring training. No other team will offer him any better than that, and the Twins will be better for having him around, and they should be able to afford the money.

#16 Winston Smith

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:30 AM

My guess is that both Cappie and Pavano will be back; "They both battle and get after it. Go about their business the right way and provide veteran leadership" per Gardy after the signings!

#17 nick5253

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:43 AM

Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.


Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.

#18 Shane Wahl

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:54 AM

Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.


Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.


For what it's worth, in my 2012 blueprint I had wanted the Twins to sign both Broxton and Dotel for a combined $8 million . . .

#19 snepp

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:57 AM

Capps is a good pitcher. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to taking the option. For me, the salary isn't a big issue unless it prohibits signing a free agent starting pitcher.


You could get two or three Capps for that money.


Or maybe some middle infield help. Or starting pitching help. Or new carpet in the corporate offices.

#20 johnnydakota

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 09:21 AM

1)i see you blame bill smith ,even though it is known that terry ryan was his advisior and made all of the transactions during smith tenoras g.m.
2)guessing what terry(curly) ryan will do is never posible, as he seems to luv soft tossing pitchers, and last night crapps only could muster 89-90 mph

#21 old nurse

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 10:10 AM

Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.


Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.


Those that signed a one year deal, what was their WAR the previous season? You would be basing your decision on what they have done and anticipate continuation. When used as a closer, what was Capps WAR when healthy? He wasn't this year.

#22 zenser

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 10:28 AM

Capps is a good pitcher. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to taking the option. For me, the salary isn't a big issue unless it prohibits signing a free agent starting pitcher.


If Capps is a good pitcher, Butera is a good catcher and Valencia was a good 3B and Nishioka is a good middle infielder. The Twins could have saved some money and signed one of the other half a dozen guys that got one year deals and would have had about the same pitcher.

Some other team can sign him for the 2-3 million range and he can be there problem. I just hope he stays in the AL so he can pitch BP to us at the end of the game.

#23 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 10:32 AM

1)i see you blame bill smith ,even though it is known that terry ryan was his advisior and made all of the transactions during smith tenoras g.m.


This is patently untrue. Stop saying it.

#24 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 10:45 AM

I am not a Capps hater but I did not like the trade either.
He was not a mediocre pitcher when they acquired him, as he was a legit All Star that season with Nationals, who had 3 that summer.
I was not the biggest Ramos fan, who I see as a middle of road prospect still. TRyan rectified that deal by signing Ryan Doumit.....a better option.
I agree that we should of taken the draft pick tho as closers can be overrated and the way Gardy uses em is proof of that.
However, if they sign Capps to a total incentive laden deal to pitch the 7th/8th in Alex Burnett's spot, I wouldnt hate it....but ONLY an incentive games pitched deal to offset his arm problems.

#25 twinswon1991

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 11:14 AM

1)i see you blame bill smith ,even though it is known that terry ryan was his advisior and made all of the transactions during smith tenoras g.m.


This is patently untrue. Stop saying it.


During the Smith years TR did provide all player eval imput to BS as BS has no player eval skillsn. BS is to blame for the bad contracts but Ryan and his scouts are to blame for the utter lack of talent in the organization.

#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 11:19 AM

[quote name='twinswon1991'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='johnnydakota']1)i see you blame bill smith ,even though it is known that terry ryan was his advisior and made all of the transactions during smith tenoras g.m.[/QUOTE]

This is patently untrue. Stop saying it.[/QUOTE]

During the Smith years TR did provide all player eval imput to BS as BS has no player eval skillsn. BS is to blame for the bad contracts but Ryan and his scouts are to blame for the utter lack of talent in the organization.[/QUOTE]

Did JR advise BS on players? No doubt. Did Smith listen? I have no idea and neither does anyone else on this forum. In the end, Smith was the decision maker. He gets the blame for bad decisions made during his tenure. Given what JR has done since that point (plus signings in Doumit/Willingham/Burton, a marginal signing in Carroll, and bad signings in Marquis/Capps), I think he's done a decent job with the franchise. The last draft certainly went gangbusters with Buxton and Berrios.

Like I've been saying all along, rebuilding is not a five minute process. JR is entering his second offseason. If he doesn't come through this winter, then it's time to start complaining.

#27 tmerrickkeller

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 11:23 AM

Rosterman hit the nail on the head - spend Baker/Pavano money on one pitcher, spend Casilla/Capps/Marquis money on another. Now, it isn't fair to think about the option year dollars that we'd have to spend if we retained them ('cuz we aren't, under this scenario) and it IS fair to consider those players who are due raises.

Where does that put us? How much do we have to spend, assuming $90 million as payroll? And then (I'd argue) assume it is worth it to spend $5-$10 million more to improve the team and send a positive PR message and try to fill the seats again (and that RP move HAS to be 2 decent starting pitchers). If we take those dollars and compare them to the bumper crop of FA SPs this year, who could we get? (and please don't tell me we'd get Baker and Pavano back, maybe sign FA Francisco Liriano and "load up" with the same old same old). Who could we really get?

I've got to think about something positive, winter is coming.

#28 nick5253

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 01:14 PM

[quote name='old nurse'][quote name='nick5253'][quote name='old nurse']Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.[/QUOTE]

Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.[/QUOTE]

Those that signed a one year deal, what was their WAR the previous season? You would be basing your decision on what they have done and anticipate continuation. When used as a closer, what was Capps WAR when healthy? He wasn't this year.[/QUOTE]

Player, '12 Salary, '12 WAR, '11 WAR

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1, -0.4
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3, -0.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0, 1.7
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8, 0.1
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5, 0.9
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2, 0.3
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4, -0.6
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2, -0.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3, 1.4

So, in order of 2011 WAR, the Twins chose the 2nd worst player and paid him the 2nd most money AND sacrificed a draft pick.

Capps cumulative WAR for the Twins over the 2+ years, is 0.1 (0.6,-0.4,-0.1) for which he has 'earned' around 13 mil. Capps value was clear to nearly everyone (except BS & apparently old nurse) when the Twins acquired him: a good setup man as long as he's cost controlled that was labeled a 'closer' by virtue of being the best bullpen arm on a couple bad teams.

You can spin the trade by saying you undervalue Ramos considerably, but there is no way you can spin last year's signing and forfeiture of the 'free' draft pick.

#29 Thrylos

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 04:54 PM

I am sure that the Twins will look again in the heap pile and find another couple pitchers better than Capps next season (like they did with Burton and Fien this season) I just find it irritating that they are playing him in expense of a prospect or two...

#30 old nurse

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 06:34 PM

[quote name='nick5253'][quote name='old nurse'][quote name='nick5253'][quote name='old nurse']Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.[/QUOTE]

Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.[/QUOTE]

Those that signed a one year deal, what was their WAR the previous season? You would be basing your decision on what they have done and anticipate continuation. When used as a closer, what was Capps WAR when healthy? He wasn't this year.[/QUOTE]

Player, '12 Salary, '12 WAR, '11 WAR

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1, -0.4
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3, -0.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0, 1.7
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8, 0.1
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5, 0.9
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2, 0.3
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4, -0.6
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2, -0.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3, 1.4

So, in order of 2011 WAR, the Twins chose the 2nd worst player and paid him the 2nd most money AND sacrificed a draft pick.

Capps cumulative WAR for the Twins over the 2+ years, is 0.1 (0.6,-0.4,-0.1) for which he has 'earned' around 13 mil. Capps value was clear to nearly everyone (except BS & apparently old nurse) when the Twins acquired him: a good setup man as long as he's cost controlled that was labeled a 'closer' by virtue of being the best bullpen arm on a couple bad teams.

You can spin the trade by saying you undervalue Ramos considerably, but there is no way you can spin last year's signing and forfeiture of the 'free' draft pick.[/QUOTE]

WTF did I ever say that was spin? You are the one using a single stastic. First off, can you even tell what the p value of the rating is so one could tell if .4 difference betweens players really means diddly. The second fatal flaw is your assumption that the Twins did not contact any of the other pitchers.
Like it or not Capps is what they could get for a reliever in 2010. The cost was a potentially good catcher. Clearly Rauch was not the answer. With Nathan making it clear he wasn't going to come back you have to make your best guess. Capps WAR as listed in 2011 when he was used as a closer was 1.2. 1.2 looks good by your list. Who or what would sign with the Twins and could perform well in their park.