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2020 Presidential Election

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#561 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 11 May 2019 - 07:36 AM

I'm getting increasingly concerned that the Dems are blowing this and we're going to get 4 more years of this noxious clown show. Obama was right when he warned of the dangers of a circular firing squad.It feels like every day I read about someone announcing that they are running.At this rate it will soon be easier to name the Dems in the Senate who aren't running.

 

Forget by who, but I saw the point made recently that the last 2 successful Democratic presidential candidates, both of whom also won re-election bids, were both seen as challenges to the status quo and appealing to more centrist voters. I thought it was a good observation, but nobody in the current field jumps out at me as fitting that description.  

 

The other important point not to lose sight of is this:this is not really a national election.It will come down the results in a small number of battleground states, maybe 5 or 6. You already know which way the other 40+ are going to go.Don't worry about those.

 

Sadly, having lost 3 very winnable presidential elections in the last 5, it's hard to have faith that the Dems will get this one right.

 

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#562 Badsmerf

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Posted 11 May 2019 - 04:19 PM

I think there are a large number of the Dem field that will beat Trump. I like some more than others, but Trump is a terrible incumbent.
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#563 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 May 2019 - 04:24 PM

I'm getting increasingly concerned that the Dems are blowing this and we're going to get 4 more years of this noxious clown show. Obama was right when he warned of the dangers of a circular firing squad. It feels like every day I read about someone announcing that they are running. At this rate it will soon be easier to name the Dems in the Senate who aren't running.

Forget by who, but I saw the point made recently that the last 2 successful Democratic presidential candidates, both of whom also won re-election bids, were both seen as challenges to the status quo and appealing to more centrist voters. I thought it was a good observation, but nobody in the current field jumps out at me as fitting that description.

The other important point not to lose sight of is this: this is not really a national election. It will come down the results in a small number of battleground states, maybe 5 or 6. You already know which way the other 40+ are going to go. Don't worry about those.

Sadly, having lost 3 very winnable presidential elections in the last 5, it's hard to have faith that the Dems will get this one right.


Yup. Like five states even matter in this election. It's a problem for liberals for sure.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#564 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 May 2019 - 05:57 PM

 

Yup. Like five states even matter in this election. It's a problem for liberals for sure.

 

That and Republican factions fall into line.The left has always had more trouble quelling their small uprisings.

 

Trump gets elected - Evangelicals fall in line.Hillary gets elected - some liberals sit in the corner and pout.It's a character strength that principles matter so much, but it's an election weakness of the highest order.

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#565 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 11 May 2019 - 11:48 PM

 

That and Republican factions fall into line.The left has always had more trouble quelling their small uprisings.

 

Trump gets elected - Evangelicals fall in line.Hillary gets elected - some liberals sit in the corner and pout.It's a character strength that principles matter so much, but it's an election weakness of the highest order.

 

Yeah Dems can get hurt in elections because some lefties get overly concerned with their own smug self-satisfaction.Adherence to principles is a fine thing, but like many other good things, it can become a bad thing when taken too far.

One of the big reasons that Trump won in 2016 is that many disappointed Bernie lovers just couldn't bring themselves to vote for "Crooked Hillary", so they either stayed home or voted for Jill Stein.

 

  

 


#566 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 12:00 AM

 

Yup. Like five states even matter in this election. It's a problem for liberals for sure.

 

I think Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia and Florida will decide it.Trump won all of those but Virginia last time around. If the economy stays strong, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Dems to flip enough of the others to win.

 


#567 PseudoSABR

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 12:21 AM

 

Yeah Dems can get hurt in elections because some lefties get overly concerned with their own smug self-satisfaction.Adherence to principles is a fine thing, but like many other good things, it can become a bad thing when taken too far.

One of the big reasons that Trump won in 2016 is that many disappointed Bernie lovers just couldn't bring themselves to vote for "Crooked Hillary", so they either stayed home or voted for Jill Stein.

We've talked about this before, but anecdotally I know far more moderates that voted for neither Hillary and Trump; I literally know no one who supported Bernie in the primaries and did not vote for Hillary.These people only seem to exist on twitter...  

 

What this analysis doesn't take into account is that Bernie appealed to people who normally would not vote at all or do not vote for Democrat (Green partiers etc.).So I'm not really sure there's any lost Democrats because of Bernie, rather he broadened the tent, and it is no surprise that people who were engaged for the first time by him, weren't going to turn out for Hillary.(Let's not forget the major reason to vote her was that she was electable/qualified as opposed to Bernie).

 

Cynicism isn't leadership.I'm beginning to think if there's one Democrat that could actually lose to Trump, it might be Biden.  

 

That said, it's nice to have new voice around here.I hope you keep it up. 

Edited by PseudoSABR, 12 May 2019 - 12:22 AM.


#568 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 01:34 AM

 

We've talked about this before, but anecdotally I know far more moderates that voted for neither Hillary and Trump; I literally know no one who supported Bernie in the primaries and did not vote for Hillary.These people only seem to exist on twitter...  

 

What this analysis doesn't take into account is that Bernie appealed to people who normally would not vote at all or do not vote for Democrat (Green partiers etc.).So I'm not really sure there's any lost Democrats because of Bernie, rather he broadened the tent, and it is no surprise that people who were engaged for the first time by him, weren't going to turn out for Hillary.(Let's not forget the major reason to vote her was that she was electable/qualified as opposed to Bernie).

 

Cynicism isn't leadership.I'm beginning to think if there's one Democrat that could actually lose to Trump, it might be Biden.  

 

That said, it's nice to have new voice around here.I hope you keep it up. 

 

Anecdotally, I actually know a few traditionally Democratic voters who were all in on Bernie that either stayed home or voted for Stein on election night.I even know of one Bernie supporter who voted for Trump, though I don't know this person well enough to know if they typically voted Dem or were one of the newer voters you mentioned.

I'm not saying these folks are the only or even the main reason Hillary lost, but I think they were a factor.  

In any case, I don't think Bernie is the answer for 2020, and I suspect you're right that Biden isn't either. 

 

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#569 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 07:03 AM

 

Yeah Dems can get hurt in elections because some lefties get overly concerned with their own smug self-satisfaction.Adherence to principles is a fine thing, but like many other good things, it can become a bad thing when taken too far.

One of the big reasons that Trump won in 2016 is that many disappointed Bernie lovers just couldn't bring themselves to vote for "Crooked Hillary", so they either stayed home or voted for Jill Stein.

 

We get regularly examples of your first sentence around here so that made me chuckle.

 

I'm not convinced the scorned Bernie lovers cost the Dems, though.I don't think dense groups of Bernie lovers in Michigan, Penn, Ohio, and Wisconsin were enough to make up that difference.2016 was lost because a two decade campaign of anti-Clinton had left so much bitterness in key swing states that Trump could swoop in and lie his way into people's votes.  

 

The Dems will certainly nominate someone with far less baggage personally than Clinton.But I am still concerned how the word "socialism" plays out.Eventually it has to be truly tested in a presidential election, I guess I'd just prefer we kick that can down the road four years with an incumbent. 

Edited by TheLeviathan, 12 May 2019 - 07:04 AM.

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#570 biggentleben

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 07:21 AM

The in-fighting in the Democratic party turned away many from voting Democrat in 2016, whether we want to admit it or not. Trump stirred up plenty of controversy among Republican candidates, but that was resolved so far ahead of the convention that it was out of mind by the time the party announced its candidate. The Democratic convention was a show for all the wrong reasons in 2016, and I do know some legit independent/moderate types who either did not vote for President at all or held their nose and went with Trump.

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#571 ashbury

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 07:23 AM

Yeah Dems can get hurt in elections because some lefties get overly concerned with their own smug self-satisfaction.

 

We get regularly examples of your first sentence around here so that made me chuckle.

I truly don't understand the apparent need to pretend to get inside other people's heads to determine why they say what they do. (Plenty of other examples in these Sports Bar threads, some of them much worse lately, I'm responding to just this latest instance.)

 

Someone can prioritize things differently, or prefer a different approach to solving a given issue, or simply see the world with different eyes, without being smug, nor self-satisfied.

 

Going personal, even with some vague group of people rather than an individual, distracts from the discussion.

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#572 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 09:27 AM

 

I truly don't understand the apparent need to pretend to get inside other people's heads to determine why they say what they do. (Plenty of other examples in these Sports Bar threads, some of them much worse lately, I'm responding to just this latest instance.)

 

Someone can prioritize things differently, or prefer a different approach to solving a given issue, or simply see the world with different eyes, without being smug, nor self-satisfied.

 

Going personal, even with some vague group of people rather than an individual, distracts from the discussion.

 

It wasn't meant as an attack on anyone, and it wasn't a reference to anyone here.I'm just sharing my observations of behaviors I've seen that I think are counterproductive and off-putting.

Certainly having different views doesn't one smug or self-satisfied.I'm talking about the people who are so rabidly insistent on ideological purity that they take to lecturing and scolding people who agree with them on 95% of issues about the other 5%.

And I respectfully disagree that is "distracts from the discussion". We're talking about the 2020 election.If it's something that may influence voters, that is the discussion.

 

Edited by one_eyed_jack, 12 May 2019 - 09:50 AM.


#573 PseudoSABR

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 04:14 PM

 

It wasn't meant as an attack on anyone, and it wasn't a reference to anyone here.I'm just sharing my observations of behaviors I've seen that I think are counterproductive and off-putting.

Certainly having different views doesn't one smug or self-satisfied.I'm talking about the people who are so rabidly insistent on ideological purity that they take to lecturing and scolding people who agree with them on 95% of issues about the other 5%.

And I respectfully disagree that is "distracts from the discussion". We're talking about the 2020 election.If it's something that may influence voters, that is the discussion.

Pretty sure you were only quoted to give context to Leviathan's comment.What distracts from the discussion is Leviathan using your point to take potshots at fellow members.  

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#574 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 05:08 PM

Pelosi's position as a power figure for Democrats is reassuring.She gets it. 

 

Brand and fight intelligently. 


#575 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 09:21 PM

Pelosi's position as a power figure for Democrats is reassuring. She gets it.

Brand and fight intelligently.

I hated the idea of Pelosi as speaker again but she’s kinda killing it. She’s out to win, not posture.
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#576 biggentleben

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 09:55 AM

Shaun puts together a very solid thread here...

https://twitter.com/...961645714759681

Edited by biggentleben, 13 May 2019 - 09:56 AM.

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#577 PseudoSABR

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 10:46 AM

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#578 Vanimal46

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 11:56 AM


#579 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 12:07 PM

 

 

hahahahahaha! Seriously? They haven't compromised since POTUS Clinton. Seriously. The thought that party cares about anything other than low taxes and government empowering white men is ridiculous.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#580 PseudoSABR

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 12:20 PM

 

hahahahahaha! Seriously? They haven't compromised since POTUS Clinton. Seriously. The thought that party cares about anything other than low taxes and government empowering white men is ridiculous.

Right. The GOP was all onboard compromising on Garland, ACA, etc. etc.