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Weather for the Home Opener

weather opener forecast march
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#21 luckylager

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 03:21 PM

Pro tip: If you're going, get seats on the third base side. 

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#22 Lasorda_This_Out

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 06:26 PM

Good stuff!Anything in that dataset that gives the odds the Mississippi River will rise to the level of the Lake Street Bridge on opening day?

Edited by Lasorda_This_Out, 14 March 2019 - 06:27 PM.

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#23 theBOMisthebomb

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 06:48 PM

It's difficult to be optimistic at this point. It feels as if the opener can't be anything but a miserable winter experience. Hopefully that puffer vest makes it all worth it. Minnesota sucks.
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#24 ashbury

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:00 PM

It's difficult to be optimistic at this point. It feels as if the opener can't be anything but a miserable winter experience. Hopefully that puffer vest makes it all worth it. Minnesota sucks.

That's the spirit!

 

Gosh I miss that place.

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#25 yarnivek1972

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:01 PM

Good stuff! Anything in that dataset that gives the odds the Mississippi River will rise to the level of the Lake Street Bridge on opening day?


I don’t think enough snow will have melted yet to substantially raise the Mississippi.
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#26 scottz

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 11:50 AM

Another day, another forecast. GFS is providing a good example of why no self-respecting meteorologist issues 14 day temperature forecasts. Things change, and sometimes pretty dramatically that far out. Good thing I have no self-respect. Let's forecast!

 

One item to note is that (many of) these models have new model runs every 6 hours. For consistency sake, I am using the "06Z" model runs, even though a newer model is already out today. I've heard and read that some forecasters trust one run over another because they feel that one of the four daily runs tends to run cold, or that the data that is input for one of the runs is sometimes incomplete. Whatever. We're still 13 days out and none of the models should be trusted yet. So I'm sticking with 06Z and will for the duration of this thread.

 

Today's forecast is included for each model in bold. Yesterday's forecast is in (parentheses). All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - GFS with the mood swing from warming trend yesterday to "gross baseball weather" today, with a temperature right around freezing 32 (46-48). Ish. We will blame it on possible precipitation that we're not talking about yet, but which GFS is considering. It is quite possible that GFS bounces right back tomorrow.

FV3 - FV3 takes on a little of the warmth that GFS is shunning with a 1PM temp of 46 (41), but I wouldn't bet the house, with a 50 in northern MN and 39 in Fargo. Kind of wonky today.

Ensemble USA - Low end of 27 (25) while the top end shows 63 (68). The average of this ensemble is 44 (46), coming down two consecutive days.

Ensemble Euro - The coldest model is not much different than yesterday at 29 (28), with the warmest bumping up a little to 66 (62). The mean creeps up a little as well with 48 (45). Euro's 90% percentile estimate of the max temp is 60 (54), with a 10% chance of 39 (34).

 

I'm not sure I'll be keeping on top of these this weekend. But I'm not sure you will be either, so either way, I'm sure we'll be fine.

2019-03-15.png

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#27 scottz

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 10:09 AM

10 days out from the opener, and things are starting to get more real. And real looks...warmer. There are a couple of low pressure systems that are trying to set up in the Rockies between now and then, but as of right now, none is organizing into anything too threatening on the precipitation front. That picture will continue to come into focus over the next days. 

 

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - I took a broadcast meteorology course in college where the adjunct professor told us about the psychology of spring temperatures in forecasts. He said that you should never say 60 for a high temperature if you weren't dead certain it was going to be in the 60s. Say 59. Never say 70 if you weren't sure. Say 68 (not 69, for other reasons). He didn't say 50 explictly, but I'm sure that would apply too. So looking at the forecast for GFS as of today, I'd say 49.

FV3 - FV3 would make me feel more comfortable for the warmth, given that it is showing a nice warm bubble to the southwest. But based on the advice above, I'd still read this as 49.

 

Also, although I didn't keep this going over the weekend, the Saturday forecast for both GFS and FV3 was colder than today's, and yesterday's forecast for both was warmer. So there's been a little bit of jumping around. Not uncommon for spring forecasting.

 

Ensemble USA - The coldest model has come up quite a bit since I last posted, all the way to 42. The warmest model shows 62. The mean is all the way up to 50. I can't say 49 here. That's just math.

Ensemble Euro - Euro still holds out for a chance of some cold on the low end at 32, with 66 on the high end. The mean is holding at 48. Euro's 90% percentile estimate of the max temp is 60, with a 10% percentile at 39. These are all really similar to what the Euro produced on Friday.

2019-03-18.png

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#28 MMMordabito

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 01:31 PM

Just got my opener tickets today, so I hope the warming trend continues.

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#29 scottz

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 11:58 AM

 

Just got my opener tickets today, so I hope the warming trend continues.

The warming trend continues - at least for the 06Z model runs, and at least for the home opener. Should we ignore everything else? Of course not! Are we going to ignore everything else in this post! Mostly, yes!

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - Remember yesterday when we were on the edge of 49 and 50? Today's run brings the heat. The pretty pictures says 56 (49).

FV3 - The warm bubble to the southwest yesterday is now a warm bubble for Minnesota and the Dakotas. A solid 55 (49).

 

Feeling good? Not yet. The very next FV3 model run shows 43 while the GFS stays warm. What gives? I think both models are trying to get a handle on a low pressure center setting up over Denver in the days before the opener, and it just isn't a very organized low right now. If I had to bet right now, I'd say that the opener might be a real nice day, and then the Saturday and Sunday games would have cold rain. Good thing I don't have to bet. Let's mostly ignore this.

 

Ensemble USA - Some of that same uncertainty is still hanging around here as the coldest model drops back to 35 (42). The warmest model stays pretty consistent at 63 (62). But even there, consistency doesn't mean too much, as it's not the same warmest model as yesterday. Still lots of jumping around by each of the models. The mean falls just a degree to 49 (50).

Ensemble Euro - A little bit of opposite world for Euro on the cold end, as just as USA goes back colder, Euro's coldest model jumps up to 40 (32). Still a lovely 64 (66) on the warm end. The mean made a big jump to 53 (48). I won't be shocked to see it come back down tomorrow. Euro's 90% percentile estimate for max temp is 61 (60), with the 10% percentile estimate at 46 (39). Euro also adds a "main run" today, with the temp coming in at 60.

 

The only thing I think I can say for sure right now, is that it is a good thing the Rockies open in Miami.

2019-03-19.png

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#30 Nine of twelve

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 06:26 PM

I just want to say I greatly appreciate the information posted by a trained professional. These posts are on a par with Heezy's posts about orthopedic medicine. It sure beats reading the screeds of know-nothings and conspiracy theorists.

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#31 ashbury

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 06:40 PM

It sure beats reading the screeds of know-nothings and conspiracy theorists.

We're still talking about weather forecasting, I hope? :)

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#32 scottz

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 08:27 AM

 

I just want to say I greatly appreciate the information posted by a trained professional. These posts are on a par with Heezy's posts about orthopedic medicine. It sure beats reading the screeds of know-nothings and conspiracy theorists.

Thanks! However, Heezy's posts are significantly better.

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#33 MMMordabito

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 08:45 AM

 

Thanks! However, Heezy's posts are significantly better.

 

But getting them is just a silver lining to something bad happening .... I don't look forward to reading them, but I enjoy reading them when they're written.


#34 scottz

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 11:46 AM

Everything continues to point to a decent to possibly lovely opening day. But spring is a time where the warm air masses to the south are battling against the remnants of cold air masses to the north, and those battles make spring forecasting really tough to be certain, even as we get ever closer to 3/28. But for now, let's see what we've got.

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - Even warmer! 59 (56) with 60s showing in Iowa.

FV3 - Not as confident as GFS. Down quite a bit from yesterday with 46 (55).

 

So much inconsistency in the models, and as I flip back and forth to other model runs, the only thing clear is that nothing is clear. It still looks like some sort of low pressure center will develop to the west (in the Rockies somewhere) around the 28th. That puts us east of the center of the low with south winds. (The circulation around the center of a low in the northern hemisphere is counterclockwise. So if a low is to your west, you get south winds.) That warmth can only go so far because coming south on the other side of the low is cold air and north winds. Again, it isn't clear yet, but Thursday's game still seems OK based on today's runs. Saturday and Sunday? Hard to say if it will be unplayable or unpleasant. BUT THIS POST IS ABOUT THE OPENER.

 

Ensemble USA - This ensemble is starting to tighten up some. No agreement yet, but all parties are coming to the middle some. Whatever the middle ends up being. Coldest temp is pretty consistent at 36 (35). The warmest model drops a bit - into the 50s for (I think) the first time since I started this - 58 (63). The mean stubbornly hangs on to 49 (49).

Ensemble Euro - The bottom end of Euro's model comes in at 37 (40). The max adds a tick back to 65 (64) on the warm end. As I suspected after yesterday's big jump, the mean dropped a little today 51 (53), though not as much as I thought it would. The 90% percentile estimate for max temp drops into the 50s at 57 (61), and the 10% percentile estimate also drops to 43 (46). Euro's main run falls a bit as well 57 (60).

 

One week from tomorrow. Still too far out to trust anything. But hope for good weather on home openers is good.

2019-03-20.png

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#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 06:47 PM

Given how this month started, it's kind of hard to believe we might get good home opener weather.

 

I'm. So. Done. With. Winter.

 

Carrying a 30 lb toddler the past few weeks has been quite the... adventure. Mostly terrifying, but I'll go with "adventure" for diplomacy's sake.

 

My personal favorite was the moment I slammed the door on a 4,500 lb SUV and the entire car literally slid a foot sideways... thankfully, away from me, because I was standing on glare ice, holding a toddler with absolutely no ability to move.

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#36 scottz

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 11:37 AM

 

Given how this month started, it's kind of hard to believe we might get good home opener weather.

 

I'm. So. Done. With. Winter.

As. If. On. Cue.

 

Are we done with winter? Will the weather for the opener be good? Man, it's stuff like this that makes people hate meteorologists. The 06Z run today picks up a bit of the cold air mass trying to fight it's way south. And as the warm air from the south tries to move north on the east side of low pressure, it rises as it moves above the colder air in place. And when it rises, it cools, and the water vapor in it condenses. Clouds form, and maybe we get some gentle showers. Today, I'll add a couple of precip panels.

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

GFS - Big, big change from yesterday. Big change. 46 (59). It looks horrible because yesterday's was so optimistic. But that warm optimism followed by a big drop is pretty in line with what happened the last two days of FV3. Speaking of which...

FV3 - Pretty close to yesterday. 48 (46).

 

On the precipitation panels that I'm adding, you can see how both models show a little bit of rain as the warm air moves north. These panels show 6 hour (between 1PM and 7PM) average precipitation rates in mm/hr, so this isn't an obvious washout or anything. But it's there. Don't read too much into this other than showers happen sometimes in spring. The 12Z model runs for both GFS and FV3 show less precip during this 6 hour period. Also don't read too much into because it's the first one I showed you. Also, the blue and red dashed lines are basically the markers of cold and warm air, as you might have guessed. The rain-snow line typically ends up being right around the 540 line. Which is why Rapid City shows blue/snow. It's on the wrong side of that line. If winter is over over, we would really like to say on the warm side of that line. Saturday's 12Z FV3 shows the 510 line right through the Twin Cities. GFS says 528. Both models suggest Saturday snow. BUT THIS POST IS ABOUT THE OPENER.

 

Ensemble USA - A couple of models jumping to warm while the rest continue yesterday's trend of coming closer to agreement. Coldest model run is 39 (36). The warmest model hops back up to 63 (58). The mean slides back up to 51 (49).

Ensemble Euro - Euro's cold model warms all the way to 44 (37). The warmest is a really warm 68 (65). Overall warming in all the models as the mean jumps up to 57 (51). The 90% percentile estimate for max temp climbs all the way to 65 (57), and the 10% percentile estimate rockets to 50 (43). Euro's main run also moves warm to 61 (57).

 

So where do we stand? I still think that the home opener will be a decent day. Maybe becoming more cloudy as the day goes on. And then a stupid weekend of too cold for baseball with some snow. Still lots of time between now and then. We'll see.

2019-03-21.png

2019-03-21 precip.png

Edited by scottz, 21 March 2019 - 11:39 AM.

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#37 nicksaviking

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 11:57 AM

Recant or ye shall be dubbed a blasphemous witch!


#38 scottz

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 12:00 PM

 

Recant or ye shall be dubbed a blasphemous witch!

But I weigh less than a duck!

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#39 scottz

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Posted 22 March 2019 - 12:09 PM

Back to warm. That's my analysis for today. Back to warm.

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

GFS - Maybe yesterday was the pessimistic outlier. Maybe tomorrow will point to today as the outlier. The models - they are confused. But for now, warming. 54 (46). Look at those 70s pushing into South Dakota.

FV3 - Warming. 55 (48). Look at those 70s pushing into South Dakota.

On the precipitation panels, note how the center of low pressure is pretty close between these two models. So at least for today, at least for this run, they agree.

2019-03-22 precip.png

 

Ensemble USA - Warming. Warming on the cold end. 47 (39). Warming on the warm end. 67 (63). Warming at the mean. 54 (51). The models in this ensemble all have pretty good agreement for the next 4-5 days. After that, confusion reins on the 28th. Then, they all agree it'll get colder. Take a look.

usa 20190322.png

 

It's not uncommon to see this and it is to be expected - the farther away, the harder to predict (short of just using historical averages). But it's sort of amusing to watch how rapidly things diverge. All because of low pressure coming out of the Rockies, and going...somewhere.

Ensemble Euro - The coldest model cools. 41 (44). As does the warmest. 65 (68). So does the mean, slightly. 56 (57). The 90% percentile estimate for max cools also. 63 (65). And the 10% percentile estimate, too 49 (50). But the main run? That thing heats up. 65 (61).

 

Where to end up with a forecast? Honestly, there is so much warmth in this run overall that I just don't believe it. But this is also the first time that all the models kind of had aspects of the same thing (warming) occurring at the same time, so maybe I should believe it. I'll stick with a variation of what I've been saying. Thursday = good for baseball. Saturday-Sunday = no good for baseball.

 

I had a professor tell me that he didn't truly trust anything more than 5 days out. He also said there is a certain amount of art in the science of reading trends in the various models longer than 5 days out, and some forecasters get very good at it. I sure will be curious to see how this all plays out.

2019-03-22.png

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#40 Dave The Dastardly

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Posted 22 March 2019 - 01:25 PM

"The models - they are confused."

 

I always wondered why they walk so funny down that runway.

 

 

Saw three flights of geese headed north this morning and a coon ripped down my wife's bird feeder last night before breaking into my grill and licking off last summer's grease. Counted ten deer in the backyard this morning, sleeping in. Based on those sure signs of spring I predict south winds, lots of antacids and hangovers for the Home Opener.

 

Oh, and 55 degrees.

 

I am one with nature.

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