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Weather for the Home Opener

weather opener forecast march
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#1 scottz

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 09:33 AM

My degree is in meteorology and, while I never forecasted as a profession, I've always maintained an interest in forecasting. When I heard that the Twins home opener was March 28, I laughed and laughed as I thought about just how bad the weather could be. Of course, March weather can be quite nice, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Well, we are close enough now that the weather models are beginning to make their various declarations and I thought it would be fun to post them here, both to give us something to look forward to, and to keep a running diary of how things change over a two week period in the world of weather models.

 

Though I can't promise I'll remember to post every day (I'll be unavailable the last few days before the opener), I hope you enjoy it. I also hope that you appreciate the difficulty of predicting the weather. It is easy (and quite fun) to make fun of meteorologists and weather forecasts, but there is an awful lot of impressive work done in this field.

 

If any of you want to check out a couple of sites and snoop around, go for it!

https://www.tropical...nalysis/models/

https://weather.us/f...is/ensemble/usa

 

Hopefully the picture shows up/attaches and you can see that one model (GFS) shows a temperature around 45. Another (FV3) shows a temperature in the mid- to upper-30s. An ensemble of several different models show temperatures ranging from the lowest forecast of 35 and the highest/most optimistic model forecasting 65. The average of this ensemble is 49. All of these forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

I won't get into precipitation just yet.

 

Enjoy?

 

(EDIT: Picture issue solved.)

Attached Thumbnails

  • 2019-03-13.png

Edited by scottz, 13 March 2019 - 09:41 AM.

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#2 dbminn

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 09:56 AM

Based on scientific evidence, March is "in like a lion, out like a lamb". The temperature will be 52F on opening day. :D

 

I'll check back if the groundhog differs with my prediction.

 

 

Edited by dbminn, 13 March 2019 - 09:57 AM.

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#3 amjgt

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 10:11 AM

I'll just check the farmers almanac and assume it's going to be right.

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#4 scottz

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 10:56 AM

 

Based on scientific evidence, March is "in like a lion, out like a lamb". The temperature will be 52F on opening day. :D

 

I'll check back if the groundhog differs with my prediction.

 

Historical average high temp for March 28th is 48. A prediction of 52 seems well within the bounds of reason.

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#5 scottz

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 10:57 AM

 

I'll just check the farmers almanac and assume it's going to be right.

 

Always trust a farmer. It's written by farmers, right?

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#6 spanman2

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 11:02 AM

Sign me up for 52 and sun with very very light winds if any at all.

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#7 dbminn

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 11:07 AM

 

Historical average high temp for March 28th is 48. A prediction of 52 seems well within the bounds of reason.

 

 

Always trust a farmer. It's written by farmers, right?

 

I'm busted. We have a family farm. While we don't get the Farmer's Almanac, our family has kept weather records (for the most part) since the early 1900s. 

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#8 Doomtints

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 05:45 PM

Those temps are fine if it's not windy.

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#9 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 06:18 PM

 

Based on scientific evidence, March is "in like a lion, out like a lamb". The temperature will be 52F on opening day. :D

 

I'll check back if the groundhog differs with my prediction.

Groundhog said early spring.... I think it's time to put him down...

 

I'm going with 4 inches of snow and a high of 30.

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#10 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 06:26 PM

Historical average high temp for March 28th is 48. A prediction of 52 seems well within the bounds of reason.

The problem with historical averages is that the climate ain’t what it used to be, if you know what I mean.
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#11 ashbury

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 06:31 PM

The problem with historical averages is that the climate ain’t what it used to be, if you know what I mean.

Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. -- Noah

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#12 scottz

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 10:09 PM

 

The problem with historical averages is that the climate ain’t what it used to be, if you know what I mean.

Historical averages or historical normals cited here and commonly elsewhere - the "climate data" for a given site - are 30 year averages updated upon the completion of a decade. Current historical averages are from 1981-2010 data. The previous historical averages were 1971-2000, and before that 1961-1990, and so on. Any change in climate, for whatever reason or cause, would be captured by the most current 10 year period replacing the oldest 10 year period.

 

So, there's not a problem with historical averages, even if I don't know what you mean, if you know what I mean.

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#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 10:41 PM

 

Historical averages or historical normals cited here and commonly elsewhere - the "climate data" for a given site - are 30 year averages updated upon the completion of a decade. Current historical averages are from 1981-2010 data. The previous historical averages were 1971-2000, and before that 1961-1990, and so on. Any change in climate, for whatever reason or cause, would be captured by the most current 10 year period replacing the oldest 10 year period.

 

So, there's not a problem with historical averages, even if I don't know what you mean, if you know what I mean.

Yep. And if things change rapidly and are outside the norm, then historical averages don't mean a whole lot, even if you weight them. Which is pretty much... what's happening now.

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#14 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 05:35 AM

Can we please avoid turning this thread into a discussion on climate change?

 

Thanks.

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#15 Platoon

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 05:55 AM

Here's an observation based on history for you, despite the fact that I have no records whatsoever on this topic. :). It's generally not a good idea to plan a major outdoor event in MN for late March, outdoors. Add in the necessity of intricate athletic machinatitions and the likelihood of a large group of people sitting for three hours mostly unprotected, and the odds of it being a comfortable event or experience are historically poor. :):)
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#16 scottz

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 09:18 AM

 

Can we please avoid turning this thread into a discussion on climate change?

 

Thanks.

No, no. Thank YOU.

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#17 scottz

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 10:02 AM

Here's your updated home opener (temperature) forecast. Most, but not all, changes have been for the warmer. At 14 days out, it still means about as much as spring training statistics, but we can be optimistic if we choose to be.

 

You'll notice that I have added a Euro ensemble to the mix. The reason for this is that the USA ensemble is a 16 day run while the Euro is a 15 day run (and therefore, was unavailable yesterday for March 28).

 

Today's forecast is included for each in bold, as well as in the attached photos. Yesterday's forecast is in parentheses for each model. Again, all of these forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - It takes a bit of interpolating, but for Minneapolis, I'd say the forecast number is around 46-48 (45). Note the change in the temps to our south and west. Warmth optimism from GFS.

FV3 - A high around 41 (38), but also some of the same warming trend to the south and west. A 51 on the border between SD and NE where a 28 showed up yesterday.

Ensemble USA - Low end drops to 25 (35) while the top end increases to 68 (65). The average of this ensemble overall drops a little at 46 (49).

Ensemble Euro - Similar to USA, the coldest model on the low end at 28, with the warmest at 62. The mean is 45. Euro gives a 90% percentile estimate of the models at 54, and a 10% shot at 34.

 

No precip discussion yet. Maybe this weekend or Monday. Enjoy or ignore to your heart's content!

2019-03-14.png

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#18 scottz

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 10:06 AM

 

Yep. And if things change rapidly and are outside the norm, then historical averages don't mean a whole lot, even if you weight them. Which is pretty much... what's happening now.

Just closing one part of this subthread to address "weighting". The historical averages aren't weighted. The datasets change, but no data from any year/day/hour is given more weight than any other. Just wanted to clear that up.

 

If you want to discuss further, feel free to message me!


#19 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 11:40 AM

scottz - Thanks for doing this! It will be fun to follow.

Not as much fun as tracking Buxton, but still...

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#20 scottz

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 03:08 PM

 

scottz - Thanks for doing this! It will be fun to follow.

Not as much fun as tracking Buxton, but still...

You're welcome!

 

I totally agree. I hope Buxton's play continues to forecast 72 and sunny with a gentle breeze.

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