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Article: Report From The Fort: Measure What Matters

kyle gibson jose berrios addison reed rocco baldelli
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#21 Original Whizzinator

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 07:01 AM

because you can’t argue with the cop. You have to make your case with the judge. Heck of a lot of work for a $150 speeding ticket, but .... https://www.pennlive...cketed_for.html
Now you’ll notice it’s not exactly apples to apples as it’s not the same device.
Point is, technology is fallible.

I read the article and the faulty device mentioned isn't even a radar gun. When they do mention a radar gun failing it's because more than one vehicle are close together moving at different speeds. So I guess your right as long as the pitcher throws two balls.

#22 bunt_vs_the_shift

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 07:05 AM

 

To each their own.As far as I have seen no one has made any kind of sustained effort to lay down bunts to beat the shift. I am not talking sacrifice bunts.Buxton beating out a bunt is one of my favorite things to watch and I love what it does to the other teams psyche.

I'm sure this is shocking given the handle, but I agree. I don't understand why a walk is considered a win when it comes to getting on base, but a bunt is somehow a lesser achievement. Not only did it require more skill, but as mentioned, it also plays with the psyche of your opponent. 

 

I'ts simply adjusting to the adjustment of the defensive alignment. Even showing them that you'll do it once or twice a game could open up the field for your more standard approach. There's obvious context you would have to apply in terms of who is on base and when you would do this, but why would you swing the bat when they are in essence, giving you an intentional walk? The fact that there's reduced defensive emphasis on it should only make it more effective. 


#23 Thrylos

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 07:17 AM

 

The magnificent LEN111 is reporting that Gonsalves was back to 88-91 in his latest outing.

 

His latest outing was not at Hammond.Different gun

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#24 Original Whizzinator

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 08:01 AM

His latest outing was not at Hammond.Different gun


The plot thickens...

#25 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 08:39 AM

I read the article and the faulty device mentioned isn't even a radar gun. When they do mention a radar gun failing it's because more than one vehicle are close together moving at different speeds. So I guess your right as long as the pitcher throws two balls.


Police radar guns can be miscalibrated though.
You can demand records of calibration for a speeding ticket, and if they haven't been properly calibrated and/or recorded, you can get the ticket dismissed.
Some cops will even provide the reports on the scene, if you ask.
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#26 Doctor Wu

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 08:54 AM

 

His latest outing was not at Hammond.Different gun

Sounds like the voting machines they use in Florida too. No consistency!


#27 ashbury

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 09:07 AM

How dare you say DL.  The politically correct mob has forced a change from the Disabled List to the Injured List.

 

Sounds like the voting machines they use in Florida too. No consistency!

Moderator's note: While meant in good fun I'm sure, this kind of tangent doesn't belong in the baseball threads.

I don't have to tell you it goes without saying there are some things better left unsaid. I think that speaks for itself. The less said about it, the better. -- George Carlin


#28 Parker Hageman

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 09:24 AM

Hammond's gun may or may not run hot but a scout confirmed that Perez was hitting 97 on his stalker. 

 

As far as Gonsalves' velocity ebb and flow, Wes Johnson said he sees that as a typical progress for those increasing velocity. Pitchers make their tweaks and are just learning to incorporate it on the mound. Velocity can jump up a tick or two and go back down.  

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#29 Tibs

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 09:41 AM

 

I'm sure this is shocking given the handle, but I agree. I don't understand why a walk is considered a win when it comes to getting on base, but a bunt is somehow a lesser achievement. Not only did it require more skill, but as mentioned, it also plays with the psyche of your opponent. 

 

I'ts simply adjusting to the adjustment of the defensive alignment. Even showing them that you'll do it once or twice a game could open up the field for your more standard approach. There's obvious context you would have to apply in terms of who is on base and when you would do this, but why would you swing the bat when they are in essence, giving you an intentional walk? The fact that there's reduced defensive emphasis on it should only make it more effective. 

There are numerous reasons to not bunt against the shift. On your first point about a walk vs a bunt, I'll talk the walk every time. A walk is a free base 100% of the time. You still have to execute a bunt. You could bunt the ball right in front of the plate or right back to the pitcher. You could pop up the bunt. You still have to put the ball in play and beat it out. A lot of things can go wrong.

 

Who on the Twins would you rather see bunt than swing away ever? You're giving up the opportunity for extra base hits if you bunt, meaning you score less runs.

 

Lastly, teams aren't going to change their defensive philosophy just because someone laid down a few bunts against a shift. Their defensive philosophy is based off of hundreds or even thousands of plate appearances. They aren't changing that because Miguel Sano laid down a few bunts. They would actually probably prefer that over him swinging away.

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#30 Sconnie

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 10:30 AM

 

There are numerous reasons to not bunt against the shift. On your first point about a walk vs a bunt, I'll talk the walk every time. A walk is a free base 100% of the time. You still have to execute a bunt. You could bunt the ball right in front of the plate or right back to the pitcher. You could pop up the bunt. You still have to put the ball in play and beat it out. A lot of things can go wrong.

 

Who on the Twins would you rather see bunt than swing away ever? You're giving up the opportunity for extra base hits if you bunt, meaning you score less runs.

 

Lastly, teams aren't going to change their defensive philosophy just because someone laid down a few bunts against a shift. Their defensive philosophy is based off of hundreds or even thousands of plate appearances. They aren't changing that because Miguel Sano laid down a few bunts. They would actually probably prefer that over him swinging away.

bingo! if Miguel Sano bunts against the shift, the shift worked


#31 caninatl04

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 11:05 AM

I seem to remember that some on this site were against one year contracts. Exhibit A: Addison Reed.

#32 bunt_vs_the_shift

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 01:46 PM

 

There are numerous reasons to not bunt against the shift. On your first point about a walk vs a bunt, I'll talk the walk every time. A walk is a free base 100% of the time. You still have to execute a bunt. You could bunt the ball right in front of the plate or right back to the pitcher. You could pop up the bunt. You still have to put the ball in play and beat it out. A lot of things can go wrong.

 

Who on the Twins would you rather see bunt than swing away ever? You're giving up the opportunity for extra base hits if you bunt, meaning you score less runs.

 

Lastly, teams aren't going to change their defensive philosophy just because someone laid down a few bunts against a shift. Their defensive philosophy is based off of hundreds or even thousands of plate appearances. They aren't changing that because Miguel Sano laid down a few bunts. They would actually probably prefer that over him swinging away.

 

Is there skill required to drop a bunt down? Yes. Is there skill required to take a walk? Usually.

 

Is the same skill level required to drop a bunt down vs. a normal alignment as with a shift when you have the entire left side of the infield open? Of course not. It is considerably less difficult to push a ball to the left side when no one is playing 3rd or even short sometimes. If you put it in play and don't pop it up near the pitcher or catcher it's a hit. 

 

But let's take your premise. Yes, you give up the opportunity for that extra base. You are trading that for extending the inning for your team and giving the next batter an opportunity, just as with a walk. I believe that even a player who bunts infrequently should be able to get down 1 of 2 successfully (and yes, I believe against a pronounced shift, that means it's a hit), but for argument's sake, let's say it's 1 of 3. 

 

You asked, who would I like to see do this for the Twins? The answer depends on the context of the game (the inning, score, etc.) but if I'm using a 1 of 3 success rate as the number, I believe only Mauer and Escobar had a higher OBP than .333 of the starters. I'm not saying I want Sano to start laying down bunts, but rally killers like Castro when they're shifting? Guys who are scuffling, especially if they have a little speed? Yes. 

 

It's the same concept as a slump-busting bloop or a seeing eye single and I would argue that any sort of hit has a psychological impact on the confidence of the hitter, so you have an intangible value there, not to mention how it frustrates the opponent. 

 

Finally, if this were done more consistently within those parameters do I think teams will adjust their alignment? Yes. 

 

 

 

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#33 h2oface

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 02:06 PM

 

bingo! if Miguel Sano bunts against the shift, the shift worked

 

With a 40% K rate..... and a .211 average..... I would often take a bunt. 

Way more exciting than a walk, and fielders have just as much chance throwing it away for more bases as the poor power hitter has of hitting into the shift or striking out or grounding out or walking or......

 

Maybe Sano will actually be on the field at some point this year..... what a fiasco.

Edited by h2oface, 05 March 2019 - 02:08 PM.


#34 USAFChief

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 02:19 PM

 

There are numerous reasons to not bunt against the shift. On your first point about a walk vs a bunt, I'll talk the walk every time. A walk is a free base 100% of the time. You still have to execute a bunt. You could bunt the ball right in front of the plate or right back to the pitcher. You could pop up the bunt. You still have to put the ball in play and beat it out. A lot of things can go wrong.

 

Who on the Twins would you rather see bunt than swing away ever? You're giving up the opportunity for extra base hits if you bunt, meaning you score less runs.

 

Lastly, teams aren't going to change their defensive philosophy just because someone laid down a few bunts against a shift. Their defensive philosophy is based off of hundreds or even thousands of plate appearances. They aren't changing that because Miguel Sano laid down a few bunts. They would actually probably prefer that over him swinging away.

While I'm also not a fan of bunting, even for hits, there are times when I do think it would be a good idea for LH hitters, facing extreme shifts with 3rd base abandoned by the defense, to bunt for a hit. Kepler and Rosario, for example, should be able to bunt for a hit with nobody on base quite easily. You don't need much skill, just bunt it hard towards the left side. There's nobody there to field it.

 

RH hitters (such as Sano) don't have the same opportunities to bunt against shifts.

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#35 MN_ExPat

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 10:51 AM

 

because you can’t argue with the cop. You have to make your case with the judge. Heck of a lot of work for a $150 speeding ticket, but .... https://www.pennlive...cketed_for.html

Now you’ll notice it’s not exactly apples to apples as it’s not the same device.

Point is, technology is fallible.

Yes, technology is fallible.There are however a number of factors that can influence the reading that the device gives you.

 

Just for discussion purposes. One of the more common devices that teams/scouts/etc. use, is made by Stalker (and Stalker is also one of the more common brands used by law enforcement agencies as well :)). Stalker is also pretty good quality for the most part.

 

That being said, some of the biggest factors that influence the reading that the radar gives you are wind interference, other objects in the way or traveling along with the object, and probably one of the greatest culprits is how far off the center of path of travel the device is from the object being tracked (the greater the degree of separation from path of travel and the device, the larger the deviation from the actual speed).

 

Also, we tend to not often take into account maintenance.If the device is not maintained or stored properly, heat, humidity, bumping or jarring can take their toll and cause the device to read improperly. Given the cost of most of these, you can guess that they are used as long as possible.The most common hand held Stalker for example runs between $400 and $600 per unit, while I believe Rapsodo and Trackman (?) run about $3500+ per unit.

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#36 Jham

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 11:12 AM

There are numerous reasons to not bunt against the shift. On your first point about a walk vs a bunt, I'll talk the walk every time. A walk is a free base 100% of the time. You still have to execute a bunt. You could bunt the ball right in front of the plate or right back to the pitcher. You could pop up the bunt. You still have to put the ball in play and beat it out. A lot of things can go wrong.

Who on the Twins would you rather see bunt than swing away ever? You're giving up the opportunity for extra base hits if you bunt, meaning you score less runs.

Lastly, teams aren't going to change their defensive philosophy just because someone laid down a few bunts against a shift. Their defensive philosophy is based off of hundreds or even thousands of plate appearances. They aren't changing that because Miguel Sano laid down a few bunts. They would actually probably prefer that over him swinging away.


The nice thing about stats is that it can simply very complex analysis. It's drawback is that it can simplify very complex analysis. The stats regarding shifting and bunting are all based on historical data that may or may not apply to the evolving game. "never bunt" (based on run production) evolved into sometimes bunt, even sacrifice,
when it's late and close (based on win %)... Further analysis showed that very successful bunters or perhaps poor sluggers may make the bunt a good play.

But the historical data doesn't take shifts into account. and counts bunting for hits the same way as sacrificing. And a lot of the data is pitchers I'd imagine. Anyway, there's a tipping point for every player where bunting becomes a good play which also happens to be situation dependent. Bottom line, nothing is absolute. People can argue all they want because they're both right.
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#37 Jham

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 11:16 AM

bingo! if Miguel Sano bunts against the shift, the shift worked


What if it's extra innings at Target Field with a runners on the corners 1 out?

"Those idiots gave up a chance at more runs!"

#38 ashbury

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 12:45 PM

What if it's extra innings at Target Field with a runners on the corners 1 out?

"Those idiots gave up a chance at more runs!"

Are shifts leaving third base uncovered common in that scenario?

I don't have to tell you it goes without saying there are some things better left unsaid. I think that speaks for itself. The less said about it, the better. -- George Carlin


#39 Jham

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 02:15 PM

Are shifts leaving third base uncovered common in that scenario?

No, but the right side may still shift with the entire infield playing back at double play depth. You can use Ken Griffey Jr or Bryce Harper if it helps. And since it's all hypothetical, we can also assume some of the infielders are giant penguins. It makes me smile to think about and it still drives home the idea that at some time, you reach a tipping point where the smart play is to bunt. To me, for most players in most situations, the tipping point is 2 or more penguins in the infield.* (not supported by data, very sss)

Edited by Jham, 06 March 2019 - 02:16 PM.

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#40 ashbury

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 02:34 PM

Ron Cey retired some time ago. :)

I don't have to tell you it goes without saying there are some things better left unsaid. I think that speaks for itself. The less said about it, the better. -- George Carlin




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