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Article: BREAKING: Twins Flip Granite To Rangers

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#81 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 02:57 PM

 

Who else would they hire if they want to crunch numbers?

 

I think a lot of the stuff on Fangraphs is nonsense (though it's much better than BA), but I recognize they have the market cornered.

 

thousands of applicants who know stats? They literally hired the guy that "invented" KATOH, among others. 

 

I really don't think we need more data than that, to know that FOs disagree strongly that Fangraphs is bunk.....

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#82 Doomtints

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:32 PM

 

thousands of applicants who know stats? They literally hired the guy that "invented" KATOH, among others. 

 

I really don't think we need more data than that, to know that FOs disagree strongly that Fangraphs is bunk.....

 

I'm betting most executives think a lot of the numbers on Fangraphs are bunk, yes. They'd be crazy not to. Everyone has metrics they like and don't like.

 

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#83 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:35 PM

 

I'm betting most executives think a lot of the numbers on Fangraphs are bunk, yes. They'd be crazy not to. Everyone has metrics they like and don't like.

 

Then why do they keep hiring the people from there?

 

I really think people are looking for accuracy, in models of human based outcomes, that aren't realistic....

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#84 Doomtints

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:39 PM

I would imagine they want statisticians who are also baseball nerds, though they may find the math skills aren't quite what they were expecting with some of these guys.....

 

I worked with "numbers people" who have no clue what they heck they are looking at. It takes a keen eye to spot things that stick out in a mountain of data. Few people have the skill, even in the circle of people who build these massive databases.

 

Besides, what kinds of salaries are we talking about? $50k? $75k? These are upgrades for a lot of people but nothing to a baseball team.

Edited by Doomtints, 05 March 2019 - 03:39 PM.

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#85 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:41 PM

 

I'm betting most executives think a lot of the numbers on Fangraphs are bunk, yes. They'd be crazy not to. Everyone has metrics they like and don't like.

I'm thinking you mean projections and prospect rankings and such, instead of numbers.


#86 Doomtints

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:44 PM

I mean numbers. I don't trust the majority of algorithms on fangraphs.

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#87 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:45 PM

 

I would imagine they want statisticians who are also baseball nerds, though they may find the math skills aren't quite what they were expecting with some of these guys.....

 

I worked with "numbers people" who have no clue what they heck they are looking at. It takes a keen eye to spot things that stick out in a mountain of data. Few people have the skill, even in the circle of people who build these massive databases.

 

Besides, what kinds of salaries are we talking about? $50k? $75k? These are upgrades for a lot of people but nothing to a baseball team.

 

Well, a lot of the new execs barely have baseball experience........

 

Whatever, for some people, no amount of evidence will matter, WAR is dumb, etc.....

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#88 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:50 PM

"Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I haven’t talked with teams about things, I’ve done something that involved me getting paid for nearly half the teams in baseball (and almost as many agencies)"

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#89 nicksaviking

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:53 PM

 

I mean numbers. I don't trust the majority of algorithms on fangraphs.

 

I doubt the guys teams are hiring away are using algorithms on fangraphs, otherwise why wouldn't these teams just bookmark fangraphs and instead pay an intern to read it to them?

 

The guys who are getting hired away, and there are a lot of them, are almost certainly good at parsing the information, and also likely able to create new, team specified algorithms, tests, statistics and evaluations.

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#90 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 03:55 PM

In no way am I arguing Fangraphs' stats are perfect, but to say they are bunk and useless and not any good at all? Seems like teams wouldn't be hiring them then....

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#91 Doomtints

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 04:07 PM

 

I doubt the guys teams are hiring away are using algorithms on fangraphs, otherwise why wouldn't these teams just bookmark fangraphs and instead pay an intern to read it to them?

 

The guys who are getting hired away, and there are a lot of them, are almost certainly good at parsing the information, and also likely able to create new, team specified algorithms, tests, statistics and evaluations.

 

I'm not even sure what you're arguing about here. 

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#92 nicksaviking

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 04:20 PM

 

I'm not even sure what you're arguing about here. 

 

It seems to me you're implying that the guys working at fangraphs don't know what they're doing by arguing that you don't like the output of fangraphs. 

 

I'm arguing that once these guys are hired away, they're likely not using the output of fangraphs, they are talented enough individuals to create new things specific for their new clubs.


#93 markos

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Posted 05 March 2019 - 10:08 PM

 

In no way am I arguing Fangraphs' stats are perfect, but to say they are bunk and useless and not any good at all? Seems like teams wouldn't be hiring them then....

Beyond just the specific stats, it is pretty clear that most Fangraphs writers and analysts THINK about baseball the same way front offices do. If you go to any of the sports analytics conferences (like Sloan, SABR Analytics, Saberseminar) and listen to the front office folks talk about baseball, they speak in the same language as Fangraphs. Concepts like valuing every event in runs, replacement level, sample size, converting runs to wins, surplus value, competitive windows, projection systems and on and on are considered common knowledge. So while every team probably has their own (probably better) way of valuing events or making projections, the framework they use to fit all these pieces are very similar to the information that Fangraphs is presenting.

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#94 Doomtints

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 10:00 AM

 

It seems to me you're implying that the guys working at fangraphs don't know what they're doing by arguing that you don't like the output of fangraphs. 

 

I'm arguing that once these guys are hired away, they're likely not using the output of fangraphs, they are talented enough individuals to create new things specific for their new clubs.

 

And I'm saying you don't know what they are being paid. Are they being paid $200k or $50k? If they are being paid closer to $50k (and they probably are), let's not overestimate their value to the franchise. Teams are rolling the dice.

 

Are they being paid as experts or consultants, or are they taking a job at any rate doing what they love to do? I would bet it's the latter. This is still win-win for both parties involved.

 

We simply don't have enough information to know how much MLB truly is investing in these guys. Are they hiring them to be brainchilds of the future ($$$), or are they hiring them because they know they will be dedicated workers who will happily move numbers around for them ($)?

Edited by Doomtints, 06 March 2019 - 10:23 AM.

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#95 ashbury

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 12:02 PM

Traditional scouts don't usually net six-figures either. Are the teams just rolling the dice with them? Sure, in a sense, but they also treat the information with respect and as having value.

 

Baseball doesn't pay much, compared to other industries, for pretty much any except the top-end jobs, for all the reasons you mention. You're setting an arbitrarily high bar there.

 

If the goal is player evaluation, then data mining and analytics being considered on a par with traditional resources sounds pretty good to me.

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#96 David HK

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 07:15 PM

I liked Granite a lot.I'm hoping he gets a good chance with the Rangers, and wish him well.

 

On the other hand, wasn't he on the 40? And does that leave a spot? 

 

And is Kimbrel still out there?


#97 Aaron Cross

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 07:30 PM

Does this really qualify as breaking news? Granite had become an afterthought. He was redundant as another LH outfielder behind Rosario, Kepler, Cave, and Wade.

I would put this in the category of "Other Minor League Notes".

I thought he was awful. This pitching prospect must be a real winner.

#98 spycake

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 07:48 PM

On the other hand, wasn't he on the 40? And does that leave a spot?


Granite was DFA'd to add Marwin Gonzalez. So the 40-man is still full.

#99 David HK

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Posted 08 March 2019 - 12:02 AM

 

Granite was DFA'd to add Marwin Gonzalez. So the 40-man is still full.

I see.

 

Drat.




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