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Article: BREAKING: Twins Flip Granite To Rangers

zack granite trade
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#41 ashbury

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 07:24 AM

According to this Fangraphs article (from one year ago), Granite is the sixth best prospect in the game, projected to amass 10WAR over the first six seasons of his big-league career. Presumably a lot of that value is centered around his defense.

https://blogs.fangra...atoh-prospects/

You probably want to change "Granite is" to "Granite was."

 

From the article: "It incorporates age, offensive performance, defensive performance, and other characteristics from the past two seasons."

 

I am going to stick my neck out and guess that incorporating 2018 stats into this methodology has dropped Zack's projection a little. :)

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#42 dbminn

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 07:57 AM

 

another example for my "Fangraphs is nonsense" file.

 

KATOH was developed to serve a particular purpose. It was a statistics-only double check on minor leaguers. From the first paragraph of the link:

 

"There are certainly drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objectivity, the projections can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated."

 

It was never meant to be a stand-alone assessment of prospects.

 

From his 2018 All-KATOH article, where he identified players with potential outside the top 100:

 

"Of course, the fact that these players missed every top-100 list suggests that their physical tools are probably underwhelming. That’s very important information! Often times, the outlook for players like this is much worse than their minor-league stats would lead you to believe. There’s a reason people in the industry always say 'don’t scout the stat line.'"

 

There is a write-up of Granite in the linked article, explaining why scouts weren't as high on Granite as KATOH.

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#43 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 08:13 AM

Remember when Zack "should've taken over CF full time" to many Twins fans? IALTO


#44 markos

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 08:25 AM

 

Concur.

 

It's important to consider that they have relationships in place in the D.R., and fully staffed year-round facilities. We may never know if they had plans in advance for this cash, and we never find out how they invested it, but it's inconceivable to me that they don't have an option or two on the table.

I'm pretty sure that the Orioles didn't send any actual money to the Twins. The Twins just acquired international bonus pool space, which allows them to legally (from a MLB-perspective) spend more of their own money on international free agents between now and June 30.

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#45 jkcarew

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 08:26 AM

Three pages on Zack Granite? Looks like the TD community is rounding into shape and should be ready for the opener later this month.

Edited by jkcarew, 04 March 2019 - 08:27 AM.

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#46 ashbury

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 08:31 AM

I'm pretty sure that the Orioles didn't send any actual money to the Twins. The Twins just acquired international bonus pool space, which allows them to legally (from a MLB-perspective) spend more of their own money on international free agents between now and June 30.

Do we ever find out the magnitude of the cash considerations in a trade like this one with the Rangers? Probably it's not as high as $750K, but if it is, and thus matches up with the bonus pool space the Orioles sent, it would be an awesome instance of something resembling arbitrage, or at least the brokering of two transaction partners who don't line up well themselves.

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#47 MMMordabito

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 08:57 AM

 

If not already over, this will enable them to sign one or more late bloomers to contracts.Have to believe they have one or more players in mind if this is the case.Does anyone know anything about this?

 

I think the Twins have scouts down in Caracas with some Disney producers watching the spin rates on Molotov cocktails. A reboot or sequel to Million Dollar Arm incoming.


#48 blindeke

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 09:06 AM

Really unlucky injury for Granite kept him from being in the bigs for most of the season.

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#49 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 09:23 AM

so do international dollars carry over to the next season or do they have 800k available that they must use to get someone yet this season?

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#50 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 09:24 AM

 

I'm pretty sure that the Orioles didn't send any actual money to the Twins. The Twins just acquired international bonus pool space, which allows them to legally (from a MLB-perspective) spend more of their own money on international free agents between now and June 30.

 

 

Good point. You're right, the Twins received the rights to make that additional expenditure.


#51 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 09:27 AM

 

so do international dollars carry over to the next season or do they have 800k available that they must use to get someone yet this season?

 

Use it or lose the right to use it.

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#52 JD Green

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 09:30 AM

Thinking that Zach is a victim of a good farm system. Things start getting crowded, and some have to be moved on at times. Hoping for all the best for his future!

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#53 spycake

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 09:42 AM

 

Yeah, I agree with you, but at the same time I'm willing to give the front office the benefit of the doubt here. Hard to believe that they would take such a large chunk of money without having a plan for spending it on someone.

Is it that hard to believe, though? Once they DFA'd Granite, they may have discovered they were going to lose him, and had their choice of the following returns:

 

1. nothing (lost on waivers)

2. Xavier Moore

3. $750k international bonus money

 

I could see them preferring option #3 at that point, even without a specific plan on how to spend it. Given they only had $80k before, this gives them some wiggle room in case their scouts find an overlooked player this spring, and they can possibly sign them in the current period rather than taking out of their 2019-2020 pool come July.

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#54 spycake

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 09:51 AM

Obviously it's not a bad trade or anything, but it's hard to judge it too much without knowing the front office's intent too.

 

It's possible that they would have preferred to send Granite to Rochester, and they thought this was a good time to pass him through waivers, but then realized that wasn't going to happen after they DFA'd him and confirmed other teams interest. They'd still get some credit for pivoting and getting something, of course -- and we know this front office can pivot quickly (i.e. the Jaime Garcia trades).

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#55 spycake

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 10:13 AM

 

Do we ever find out the magnitude of the cash considerations in a trade like this one with the Rangers? Probably it's not as high as $750K, but if it is, and thus matches up with the bonus pool space the Orioles sent, it would be an awesome instance of something resembling arbitrage, or at least the brokering of two transaction partners who don't line up well themselves.

 

Usually we don't find out, and I suspect that in those cases it's a pretty nominal amount (basically the waiver fee?). I doubt it's anywhere near $750k here.

 

As for brokering, while the deals were announced in order as Twins-Rangers followed by Twins-Orioles, it seems likely that much of the brokering here already occurred directly between the Orioles and Rangers. Just a week ago, those two clubs made a trade involving another Rangers minor league pitcher and Orioles international bonus pool cash:

 

https://www.mlbtrade...om-orioles.html

 

Credit to the Twins for inserting themselves in the process, of course, if the alternative at this point was losing Granite for nothing.

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#56 spycake

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 10:27 AM

The Twins probably don't need him right now, but Granite probably did have some value to various rebuilding clubs. Obviously 2018 was a lost year for him, but a strong defensive CF with speed *and* who rarely strikes out at the plate (and is MLB ready) is an interesting asset. Not an upside prospect, but possibly a guy with a high floor who you can plug in at CF right away for a cheap 1-2 WAR regular.

 

Just in the Twins division, I could see the Royals and especially White Sox both being interested in a player like that. The White Sox depth chart shows Adam Engel at #1 in CF right now, and not much better in the corners either.

 

Both the Royals and White Sox were ahead of the Rangers in waiver priority too, which may have prompted this deal from the Rangers perspective.

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#57 Dman

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 12:45 PM

 

The Twins probably don't need him right now, but Granite probably did have some value to various rebuilding clubs. Obviously 2018 was a lost year for him, but a strong defensive CF with speed *and* who rarely strikes out at the plate (and is MLB ready) is an interesting asset. Not an upside prospect, but possibly a guy with a high floor who you can plug in at CF right away for a cheap 1-2 WAR regular.

 

Just in the Twins division, I could see the Royals and especially White Sox both being interested in a player like that. The White Sox depth chart shows Adam Engel at #1 in CF right now, and not much better in the corners either.

 

Both the Royals and White Sox were ahead of the Rangers in waiver priority too, which may have prompted this deal from the Rangers perspective.

 

Yeah I was wondering if dealing with the Rangers was more of a way to make sure Granite didn't get claimed by anyone in the division.I think both Detroit and Chicago could use outfield help and Cleveland could use a good 4th outfielder.Best to get a deal outside the division.

 

Granite doesn't have power but great speed can compensate for that as walks and singles can become doubles.I still think he is going to be a good player.Maybe not great but solid.However, I do like Cave and Wade better at this time so really no room for him here.

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#58 howieramone2

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 12:49 PM

 

Hard to believe there are many fifteen year olds left, and even harder to believe if there are, they don't already have verbal deals. But, still, great to get something for a guy Seth compares to Buxton.

Mike Radcliff said on Inside Twins that we are one of a handful of teams that will follow 16 and 17 year-olds. You may have noticed the pitcher we received in the Pressly trade was signed by the Astros at 19.

Edited by howieramone2, 04 March 2019 - 12:58 PM.

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#59 spycake

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 01:11 PM

 

Mike Radcliff said on Inside Twins that we are one of a handful of teams that will follow 16 and 17 year-olds. You may have noticed the pitcher we received in the Pressly trade was signed by the Astros at 19.

Alcala signed with the Astros at age 19 -- but it was only for a $10k bonus, which doesn't count against a team's international bonus pool.

 

https://www.reddit.c..._and_cf/e362fck


#60 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 04 March 2019 - 01:56 PM

 

Hard to believe there are many fifteen year olds left, and even harder to believe if there are, they don't already have verbal deals. But, still, great to get something for a guy Seth compares to Buxton.

 

They could also be looking at 16 year olds who have taken steps forward. Not many teams have a ton of cash right now, and those guys are available too. They could get 5 or so Graterol types for the money they have right now.... Obviously those are not sure things, but there's plenty of good IFA talent that came through on cheap bonuses.

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