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Article: Hot Spring: 9 Twins Takes to Rev You Up for Baseball

byron buxton miguel sano alex kirilloff fernando romero
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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 10:35 AM

In a quick look on the internet, the only recent study I can find, showed that an average of sixty percent of players did worse their second year on offense, than their first. However, that study did not control for the fact that batting averages were declining across the league....

The other studies I saw said that players regress to the mean their second year, but most players regress to the mean, that's why it's the mean.....

So, not surprisingly, some players play worse, some better.....
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#22 jkcarew

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 10:52 AM

Not sure Sano striking out 200 times would be a bad thing. It would mean he was healthy...and if it comes with a lot of walks and HR's...but, yeah it would be fantastic if all that came with fewer K's.

 

fwiw, if Buxton has the fantastic year that many here predict (hope) will happen, he could be real close to 200 K's, as well. At his career rate, that would only take a little over 600 PA. At the 550 PA you cite for Sano, Buxton would get rung up 175 times...so he better be hitting the ball over the fence, as well.

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#23 jorgenswest

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 10:53 AM

In a quick look on the internet, the only recent study I can find, showed that an average of sixty percent of players did worse their second year on offense, than their first. However, that study did not control for the fact that batting averages were declining across the league....
The other studies I saw said that players regress to the mean their second year, but most players regress to the mean, that's why it's the mean.....
So, not surprisingly, some players play worse, some better.....


Thanks. To add...

If players aren’t performing they don’t get a continued opportunity the first year. There is a bias in the group towards players performing above their skill level and mean. It is only natural that the group will trend towards their mean in year 2.
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#24 Nick Nelson

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 05:10 PM

 

fwiw, if Buxton has the fantastic year that many here predict (hope) will happen, he could be real close to 200 K's, as well. At his career rate, that would only take a little over 600 PA. At the 550 PA you cite for Sano, Buxton would get rung up 175 times...so he better be hitting the ball over the fence, as well.

I guess the difference is that I expect Buxton to eventually lower his baseline K-rate. He struck out at a 27% rate from June-Sept in 2017 and I think he'll eventually sustain around there. 

 

Sano might bring his K-rate down a little but I don't think he'll ever be below the mid-30s. It's just who he is. 


#25 Otwins

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 09:59 PM

Why not take care of #8 before the season starts.SIgn Craig Kimbrel.Why wait until the bullpen struggles and we fall behind Cleveland. My guess is Kimbrel ends up signing a three year deal around 50 million.


#26 jkcarew

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 10:34 PM

 

I guess the difference is that I expect Buxton to eventually lower his baseline K-rate. He struck out at a 27% rate from June-Sept in 2017 and I think he'll eventually sustain around there. 

 

Sano might bring his K-rate down a little but I don't think he'll ever be below the mid-30s. It's just who he is.

Sano is who he is. Meanwhile, Buxton is going to revert to the two hottest months of his career?

 

Buxton's K-rate was 32%, with 3 HR over 109 PA in sept/oct of 2017....what had been found in August was already becoming lost again by the time that season ended.

 

Do I think Buxton can make substantial and sustainable adjustments? Yes. Do I think he has a track record of being able to do that so far. No. I don't see Buxton as being any different than Sano in that regard. I'm cautiously optimistic that they both start breaking through in 2019.

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#27 adorduan

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 08:26 AM

Another thing that is going to be hurt Jake Cave's chances of improving on what he did last year is playing time.He's not going to be in the lineup everyday like the last 3 months of last year.


#28 rv78

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 08:53 AM

Thanks for the play by play. Now I won't have to watch this season.


#29 Penthang

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 09:01 AM

When talking about “the two hottest months” of Buxtons career what is being forgotten is the years of pro ball in the minors. Buxton pretty much struggled each time he got to a new level, then adapted and then was the hottest hitter on the team. Those months in the majors could be close to the real Buxton when he is healthy and locked in. That is what I think he will be this year, plus , he is coming to camp feeling like he has something to prove. My hot take is top three in MVP votes after he pulls the team into the playoffs.

--Twins Fan From Texas


#30 TheLeviathan

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 09:05 AM

 

When talking about “the two hottest months” of Buxtons career what is being forgotten is the years of pro ball in the minors. Buxton pretty much struggled each time he got to a new level, then adapted and then was the hottest hitter on the team. Those months in the majors could be close to the real Buxton when he is healthy and locked in. That is what I think he will be this year, plus , he is coming to camp feeling like he has something to prove. My hot take is top three in MVP votes after he pulls the team into the playoffs.

 

Well, we thought that last year too.Yes, there was an injury, but he looked lost all spring and the handful of at-bats before the injury.  

I too hope that the service time manipulation serves as a motivator.I'm not sure that helps him hit (read: avoid like the plague) breaking balls, but I'll sure as hell be hopeful about it.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 17 February 2019 - 09:09 AM.


#31 ashbury

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 09:07 AM

I'm not sure that helps him hit breaking balls

The breaking pitches to Buxton that I remember, I want to be laid off, not swung at. :)

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Nothing is impossible for the one who doesn't have to do the work.


#32 TheLeviathan

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 09:09 AM

 

The breaking pitches to Buxton that I remember, I want to be laid off, not swung at. :)

 

Edited for this astute point.

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#33 Nick Nelson

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 12:54 PM

 

Sano is who he is. Meanwhile, Buxton is going to revert to the two hottest months of his career?

Buxton's K-rate in the minors was 22%. I really think his extreme contact issues in the majors have stemmed from a harsh learning curve, whereas Sano just has a swing & approach that are conducive to strikeouts. 

 

That's not to say Buxton won't strike out a lot. I made clear in item #1 that I think he will. Long-term, I don't see him as an historic whiff machine like Sano. 


#34 whatyouknowtwinsfan

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 03:05 PM

 

I didn't realize TFernando Romero had a silent T in it... The more you know!

Taylor, Trevor 1, or Trevor 2?




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