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Article: Report: Twins, Kepler Finalizing Extension

max kepler jorge polanco
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#21 Puckett34

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:19 PM

Love the deals. Berrios and Rosario next please.

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#22 JLease

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:26 PM

I like this, but I'll admit this one makes me a little twitchier. Twins are definitely betting on kepler taking a step forward on offense. I hope they've bet correctly.

 

Of course, with Kepler's defense and at this price, a team would still take last year's offense and defense even at the new price of $6-7M/year in CF.

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#23 Jham

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:35 PM

Evidently we believe in this core afterall. Time to bring in Bryce Harper and put the boot on the AL Central's neck for not 1, not 2, not 3...

Edited by Jham, 14 February 2019 - 02:05 PM.

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#24 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:50 PM

 

Now if the Twins extend Rosario, I expect they give first base gloves to both Larnach and Kirilloff starting this Spring Training.

 

I hope you're right about this.


#25 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:54 PM

Both of these contracts look great to me, barring a performance setback. Neither limits the trade value and liquidity of the player.

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#26 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:10 PM

If my math is right. The Twins just purchased one year of free agency and potentially a 2nd year. He should be 32 when he becomes a free agent. 

 

I believe it's a good gamble and I'm happy for Max. 

 

I'm just going to continue my perpetual hope that the Front Office recognizes the gamble for what it is and understands that the money being paid is the cost of doing business and is therefore fully prepared to not go down with the ship... if the ship goes down. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average and still playing all 162 games just to try and justify the extension by forcing it... It will be a bad move. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average but they allow someone else to surpass him for playing time despite the millions owed. I will be OK with the extension because... they took a shot. They rolled the dice and they can try again next year and the money does not bankrupt them. 

 

Extensions are fine... as long as the organization doesn't allow an extension to kill your team if it doesn't work out. 

 

With that said... Go Get EM MAX!!!

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#27 Monkeypaws

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:36 PM

This is the smart way to spend money - get guys on the way up for pennies on the dollar compared to big name free agents. 5 years of Kepler > 1 year of Harper, and >> than your average 30 year old 20 million dollar free agent.

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#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:42 PM

Good for him!

Of course, to win, they'll need to add players....
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#29 Thrylos

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:50 PM

 

Of course, to win, they'll need to add players....

 

This assumes that everyone in the current squad has already reached the prime, which is not a good assumption :)

 

As a matter of fact both Kepler's and Polanco's contracts take care of their prime years.

 

Pitching is a different story and indeed they will likely need to add a starter or two at some point to be competitive this post-season. If all goes well, I hope it is by this trading deadline.

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#30 ewen21

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:53 PM

 

For those underwhelmed by Kepler and wondering if this was an overpay, here is a great article from Fangraphs for some inside numbers perspective.

 

https://fantasy.fang...vious-breakout/

Fangraphs is brilliant in many ways, but the least brilliant thing about it is their valuation system in regards to dollar value based off the player's WAR.They had Dozier at and above 40 million.In what fictional world can that be justified?

 

Completely absurd

 

What is important is that Kepler is making significantly more than Polanco in his deal and I just don't get that

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#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:56 PM

This assumes that everyone in the current squad has already reached the prime, which is not a good assumption :)

As a matter of fact both Kepler's and Polanco's contracts take care of their prime years.

Pitching is a different story and indeed they will likely need to add a starter or two at some point to be competitive this post-season. If all goes well, I hope it is by this trading deadline.


No such assumption was made at all.

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 02:57 PM

 

If my math is right. The Twins just purchased one year of free agency and potentially a 2nd year. He should be 32 when he becomes a free agent. 

 

I believe it's a good gamble and I'm happy for Max. 

 

I'm just going to continue my perpetual hope that the Front Office recognizes the gamble for what it is and understands that the money being paid is the cost of doing business and is therefore fully prepared to not go down with the ship... if the ship goes down. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average and still playing all 162 games just to try and justify the extension by forcing it... It will be a bad move. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average but they allow someone else to surpass him for playing time despite the millions owed. I will be OK with the extension because... they took a shot. They rolled the dice and they can try again next year and the money does not bankrupt them. 

 

Extensions are fine... as long as the organization doesn't allow an extension to kill your team if it doesn't work out. 

 

With that said... Go Get EM MAX!!!

 

I'd be more worried about them trying to shoehorn him into the lineup to justify his salary if he didn't show to be a pretty good CF last year. More often than not there will likely always be room for him even if he's just platooning. Also, if a guy can play decent CF, you can usually move him even if you have to eat a bit of the contract.

 

If Polanco doesn't hit and his SS skills don't improve, I'd think he'd be the guy to worry about.


#33 scottz

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:00 PM

Congratulations, Max. Be wise with your money.


#34 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:04 PM

 

 

What is important is that Kepler is making significantly more than Polanco in his deal and I just don't get that

 

Max Kepler was projected to make 3.2M in arbitration in 2019. Polanco wasn't even arbitration eligible. 

 

So Kepler is probably getting about a 50-80% raise? Polanco will be getting about a 600% raise.

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#35 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:34 PM

 

If my math is right. The Twins just purchased one year of free agency and potentially a 2nd year. He should be 32 when he becomes a free agent. 

 

I believe it's a good gamble and I'm happy for Max. 

 

I'm just going to continue my perpetual hope that the Front Office recognizes the gamble for what it is and understands that the money being paid is the cost of doing business and is therefore fully prepared to not go down with the ship... if the ship goes down. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average and still playing all 162 games just to try and justify the extension by forcing it... It will be a bad move. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average but they allow someone else to surpass him for playing time despite the millions owed. I will be OK with the extension because... they took a shot. They rolled the dice and they can try again next year and the money does not bankrupt them. 

 

Extensions are fine... as long as the organization doesn't allow an extension to kill your team if it doesn't work out. 

 

With that said... Go Get EM MAX!!!

Completely agree. I'm not sold on Kepler being able to hit MLB pitching given his first 3 years. This deal is still worth doing to lock him up without overpaying him as long as they aren't afraid to sit him if he doesn't produce and/or Cave turns out to be better (like he was last year).For some reason, I'm optimistic that the new FO/manager team will be willing to let performance rule so I think this is a great idea and a great deal. Now lock up Berrios!

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#36 mikelink45

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:49 PM

Okay, but looking ahead - Kiriloff, Larnach and we have four good outfielders if Buxton does anything, so what is the plan?Does this make Max more tradeable?


#37 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:50 PM

 

This is the smart way to spend money - get guys on the way up for pennies on the dollar compared to big name free agents. 5 years of Kepler > 1 year of Harper, and >> than your average 30 year old 20 million dollar free agent.

 

I don't think anyone really disagrees that this is a safer route.But the idea that 5 years of Kepler is better than 1 year of Harper is not correct.Harper is very, very likely to be a much better baseball player than Kepler over the next 10 years.Yes, he'll cost more, but teams can only play one RF.Harper > Kepler.  

 

 

 


#38 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 04:02 PM

I hear people talking about the front-loading aspect, but I can't find the details?What does the structure look like per year?


#39 Rigby

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 04:11 PM

 

Evidently we believe in this core afterall. Time to bring in Bryce Harper and put the boot on the AL Central's neck for not 1, not 2, not 3...

Does seem a bit inconsistent with their stated "wait and see" approach and reluctance to add high end talent to the roster.

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#40 dbminn

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 04:23 PM

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs has posted a solid article on the reasons the Twins - and other teams - are high on Kepler's future. Here's an extended quote:

 

"It’s easy to grow impatient. It’s easy to have grown impatient with a number of Twins players, for that matter. But...

 

Teams continued to call the Twins, inquiring as to Kepler’s availability. The Twins never formally put him in a trade. Other teams still see a breakout candidate. The Twins still see a breakout candidate. There seems to be something of an industry consensus, and it’s not a tough thing to explain."

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