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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #2 Alex Kirilloff

alex kirilloff vladimir guerrero jr byron buxton max kepler eddie rosario
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#21 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 05:44 AM

 

If he has two great months, there's a very good chance he never sees AAA.

Is a .333/.381/.525 two month slash line good enough? Or are those go to AAA numbers?


#22 Jham

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 06:23 AM

I'd personally have AK 1 at this point. He's got the pedigree to go with the gaudy numbers. His bat plays more than Lewis's I think.

That said, his Babip was really pretty high last season. He probably needs a few more walks, to turn on a few more pitches, and to turn more of those doubles into HR in order to sustain his momentum. If his value is peaking and we see him as Kepler 2.0, well we've got a lot of tough decisions coming up.

Edited by Jham, 14 February 2019 - 06:26 AM.

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#23 Original Whizzinator

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 06:23 AM

It seems like there is a big difference between saying stats are “just a piece of the puzzle” and “rankings typically have very little to do with the stats.”
I think your latter statement was just hyperbole and we shouldn’t hold you to it, especially in the broader context of all of the great work you do tracking down and writing up all of the Twins prospects that we all like to follow during the dog days of winter (buy the prospect handbook!).
All that said, I am still a bit perplexed how you feel like you aren’t considering stats that much when you go from ranking Gonsalves #1 in the system after an amazing statistical season in A+/AA, to #2 in the system after an exceedingly good statistical season in AA/AAA, to #11 after a similarly excellent statistical season in AAA with a 24 bad inning promotion to MLB. To me it looks like stats were a pretty big driver for those rankings.

I think he said stats become more important as you climb the ladder which would bear out with your Gonsalves example.

#24 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 07:15 AM

Stats...smatz...AK is an awesome hitter. Can't wait to see him and the other Twins' prospects and players in 1 week at spring training. I can see it now. I'll be standing by a fence. watching practice. Suddenly a ball comes over the fence. I pick it up and throw a strike to home plate. A coach says: "Hey kid, come here. Where did you get that arm. Let me see you do that again" I throw another strike with movement. He puts me on the mound...same result. Castro is called over. He says he's never seen both speed and movement like this. The radar gun is reading 103. Excuse me TD reader, my office phone is ringing. Maybe it is Thad. I'll get back to this daydream later.

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#25 Cornholio

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 08:14 AM

So does he get to wear #47, or is that just too obvious?
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#26 JLease

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:24 AM

 

And to bring the conversation back to Kiriloff, as this is in the Kiriloff forum, let me point out the glaringly obvious fact that Kiriloff went from last year being unranked nationally but “he’s a great pure hitter” to this year, after an amazing statistical season, ranked in the top 20 nationally.

To me, it looks like it was his stats over the past year that made up 95% of those ranking changes. (94.8%, to be exact.)

 

His absence from a lot of lists last year is a result of the injury. with no information about his development, a lot of people are going to significantly downgrade a prospect until they get back on the field. It's not a crazy decision either, sort of like giving someone an Incomplete rather than a letter grade. he made some national lists after his first season and now he's surged up the lists.

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#27 bobs

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

71 extra-base hits in 130 games.SEVENTY-ONE!!!!!

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#28 gman

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:48 AM

Thinking back to 2015 we had a few top prospects that got yanked from double A and slammed into he daily lineup. Most of these guys unfortunately we are still waiting on. Having them learn at the big league level hasn't worked out too well.

 

For the Twins sake (and mine as a fan) I hope we don't drag the next crop out of the field too early. I would prefer to see a ready to go Kiriloff in 2020 then watch him come up in 2019 and flounder for 2-3 years. The same applies to others.

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#29 jkcarew

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:28 AM

I'm a little surprised at least one of you didn't have Kirilloff 1 and Lewis 2. Everybody must REALLY love them some Royce Lewis, 'cause I don't think Kirilloff is far from the show if he rakes in AA. Can hardly wait to see what these guys do this year.

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#30 howieramone2

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:42 AM

 

Thinking back to 2015 we had a few top prospects that got yanked from double A and slammed into he daily lineup. Most of these guys unfortunately we are still waiting on. Having them learn at the big league level hasn't worked out too well.

 

For the Twins sake (and mine as a fan) I hope we don't drag the next crop out of the field too early. I would prefer to see a ready to go Kiriloff in 2020 then watch him come up in 2019 and flounder for 2-3 years. The same applies to others.

I agree with you, we were bringing up our top prospects too early. That lead to the ouster of TR because of our disastrous 2016 season. He compounded it, by having no plan B. 

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#31 puckstopper1

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:57 AM

Not that they were seriously considering it, but I feel that Kirilloff's potential is a reason (there are several others) that the Twins would not pursue Bryce Harper.

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#32 clutterheart

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:01 PM

Id like to see him play a few games at 1B this year. His bat will force him in the lineup at some point it would be nice if he gets some positional flexibility
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#33 caninatl04

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:04 PM

Kirilloff doesn't have to be added to the 40-man roster yet after the 2019 season. My thought is that if the Twins are in contention in July, and Kirilloff is playing well, he comes up directly from AA. If they are out of contention, there is no reason to call him up in 2019, and they can call him up 3 weeks into the 2020 season.


And I think the performances of Kepler and especially Bux will be factors as well.

But let’s not put the cart before the horse. Even thought, as nater 79a pointed out, his numbers were insane in the pitcher friendly FSL, the jump to AA is usually the most difficult.

Finally, close inspection of the spray chart shows a number of doubles that weren’t gapers but fell close to the wall. I’m guessing these were in the larger FSL parks. Perhaps some of the will become homers in Pensacola.
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#34 caninatl04

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:08 PM

Well, there won't be much drama as to who the #1 TwinsDaily prospect will be.
I guess the only intrigue is who will get to write up the story....Tom, Cody, Seth or Nick?

It’s got to be Willie Joe (Garry) for the name alone!

#35 ashbury

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:28 PM

It’s got to be Willie Joe (Garry) for the name alone!

I too am hoping for an under-the-radar pick at #1. I mean, how strong a minor league system would you have, if Royce Lewis is ranked #21 or lower? :)

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#36 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 01:41 PM

 

Thinking back to 2015 we had a few top prospects that got yanked from double A and slammed into he daily lineup. Most of these guys unfortunately we are still waiting on. Having them learn at the big league level hasn't worked out too well.

 

For the Twins sake (and mine as a fan) I hope we don't drag the next crop out of the field too early. I would prefer to see a ready to go Kiriloff in 2020 then watch him come up in 2019 and flounder for 2-3 years. The same applies to others.

 

Most guys struggle coming out to AAA too. They're going to have to learn at the MLB level no matter what route they take to get there.

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#37 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 08:25 PM

 

So does he get to wear #47, or is that just too obvious?

He can wear any number he wants that no one else already has. He will be a lowly rookie.


#38 DocBauer

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 08:30 PM

Most guys struggle coming out to AAA too. They're going to have to learn at the MLB level no matter what route they take to get there.


Absolutely! Why I still preach patience at times.

I believe in promotions for top talent. And I think thjs FO has been, and will be aggressive. But you also have to knkw when jts prudent to pull the reigns back a bit. For example, they were aggressive with Romero. But he's still a work in progress, especially for his 3rd pitch. But he's also one of the best arms we have. Can we be smart enough to utilize him properly in 2019 and still develop him?

Khirilloff is a NATURAL. That doesn't mean he doesn't have things to learn and adjustments to be made. But I think he's ready right now for AA. To rake like he did in a pitcher friendly league tells me he is ready for the next level. Personally, despite his talent and potential, I wouldn't care if he didn't debut until 2020 for various reasons.

But I wouldn't be surprised if he forces the issue this year.

What a wonderful conundrum it would be to place Khirilloff, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cron, Cruz all in the same lineup with Cave saying....wait a minute, what about me?

But I'm OK with stacking talent, end of 2019 and beyond.
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#39 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 09:37 PM

Absolutely! Why I still preach patience at times.I believe in promotions for top talent. And I think thjs FO has been, and will be aggressive. But you also have to knkw when jts prudent to pull the reigns back a bit. For example, they were aggressive with Romero. But he's still a work in progress, especially for his 3rd pitch. But he's also one of the best arms we have. Can we be smart enough to utilize him properly in 2019 and still develop him? Khirilloff is a NATURAL. That doesn't mean he doesn't have things to learn and adjustments to be made. But I think he's ready right now for AA. To rake like he did in a pitcher friendly league tells me he is ready for the next level. Personally, despite his talent and potential, I wouldn't care if he didn't debut until 2020 for various reasons. But I wouldn't be surprised if he forces the issue this year.What a wonderful conundrum it would be to place Khirilloff, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cron, Cruz all in the same lineup with Cave saying....wait a minute, what about me? But I'm OK with stacking talent, end of 2019 and beyond.


Ok, I’ll bite. Why do you insist on the “h” in Kiriloff?
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#40 gil4

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 10:37 PM

 

 

And to bring the conversation back to Kiriloff, as this is in the Kiriloff forum, let me point out the glaringly obvious fact that Kiriloff went from last year being unranked nationally but “he’s a great pure hitter” to this year, after an amazing statistical season, ranked in the top 20 nationally.

To me, it looks like it was his stats over the past year that made up 95% of those ranking changes. (94.8%, to be exact.) 

 

If he had hit .280/.330/.420, the stats would be part of the puzzle. If he puts up another .348/.392/.578 when he moves up to AA, I'm not sure how significant the other pieces will be.

 

 




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