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Article: Mailbag: Duda In, Gordon’s Future, Contention Time

lucas duda nick gordon bryce harper manny machado clark beeker
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#21 amjgt

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:17 AM

 

We get Seattle games in Oregon, and I believe that they go out to Idaho and maybe Western Montana and parts of Utah as well. Their region seems comparable to the Twins'.

 

That region has twice as many people as the Twins region.


#22 ashbury

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:36 AM

Dude, it’s a minor league deal, it’ll take at least one injury for him to get on the roster. Teams make signings like this all the time...

There's an opt-out for the player about a week before Spring Training ends, so it puts some tiny bit of pressure on the team to give him at least some solid hope, if not add him to the 40-man right then.

 

I expect a good FO to deal with pressure, particularly when self-imposed pressure. But, still, it's not just like every AAA signing.

So, in conclusion, what was your question again?


#23 ewen21

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:55 AM

 

He had a bad 3 months in his first exposure to AAA in the second half of the season.  All I'm saying is have a little patience before we just write guys off.  Gordon will play this entire season at 23.  

Again.If not a single person said a thing about his performance he would still have to dig himself of the hole he has dug.

 

 


#24 jkcarew

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 12:39 PM

 

Austin, Cron, Duda, Cruz....

Other teams are looking for guys that can play multiple positions, and the Twins have brought in four DH, 1B, types. Right after drafting Rooker.

I don't get it.

And until Duda, it was four RIGHT-HANDED power bats with little or no defensive flexibility.

 

They knew they would lose Mauer's left-handed OBP...they chose to part with Grossman's left-handed OBP...so they picked up more right-handed power bats (Cruz and Cron) with mediocre OBP to go with the questionable OBP right-handed power bats they already had (Austin and Rooker).

 

Cruz was a no-brainer. But Cron and Austin are totally redundant, and potential blockers of Rooker depending upon how the season goes. Then you add Duda in what seems a complete after-thought even though it doesn't immediately cost a roster spot..."Wait...all our marginal and inflexible first-basemen are right-handed. We have to find a margin and inflexible left-handed first baseman." Weird to say the least.

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#25 Original Whizzinator

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 01:12 PM

As part of their TV deal, weren't the Twins were given partial ownership of Fox Sports North? That has to make their TV deal more valuable than it seems.
In a related note, I see now that Jim Pohlad has joined an effort to buy the entire Fox Sports Network.

Ah money laundering... Remind me not to play a Pohlad for money in chess. I kid,I kid

Edited by Original Whizzinator, 12 February 2019 - 01:13 PM.


#26 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 01:18 PM

 

I think Nick is getting a really bad rap and it seems like fans always want to be so quick to jump off the band wagon. All that has happened so far is that Nick had a really bad 3 month at Rochester. In a quarter of the season at Chattanooga last year Nick had 10 doubles, 3 triples and 5 homers while having a slash line of .333/.381.525. Those extra base numbers would total 40 doubles, 12 triples and 20 homers over a full season. That is an iso power of .192 which is excellent. Thru June 7th at Rochester he still had an OPS above .800. In the 1st half of 2017 over 64 games Gordon put up 21 doubles, 6 triples and 6 homers. That would equate to 50 doubles, 15 triples and 15 homers over a full season. His slash line in that 1st half was .315/.376/.504. Those power and OBP number look just fine to me. I think this more a case that Gordon really wears down in the 2nd half of seasons. That isn’t totally uncommon for young players, especially ones Gordon’s size. It is also something that can improve as he matures and gains strength. I really expect Nick to get off to a great start this year in Rochester like has has in every other year.

 

Do what you just did with any player and you can make them look good. If this guy didn't have this bad stretch, they would be great. Hope you are right though and he is just young and small. 

 

 


#27 spycake

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 01:19 PM

 

As much as fans don’t want to hear it, the Twins need to see what their young core can do this season.

 

I don't understand this argument, in the context of not trying to add significant external talent this offseason.

 

This was a 78 win team last season, and 85 the year before. Regardless of what the young core does, adding 3-4-5 WAR players right now could be huge to this team's fate.

 

If this was a club like the 2012 Twins, or the current Marlins or whatever -- I understand. Adding a 5 WAR player might get those teams out of last place, but the odds are still very low that it helps them to the postseason.

 

But the 2019 Twins aren't the Marlins, or the 2012 Twins. The 2019 Twins are absolutely in a position where they need to strongly consider all methods of adding external talent to the MLB roster right now.

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#28 lukeduke1980

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 01:34 PM

 

I don't understand this argument, in the context of not trying to add significant external talent this offseason.

 

This was a 78 win team last season, and 85 the year before. Regardless of what the young core does, adding 3-4-5 WAR players right now could be huge to this team's fate.

 

Especially close losses.Was it 12 walk off losses?Add talent to the bullpen and maybe some of those games are extended and the Cruz led offense can turn 8 of those into wins.

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#29 ewen21

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 01:47 PM

I don't understand why people suddenly the Twins to spend like a top 10 team. These are two analytics guys. The whole premise behind bringing them in was to build a competitive cost-effective club.

They are not going to take costly risks by definition. About the only time they might is if this team has a more stable core. Not sure why so many are challenged by this notion

#30 Wookiee of the Year

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 02:02 PM

 

Chattanooga likely starts the year with a six-man rotation, but the organization most assuredly will be using more openers during the season. The Blue Wahoos’ bullpen will be equally important.

Pretty cool that the Blue Wahoos' official account threw in a mailbag question.

 

...But what's this about the Chattanooga rotation? I have no interest in the Reds' minor league system. :P

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#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 02:03 PM

 

I don't understand why people suddenly the Twins to spend like a top 10 team. These are two analytics guys. The whole premise behind bringing them in was to build a competitive cost-effective club.

They are not going to take costly risks by definition. About the only time they might is if this team has a more stable core. Not sure why so many are challenged by this notion

 

Who is saying top 10? They aren't even at the median right now......who said top 10? Especially if you take out the teams not even trying....

 

Analytics is NOT about not taking risks, just the opposite. It's about using math to determine the best path among all the risky paths, and to attempt to quantify that, rather than just eyeball it.

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#32 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 03:00 PM

 

I don't understand this argument, in the context of not trying to add significant external talent this offseason.

 

This was a 78 win team last season, and 85 the year before. Regardless of what the young core does, adding 3-4-5 WAR players right now could be huge to this team's fate.

 

If this was a club like the 2012 Twins, or the current Marlins or whatever -- I understand. Adding a 5 WAR player might get those teams out of last place, but the odds are still very low that it helps them to the postseason.

 

But the 2019 Twins aren't the Marlins, or the 2012 Twins. The 2019 Twins are absolutely in a position where they need to strongly consider all methods of adding external talent to the MLB roster right now.

 

Exactly... Waiting on the core to show something is just plain bad strategy. 

 

If they show something this year... you'll want the proper support to augment the improved performance. 

 

If they don't show something this year... You'll want the proper support to try and remain competitive. 

 

Our 2019 level of breakouts and bounce backs or lack thereof... isn't just worse case scenario or best case scenario... the possibilities are everywhere in between worst and best case scenarios. No matter what... proper support is necessary because we are not the Orioles in need of a complete tear down. 

 

If we are in need of a complete tear down... the organization is broken. 

 

 

 

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#33 markos

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 03:42 PM

 

I don't understand this argument, in the context of not trying to add significant external talent this offseason.

 

This was a 78 win team last season, and 85 the year before. Regardless of what the young core does, adding 3-4-5 WAR players right now could be huge to this team's fate.

 

If this was a club like the 2012 Twins, or the current Marlins or whatever -- I understand. Adding a 5 WAR player might get those teams out of last place, but the odds are still very low that it helps them to the postseason.

 

But the 2019 Twins aren't the Marlins, or the 2012 Twins. The 2019 Twins are absolutely in a position where they need to strongly consider all methods of adding external talent to the MLB roster right now.

I think this is a very, very good point. And in the context of the current young core on this team, it is worth pointing out that almost everything went wrong last year, and they still won 78 games. This team has such a high floor right now, so I think it would have made sense for the front office to do everything they could to try to raise their ceiling. Where they are at right now, with a 81-83 win projection, Buxton could break out and have a 8 WAR season like everyone hopes and dreams... and the team will win 88 games and still miss the playoffs.

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#34 howieramone2

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 03:59 PM

 

Austin, Cron, Duda, Cruz....

Other teams are looking for guys that can play multiple positions, and the Twins have brought in four DH, 1B, types. Right after drafting Rooker.

I don't get it.

It's too early to give up on Gordon, but last year is a red flag to raise doubts.

Most teams are not looking for players who can play multiple positions. Teams have been specializing for years. Don't buy an Austin or Duda jersey. Gordon will replace Adrianza when he's ready. Think Ron Washington.

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#35 yarnivek1972

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:07 PM

Not that I think there's any chance the Twins can approach that type of TV deal, but their current deal is more than a few years old, which is probably one of the reasons it's pretty far down in the rankings.

Let's look at the market size for a second...

SEA-TAC - 3.9M
MSP - 3.6M

But obviously the games are being broadcast beyond the immediate metro area. Let's look at the regional population, where the "local" games are likely being broadcast

Washington + Oregon + Idaho = 13.5M

Minnesota + ND + SD = 7.2M
There are some parts of Wisconsin and Iowa that are part of the Twins region, but not the very populated parts. At most, it probably adds up to 8.5M


I suspect Mariner games are also broadcast in British Columbia. When Ichiro was there, they had a following in Japan as well. Although, that was likely online and not part of a cable deal.

#36 yarnivek1972

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:09 PM

Has Baldelli announced an opening day starter?

One would logically assume Kyle Gibson. But it could be Berrios.

#37 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 08:24 PM

 

Maybe someone can answer this for me. The Twin Cities are the 16th largest market in the US. They have the 20th ranked tv deal. Seattle just passed us for the 15th ranked metro area. They have the 5th highest tv deal. What gives? Our games are shown statewide and in neighboring states. Not the case for Seattle. Maybe I should apply for a job?

 

It's not just the immediate metro. 

 

Seattle also gets Portland. Minnesota has the Twins Cities and a lot of towns with Grain Elevators.

 

That's why MLB has to force team relocation's or possible expansion cities. Every market has been claimed by the existing franchises as part of their territory. 

 

The Mariners are going to fight tooth and nail to keep Portland from getting a franchise just like the Orioles fought the Expos move to D.C. The commissioners office and the other owners had to basically cram it down the Orioles throat. The Giants were able to stop the A's from moving to San Jose. 

 

Atlanta has the South claimed. St. Louis has Memphis. We got Sioux Falls and Fargo and of course... Little Falls.:)  

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#38 Blackjack

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 08:28 AM

"It’s crazy to think the Twins are going to host a regular season home game at the end of March"

 

Unless we get a major warmup I'll still be out ice fishing in MN at the end of March!!!!!


#39 amjgt

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:15 AM

I was in search of real market size data and stumbled upon this article, on fangraphs, from 2016....

 

Estimated TV revenue for each team:

https://blogs.fangra...l-30-mlb-teams/

 

Two things stood out to me.

 

1) While we around 20th on the list, we really are not that far from 7th (Phillies - 20M difference). 

2) They talk about Ownership stake in the cable network and list the Twins as having ZERO ownership stake in FSN. I thought that was well established at this point. 

 


#40 amjgt

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:15 AM

As for my original search. Not too much good data, but this image is interesting....

 

sn_fbmap1_576x324.jpg

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