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Article: Is Samuel Deduno a lock for the 2013 rotation?

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#1 Parker Hageman

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 11:46 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...e-2013-rotation

#2 mike wants wins

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 07:37 AM

LOCK. This is my opinion, and not based on fact, but this organization is impressed by small sample size performances, like signing hitters that beat up on them, or pitchers that are good in the AFL. Plus, they are not exactly willing to spend money. Deduno is a perfect storm for their scouts and money guys.

#3 Mr. Ed

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 08:17 AM

LOCK. This is my opinion, and not based on fact, but this organization is impressed by small sample size performances, like signing hitters that beat up on them, or pitchers that are good in the AFL. Plus, they are not exactly willing to spend money. Deduno is a perfect storm for their scouts and money guys.


Exactly.

They're not swimming in decent pitchers and are not likely to gather in much more than guys found in the bargain bin.

That's been their pattern in the past, and unless radically changed, won't be any different this year.

#4 3up3down

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 08:31 AM

i have seen deduno alot thru the years, my opinion is & has been is he should be in the pen , where he can throw the curve 15 times & give you 1 good inning, you are correct he has great movement on his pitches but he has & will always struggle with control, thats a good thing & a bad thing....hitters cant sit on pitches because they have no idea where its going...if he tries to change & get less movement & throw more quality strikes he is going to start to get hit harder....the video you showed is a perfect example, the ball was never over the plate , it had alot of movement but it was never a strike, hitters will not swing at that once they get a good look at him..i do believe deduno comes into spring training with a shot , not a lock at the rotation & then its 50/50 if he throws strikes for a month in ST he makes the team if not & he struggles with control he gets designated & maybe gets claimed or goes to rochester..

#5 Dave T

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 08:36 AM

LOCK. As the video shows, Deduno is very hard to hit.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 08:45 AM

i have seen deduno alot thru the years, my opinion is & has been is he should be in the pen , where he can throw the curve 15 times & give you 1 good inning, you are correct he has great movement on his pitches but he has & will always struggle with control, thats a good thing & a bad thing....hitters cant sit on pitches because they have no idea where its going...if he tries to change & get less movement & throw more quality strikes he is going to start to get hit harder....the video you showed is a perfect example, the ball was never over the plate , it had alot of movement but it was never a strike, hitters will not swing at that once they get a good look at him..i do believe deduno comes into spring training with a shot , not a lock at the rotation & then its 50/50 if he throws strikes for a month in ST he makes the team if not & he struggles with control he gets designated & maybe gets claimed or goes to rochester..


Guys with control problems are a disaster out of the bullpen. When you need an inning out of a guy and he's almost guaranteed to walk at least one batter in that inning, you're not going to see very good results. Deduno can get through that as a starter because he has 5-6 innings to work with but as a reliever, you need to be able to come in at a moment's notice and get a guy out, not walk the first two batters you face.

#7 Boom Boom

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:18 AM

That "crazy fastball" is a double-edged sword. Look at the graphic - a lot of movement , but the pitch is obviously a ball and Deduno is lucky that Robinson swung at it. He's a unique pitcher but teams are going to figure out real quick to lay off Deduno's fastball.

Deduno's numbers scream "regression" to me. But I think he's a lock anyway because the Twins won't bring in enough starters to bump him from the rotation.

#8 Winston Smith

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:22 AM

Nobody should be a lock. Make everyone earn a spot next year.

#9 COtwin

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:46 AM

Not a lock, but strong consideration. That pitch was not an obvious ball. In the first third of its flight it is heading for the outside of the plate. when the hitter is deciding to swing, it looks like strike. Dedunos problem is with that much movement, painting the corners is nearly impossible. Also, I agree that Deduno would be a disaster out of the pen. He is going to walk some guys, but the beauty of what he has been doing is that over the course of a game, he makes up for it with ground balls and weakly hit flys. Short appearances could magnify his issues.

#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 10:59 AM

If the rotation is Diamond-Deduno-Hendriks at 3-4-5, then that is not bad. If they are 2-3-4, that is bad.

#11 Teflon

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 11:08 AM

The two closest historical comparisons I can find for pitchers in Deduno's age range and comparable ratio of hits, walks, and Ks per 9 innings are the 29 year-old Steve Barber of 1967 and the 25 year-old Bo Belinsky of 1962. Barber went 24-28 over the remainder of his career (6 years) while Belinsky was 18-40. (7 years)

I look for Deduno to be more of a Bo Belinsky. (Without the interesting Mamie Van Doren press sightings, unfortunately)

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#12 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 12:10 PM

Is a lock to go inti ST as a starter but its 50/50 if he makes the club. Gardy admits he cannot get by with his present walks & since hes out of options, i wouldnt be stunned if hes outrighted & claimed.
To me, he's the guy holding down the position till Bakers ready May 1 or Gibson June 1

#13 jokin

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 12:27 PM

If the rotation is Diamond-Deduno-Hendriks at 3-4-5, then that is not bad. If they are 2-3-4, that is bad.


3-4-5 is "not bad", but 2-3-4 "is bad".

That begs the question:

1) What does that make the "1-2-3" scenario if the Twins decide that Baker/Gibson are designated as the other two starters and they both end up breaking down again?

#14 snepp

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 12:47 PM

1) What does that make the "1-2-3" scenario if the Twins decide that Baker/Gibson are designated as the other two starters and they both end up breaking down again?


That would be the "Oy vey!" scenario.

#15 James

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 12:52 PM

Is a lock to go inti ST as a starter but its 50/50 if he makes the club. Gardy admits he cannot get by with his present walks & since hes out of options, i wouldnt be stunned if hes outrighted & claimed.
To me, he's the guy holding down the position till Bakers ready May 1 or Gibson June 1

Agree with this 100%.

I don't think anyway has earned a spot except maybe Diamond. Everyone else should have to earn a spot in ST (as reliable as that is). Deduno has definitely earned his ST invite though.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 01:23 PM

Wait, you do not trust the results this year, but you would trust spring training? Also, I answered bases on what I think the team will do, not what I would do.

#17 Winston Smith

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 01:24 PM

How would Baker be ready by May 1, 13 months after surgery while Gibson won't be ready until June, 22 months after his?
I think the most likely thing is Gibson starts in the bullpen to save innings, moves into the rotation after June 1 and gets 15-20 starts. Baker could maybe be ready to pitch around June and also get 12-15 starts. However, why are we thinking Baker is coming back?

#18 Paul

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 01:28 PM

I'm kind of fascinated by the reports on this kid's FB. Some cut, some tail, and some sink. And apparently, nobody, including him, knows which direction the ball is going. Or, even what's causing the variance. The one thing I could add to Doumit's thoughts, “I don’t know if it’s finger pressure or wrist angle or what it is, but he’s got a gift..." is this: A normal FB is thrown with index and middle finger on the seams with the thumb opposing them, roughly forming an isosceles triangle, with the ring finger second knuckle providing stability. When I switched to softball I found the movement I had, because of the shorter distance, confounded the firstbaseman. I discovered a grip change that "killed" the spin, thus reducing movement, with no real drop in velocity. All I did was change from a 3-point cradle to a 4-point cradle by moving my thumb further to the outside of the ball and adding the first knuckle of the ring finger as the 4th point. This was an accidental discovery and had more to do with the size of the ball than any mission I had. Anyhoo, if Deduno, actively or inadvertently, moves his thumb out or hits a seam with it he might "kill" some of the spin and cause apparent sink.

#19 James

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 02:08 PM

Wait, you do not trust the results this year, but you would trust spring training? Also, I answered bases on what I think the team will do, not what I would do.

It's not that I don't trust this year's results. I was saying that he would have to continue to show results in spring training to get a spot in the rotation when the season starts. More of a combined look, not just one or the other.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#20 James

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 02:14 PM

How would Baker be ready by May 1, 13 months after surgery while Gibson won't be ready until June, 22 months after his?
I think the most likely thing is Gibson starts in the bullpen to save innings, moves into the rotation after June 1 and gets 15-20 starts. Baker could maybe be ready to pitch around June and also get 12-15 starts. However, why are we thinking Baker is coming back?

I think the common thought is that Gibson needs a little bit more AAA experience, not that he would be coming back from the surgery too soon. Since Baker has been a MLB starter for a while, he wouldn't need the AAA experience, just go there long enough to prove he's healthy again. All speculation on my part though.

I do actually like the idea of Gibson in the bullpen to start the year. It makes sense to me on an experience/arm usage level.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#21 Willihammer

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 02:24 PM

I'm kind of fascinated by the reports on this kid's FB. Some cut, some tail, and some sink. And apparently, nobody, including him, knows which direction the ball is going. Or, even what's causing the variance. The one thing I could add to Doumit's thoughts, “I don’t know if it’s finger pressure or wrist angle or what it is, but he’s got a gift..." is this: A normal FB is thrown with index and middle finger on the seams with the thumb opposing them, roughly forming an isosceles triangle, with the ring finger second knuckle providing stability. When I switched to softball I found the movement I had, because of the shorter distance, confounded the firstbaseman. I discovered a grip change that "killed" the spin, thus reducing movement, with no real drop in velocity. All I did was change from a 3-point cradle to a 4-point cradle by moving my thumb further to the outside of the ball and adding the first knuckle of the ring finger as the 4th point. This was an accidental discovery and had more to do with the size of the ball than any mission I had. Anyhoo, if Deduno, actively or inadvertently, moves his thumb out or hits a seam with it he might "kill" some of the spin and cause apparent sink.


I believe his 4 seamer sinks (it doesn't actually sink, it just rises less than normal) because he slings the ball, creating a rotational axis that is more vertical than horizontal. This would also account for the tailing action.

Exactly the opposite from that windup doll Blyleven's "get on top of the ball" and "downward plain" mantras.

#22 ashburyjohn

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 02:34 PM

1) What does that make the "1-2-3" scenario if the Twins decide that Baker/Gibson are designated as the other two starters and they both end up breaking down again?


That would be the "Oy vey!" scenario.


Or "2012", in English.

#23 3up3down

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 02:39 PM

brock, the pens are full of guys that could not be straters for some reason or another, if hes in the pen he eliminates a pitch, he throws his slider for a strike more often than his fastball, so what if he walks 2 , he then strikes out the next 3...have you watched chris perez..

#24 Parker Hageman

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 03:19 PM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]I believe his 4 seamer sinks (it doesn't actually sink, it just rises less than normal) because he slings the ball, creating a rotational axis that is more vertical than horizontal. This would also account for the tailing action.[/COLOR]


I do believe that is a significant source for his "sink" and "run" action on his fastball. I was going to dive into that aspect of why in the piece but ultimately axed it because, dang it, I could go on forever and bore the pants out of the casual fan.

Pitch F/X shows that in his last three seasons (including spring training data with Rockies/Padres), Deduno's vertical release point has dropped a bit and now he has a similar arm slot to Justin Masterson's -- the other noted slinger. Obviously Deduno's is higher, but it is comparable.

In regards to the grip argument, it's true that different grips can offer different movement, but as you can see in this image, he holds a standard four-seam grip.

Last, biomechanical studies have shown recently that one of the biggest influential factors on a fastball's "sink" is due to the amount of forearm pronation put on the pitch when throwing. Without any super-slo motion cameras from a side or front angle, there's no way of telling how much pronation Deduno puts on his fastball.

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 04:37 PM

brock, the pens are full of guys that could not be straters for some reason or another, if hes in the pen he eliminates a pitch, he throws his slider for a strike more often than his fastball, so what if he walks 2 , he then strikes out the next 3...have you watched chris perez..


A few problems with that thinking:

1. Deduno doesn't strike guys out. He's sitting on a rather paltry 6.5 k/9 ratio in 2012.

2. MLB bullpens are full of guys who failed as a starter because their secondary pitches were below average. Deduno's problem pitch is his fastball. If he moves to the pen, he still needs to throw that fastball to be successful. He can't live on his curveball. Even the good version of Barry Zito couldn't live on his curveball, never throwing it more than 26.7% of the time. And Barry Zito's curveball was knee-buckling during his prime. Absolutely filthy.

3. Chris Perez' career stats are 3.8 bb/9 and 8.8 k/9. Samuel Deduno's career stats are 5.8 bb/9 and 6.8 k/9. It's not hard to see why one would be successful out of the pen while the other would be an unmitigated disaster.

#26 Thrylos

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 05:00 PM

I'd love to hear a rational reason why Deduno (1.467 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.13 K/BB) earned a spot over De Vries (1.209 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.22 K/BB -WHIP and K/BB tops for Twins' SPs this season, btw).

Where rational means excluding references of "unhittable stuff" and earned means performed better than others

Edited by Thrylos, 21 September 2012 - 05:10 PM.

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#27 3up3down

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 05:43 PM

brock, i see wht your saying......but .... perez would have higher walk rates if he was trying to pitch 6,7 innings.......are you telling me you dont think zito could have got thru one inning throwing nothing but his curve.....there are alot of relievers that rely mostly on one pitch to get them thru 1 inning, deduno could do that for 1 inning.. its a complete different situation..deduno is trying to last 6 innings , he cant throw 90% sliders, even though one game i bet he threw atleast 60%.......we will just have to agree to disagree, but i dont see his control getting better........

thrylos, my opinion is you have a bunch of #5 starters, that includes deduno,devries,blackburn,walters,hendrix, they are all #5s & if more than one of those guys is in the rotation next year for a extended time, the twins will not be in the playoff race......one of these guys can help the team in the 5th spot but like some have said if they are 3,4& 5 the twins are in deep trouble.....they need to sign or trade for a #1 #2 diamond can be a #3, sign a cheap #4 & may the best man win the #5 spot, but having more than one of these guys in the rotation is disaster..

#28 Paul

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 05:50 PM

...Some cut, some tail, and some sink. And apparently, nobody, including him, knows which direction the ball is going. Or, even what's causing the variance...


Willihammer, I agree with everything you say. But my point was centered around the data I've cited from my previous comment. This data is from an article on this site a few weeks back. I find it fascinating that a ML pitcher doesn't know if the ball he's throwing will go right or left or stay up or go down. And ML catchers can't tell either. Watch Doumit in the video. It's like he got crossed up on the pitch. I mentioned my grip discovery as a way of explaining this stay up or go down phenomenon. Maybe I didn't explain it well enough. The grip doesn't eliminate the spin, but rather reduces the rpms and lessens the movement caused by the Magnus effect, much like a split finger FB. Thus appearing to the batter to sink as you described. I've never heard of this grip anyplace, and I've never even spoken of it before, and I doubt that this grip would be intentionally used by a pitcher as they normally want to increase the spin. Also, I know what you mean about Blyleven. But he IS a fountainhead of pitching finer points. If only you can decipher what he's trying to say.

Parker, from the link showing his grip I agree with you, but his thumb does look to be on the seam. I know from experience that the slight added friction from the seam, rather than the smooth leather, sliding off the thumb REDUCES the rpms. (at least for me) My thought was perhaps he is careless with his grip and this varies the rpms and thusly the sink. In any event, the guy in the video clip is gettin' PLENTY of rpms, and it does look like he pronates a tad.

#29 Thrylos

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 06:28 PM

thrylos, my opinion is you have a bunch of #5 starters, that includes deduno,devries,blackburn,walters,hendrix, they are all #5s & if more than one of those guys is in the rotation next year for a extended time, the twins will not be in the playoff race......one of these guys can help the team in the 5th spot but like some have said if they are 3,4& 5 the twins are in deep trouble.....they need to sign or trade for a #1 #2 diamond can be a #3, sign a cheap #4 & may the best man win the #5 spot, but having more than one of these guys in the rotation is disaster..


Pretty much agreed
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#30 Parker Hageman

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:19 PM

I'd love to hear a rational reason why Deduno (1.467 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.13 K/BB) earned a spot over De Vries (1.209 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.22 K/BB -WHIP and K/BB tops for Twins' SPs this season, btw).

Where rational means excluding references of "unhittable stuff" and earned means performed better than others


Well, I suppose it depends on what your definition of earned is.

But for a rational reason, conventionally, Deduno has a better record (6-4 to 5-5), a better ERA (3.84 to 4.11), allowed fewer runs per nine innings (3.96 to 4.95), allowed fewer home runs per nine (1.0 to 1.6) and hits (7.4 to 9.0). The stats you reference (WHIP and K/BB), it mainly skews to De Vries's side because of Deduno's egregious amount of walks (as referenced in the article). Combine that with what I believe I had presented a superior stuff, I say the scales are tipped in Deduno's favor.

Now, I am not suggesting anyone has earned a spot but if I had to rank them, and this is nothing against De Vries (who has pitched very well) but I put Deduno ahead of De Vries.