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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #5 Wander Javier

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#21 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:41 AM

Obviously an injury shouldn't increase a player's value, because objectively that's ludicrous.

 

But after seeing Sano's 2015, Kirilloff's 2018 and throw in Luis Arreaz's season last year for fun, well I'm guessing the bookies are hoping everyone takes the under on Javier this year.


#22 Nick Nelson

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:01 AM

 

Not trying to be argumentative, but Kirilloff was dropped in the rankings last year (3rd to 5th), so I agree with others above this ranking seems to have more "hope" attached to it than some of the others.

And as it turns out, we should've ranked Kirilloff higher.

 

In 2017 we had Fernando Romero as our #1 prospect despite his throwing fewer than 200 pro innings through age 21. I feel good about that decision in retrospect.

 

Everyone is welcome to quibble with our rankings, but understand that they aren't solely influenced by our personal opinions or optimistic hopes. Javier's ranking reflects what we're hearing from in the org and in the scouting community at large. Everyone's high on this kid. I think you'll find out why soon enough.

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#23 jkcarew

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:49 AM

On the one hand, kinda odd that a player would go up in the rankings despite missing the year. But then again, Romero graduated and Gordon and Gonsalves were ahead of him, right?

 

Meanwhile, he drops behind two or three guys...Graterol and Larnach among them. So, it is in fact, kinda easy to argue that Javier should be higher.

Edited by jkcarew, 11 February 2019 - 10:53 AM.

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#24 markos

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:32 AM

 

Obviously an injury shouldn't increase a player's value, because objectively that's ludicrous.

 

But after seeing Sano's 2015, Kirilloff's 2018 and throw in Luis Arreaz's season last year for fun, well I'm guessing the bookies are hoping everyone takes the under on Javier this year.

It would be hard to tease this out, but I wonder what percentage of a young player's development comes solely from their physical growth and maturation (bigger, stronger,more coordinated, more endurance), separate from the actual reps and level of competition they see.


#25 markos

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:41 AM

I am not a fan of Javier - too many red flags for me to rank him this high. He has missed long stretches across multiple seasons due to injuries; at what point do we consider him injury prone? Second, his only real stretch of playing time demonstrated that he has some real contact issues (27% K%), and his overall batting line ended up okay because of a .410 BABIP. 

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#26 MMMordabito

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:46 AM

 

Looking at that picture above confirms he is no longer the skinny kid we remember from two years ago.  

 

I had to do a double-take .... Thought it was young A-Rod photoshopped into a Twins uni


#27 JLease

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:07 PM

I think we'll get a much better feel for where Javier should rank as a prospect after this season. If he plays a full season in A ball, that's a win.

 

He's got terrific upside and the tools are real. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does during a full season facing other real prospects. How will he react to some adversity? How might he react to major success? He's a fun prospect. 

 

I might have dropped him a little lower, but that's quibbling a little. the upside is definitely there for him to be #5 in a high-quality system.


#28 The Billy Goat

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 01:50 PM

I personally would actually have him higher, above Larnach ar least. These are the type of prospects that end up as top 25 overall prospects in baseball (able to stay at a premium position with a potent bat). Larnach offers no value on defense, so he needs to be twice the offensive player as Javier. That is a lot of pressure to constantly perform year-in and year-out.

Seth or Nick might know this, but is his arm capable of making the throws from third base? My hope is a future of Javier at 3rd, Lewis at SS, and Polanco at 2nd. There doesn't seem to be any first-division prospects at 3rd in our farm system.

#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 01:54 PM

I personally would actually have him higher, above Larnach ar least. These are the type of prospects that end up as top 25 overall prospects in baseball (able to stay at a premium position with a potent bat). Larnach offers no value on defense, so he needs to be twice the offensive player as Javier. That is a lot of pressure to constantly perform year-in and year-out.

Seth or Nick might know this, but is his arm capable of making the throws from third base? My hope is a future of Javier at 3rd, Lewis at SS, and Polanco at 2nd. There doesn't seem to be any first-division prospects at 3rd in our farm system.


Corner OF isn't no value.

I have no idea if Javier will be good or not, but the certainty that people are expressing here is surprising, given how little he's played at all.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#30 The Billy Goat

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:14 PM

Everything that I have heard about Larnach from national sites seem to point that he would be a plodder in the outfield. If a player does not save runs on defense, then he would be of no value on defense. Defense has carried Kepler while he adjusts to major league pitching. Imagine the pressure on Kepler's offense if he was a nonfactor on defense.
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#31 mikelink45

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:58 PM

 

Last year, we were given quite a big of grief for our #5 prospect too. He was coming off of a missed year. He had been hurt late in 2016 and didn't have a lot of pro experience... But Alex Kirilloff turned out to be pretty good. 

 

Now,, I'm not saying that Javier will put together a 2018 Kirilloff season in 2019. I'm only saying that... I think he'll be a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball one year from now. 

 

You are right and I posted similar sentiments about Kiriloff.I am pleased where he is now, but would have still said second ten until he proved it and fortunately he did.You guys do great, it is just my personal way of looking at the prospects. 


#32 2wins87

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:59 PM

 

Everything that I have heard about Larnach from national sites seem to point that he would be a plodder in the outfield. If a player does not save runs on defense, then he would be of no value on defense. Defense has carried Kepler while he adjusts to major league pitching. Imagine the pressure on Kepler's offense if he was a nonfactor on defense.

 

"Plodder" is a little harsh from what I've heard.He will have to hit though.


#33 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:29 PM

Wanderlust is fine, as long as it's in moderation.


Always!

#34 DocBauer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:15 PM

I personally would actually have him higher, above Larnach ar least. These are the type of prospects that end up as top 25 overall prospects in baseball (able to stay at a premium position with a potent bat). Larnach offers no value on defense, so he needs to be twice the offensive player as Javier. That is a lot of pressure to constantly perform year-in and year-out.
Seth or Nick might know this, but is his arm capable of making the throws from third base? My hope is a future of Javier at 3rd, Lewis at SS, and Polanco at 2nd. There doesn't seem to be any first-division prospects at 3rd in our farm system.


Miranda might be the best long term option in the system.
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#35 DocBauer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:20 PM

Just a quick note. Got the most recent issue of Baseball America today and they had Javier listed among a top 10 list of prospects they hoped had a healthy year. They didn't get in to specifics but mentioned he was one of the top international FA in 2015 along with Vlad Jr, Tatis Jr and Juan Soto. That's some pretty heady company!
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#36 Jham

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:59 PM

Just a quick note. Got the most recent issue of Baseball America today and they had Javier listed among a top 10 list of prospects they hoped had a healthy year. They didn't get in to specifics but mentioned he was one of the top international FA in 2015 along with Vlad Jr, Tatis Jr and Juan Soto. That's some pretty heady company!


Why can't we ever have a Vlad or Tatis? Wander is an ok prospect but I haven't exactly understood the national hype. He signed for big money, so scouts were on him early. They give opinions for a living and aren't likely to change their minds for no reason so it makes sense that everyone is still on him. As I recall he got off to an incredible start then cooled significantly? I was also confused about the projections so early that he'd stay at ss. I haven't heard that he's vizquel or anything. And his frame, age, and bat suggest a possible bulk up power hitter corner type future if he wants it/ grows more.

Our writers are all pretty high not only of his abilities and health but of a progression and break out. I'm going to have to see it first, personally.
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#37 DocBauer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:52 PM

Why can't we ever have a Vlad or Tatis? Wander is an ok prospect but I haven't exactly understood the national hype. He signed for big money, so scouts were on him early. They give opinions for a living and aren't likely to change their minds for no reason so it makes sense that everyone is still on him. As I recall he got off to an incredible start then cooled significantly? I was also confused about the projections so early that he'd stay at ss. I haven't heard that he's vizquel or anything. And his frame, age, and bat suggest a possible bulk up power hitter corner type future if he wants it/ grows more.
Our writers are all pretty high not only of his abilities and health but of a progression and break out. I'm going to have to see it first, personally.


I understand and appreciate your consternation. But we DO have those types of prospects. Their names are Lewis and Khirilloff and even Graterol.

Before that was Sano and Buxton. And we can all lament the status of those two. I know I do! Only time will tell about Sano and Buck. But consider Sano was an All Star in 2017 before a very significant injury which required surgery. Buxton had a completely messed up 2018. There are HUGE questions surrounding both of these young men. Early reports are good health, both working hard and being fit and ready for 2019. We will see.

But we shouldn't be down on Javier at this point. He has shown outstanding ability when healthy. His first injury was a hamstring issue. Just one if those things? Possibly due to still growing in to his body? Who knows? The second was a torn labrum on his left, non-throwing arm.

As has been stated, young Khirilloff had an injury just as severe, if not more so, and came back with a vengeance in 2018. If he is fully healthy in 2019, Javier could be following a similar path that Khirilloff and Lewis followed last year.
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

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#38 Jham

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:53 PM

I understand and appreciate your consternation. But we DO have those types of prospects. Their names are Lewis and Khirilloff and even Graterol.

Before that was Sano and Buxton. And we can all lament the status of those two. I know I do! Only time will tell about Sano and Buck. But consider Sano was an All Star in 2017 before a very significant injury which required surgery. Buxton had a completely messed up 2018. There are HUGE questions surrounding both of these young men. Early reports are good health, both working hard and being fit and ready for 2019. We will see.

But we shouldn't be down on Javier at this point. He has shown outstanding ability when healthy. His first injury was a hamstring issue. Just one if those things? Possibly due to still growing in to his body? Who knows? The second was a torn labrum on his left, non-throwing arm.

As has been stated, young Khirilloff had an injury just as severe, if not more so, and came back with a vengeance in 2018. If he is fully healthy in 2019, Javier could be following a similar path that Khirilloff and Lewis followed last year.


Maybe I'm overly cautious. Or maybe I'm frustrated that we never trade any of our prospects for MLB talent. If more of our guys panned out, perhaps I'd be less cynical.

But I've gone on the record that I have reservations on Lewis and Kirolff as well. They're both awesome prospects. Both will have MLB careers if not injured. Both have a shot at stardom. Seth calls AK the most advanced hitter he's ever seen at that stage. Still, it's he a top 12 outfielder in baseball? Is lewis a top 6 ss? That's how fis you have to be to get to all star level. Buxton and Sano didn't hit like MLB Trout and Cabrera in the minors, let alone MiLB versions. Lewis looks like an adequate to good MLB hitter, Kiroloff looks like a good to great MLB hitter which at their positions make them fringe all stars. Not necessarily corner stones. Maybe there's no such thing as "can't miss", but just for example, look at what Vlad Jr has done before 20: https://www.baseball...id=guerre002vla

and tell me Lewis or AK deserve to be in that category.

#39 jsteve96

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 01:05 PM

 

 

I still think Nick Gordon is our most sure prospect.

How? He has never hit besides AA for half a season. And he's gonna be a 2nd baseman. 




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