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End of the FA line and ST about to start. Which of these 3 do you want?

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#61 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:17 PM

Are younger, good, guys traded? I don't get this at all.

Kluber, Bauer, Cole, Scherzer, Carrasco, Wheeler, Corbin, Foltynwicz, Mike Clevenger, German Marquez and Marco Gonzalez were all top 20 in WAR last year and traded as young pitchers; that’s more than half of them. Noah Syndegaard doesn’t even make the cut.

I count one of the top 20 who was acquired as a big money free agent; Scherzer makes both lists.

I’m not against free agents (though I am against sinkerballers), but developing and trading for your top line guys is how you’re going to turn things around. We need guys at and before their peak, that rarely happens with free agents.
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#62 DocBauer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:20 PM

First, I think it's going to be closer to 80M than 60M.  
 
Second,
 
2015: 90.5 Average Fastball Velocity - 2.48 ERA - 23.7% K rate (THAT'S HOW YOU WIN CY YOUNGS', BABY) 
2016: 89.3 - 4.55 - 20.5%
2017: 89.6 - 2.90 - 21.4%
2018: 90.2- 3.74 - 17.5%
 
Not every pitcher relies on velo for effectiveness and strikeouts.


Simply playing devil's advocate here since I appreciate the various comments pro and against Keuchel.

You are correct not every pitcher is good due to velocity or strikeouts. But there is a distinct variation in ERA as you posted. (Yes, I knkw ERA doesn't tell a complete story). But there is also a variation in SO% with a big dip in 2018.

Isn't it entirely possible Keuchel is reaching the end and is really a #3 SP at this time? The fact that he is available this late in the game tells me it's not related to Harper and Machado, and teams looking to make a significant signing if they lose out, but rather a belief that Keuchel may simply not be worth the terms he is hoping for?

Don't get me wrong, I'd be interested on a 2-3yr deal for somewhere in the $15-16M range, especially if pro-rated early in the contract. He'd provide IP and a veteran presence. Despite a very nice career, isn't this where the arrow is pointing as of now?
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#63 DocBauer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:27 PM

The point he was making was that FSN won't pay the Twins much, and then the magic refund revenue number will drop. But FSN will get the money. ....


OK. I may have missed that argument. I was more focused on the "Mauer" savings argument for any FAN purchase.

And this WAY off the intended intention of this thread, but wouldn't it be very poor business to have a bad media deal, then acquire a multi-media "empire" opportunity and then give one of your business interests an equal or worse deal?

Not sure I see the logic there.
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#64 DocBauer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:33 PM

If I had to choose one... Kimbrel. Automatically makes the bullpen better. Marwin would be next.


OK. Kimbrel it is. Rumors seem to be 2yrs at $20M per. (Somehow that still doesn't sound right to me). Are you OK with that?

Just asking.

Kimbrel, May, Reed on a projected rebound with health and his last few appearances strong, Rogers, and various options including Romero, Mejia, Moya, Parker, Vasquez, Magill, etc.
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#65 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:36 PM

Kluber, Bauer, Cole, Scherzer, Carrasco, Wheeler, Corbin, Foltynwicz, Mike Clevenger, German Marquez and Marco Gonzalez were all top 20 in WAR last year and traded as young pitchers; that’s more than half of them. Noah Syndegaard doesn’t even make the cut.

I count one of the top 20 who was acquired as a big money free agent; Scherzer makes both lists.

I’m not against free agents (though I am against sinkerballers), but developing and trading for your top line guys is how you’re going to turn things around. We need guys at and before their peak, that rarely happens with free agents.


They have one starting pitcher under control next year.... How do you propose they develop four or more? It would be great to trade for them before they are good, so far, that isn't happening here, and certainly not in less than a year.....
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#66 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:38 PM

OK. I may have missed that argument. I was more focused on the "Mauer" savings argument for any FAN purchase.

And this WAY off the intended intention of this thread, but wouldn't it be very poor business to have a bad media deal, then acquire a multi-media "empire" opportunity and then give one of your business interests an equal or worse deal?

Not sure I see the logic there.


FSN gets the money, and doesn't pay the Twins. The pohlads get the money, and Twins revenue is lower, so they can justify paying less in salaries. That's the concern, right or wrong
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#67 Jham

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:25 PM

OK. Kimbrel it is. Rumors seem to be 2yrs at $20M per. (Somehow that still doesn't sound right to me). Are you OK with that?

Just asking.

Kimbrel, May, Reed on a projected rebound with health and his last few appearances strong, Rogers, and various options including Romero, Mejia, Moya, Parker, Vasquez, Magill, etc.

As Mike said, it's only a "bad deal" for the Twins. It's a great deal for FSN who get the same broadcast rights for cheaper.

I don't buy that theory other than having secure costs. A bad TV deal would hurt the overall value of the team while not likely to benefit the network value unless they were able to maintain viewership despite fielding cheaper teams.

On the other hand... I thought I read multiple owners are in on this? Right before a new CBA? What this might allow owners to do is manipulate the amount of "revenue" they kick back to players by diverting profits to the media side of things and away from the team.

Although, somehow owners are still allowed to come to the table without actually disclosing their books...

Edited by Jham, 11 February 2019 - 10:26 PM.


#68 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:44 PM

They have one starting pitcher under control next year.... How do you propose they develop four or more? It would be great to trade for them before they are good, so far, that isn't happening here, and certainly not in less than a year.....


I agree, historically this team hadn’t done well planning ahead. Maybe they got it right with the Escobar and Pressly trades. Maybe not. There’s still time between now and next year when the rotation turns over, but it would be nice if there was more then Berrios.

No clue what the plan is, but I’ve seen nothing to indicate 2020 is any kind of target at this point.

#69 old nurse

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 06:06 AM

 

It was the expectation that Falvine would be different (a thought that, as a Minnesotan, I knew deep down I should not have) compounded with last off-season's transactions.Need a DH: sign Morrison.Need SP: sign Lynn and trade for Odo.Need BP help: sign Reed and 'Nando (and design a hell of an introductory video--maybe that's where the $30M for this year went).All of those moves made sense and gave the impression we were willing to spend money to be competitive.  

If they spent top dollar on Darvish as SP, Davis and McGee as relievers the Twins would not have been a better team.


#70 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 10:57 AM

Keuchel is getting a 1-3year deal IMO. That is the way it's gonna go down for him. There is little interest in him, I'd say he's a #3-4 type guy going forward. Just my opinion. I'd see if they can't pay him handsomely for 2 years and see if you can get a team option for the 3rd year, or I'd pass. 

 

Guys over 30, especially pitchers are from now on, just not going to get paid like they once did. Most of those deals the past 10 years haven't worked out. GMs and owners are wising up. 

 

I don't see Harper or Machado getting the deals they want either. Both are gonna see offers in the 4-6 year range. Teams are done giving out 10 year deals for guys that only perform for 3-4 years at best. 

 

The free agent market is finally correcting itself and IMO, that is a good thing for teams like the Twins. If they want to be players, now they are going to be able to. Salaries and contract lengths were getting insane. 

Edited by Battle ur tail off, 12 February 2019 - 10:58 AM.


#71 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:24 AM

 

Keuchel is getting a 1-3year deal IMO. That is the way it's gonna go down for him. There is little interest in him, I'd say he's a #3-4 type guy going forward. Just my opinion. I'd see if they can't pay him handsomely for 2 years and see if you can get a team option for the 3rd year, or I'd pass. 

 

Guys over 30, especially pitchers are from now on, just not going to get paid like they once did. Most of those deals the past 10 years haven't worked out. GMs and owners are wising up. 

 

I don't see Harper or Machado getting the deals they want either. Both are gonna see offers in the 4-6 year range. Teams are done giving out 10 year deals for guys that only perform for 3-4 years at best. 

 

The free agent market is finally correcting itself and IMO, that is a good thing for teams like the Twins. If they want to be players, now they are going to be able to. Salaries and contract lengths were getting insane. 

 

These guys aren't only going to perform for 4 years....they won't even be 30 then. I don't think people realize how rare an opportunity this is.

 

It amazes me how many posts here think salaries are insane, but don't seem to be bothered that just means that owners get the money, and players don't. Like, I really don't get this at all. The game generates ever growing revenues, of course labor should get some of that growth too. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#72 spycake

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:25 AM

 

I don't see Harper or Machado getting the deals they want either. Both are gonna see offers in the 4-6 year range. Teams are done giving out 10 year deals for guys that only perform for 3-4 years at best.

Apparently Washington already offered Harper a 10 year deal (10 years, $300 mil), although it's allegedly no longer on the table. The White Sox have reportedly offered Machado 8/250.

 

I think teams might be done giving out 10 year deals for 32 year old first basemen like Pujols. But 8-10 year deals could still make sense for some 26 year old infielders and outfielders, which could include Machado and Harper.

 

I think both Harper and Machado wanted to exceed Stanton's $325 mil contract (and/or wanted to land somewhere other than in Washington or especially with the White Sox). It will be interesting to see what they settle for.

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#73 ahart10

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:41 AM

The contracts the top FA expect to get are insane. These guys aren’t worth 50-70 times what you can from a minimum player. I don’t want the owners to pocket the money either, but that doesn’t mean they should shell it out to anyone who’s reached free agency. League minimum should be raised to 750k or 1,000,000. It would give more players more money, those whom haven’t earned as much yet and are making legit minimum wage in the minors. While also giving the owners another excuse to cry wolf for the monster contracts.

#74 Loosey

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 11:48 AM

I think if the Twins can get Keuchel for a reasonable deal, even if it's longer than ideal you have to do it.4 years /$64M and the Twins have a pitcher who can for for now be a top of the rotation arm that eats innings.The back half of his deal even if he is closer to a #5 starter in 2021 you have a guy who likely will still eat tons of innings and probably be no worse than a guy with mid 4 ERA.  

 

Basically, the Twins would have a Mark Buehrle.  

Edited by Loosey, 12 February 2019 - 11:49 AM.

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#75 cmoss84

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 12:18 PM

To take the conversation one step further, if I had the choice of:

A) Signing all 3-Kimbrel, Gonzalez and Keuchel

 

or 

 

B ) Signing Harper or Machado

 

I take option B all day. 

Edited by cmoss84, 12 February 2019 - 12:20 PM.

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#76 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 12:42 PM

 

These guys aren't only going to perform for 4 years....they won't even be 30 then. I don't think people realize how rare an opportunity this is.

 

It amazes me how many posts here think salaries are insane, but don't seem to be bothered that just means that owners get the money, and players don't. Like, I really don't get this at all. The game generates ever growing revenues, of course labor should get some of that growth too. 

 

I'm talking guys over 30. I agree with you about Machado and Harper, although it seems I worded it wrong in that post. These are rare cases where these guys are young, in their prime and have already reached unrestricted FA. I'm not bothered by the guys getting money, I am just opining on the observation of the last couple years of free agency. 

 

You and I are on the same page most of the time. I just see it as going this way. Or at least that is what it looks like right now or I don't think you would have this many good free agents still unsigned this late. 

Edited by Battle ur tail off, 12 February 2019 - 12:43 PM.

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#77 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 12:46 PM

 

It amazes me how many posts here think salaries are insane, but don't seem to be bothered that just means that owners get the money, and players don't. Like, I really don't get this at all. The game generates ever growing revenues, of course labor should get some of that growth too. 

 

I don't think that's the fan's fault so much as I think that's mostly to do with ownership very cleverly keeping their profits as obscured as possible. I mean really, a $100M payroll to 40 odd players IS insane. It's just less insane when you realize that's less than 30-40% of the revenue for the club. But nobody gets to actually know that for sure because the number can't be pinpointed and the owner's end gets to hide behind a wall of guess-timation while the player's end is posted all over the internet.

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#78 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 12:54 PM

 

It amazes me how many posts here think salaries are insane, but don't seem to be bothered that just means that owners get the money, and players don't. Like, I really don't get this at all. The game generates ever growing revenues, of course labor should get some of that growth too. 

 

I agree, Mike.We're talking about generational talents when we utter Machado and Harper.Yet, based on the categorical nature of people's aversion to long-term deals on these boards, even Mike Trout wouldn't get a deal past his 32nd birthday. 

 

It's because of this aversion labor discord is coming.People arguing for belt-tightening forget that the players and owners agreed to limit player salaries for the first 6-7 years of a player's life.This creates pools of money to spend on FAs--money which the owners now refuse to spend.It doesn't take a genius to see that if this continues through the 2021 season, there isn't going to be a 2022 season.

 

We'll see how much small market teams love having to pay $2-3M per year minimums for 1-3 years of service time and full value arbitration figures in years 4-6.Discounting a player's back-end comes at a price.In the interest of labor peace, let's sign Keuchel.  

Edited by Miggy's Little Helper, 12 February 2019 - 01:52 PM.