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End of the FA line and ST about to start. Which of these 3 do you want?

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#41 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:26 PM

 

I know I've got some mental blocks with this stuff, but paying a guy 60M over four years who can't hit 90 MPH makes me queasy. If he can't strike anyone out, he shouldn't be on the team. He's a big name but that doesn't make him a good fit.

 

First, I think it's going to be closer to 80M than 60M.  

 

Second,

 

2015: 90.5 Average Fastball Velocity - 2.48 ERA - 23.7% K rate (THAT'S HOW YOU WIN CY YOUNGS', BABY) 

2016: 89.3 - 4.55 - 20.5%

2017: 89.6 - 2.90 - 21.4%

2018: 90.2- 3.74 - 17.5%

 

Not every pitcher relies on velo for effectiveness and strikeouts.  

 

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#42 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:35 PM

 

First, I think it's going to be closer to 80M than 60M.  

 

Second,

 

2015: 90.5 Average Fastball Velocity - 2.48 ERA - 23.7% K rate (THAT'S HOW YOU WIN CY YOUNGS', BABY) 

2016: 89.3 - 4.55 - 20.5%

2017: 89.6 - 2.90 - 21.4%

2018: 90.2- 3.74 - 17.5%

 

Not every pitcher relies on velo for effectiveness and strikeouts.  

 

Unless that strikeout rate significantly improves, I'm not interested. If he's going to put the ball into play at the rate that he has been, his effectiveness is going to be significantly tied to the infield defense behind him.

 

This is a different game than it was even ten years ago. You take all the variables off of the table when you prevent the batter from putting the ball in play. 


#43 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 04:47 PM

"My view ... is the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open, not when you're got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open," Levine said on a panel at TwinsFest. "I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central, and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat."

One has to wonder exactly who Falvine lumps into "players of that magnitude". In this quote, it's Machado and Harper, but given the Twin's inaction in the wake of a $100M payroll, it'd appear that they're averse to generally signing 3-4 WAR players to multi-year deals. Assuming that's true, which again, it appears to be, Levine's quote should worry every Twins fan: we're not going to spend money on impact players unless we're the best. But we won't spend money on impactful players to move from being close to the best to the actual best. With Falvine's asinine mentality, we're doomed. We're going to be the 90s and 00s Royals.

As an aside to all of that, assuming Keuchel can be had for 4 years or less, if the Twins don't sign Keuchel, it's GM malpractice. Last year was an absolute disaster and we STILL WON 78 GAMES. What if, instead of everything going wrong like last year, things go better than expected (or even as expected) in the production department? I mean, even with EXPECTED production, Fangraphs has us 2 games out of the Wild Card game right now. Keuchel either puts you in contention for the 2nd WC spot or, if Cleveland has a disaster season (which is not so impossible to envision given their roster turnover), it could be just enough to get us over the division title line.

Next, we're going to need to spend on the rotation next year. We have one set starter for next year. Everything else is completely dependent on development. Not only does the lack of penciled-in arms increase the importance of spending this year (when the odds of winning are better), it also means that signing a pitcher for 2020 and beyond decreases the margin for error moving forward. Using the Falvine philsophy, they're not going to sign Madbum, Cole, Sale, Strasburg (assuming he opts out, which is no sure thing in today's market), etc. So who would you rather spend the money on? The only pitcher (in my mind) to even consider is Verlander on a 2-year/$40M deal for his age 37 and 38 season--a decision that decreases the odds of reaching the playoffs this year.

The end of the Hot Stove season has me seething. A complete punt job in the weakest division in baseball with the sole rival in decline.

I feel your pain. I really do... This offseason sucked big time.

Edited by Vanimal46, 11 February 2019 - 04:47 PM.


#44 ewen21

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:11 PM

 

"My view ... is the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open, not when you're got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open," Levine said on a panel at TwinsFest. "I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central, and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat."

 

One has to wonder exactly who Falvine lumps into "players of that magnitude".In this quote, it's Machado and Harper, but given the Twin's inaction in the wake of a $100M payroll, it'd appear that they're averse to generally signing 3-4 WAR players to multi-year deals.Assuming that's true, which again, it appears to be, Levine's quote should worry every Twins fan: we're not going to spend money on impact players unless we're the best.But we won't spend money on impactful players to move from being close to the best to the actual best.  With Falvine's asinine mentality, we're doomed.We're going to be the 90s and 00s Royals. 

 

As an aside to all of that, assuming Keuchel can be had for 4 years or less, if the Twins don't sign Keuchel, it's GM malpractice.Last year was an absolute disaster and we STILL WON 78 GAMES.What if, instead of everything going wrong like last year, things go better than expected (or even as expected) in the production department?I mean, even with EXPECTED production, Fangraphs has us 2 games out of the Wild Card game right now.Keuchel either puts you in contention for the 2nd WC spot or, if Cleveland has a disaster season (which is not so impossible to envision given their roster turnover), it could be just enough to get us over the division title line.  

 

Next, we're going to need to spend on the rotation next year.We have one set starter for next year.Everything else is completely dependent on development.Not only does the lack of penciled-in arms increase the importance of spending this year (when the odds of winning are better), it also means that signing a pitcher for 2020 and beyond decreases the margin for error moving forward.Using the Falvine philsophy, they're not going to sign Madbum, Cole, Sale, Strasburg (assuming he opts out, which is no sure thing in today's market), etc.So who would you rather spend the money on? The only pitcher (in my mind) to even consider is Verlander on a 2-year/$40M deal for his age 37 and 38 season--a decision that decreases the odds of reaching the playoffs this year. 

 

The end of the Hot Stove season has me seething.A complete punt job in the weakest division in baseball with the sole rival in decline.  

I am surprised you made it through the Terry Ryan years without going utterly bonkers if this offseason has you seething.


#45 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:13 PM

Keuchel has a higher career K rate than Kyle Gibson, a guy many have advocated for an extension.

#46 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:15 PM

 

Unless that strikeout rate significantly improves, I'm not interested. If he's going to put the ball into play at the rate that he has been, his effectiveness is going to be significantly tied to the infield defense behind him.

 

This is a different game than it was even ten years ago. You take all the variables off of the table when you prevent the batter from putting the ball in play. 

 

Even assuming that strikeouts were the end-all, be-all for pitchers (which they aren't), we are also looking at things from a roster standpoint.  

 

Historically, Keuchel has slightly more of a "strikeout pitcher" than Gibson and is something like an actual lightyear (186,000 miles per second times a year for those keeping track at home) ahead of Perez.Keuchel's average strikeout rate is basically on par with Odorizzi (another good argument for strikeout's aren't everything).

 

We'd all love to have 5 starters that have rate out at 12.0K/9 and 1.0BB/9.But it doesn't work like that.There wasn't even a player on the FA market like that (assuming that you believe like most of the world that Corbin's 30.8% K rate - 50% more than his historical rate - is due for regression).What matters is that Keuchel is a vastly superior pitcher to Perez and that Keuchel's inclusion in the rotation makes the team better.

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#47 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:21 PM

 

I am surprised you made it through the Terry Ryan years without going utterly bonkers if this offseason has you seething.

 

It was the expectation that Falvine would be different (a thought that, as a Minnesotan, I knew deep down I should not have) compounded with last off-season's transactions.Need a DH: sign Morrison.Need SP: sign Lynn and trade for Odo.Need BP help: sign Reed and 'Nando (and design a hell of an introductory video--maybe that's where the $30M for this year went).All of those moves made sense and gave the impression we were willing to spend money to be competitive.  


#48 ewen21

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:34 PM

 

As has been said many times, this is the year to find out whether or not Sano and /or Buxton have long careers ahead of them. They should not be on an infinite leash but the pre All Star part of the season should be sacrificed to find out one way or the other and that includes the fact that both have been injury/ailment prone. If either or both doesn't perform or goes on the (now injury list since disabled has been deemed to be politically incorrect terminology), that is it as far as I am concerned.

My point is that until this is resolved once and for all, any major position player free agent signings would be a very tough call. Plus, I think the Twins also have a new manager who may have some ideas after he gets a few games under his belt. At least I hope he does.

And there you have it.

 

Whether anyone agrees or not this is what they are doing because they cannot yet figure out if these guys will be cornerstone players.Ihave a hard time thinking about the FAs that make sense for this team because guys like Polanco, Kepler, Sano and (most of all) Buxton basically kicked us in the nuts last year.I am far more frustrated with Sano and Buxton than I am our two-headed GM. I also think I may have overrated Kepler.Love the kid, want him to do well....but I feel like I have to walk back expectations.Polanco is a strong hitter, but he really REALLY disappointed with the steroid junk.

 

YOu are right.A lot of this is on Buxton and Sano.They took a huge step back last year and it really makes it difficult to figure out the mission with these two as bad as they were.

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#49 ewen21

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:37 PM

 

It was the expectation that Falvine would be different (a thought that, as a Minnesotan, I knew deep down I should not have) compounded with last off-season's transactions.Need a DH: sign Morrison.Need SP: sign Lynn and trade for Odo.Need BP help: sign Reed and 'Nando (and design a hell of an introductory video--maybe that's where the $30M for this year went).All of those moves made sense and gave the impression we were willing to spend money to be competitive.  

Fair enough, but I guess my expectations were tempered going into this season.

Number3 hit the nail on the head.For better or worse, they are in a holding pattern right now mostly because of Sano and Buxton.


#50 Don Walcott

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 06:17 PM

I don't agree with the FO waiting to see how Buxton and Sano play before improving this team. The only positions they occupy are CF and 3B. We can hope they do better this year and still improve the rest of the team. We should be improving our pitching, regardless of how good Sano and Buxton are.

 

It seems like our FO is afraid to take any risks. Last year, they signed a bunch of guys who mostly did not work out. However, they were able to trade some of them, and the rest weren't long-term deals that would have made them look really bad. Now, we're in a similar position with no potential "albatross" contracts. However, that also means that we won't be signing the level of talent that we need to compete with Cleveland.

 

And pinning the lack of improvement for our pitching staff on Sano and Buxton seems like a way to unfairly shift the blame for the FO not doing its job onto two young players. If our pitching doesn't improve this season, I will be blaming the FO, not Buxton and Sano.

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#51 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 06:58 PM

 

Fair enough, but I guess my expectations were tempered going into this season.

Number3 hit the nail on the head.For better or worse, they are in a holding pattern right now mostly because of Sano and Buxton.

 

We are all waiting for Buxton and Sano to be what they think they can be.The risk is this: what if one or both have a monster year?If you don't spend, you could essentially "waste" a year--and not only that, you could arguably waste the year you've fielded the best overall roster with both of them on your team.Time is running out for Sano and Buxton after this year, only 2 years and 3 years, respectively, after 2019.The core is getting more expensive and the replacement talent doesn't appear likely to be as good in 2020.You're probably banking on taking one last shot in 2021 when you have full seasons of Buxton, Sano, Kiriloff, and Lewis on the roster.By then, of course, we might not "clearly be the best team in the division" because the White Sox will likely be competitive--especially if they sign Machado or Harper (or, God forbid, both).  

 

Also the rational response cannot be, "we'll just trade at the deadline."There's a serious chance that, if the Twins are in the race, the difference will be 1-2 games.That's the expected difference between Keuchel and Perez over a half (and, if we wait until the deadline, slightly more than half) season.Sure, we could always trade for a prime-Madbum-like player, who in theory could cover the difference, but that's not sensical for two reasons: (1) you could sign Keuchel AND trade for the Madbum-like player (putting you in the Falvine-throat-stepping GO ZONE); or (2) you'd be raiding the minors to cover a plain error.Of course, based on Falvine's logic, you wouldn't trade for a Madbum-like player in a close race because even though you're in the race, you're not "clearly the best team in the division."It's not worth the outlay for a rental.  

 

Also, again, a lack of action on a multi-year front is short-sighted because they're going to be signing FAs next year out of necessity anyways (lest we reboot the 2013 Twins offseason plan (Correa, Pelfrey and the Vanimal (and May) for Revere).If they go that route, they're in Loria-esque payroll territory.

 

Compare all of that with doing nothing.The Twins might save $20M if they don't sign Keuchel--that's the only advantage.But, it's not a "savings" that will be rolled over into next year or the year after.If the advantage is saving money otherwise allocated to payroll by formula, why even compete in the first place?Why waste $14.3M on Cruz?When you could've used an Austin/Duda platoon.Why waste $7.5M on Schoop?We could call up Gordon and see what he's got or play Adrianza until mid-season.Why tender Odorizzi at $9.5M?Fernando Romero time.That's another "wasted" $31M-ish!Now the Pohlads saved over $50M!  

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#52 ahart10

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:27 PM

Infield defense isn’t the need it was in years past due to the shift.

#53 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:37 PM

Keuchel has a higher career K rate than Kyle Gibson, a guy many have advocated for an extension.

Gibson’s strikeout rate only increased after he started using his slider more and de-ephisized his sinker. Gibson’s transformation is a prime example why Keuchel isn’t a fit; Gibson wasn’t good when he was doing what Keuchel does now. Keuchel likely won’t change if he gets paid. Plus his velocity is too low for a nice 4 seamer and slider to work.

And I don’t want to extend Gibson, he’s too old now.

#54 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:48 PM

Gibson’s strikeout rate only increased after he started using his slider more and de-ephisized his sinker. Gibson’s transformation is a prime example why Keuchel isn’t a fit; Keuchel likely won’t change if he gets paid. Plus his velocity is too low for a nice 4 seamer and slider to work.

And I don’t want to extend Gibson, he’s too old now.


Too old? I mean, what? What free agent would you ever sign if you won't sign a 31 year old? Help me understand what your are saying
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#55 Twodogs

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:57 PM

Kimbrel

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#56 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:05 PM

Too old? I mean, what? What free agent would you ever sign if you won't sign a 31 year old? Help me understand what your are saying


Develop your own frontline guys and/or trade for them. If you need free agents identify guys who haven’t peaked yet, but don’t expect them to be anything other than league average. Pitchers don’t tend to de-age, they’re unlikely to be better for your team than their previous team.

And never return the call from an agent of a sinkerballer.

I’d take Harper and Machado. I’d take Kimbrel and would have been happy with a dozen other relievers. But just because someone is a high profile free agent doesn’t mean he’s a good fit for this team. Keuchel fits monetarily, I don’t see the fit strategically.

#57 Thrylos

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:25 PM

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ He stopped playing when I was 2 years old. I need a more recent comparison.

 

Logan Forsythe.There.Should be pretty recent ;)

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#58 DocBauer

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:47 PM

That couldn't be worse for fans, FSN gives the twins a bad TV deal, the Phlads make a ton on the FSN side, and cut Twins payroll because of a bad TV deal, seems like a win win for them and as loss for the fans.


Not directed to you Tom, I just used your quote to address the issue.

If the Pohlad's buy the FSN, or a controlling interest it will be a multi-million dollar purchase, if not a cool $B. Shorting the 2019 Twins payroll a few $M is a Twins business decision and has nothing to do with an FSN purchase.

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#59 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:58 PM

Not directed to you Tom, I just used your quote to address the issue.

If the Pohlad's buy the FSN, or a controlling interest it will be a multi-million dollar purchase, if not a cool $B. Shorting the 2019 Twins payroll a few $M is a Twins business decision and has nothing to do with an FSN purchase.


The point he was making was that FSN won't pay the Twins much, and then the magic refund revenue number will drop. But FSN will get the money. ....

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#60 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:59 PM

Develop your own frontline guys and/or trade for them. If you need free agents identify guys who haven’t peaked yet, but don’t expect them to be anything other than league average. Pitchers don’t tend to de-age, they’re unlikely to be better for your team than their previous team.

And never return the call from an agent of a sinkerballer.

I’d take Harper and Machado. I’d take Kimbrel and would have been happy with a dozen other relievers. But just because someone is a high profile free agent doesn’t mean he’s a good fit for this team. Keuchel fits monetarily, I don’t see the fit strategically.


Are younger, good, guys traded? I don't get this at all.

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....