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End of the FA line and ST about to start. Which of these 3 do you want?

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#21 ashbury

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 02:54 PM

I do find Gonzalez markedly better than Adrianza... Gonzalez has a career 111 OPS+ over his last 5 years, and has logged innings all over the field, with the exception of pitcher and catcher. Adrianza has a career OPS+ of 80...

I am super leery of Gonzalez's career year in 2017. Without it, his baseline going forward looks like an OPS just slightly above .700. Ehire's sample-size is smaller but his last three seasons suggest a baseline just under .700. If you factor in defense then the edge for Marwin is even harder for me to see.

 

If he's got another 2017 in him, he's worth the money that's been suggested, and indeed he should earn starter's minutes.

 

I don't claim to be an expert in forecasting but part of the art is in detecting an outlier versus meaningful information for going forward, and for better or for worse I try. :)

 

 

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#22 Roaddog

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 03:23 PM

If I had to choose one... Kimbrel. Automatically makes the bullpen better. Marwin would be next.
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#23 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 03:24 PM

Yeah Marwin Gonzalez only filled in everywhere on a WS contending team... Why would we need him here?


You realize you are describing Al Newman?
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#24 RaymondLuxuryYacht

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Posted 10 February 2019 - 06:07 PM

Somebody spelled I'm a snarky old fart wrong

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#25 Number3

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:55 AM

As has been said many times, this is the year to find out whether or not Sano and /or Buxton have long careers ahead of them. They should not be on an infinite leash but the pre All Star part of the season should be sacrificed to find out one way or the other and that includes the fact that both have been injury/ailment prone. If either or both doesn't perform or goes on the (now injury list since disabled has been deemed to be politically incorrect terminology), that is it as far as I am concerned.

My point is that until this is resolved once and for all, any major position player free agent signings would be a very tough call. Plus, I think the Twins also have a new manager who may have some ideas after he gets a few games under his belt. At least I hope he does.

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#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 09:26 AM

You realize you are describing Al Newman?


¯\_(ツ)_/¯ He stopped playing when I was 2 years old. I need a more recent comparison.

#27 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:02 AM

People are actually annoyed it is now the injured list? Wow
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:30 AM

There are still free agents I want, but I don't want them now. Well, maybe Harper and Machado on a long term deal, but nobody else.

 

It's not just the Twins, it seems that nearly everyone who signs late struggles or is resentful. I'm sure there are some exceptions, but it's too late now. Waiting to sign a guy until he relents and accepts a below market offer needs to have a deadline of before pitchers and catcher report.

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#29 James

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 10:44 AM

 

People are actually annoyed it is now the injured list? Wow

 

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#30 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:19 AM

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ He stopped playing when I was 2 years old. I need a more recent comparison.


Nick Punto only less of a hitter. WAY less.

#31 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:46 AM

 

I'd rather pay $20 million/year for 200 innings than 60. I'd also rather sign up Keuchel to 4 years than 1 or 2. I expect he'll be a top-end starter for another 4-6 years. And he'd really help out our young guys in learning how to pitch.

 

He's a groundball machine and the Twins have Sano and Polanco making up half of the infield. I don't think he's been a top end pitcher in three years, but what ever he was, he is not a fit with the defensive makeup of this team. He led the league in Hits given up last year, I can't imagine how many he would have given up had he been on the Twins.

 

 

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#32 Steve Lein

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:05 PM

I had Marwin Gonzalez as my #1 Free Agent target for the Twins, so I'll say him.

 

I will take any of them, however.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)

#33 spycake

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:59 PM

 

I am super leery of Gonzalez's career year in 2017. Without it, his baseline going forward looks like an OPS just slightly above .700. Ehire's sample-size is smaller but his last three seasons suggest a baseline just under .700. If you factor in defense then the edge for Marwin is even harder for me to see.

 

If he's got another 2017 in him, he's worth the money that's been suggested, and indeed he should earn starter's minutes.

 

I don't claim to be an expert in forecasting but part of the art is in detecting an outlier versus meaningful information for going forward, and for better or for worse I try. :)

 

Marwin Gonzalez's Steamer projection largely agrees with you, pegging him at 104 wRC+ for 2019. That would be a repeat of his 2018 season wRC+, but in the 4 years prior (2014-2017), he exceeded 104 three times -- and of course he had that peak of 144 in 2017. Eyeballing it, it looks like he has a decent chance of beating that projection, and a non-negligible chance of beating it handily.

 

Adrianza, on the other hand, is projected at 85 wRC+ and he's actually never even reached that mark, really (72 wRC+ in his Giants career, then 84 and 82 in his Twins career so far). He might have the same chance of reaching 100 wRC+ as Gonzalez has of approaching 144 again. Adrianza is virtually the same age as Gonzalez too (both turn 30 this year).

 

Adrianza has the edge defensively, but Gonzalez isn't bad for his career -- his career UZR/150 at 2B, SS, and 3B ranges from -5 to -7. I'd say it largely comes down to how much you buy their small sample numbers at 3B, since they could see most of their infield action there. FWIW, Gonzalez has rated well in the corner outfield and at 1B, and could be a viable starter at those spots -- and the Twins have some uncertainty at those spots too.

 

Obviously it all depends on the terms of a deal. I'd rather target pitching, but a short term deal for Gonzalez might be better than simply sitting on the cash.

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#34 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:02 PM

"My view ... is the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open, not when you're got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open," Levine said on a panel at TwinsFest. "I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central, and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat."

 

One has to wonder exactly who Falvine lumps into "players of that magnitude".In this quote, it's Machado and Harper, but given the Twin's inaction in the wake of a $100M payroll, it'd appear that they're averse to generally signing 3-4 WAR players to multi-year deals.Assuming that's true, which again, it appears to be, Levine's quote should worry every Twins fan: we're not going to spend money on impact players unless we're the best.But we won't spend money on impactful players to move from being close to the best to the actual best.  With Falvine's asinine mentality, we're doomed.We're going to be the 90s and 00s Royals. 

 

As an aside to all of that, assuming Keuchel can be had for 4 years or less, if the Twins don't sign Keuchel, it's GM malpractice.Last year was an absolute disaster and we STILL WON 78 GAMES.What if, instead of everything going wrong like last year, things go better than expected (or even as expected) in the production department?I mean, even with EXPECTED production, Fangraphs has us 2 games out of the Wild Card game right now.Keuchel either puts you in contention for the 2nd WC spot or, if Cleveland has a disaster season (which is not so impossible to envision given their roster turnover), it could be just enough to get us over the division title line.  

 

Next, we're going to need to spend on the rotation next year.We have one set starter for next year.Everything else is completely dependent on development.Not only does the lack of penciled-in arms increase the importance of spending this year (when the odds of winning are better), it also means that signing a pitcher for 2020 and beyond decreases the margin for error moving forward.Using the Falvine philsophy, they're not going to sign Madbum, Cole, Sale, Strasburg (assuming he opts out, which is no sure thing in today's market), etc.So who would you rather spend the money on? The only pitcher (in my mind) to even consider is Verlander on a 2-year/$40M deal for his age 37 and 38 season--a decision that decreases the odds of reaching the playoffs this year. 

 

The end of the Hot Stove season has me seething.A complete punt job in the weakest division in baseball with the sole rival in decline.  

 

 

 

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#35 Don Walcott

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:03 PM

 

He's a groundball machine and the Twins have Sano and Polanco making up half of the infield. I don't think he's been a top end pitcher in three years, but what ever he was, he is not a fit with the defensive makeup of this team. He led the league in Hits given up last year, I can't imagine how many he would have given up had he been on the Twins.

Generally, the guys who give up the most hits also pitch the most innings. Keuchel got the third most outs in the league last year.

 

I'm not as worried about the specific personnel on the infield because of how much we shift. And with Buxton back, the outfield defense is going to take away a lot of hits. Kuechel has a 3.66 career ERA playing half of his games in a much better hitter's park than Target Field.

 

Not sure what "top end" means. But if he pitches 200 innings sub-4 ERA, that makes things a whole lot easier on the rest of the staff and bullpen.

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#36 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:26 PM

Also, GM malpractice theory #2.The Twins decide to not sign any impactful players between now and the end of Spring Training and fail to use the $30M of available payroll space to frontload extensions for Berrios and Rosario.Letting $30M sit by the wayside--never to be used again based on the insane 50% of revenue rule--would be inexcusable. 

 

Defense to GM malpractice: Pohlad set payroll at $100M and Falvine has to spin (probably so the Pohlads could, in part, pay for the purchase of FSN--which of course will not constitute useable revenue for future Twins payroll).

Edited by Miggy's Little Helper, 11 February 2019 - 02:27 PM.

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#37 Tomj14

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 02:51 PM

 

 

Defense to GM malpractice: Pohlad set payroll at $100M and Falvine has to spin (probably so the Pohlads could, in part, pay for the purchase of FSN--which of course will not constitute useable revenue for future Twins payroll).

That couldn't be worse for fans, FSN gives the twins a bad TV deal, the Phlads make a ton on the FSN side, and cut Twins payroll because of a bad TV deal, seems like a win win for them and as loss for the fans.

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#38 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:09 PM

 

That couldn't be worse for fans, FSN gives the twins a bad TV deal, the Phlads make a ton on the FSN side, and cut Twins payroll because of a bad TV deal, seems like a win win for them and as loss for the fans.

I agree with you.If that's what's going on, it excuses Falvine from the blame.At that point, it'd all be on the Pohlads.  

Edited by Miggy's Little Helper, 11 February 2019 - 03:09 PM.

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#39 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:24 PM

 

Generally, the guys who give up the most hits also pitch the most innings. Keuchel got the third most outs in the league last year.

 

I'm not as worried about the specific personnel on the infield because of how much we shift. And with Buxton back, the outfield defense is going to take away a lot of hits. Kuechel has a 3.66 career ERA playing half of his games in a much better hitter's park than Target Field.

 

Not sure what "top end" means. But if he pitches 200 innings sub-4 ERA, that makes things a whole lot easier on the rest of the staff and bullpen.

 

I know I've got some mental blocks with this stuff, but paying a guy 60M over four years who can't hit 90 MPH makes me queasy. If he can't strike anyone out, he shouldn't be on the team. He's a big name but that doesn't make him a good fit.

 

If the rest of the league didn't agree he'd already be signed; no one's holding him up now, the top free agent pitcher was signed months ago. It's the same reason Lynn and Cobb went for way less than projected and/or had to wait into spring training to sign last year. If a pitcher has to rely on his infield to get all of his outs because he can't get them on his own, he's much less valuable. All outs are not equal and based on trend of sinkerball pitchers on the free agent market the last several years, the teams feel the same.

 

And unless they come up with some new outfield-less shift, I don't know how Buxton and company are going to take away many hits. Only 24% of his outs were flyballs last year. Every batter will be taking aim at the dirt right between Sano and Polanco.


#40 Don Walcott

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 03:36 PM

 

I know I've got some mental blocks with this stuff, but paying a guy 60M over four years who can't hit 90 MPH makes me queasy. If he can't strike anyone out, he shouldn't be on the team. He's a big name but that doesn't make him a good fit.

 

If the rest of the league didn't agree he'd already be signed; no one's holding him up now, the top free agent pitcher was signed months ago. It's the same reason Lynn and Cobb went for way less than projected and/or had to wait into spring training to sign last year. If a pitcher has to rely on his infield to get all of his outs because he can't get them on his own, he's much less valuable. All outs are not equal and based on trend of sinkerball pitchers on the free agent market the last several years, the teams feel the same.

 

And unless they come up with some new outfield-less shift, I don't know how Buxton and company are going to take away many hits. Only 24% of his outs were flyballs last year. Every batter will be taking aim at the dirt right between Sano and Polanco.

He struck out 153 major league batters last year. It's not like he can't strike anyone out. His FIP and ERA are consistent, and both well below 4 for his career. So he's somehow figured out how to get a lot of guys out without giving up many runs, despite not lighting up the radar the way you'd like.

 

Why he hasn't been signed yet? I don't know. Maybe teams like the Twins are playing games with free agents, and a bunch of teams aren't trying to win. Why aren't Harper, Machado and Kimbrel signed yet? Does the rest of the league think they aren't very good?

 

If every batter approaches Keuchel by trying to hit the ball on the ground between third and short, I predict he'll have a great season, regardless of who is playing in the infield.

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