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Twins should be taking advantage of this market

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#61 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 09:30 PM

 

Agree to disagree. I get that most posters don’t see it my way. Which I am fine with.

Sure, I can let it go but it seems strange to play up Ryan's last tenure when I just laid out some pretty brutal ugliness of seriously high draft picks.

 

If you have a rebuttal, I'm open to hearing it.

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#62 old nurse

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 09:50 PM

 

It could happen to even super fit 24 year olds..... If you are going to fear any long term deals, good luck having sustained success.

And you left off the part where he was still better than all but 25 players, many of which are older, or under contract.

Other than Beltre and Hunter, very few longer term free agent signings have worked. Scherzer and Cano are in the middle of their deals, they are working out so far. Many have one or two good years then are unproductive.

 

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#63 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 09:53 PM

 

I get all that and am not going to pretend he wasn’t slow to analytics etc. however he had more success than most GMs and even in his “unsuccessful “ second tenure he rebuilt the farm system to the point it provided most of our current starters. I feel most posters are quick to dump on him and view Falvine favorably for no apparent reason. Ultimately that role comes down to proper decisions whether you do it from a scouts eye or a spreadsheet. I don’t care how analytically the decisions are made if they are wrong then it’s a failure. So far they have not proven astute in this area. I am excited about some of the methods they are using with their pitching prospects but that is really the only area where I see promise

 

I know you do and I get your point. Everybody is doing the analytic thing these days. They are going to have to take this thing to a different level beyond that. Jury is still out. 

 

You just shocked some of us with the take Ryan back comment.:)

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#64 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 10:06 PM

Other than Beltre and Hunter, very few longer term free agent signings have worked. Scherzer and Cano are in the middle of their deals, they are working out so far. Many have one or two good years then are unproductive.


They weren't 26.......

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#65 old nurse

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 06:28 AM

 

They weren't 26.......

Jason Heyward was 26 when he signed his long term deal.fwar 1,1 and 2 post signing. There is nothing saying that being 26 is the end all. There are many free agents signing at 28, 29 who do not meattheir prior performances.there are many who do.


#66 killertwinfan

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 07:29 AM

 

This may be one of the smarter statements I have heard about the free agent market.The factor used for risk in their equation could trump the possibility for the 10 year high dollar deals.The players have to chose for high salary or high security.They can't have both until the risk factor is adjusted.  

Edited by killertwinfan, 13 February 2019 - 07:30 AM.

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#67 Riverbrian

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 07:38 AM

 

This may be one of the smarter statements I have heard about the free agent market.The factor used for risk in their equation could trump the possibility for the 10 year high dollar deals.The players have to chose for high salary or high security.They can't have both until the risk factor is adjusted.  

 

Here's what I imagine in my head. I could be wrong... I could be right.

 

All teams have increased analytic departments. 

 

A collection of smart people will eventually get around to analyzing the value of every free agent ever signed.

 

They will look at the money spent and the production received for that money spent. 

 

At the same time they will get around to analyzing the money spent and the production of players that haven't reached free agency. 

 

They will then look at both sets of numbers and compare. 

 

The end result is the end of free agency as we know it.

 

I feel fine

 

 

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#68 killertwinfan

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 07:50 AM

 

Wow that seems a little shortsighted.  Berrios and Gibson were both in the top 15 in the AL in WAR for pitchers last year.  Odorizzi had his worst season on the majors and still was top 50.  Pineda has good stuff coming back from TJS.  Have 5 to 6 options with either Majors or AAA experience waiting in the wings.  Not sure how that equates to 70 wins.  Last year where a lot of things went wrong, including basically lost seasons from Sano and Buxton and we won 78.  We lost no one of importance, added a much better DH in Cruz, Sano and Buxton really can't be any worse, the still young guys like Kepler, Berrios, Hildenberger have another year of experience but somehow we are going to be 10 games worse than last year?

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.The record is 39 by the Marlins.Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.  

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#69 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 08:17 AM

 

Here's what I imagine in my head. I could be wrong... I could be right.

 

All teams have increased analytic departments. 

 

A collection of smart people will eventually get around to analyzing the value of every free agent ever signed.

 

They will look at the money spent and the production received for that money spent. 

 

At the same time they will get around to analyzing the money spent and the production of players that haven't reached free agency. 

 

They will then look at both sets of numbers and compare. 

 

The end result is the end of free agency as we know it.

 

I feel fine

 

Yes and yes.Free agency as we know it only exists because players aren't paid their true value for the first 6-7 years.If analytics departments are now averse to spending money on free agents, and want to pay for productivity, then the natural result is that the players will demand to be paid more in years 1-7.   

 

Analytics has no regard for the aftermath of gaming the system to unlock value (the result of which is apparently increased revenue retention by owners) in a world where the rules of the system have to be collectively bargained at periodic intervals.It's short-sighted and stupid--pennywise and pound foolish.We should all fear what is to come in 2022.  

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#70 Supfin99

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 08:23 AM

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.The record is 39 by the Marlins.Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.


I guess we agree to disagree. Like you said last year we were among the worst in the AL in blown saves and yet we still won 78 games. Reed was terrible for most of the year and Hilgenberger struggled massively in the 2nd half. How exactly will our run production go down? No one had a career type year, Buck, Sano and LoMo were terrible. It will be hard for for Cron, Buck and Sano to be that bad this year. Cruz is a massive upgrade. Castro returns and Garver in his second season. Kepler disappointed and Polanco missed half the season. Right now I look at our lineup and if some things break right I see us scoring 800 runs like we did in 2017.
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#71 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:07 AM

Jason Heyward was 26 when he signed his long term deal. fwar 1,1 and 2 post signing. There is nothing saying that being 26 is the end all. There are many free agents signing at 28, 29 who do not meat their prior performances. there are many who do.


So what's your point? Don't sign free agents because they might get hurt, or not be good? I'm but sure where this is going.
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#72 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:31 AM

 

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.The record is 39 by the Marlins.Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.  

 

That's why most of us just wanted them to sign Cruz, which they did, and bring in 2-3 TOP relief arms. I think that is all that was needed to be competitive in the Central. The problem is, they brought in a couple scrap heap pitchers and are hoping and praying on their bullpen. They had the money, they should have identified who they thought were the best 2 out there available in either FA or trade and paid whatever it took to get them. They didn't and that's why most are frustrated. 


#73 howieramone2

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:36 AM

 

Did he, though? Look at those top six draft picks he had: Buxton (okay, maybe something there but underwhelming considering the hype), Kohl Stewart (ooh, maybe not so hot), Nick Gordon (looking less awesome by the day), and Tyler Jay (sigh).

He had four years of top picks and not a single one of them has turned into even an every day regular.

 

The Twins' farm system should be better than it is right now, as should the MLB team. That's on Ryan. I gave him every benefit of the doubt but very little he did in his second tenure turned out (we have Berrios and then little worth mentioning after that).

LaVelle told us, TR was in charge of IFA during the Bill Smith era. We know he started the initiative circa 2005 or 2006. Look at how many of those players are around. Don't forget Romero and Graterol.

 

Also, it's amazing how many teams are not consistently or wholeheartedly making an effort in IFA. We have been one of the best for almost 10 years. 


#74 howieramone2

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:39 AM

 

Sure, I can let it go but it seems strange to play up Ryan's last tenure when I just laid out some pretty brutal ugliness of seriously high draft picks.

 

If you have a rebuttal, I'm open to hearing it.

See mine.


#75 howieramone2

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:42 AM

 

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.The record is 39 by the Marlins.Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.  

We are going to score mucho more runs this year. A far better over/under is 84.

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#76 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 09:54 AM

We are going to score mucho more runs this year. A far better over/under is 84.


Agreed.
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#77 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:22 AM

 

Why did Cruz come, if it is about more than money?

I think Cruz actually is a good example of my thesis. He had very few options as a player who can only be a full time DH. There weren't very many teams looking for that and a quick review suggests to me that the big boys either had a full time DH type (Boston, Angels) or had talent to rotate through that spot and prefer to do that (Yankees and Houston). Add in Seattle and Cleveland downsizing payroll such that they didn't want to pay for a 10-15m DH type and that really only leaves Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Twins, and maybe Texas as teams with a chance to compete in his 2 year playing window. The two teams rumored to be in on Cruz were the Twins and Tampa and that kind of makes sense when you think about it, at least to me.I think Cruz wound up going to what he saw as the most competitive team that would logically want him in the Twins. Tampa is better right now but they play in the brutal AL East where the Twins play in the much softer Central so we have the better shot at making the playoffs.  

Edited by LA VIkes Fan, 13 February 2019 - 10:24 AM.

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#78 Miggy's Little Helper

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:22 AM

Also, it's easy to freak out about relief pitching, but relief pitching is the most volatile asset on a team.Reed, Parker, May, Hildenberger, and Rogers are all very solid relief assets.It doesn't excuse the team from not signing Allen to a 1-year deal, but I wouldn't say that we're helpless in close games.We've got some serious talent. 

 

 

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#79 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:27 AM

I don't know if everyone saw this, but Jon Heyman is tweeting that Harper has shot down any offers that aren't long term. Heyman says the Giants 5 year offer was rejected as too short. I'd imbed the tweet but I'm technologically challenged (don't know how to do that), not on twitter like ever, and only saw it in a CBS sports article.

 

And yes, I'm talking about Harper and hijacking the thread. My bad. 

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#80 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:31 AM

 

LaVelle told us, TR was in charge of IFA during the Bill Smith era.

For the record, I've not been able to find any cite for this claim at all. And there was quite extensive reporting about how the Twins landed Miguel Sano in 2009 (as well as Kepler and Polanco that same year) -- and none of those reports even mention Terry Ryan.

 

I don't doubt that you believe you heard or read this from LaVelle, but I think it's very likely that LaVelle was either incorrect or misinterpreted.

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