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Terry Ryan's "Thin" SP Market Quote

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#31 tmerrickkeller

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 12:59 PM

I also don't want to wait, given this crop of free agents, to see what settles to the bottom. That has too often been our strategy, on the small-market assumption that teams will overpay early in the process and then there will be this glut of cheap and available pitchers just looking for work. I don't want to choose from that well, as we have done over and over again. How about we pick out a couple of those guys (I'd love Marcum and Blanton, but there are a lot of names out there) and sign them for reasonable contracts? It sends a positive message that we're not going to sit on our heels, we're going to spend the freed-up money from expiring contracts to improve this team with solid pitchers with a track record of longevity or success or upside. It will shock me if the team actually does this, but they should, then have a starting rotation of Marcum, Blanton, Diamond, Deduno, Hendriks, with Gibson, DeVries, Walter waiting in the wings or for emergency starts. After all, we started the year thinking it was Baker, Blackburn, Liriano, Pavano and Marquis and that went haywire.

#32 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 01:00 PM

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.

#33 Boom Boom

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 01:09 PM

The Twins' best chance to upgrade their rotation is through a trade, but Span alone won't get it done.

My prediction is that Span and a prospect will be traded for an AA starter and maybe a throw-in. And the Twins will sign one "filler" starter a la Marquis.

#34 mike wants wins

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 01:21 PM

Ok, ya, that was unrealistic....

#35 Shane Wahl

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 03:41 PM

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.


Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.

#36 Shane Wahl

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 03:54 PM

Why don't we locate the possible extremes of what they could do and then work towards a reasonable center . . .

One extreme, they sign NO pitchers (except for going low-base on Baker) and instead chase down the MI route again . . . rolling out of ST with Diamond-Deduno-DeVries-Hendriks-Walters or Vasquez, and Baker, Gibson, and Hernandez are in AAA (or on the DL in Baker's case).

On the other possible extreme they sign Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, and let's say Ervin Santana for 2-3 years each and 8-12 million (low 2 years and $48 million, high 3 years $108 million).

Back to the other extreme: Everything stays the same except they sign either a Joe Saunders or an Erik Bedard on a one-year, $5 million deal.

Etc. Etc. Maybe this is more structured than just throwing out names.

#37 Shane Wahl

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 03:55 PM

Perhaps the point is that the most likely scenario involves Ervin Santana and Erik Bedard!

#38 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 04:21 PM

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.


Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.


Marcum has proven he can pitch in the AL East with an ERA+ well over 100. I'll take it. He hasn't been quite as good with Milwaukee (surprisingly) but I think he's still a decent pitcher. He has lost something on his fastball (down in the 87mph range now) so he's not my first choice but he wouldn't be a terrible signing by the Twins, I think.

#39 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:50 PM

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.


Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.


$30 mil over 3 years? yeah I would be all over that one champ, but notice I said 40 mil over 3 years, which is what it would probably cost. No thanks. He is one the wrong side of thirty...let someone else over pay for him at this point.

#40 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 21 September 2012 - 09:52 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Shane Wahl'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.[/QUOTE]

Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.[/QUOTE]

Marcum has proven he can pitch in the AL East with an ERA+ well over 100. I'll take it. He hasn't been quite as good with Milwaukee (surprisingly) but I think he's still a decent pitcher. He has lost something on his fastball (down in the 87mph range now) so he's not my first choice but he wouldn't be a terrible signing by the Twins, I think.[/QUOTE]

It's all relative, if the Twins can get him on a 2 year/18 mil deal its a good signing, but the minute you start competeing with a bunch of other teams to overpay him, its a bad signing plain and simple. The rotation is absolute dog **** no doubt, but the solution isn't to go out and over pay for a bunch of "solid #3 type guys" the solution is to trade some assets for some high upside guys who can be top of the rotation guys, and give 1-2 year deals to guys who's value is low, but have the potential to be high upside guys (see: SCOTT BAKER!!!!!!)

#41 Wolfy

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 07:55 AM

The Twins don't need to get a top 10 pitcher in here next year to turn the staff around. They added Pavano in 2009 and he wound up having a great, bounce back year after 3-4 consecutive mediocre seasons.

His presence led a staff that, by and large was pretty average at best, to some very good numbers in 2010. One guy with the right attitude, having a good season can make a huge difference, especially in this division.

It would be a huge mistake to dump 20 million dollars or more into one guy like Grienke or Peavy simply because they are the best of an average group of FA pitchers.

#42 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 08:09 AM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Shane Wahl'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.[/QUOTE]

Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.[/QUOTE]

Marcum has proven he can pitch in the AL East with an ERA+ well over 100. I'll take it. He hasn't been quite as good with Milwaukee (surprisingly) but I think he's still a decent pitcher. He has lost something on his fastball (down in the 87mph range now) so he's not my first choice but he wouldn't be a terrible signing by the Twins, I think.[/QUOTE]

It's all relative, if the Twins can get him on a 2 year/18 mil deal its a good signing, but the minute you start competeing with a bunch of other teams to overpay him, its a bad signing plain and simple. The rotation is absolute dog **** no doubt, but the solution isn't to go out and over pay for a bunch of "solid #3 type guys" the solution is to trade some assets for some high upside guys who can be top of the rotation guys, and give 1-2 year deals to guys who's value is low, but have the potential to be high upside guys (see: SCOTT BAKER!!!!!!)[/QUOTE]

I agree and I disagree. With Marcum, Peavy, Jackson, and Sanchez all offering similar expected performance/money/years this offseason, now is the time to sign a guy to a 3-4 year deal at $10-13m per. Chances are you won't be able to repeat that signing next year (or the following year) because the fewer of those guys there are on the market, the higher the price is driven. It's going to be awhile until we see this many league-average or slightly above league-average guys in the same offseason. It'd be a shame for the Twins to pass on picking up one of them.

This team gave a 34 year old Pavano $8m a year over two years. They shouldn't balk at giving a guy aged 28-31 $11m a year over three or four years.

#43 jorgenswest

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 12:06 PM

Top of the rotation, middle of the rotation, back end... Does it matter anymore?

It used to be the the top guy would get the ball on his day and back end guys would miss starts. Teams would use the all star break to get an extra start for a top guy. Other than the Tigers, teams don't do this anymore. The Twins don't. They did the opposite at the all star break to give Diamond a rest.

Somehow it would be good to get 10 WAR out of their starting pitchers next year. Does it matter if they get 2 WAR from 5 slots?

There are guys available that can be counted on for 2 WAR. It may cost 5 mil/1 WAR.

I think Baker is a guy that can provide 2 WAR over 2/3 a season. They can guarantee his spot by picking up the option or negotiating now.

Diamond or Deduno? Maybe with luck.

That still leaves two guys to find.

I should concede now that while during the season a front line pitcher no longer matters as much, it will matter in the playoffs. I hope we have such problems next year.

#44 Shane Wahl

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 01:20 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Shane Wahl'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.[/QUOTE]

Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.[/QUOTE]

Marcum has proven he can pitch in the AL East with an ERA+ well over 100. I'll take it. He hasn't been quite as good with Milwaukee (surprisingly) but I think he's still a decent pitcher. He has lost something on his fastball (down in the 87mph range now) so he's not my first choice but he wouldn't be a terrible signing by the Twins, I think.[/QUOTE]

It's all relative, if the Twins can get him on a 2 year/18 mil deal its a good signing, but the minute you start competeing with a bunch of other teams to overpay him, its a bad signing plain and simple. The rotation is absolute dog **** no doubt, but the solution isn't to go out and over pay for a bunch of "solid #3 type guys" the solution is to trade some assets for some high upside guys who can be top of the rotation guys, and give 1-2 year deals to guys who's value is low, but have the potential to be high upside guys (see: SCOTT BAKER!!!!!!)[/QUOTE]

I agree and I disagree. With Marcum, Peavy, Jackson, and Sanchez all offering similar expected performance/money/years this offseason, now is the time to sign a guy to a 3-4 year deal at $10-13m per. Chances are you won't be able to repeat that signing next year (or the following year) because the fewer of those guys there are on the market, the higher the price is driven. It's going to be awhile until we see this many league-average or slightly above league-average guys in the same offseason. It'd be a shame for the Twins to pass on picking up one of them.

This team gave a 34 year old Pavano $8m a year over two years. They shouldn't balk at giving a guy aged 28-31 $11m a year over three or four years.[/QUOTE]

I agree of course, though I think Sanchez might be a little more because of his age.

#45 Shane Wahl

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 01:24 PM

Why don't we locate the possible extremes of what they could do and then work towards a reasonable center . . .

One extreme, they sign NO pitchers (except for going low-base on Baker) and instead chase down the MI route again . . . rolling out of ST with Diamond-Deduno-DeVries-Hendriks-Walters or Vasquez, and Baker, Gibson, and Hernandez are in AAA (or on the DL in Baker's case).

On the other possible extreme they sign Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, and let's say Ervin Santana for 2-3 years each and 8-12 million (low 2 years and $48 million, high 3 years $108 million).

Back to the other extreme: Everything stays the same except they sign either a Joe Saunders or an Erik Bedard on a one-year, $5 million deal.

Etc. Etc. Maybe this is more structured than just throwing out names.


I guess I'll play along . . . with myself.

On the other end, they sign Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum for 2-3 years each and 8-12 million each. Cost range: 2/32 -- 3/72. (this is the option I prefer most).

On the other end they sign both Joe Saunders and Erik Bedard. Cost 1/10. (this is terrifyingly perhaps the most likely scenario)

#46 Shane Wahl

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 01:51 PM

For naysayers on spending say $60 million over three years for Jackson and Marcum:

It's a risk, but so was trotting out Pavano-Baker-Liriano-Blackburn-Marquis this year. What was that cost? Hint: more than $20 million. And it sucked. Jackson and Marcum at same cost have the potential to be very, very good at 1-2 in the rotation. And Blackburn and Morneau contracts expire after 2013 (and together cost almost $20 million themselves!).

If the naysaying is merely based on the fact that the Twins are unlikely to do it, that's fine. They would be stupid not to do it if they want to compete in the next three years and have those two in the rotation for the 2015 season when hopefully the youth movement comes in force.

#47 Shane Wahl

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 02:30 PM

Adding those two pitchers, not trading anyone in the offseason, re-signing Baker for a few million + incentives, paying arb to everyone except for Casilla, and the payroll basically doesn't change from 2012.