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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 11-15

yunior severino stephen gonsalves nick gordon ben rortvedt ryan jeffers
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#81 drivlikejehu

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Posted 03 February 2019 - 03:21 AM

The Pirates got an MLB starting pitcher, MLB starting 3rd baseman, MLB reliever, and decent prospect for Cole. The alleged Twins price didn't compare to that at all, which really makes it hard to believe. 

 

In general, most posters dramatically, comically overrate the trade value of Twins prospects. The whole 'why don't the Twins trade away X, Y, Z for awesome MLB players' is an exercise totally divorced from reality. The players that fans want are not available in exchange for B-level prospects. Other MLB teams are not interested in giving away MLB assets for the likes of Brent Rooker. 

 

It is very rare to have a "surplus" of high-level prospects . . . certainly a trade would make sense in that scenario, but I can't think of a single time it applied to the Twins, and it doesn't now either. 

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#82 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 February 2019 - 10:50 AM

The Pirates got an MLB starting pitcher, MLB starting 3rd baseman, MLB reliever, and decent prospect for Cole. The alleged Twins price didn't compare to that at all, which really makes it hard to believe.

In general, most posters dramatically, comically overrate the trade value of Twins prospects. The whole 'why don't the Twins trade away X, Y, Z for awesome MLB players' is an exercise totally divorced from reality. The players that fans want are not available in exchange for B-level prospects. Other MLB teams are not interested in giving away MLB assets for the likes of Brent Rooker.

It is very rare to have a "surplus" of high-level prospects . . . certainly a trade would make sense in that scenario, but I can't think of a single time it applied to the Twins, and it doesn't now either.


Not one time in history it was appropriate to trade prospects for MLB players? Or did I not read that right?
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#83 drivlikejehu

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 09:24 AM

 

Not one time in history it was appropriate to trade prospects for MLB players? Or did I not read that right?

 

That is not what I meant at all. Trading prospects for MLB players frequently makes sense. But a lot of posters here articulate highly unrealistic strategies and scenarios; the main conceit being that, if the Twins were just smarter, they could convert low-value minor leaguers into quality major leaguers. 

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#84 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 10:47 AM

 

That is not what I meant at all. Trading prospects for MLB players frequently makes sense. But a lot of posters here articulate highly unrealistic strategies and scenarios; the main conceit being that, if the Twins were just smarter, they could convert low-value minor leaguers into quality major leaguers. 

In the Gerrit Cole example, the prospects mentioned were not "low-value" a year ago, and Pittsburgh was looking to shed salary. This was a specific situation.

 

It looks lopsided to you in hindsight, but a year ago, it looked a little more equal.

 

To your statement that the Twins fan's "main conceit ... is that if the Twins were just smarter, they could convert low-value minor leaguers into quality major leaguers" -- that is exactly what they did with Palacios and Odorizzi.

 

 

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#85 spycake

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 01:55 PM

 

In the Gerrit Cole example, the prospects mentioned were not "low-value" a year ago, and Pittsburgh was looking to shed salary. This was a specific situation.

I think they were lower value than the Astros guys a year ago, sure. The Astros gave up 3 guys who were very much MLB ready, plus another guy. Musgrove was a roughly league average MLB SP in 2018 when healthy (19 starts); Moran could be viewed as roughly average MLB regular too, depending on how your view his defense (metrics didn't like it). I'm not sure if Gordon or Gonsalves are even MLB ready at that level today, a year later. And I don't think Pittsburgh was trying to rebuild with this trade, but rather reload.

 

There's more to value than MLB readiness, of course, but it's not like Gonsalves and Gordon had notably higher ceilings than Musgrove and Moran either, even if the Pirates were thinking rebuild at the time.


#86 spycake

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 02:07 PM

 

To your statement that the Twins fan's "main conceit ... is that if the Twins were just smarter, they could convert low-value minor leaguers into quality major leaguers" -- that is exactly what they did with Palacios and Odorizzi.

There's a bit of a quality/upside difference between Odorizzi and Cole. By fWAR, remember Cole hit 5.5 fWAR in 2015 and was considered one of the best aces in the game; Odorizzi has yet to eclipse 3 fWAR in a season. Cole had twice topped 200 IP in a season too, even without the DH, compared to Odorizzi topping out at 187, his only season eclipsing 170.

 

I don't think anyone would argue the Twins can't emulate the Odorizzi trade from time to time -- TR's acquisition of Luis Castillo fit that mold, Bill Smith basically did it when he acquired Pavano, Rauch, and Cabrera, etc.

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#87 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 02:56 PM

 

Yes. I like Gonsalves and Gordon. I think very highly of Rortvedt and Severino. But I'm sick of this organizational philosophy of sitting on these prospects until their fire has been completely snuffed out. 

 

While I agree in philosophy, it requires a knowledge of the future to execute as well as a practical need (when Gonsalves and Gordon were at their peak, there was no amount of MLB quality that this team could get that would have helped them). Prospects don't develop the same, and even the best orgs make mistakes. There's a reason that baseball as a whole is moving in the direction of hoarding prospects. 

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#88 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 04:18 PM

 

I think they were lower value than the Astros guys a year ago, sure. The Astros gave up 3 guys who were very much MLB ready, plus another guy. Musgrove was a roughly league average MLB SP in 2018 when healthy (19 starts); Moran could be viewed as roughly average MLB regular too, depending on how your view his defense (metrics didn't like it). I'm not sure if Gordon or Gonsalves are even MLB ready at that level today, a year later. And I don't think Pittsburgh was trying to rebuild with this trade, but rather reload.

 

There's more to value than MLB readiness, of course, but it's not like Gonsalves and Gordon had notably higher ceilings than Musgrove and Moran either, even if the Pirates were thinking rebuild at the time.

I'm not disagreeing with you or the other poster that Pittsburgh got a better (ahem, significantly better) return from Houston than whatever Minnesota was thought to be offering or willing to offer. The conversation for Cole never really took off here, not sure why not, since he was obviously available.

 

 

I'd like to see the Twins play in this trade market, and frankly I'm surprised they haven't yet. Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, probably each of them could headline a trade for major league talent. The chances of all three making it are slim. 

 

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#89 Jim Hahn

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 04:42 PM

Clearly front offices disagree. It's almost impossible to get good prospects in trade right now. If anything, as a group, they are currently over valued, and smart teams should be trading therm for proven players.


I am not sure what you mean here. The Twins made a bunch trades at the trade deadline, most were prospects, are none good in your view? If you mean great prospects, what about the prospects the White Sox obtained last year? Or do you mean right now the winter of 2019?

#90 Jim Hahn

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 05:00 PM

I'm not disagreeing with you or the other poster that Pittsburgh got a better (ahem, significantly better) return from Houston than whatever Minnesota was thought to be offering or willing to offer. The conversation for Cole never really took off here, not sure why not, since he was obviously available.
 
 
I'd like to see the Twins play in this trade market, and frankly I'm surprised they haven't yet. Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, probably each of them could headline a trade for major league talent. The chances of all three making it are slim.


Those are right now at least, significantly different prospects, with significantly different perceived ceilings. One is considered by many as one of the top 20 best prospects in all of baseball. Larnach has only played a little at A ball, I am sure many think highly of him, but he is not now on or probably even close to any top 100 lists. Rooker isn't likely to headline any trade. With low defensive value and questionable on base skills, he will have to show more this year to headline any trade.

Kiriloff could probably headline a trade, but you better get somebody pretty darn good and for more than 2 years.
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#91 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 05:12 PM

 

Those are right now at least, significantly different prospects, with significantly different perceived ceilings. One is considered by many as one of the top 20 best prospects in all of baseball. Larnach has only played a little at A ball, I am sure many think highly of him, but he is not now on or probably even close to any top 100 lists. Rooker isn't likely to headline any trade. With low defensive value and questionable on base skills, he will have to show more this year to headline any trade.

Kiriloff could probably headline a trade, but you better get somebody pretty darn good and for more than 2 years.

That seems to be the consensus on those guys. Opinions will vary and change over time. 


#92 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 06:04 PM

 

I am not sure what you mean here. The Twins made a bunch trades at the trade deadline, most were prospects, are none good in your view? If you mean great prospects, what about the prospects the White Sox obtained last year? Or do you mean right now the winter of 2019?

 

None are Kiriloff, Lewis, Larnarch gop 10-50 types, not even close.

 

It is rare to get great prospects in trades right now. There just aren't that many trades occurring, as teams horde prospects (this isn't just a random opinion, there have been articles written about it).

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#93 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 06:06 PM

 

Those are right now at least, significantly different prospects, with significantly different perceived ceilings. One is considered by many as one of the top 20 best prospects in all of baseball. Larnach has only played a little at A ball, I am sure many think highly of him, but he is not now on or probably even close to any top 100 lists. Rooker isn't likely to headline any trade. With low defensive value and questionable on base skills, he will have to show more this year to headline any trade.

Kiriloff could probably headline a trade, but you better get somebody pretty darn good and for more than 2 years.

 

Lanarch is 92 on Fangraphs board, FWIW.

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#94 DocBauer

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 08:48 PM

So many people in this thread I want to quote.DocBauer, I view you as a solid sage on each thread that emits from TD.I'm glad someone brought up the Gerritt Cole proposition.I remember it as, Gordon, Tyler Jay, and Gonsalves.Should've, could've, and stop regretting.Geez he was good this year though...
Gonsalves haters, Stephen Gonsalves has eventually owned every level he's been at.I stress eventually.He doesn't ever come up and "wow" everyone.He is a product of his work ethic.He has figured out every level w/below stunning "stuff".I, for one, am excited for what Gonsalves has yet to show.He'll figure it out.
 
Gordon is 22.I'm over his "prospectusness".As is many of people w/any AAA player, unless they tear it up right away.Now it's just wait and see.Let's give this kid a chance.Dozier was the most recent guy to move from SS to 2B.That didn't happen overnight, but it worked out pretty well.
 
Jeffers comes off as more self-confident guy than Rortvedt.Rightfully so, if you like that type.I really like Rortvedt, after much criticism of his bat, but I like him as I like Drew Butera.Jeffers has the potential to be an A.J. Pierzynski, not as likeable, but likeable because he produces.


Thank you for the ego boost Jrod! Lol (pointless but interesting, one of my best friends is named Jarrod and we call him J-rod). But seriously, thank you for the compliment! No ego on my end, but if you are willing so gracious publicly, then I can graciously thank you publicly as well. Quick...how do I post a blush icon? LOL

On a serious note, I always try to maintain an even balance when it comes to the Twins, despite being a fervent fan since I was 5yo courtesy of my father. I've always believed it's OK to being an optimist, but jts also OK to call out your team as well.

I liked your comment about Gonsalves to "haters" and his eventual "owning" each level be has been at. I have often commented on this, and expressed candidly I expected him to struggle initially. The move to the ML is seldom easy. This kid is smart and has ALWAYS learned to adapt. I take his last couple of appearances with a grain of salt due to being the primary, and not the actual game starter. But it's also an indication, IMO, of a young rookie settling in.

I also agree on Gordon, but again, IMO, if kept, he might fit best as a utility player who does a lot of things well. And despite disappointment for a 1st round pick, there is real value in that. I am a HUGE believer in Polanco as well as Lewis. In the next season or so, I can easily see those two as a tremendous keystones combo. At the end of the day, what's wrong with Gordon being a really nice role piece for a ML roster?

I find your comments about Rortvedt vs Jeffers interesting. What have you seen or heard that makes you feel Jeffers is more confident? Really interested in your AJ comparison to Jeffers.

Despite being so young I hate to make comparisons, but I could easily see Rortvedt as a better hitting and more powerful version of Butera. Jeffers is obviously older, though their trek through the system may parallel, as Seth alluded to. Jeffers, probably, is the better bat with even more power. Reports are the Twins like him behind the plate and like his framing. This could be a very interesting "battle" over the next couple of years!
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#95 jrod23

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Posted 05 February 2019 - 07:39 PM

 

I also agree on Gordon, but again, IMO, if kept, he might fit best as a utility player who does a lot of things well. And despite disappointment for a 1st round pick, there is real value in that. I am a HUGE believer in Polanco as well as Lewis. In the next season or so, I can easily see those two as a tremendous keystones combo. At the end of the day, what's wrong with Gordon being a really nice role piece for a ML roster?

I find your comments about Rortvedt vs Jeffers interesting. What have you seen or heard that makes you feel Jeffers is more confident? Really interested in your AJ comparison to Jeffers.

Despite being so young I hate to make comparisons, but I could easily see Rortvedt as a better hitting and more powerful version of Butera. Jeffers is obviously older, though their trek through the system may parallel, as Seth alluded to. Jeffers, probably, is the better bat with even more power. Reports are the Twins like him behind the plate and like his framing. This could be a very interesting "battle" over the next couple of years!

 

I actually do agree with you on possibly trading Gordon.I just thought that ship had sailed due to his AAA slump.So I figured we'd just see what he has to prove now.

 

I definitely agree on Polanco.He and Lewis up the middle could be fantastic.They are both driven gamers.Lewis is a bit more of an extrovert, but both are genuinely kind people as well that I'd love my children to admire (aside from Polanco's PED mistake).

 

As for Rortvedt, I would retract a bit and agree that he will hit better than Butera.Rortvedt is a General on the field as well.I just get frustrated that a .300 catcher is such a diamond in the rough.Hence, my affinity for Jeffers.When I mentioned Jeffers and the AJ comparison, I only say it because of AJ's confidence. Word has it that Jeffers came into CR feeling he should've been there earlier, being very confident of his 2nd round draft position (even though he was projected as a 5th rounder), and again bringing up that he was on the greater side of .400 in E-Town.All of which, I can't argue with, just as I couldn't argue with AJ's confidence.I can attest however, that Jeffers was quite genuine with our younger one this past summer.He gave him a game ball, and gladly signed it after the game (he didn't have a great game).Jeffers definitely doesn't talk as much trash during a game as AJ would either.

 

Regardless, the more TD articles being posted, the more excited I get for this season.I'm excited to read about Enlow at the #9 spot.

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#96 caninatl04

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Posted 05 February 2019 - 08:43 PM

I know its not politic on this site to praise the front office, but what was the Twins' minor league talent ranking say four years ago? After just a few years, the Honorable Mentions List would be the envy (as a top 10) of more than a handful of Major League Teams. I especially like how the bare cupboard at catcher is now well stocked.

It is true they haven't fielded a 90-game winner in Target Field, but the smart way for a mid-market team to build is from the bottom up.

#97 birdwatcher

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Posted 06 February 2019 - 06:57 AM

 

In the Gerrit Cole example, the prospects mentioned were not "low-value" a year ago, and Pittsburgh was looking to shed salary. This was a specific situation.

 

It looks lopsided to you in hindsight, but a year ago, it looked a little more equal.

 

To your statement that the Twins fan's "main conceit ... is that if the Twins were just smarter, they could convert low-value minor leaguers into quality major leaguers" -- that is exactly what they did with Palacios and Odorizzi.

 

 

There's a valid middle ground in this question. We see plenty of examples of what drivlkejehu is trying to point out, which is unrealistic notions about the kind of MLB talent we could get in return for our prospects.

 

I agree that the Pittsburgh trade may not be a great gauge. Colin Moran as the centerpiece of that trade wasn't exactly a sign that teams are overpaying for MLB talent, as Feliz and Musgrove were uninspiring add-ons. In other words, I think an argument could be made that Cole got acquired on the cheap. 

 

But that doesn't mean the Twins somehow passed on an opportunity. We just don't know.

 

 




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