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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 11-15

yunior severino stephen gonsalves nick gordon ben rortvedt ryan jeffers
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#41 nater79a

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:26 PM

 

I'm assuming Luke Raley and Jhoan Duran aren't going to be listed in the top 10 but I would put both ahead of Ben Rortvedt.He is probably outside my top 20.

 

Luke Raley was listed in the "Honorable Mentions".

Jhoan Duran will be in the top-10.

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#42 h2oface

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:56 PM

 

I wouldn't know, but I'd sure plunk down a $5 bet that you, right now, are under-hyping him.

 

You're on. I don't know that I am under-hyping him to say I believe, according to his current status, that he has been universally over-hyped. I am just noticing his over-hype. I haven't even weighed in on my expectations, or predicted whether he will make it or not. That is because I have no opinion on that. I hope he becomes a star. I hope they all do. I would love to lose a pocket portrait of Lincoln. But to fall from 3rd on the team (wasn't he even higher at one point?) to 12th, and out of the national top 100's as well, is not a convincing counterpoint to the over-hype claim. At some point, his family pedigree and tools have to convert to a player that can't be kept out of the show. It is nothing, however, that "The Man" can't turn around with a season and performance that makes it impossible not to play him in the show, and that would be very welcome. I don't know what the criteria of success would be for a Number 1 draft pick (number 5 overall) for him to have reached and achieved a career that matches his "hype". Seems it would be more than just making it to the show. It would be to become a very good everyday MLB position player (not just a utility guy), too, wouldn't it?

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#43 Tomj14

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 03:45 PM

 

What would they have gotten for Rogers? Polanco? Kepler? So that's an utterly silly claim. I think you're going to be dead wrong about a dozen times real quick-like.

What would they have gotten for Buxton, Romero, Rosario, Sano, Stewart, Meyer, Jay and Gordon?

We can play that game all day.

There is no arguing trading from excess, but there really is no such thing of excess prospects. Remember when Lewis, Gordon and Javier were excessive.

 

 

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#44 markos

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:44 PM

 

You're on. I don't know that I am under-hyping him to say I believe, according to his current status, that he has been universally over-hyped. I am just noticing his over-hype. I haven't even weighed in on my expectations, or predicted whether he will make it or not. That is because I have no opinion on that. I hope he becomes a star. I hope they all do. I would love to lose a pocket portrait of Lincoln. But to fall from 3rd on the team (wasn't he even higher at one point?) to 12th, and out of the national top 100's as well, is not a convincing counterpoint to the over-hype claim. At some point, his family pedigree and tools have to convert to a player that can't be kept out of the show. It is nothing, however, that "The Man" can't turn around with a season and performance that makes it impossible not to play him in the show, and that would be very welcome. I don't know what the criteria of success would be for a Number 1 draft pick (number 5 overall) for him to have reached and achieved a career that matches his "hype". Seems it would be more than just making it to the show. It would be to become a very good everyday MLB position player (not just a utility guy), too, wouldn't it?

There is a lot of work that has been posted at Fangraphs and other websites about the expected value for both draft picks and prospect rankings. 

 

Draft picks:

A model by Jeff Zimmerman predicts that the #5 overall pick on average produces ~6 WAR over the first 6 years of the players' careers.

Looking at the 25 #5 picks prior to Gordon, only 11 achieved > 1 WAR for their career.

 

Prospect Ranking:

Gordon has primarily been in the 50-100 range of prospect list. That lines up pretty close with his draft capital. Research by Craig Edwards (and others) suggests that players in that range, on average, produce ~6 WAR over their first 7 years of team control. Further, ~50% bust (less than 1 WAR), and only 10% turn into stars (>3 WAR per year).

 

Anyway, if we just look at what history would predict Gordon should produce at any point in his profession career (based on his draft position and prospect rankings), the expected value isn't that high. I think getting one or more average or better seasons from him would be a huge win in all honesty, and greatly exceed any hype he has had in the past.

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#45 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:53 PM

Clearly front offices disagree. It's almost impossible to get good prospects in trade right now. If anything, as a group, they are currently over valued, and smart teams should be trading therm for proven players.
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#46 gagu

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:43 PM

 

I would not be excited about his ST invite.With all the arms needing work, we always have extra catchers around - lots of them.I think some marginal catchers have made a career of ST catching.  

 

Here is an example from 2016

Catchers (5)
Name Pos 2016 Age 
Juan Centeno C 26 MLB
Mitch Garver C/1B 25 A+
Carlos Paulino C 26 AAA
Alex Swim C/1B/OF 25 A+
Stuart Turner C 24 AA

On the other hand, the youngest player on your list is Stuart Turner at 24. Rortvedt is just 21. I see the ST invite as a definite positive.

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#47 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:44 PM

 

I think you're selling Gonsalves too short if you think he was only worth a Blake Parker while on national publication top 100 lists. Good, established MLB players are traded for top 100 prospects all the time.

 

 

I don't know, Van, Gonzo was what, #96 one year? So maybe he nets slightly better, like someone's Addison Reed from 2017? Teams give up a prospect like this at the deadline in exchange for a good, established relief pitcher, don't they? These guys don't get you a decent rotation piece or a 2 WAR position player with control benefits.

 

It took TWO premier prospects to land Pressly. Maciel started out the previous year as Houston's #5 prospect, which is what Gonzo is to the Twins now. And they had to add Alcala, who might just end up being as good as Pressly or better in his own right.

 

I think I want my club to be adding prospects at the deadline, not the other way around. Off-season, trade prospects who are redundant, sure.


#48 gagu

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:53 PM

 

I'm assuming Luke Raley and Jhoan Duran aren't going to be listed in the top 10 but I would put both ahead of Ben Rortvedt.He is probably outside my top 20.

Unless there is a surprise prospect out there, Duran will be in the top 10 along with Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach, Thorpe, Javier, Rooker, Enlow, and Baddoo. I would rank them in that order, with Duran between Enlow and Baddoo. We'll find that out tomorrow. Raley was listed as an honorable mention.

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#49 gunnarthor

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:17 PM

It's always too early to give up on a prospect. If you remember, we had a young prospect back in the day that was tearing up the lower minor leagues and even had a decent half season at AA. But when he played the next year at AA he missed a large chunk of time and hit .237/.277/.396. He had his pop but his BB/K numbers went to hell. The next year, the 23 year old started in AAA but he was even worse - .242/.280/.379. A lot of posters had given up on him. But Eddie Rosario turned out ok.

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#50 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:30 PM

 

I don't know, Van, Gonzo was what, #96 one year? So maybe he nets slightly better, like someone's Addison Reed from 2017? Teams give up a prospect like this at the deadline in exchange for a good, established relief pitcher, don't they? These guys don't get you a decent rotation piece or a 2 WAR position player with control benefits.

 

It took TWO premier prospects to land Pressly. Maciel started out the previous year as Houston's #5 prospect, which is what Gonzo is to the Twins now. And they had to add Alcala, who might just end up being as good as Pressly or better in his own right.

 

I think I want my club to be adding prospects at the deadline, not the other way around. Off-season, trade prospects who are redundant, sure.

Not me. For once in my lifetime I'd like my team, the Twins, to be buyers at the trade deadline because we are shooting for a higher goal than dumping vets to add prospects. This mid-July I'd like to see us trade for Arenado for instance, headlined by Graterol and Rooker and whoever else it takes. Then see us immediately sign Nolan to a 7/245 mil deal. And in late Oct be celebrating the WS due in large part to this deal. Isn't that a big reason for having a farm?

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#51 h2oface

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:14 PM

 

On the other hand, the youngest player on your list is Stuart Turner at 24. Rortvedt is just 21. I see the ST invite as a definite positive.

 

Teams need and excessive amount of catchers in spring training. Many catchers get invited. Many, many. Still, it is good that he is one of them, for sure. It can't hurt, unless he just totally stinks it up while he is there.

Edited by h2oface, 01 February 2019 - 07:17 PM.


#52 Aerodeliria

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:46 PM

Thanks for your hard work. I have enjoyed reading this series.
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#53 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:04 PM

Not me. For once in my lifetime I'd like my team, the Twins, to be buyers at the trade deadline because we are shooting for a higher goal than dumping vets to add prospects. This mid-July I'd like to see us trade for Arenado for instance, headlined by Graterol and Rooker and whoever else it takes. Then see us immediately sign Nolan to a 7/245 mil deal. And in late Oct be celebrating the WS due in large part to this deal. Isn't that a big reason for having a farm?


The Rockies won 91 games last year. It's pretty difficult to imagine them being sellers at the deadline.
And if they are, you aren't getting an MVP caliber player like Arenado without including Lewis or Kirilloff.
And finally, I can't possibly see him signing an extension if he's 2 months from free agency. Maybe there are more examples than I think, but I can't imagine that's ever happened, with a premiere player.

#54 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:40 PM

 

The Rockies won 91 games last year. It's pretty difficult to imagine them being sellers at the deadline.
And if they are, you aren't getting an MVP caliber player like Arenado without including Lewis or Kirilloff.
And finally, I can't possibly see him signing an extension if he's 2 months from free agency. Maybe there are more examples than I think, but I can't imagine that's ever happened, with a premiere player.

Point is its getting about time to stop looking at ourselves as sellers every year. As far as what it takes to snag a player like Arenado in July I'm not so sure the price is as high as you think. This season the LAD got an expiring Machado for 1 top 100 prospect and 4 wild cards. Hats off to the LAD, they used their farm for what its intended for.

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#55 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:02 PM

 

Seth is giving up on Rortvedt!

 

:P

 

I really like Ben, and I think he took strong sides forward in 2018. 

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#56 Loosey

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:09 PM

If Rortvedt ends up being a major league catcher who is a rock behind the plate and hits .240 with a .700 OPS I think the Twins have a their next 10 years of catcher.

 

That is what I expect out of him as a Major Leaguer.

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#57 Seth Stohs

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:10 PM

 

On the other hand, the youngest player on your list is Stuart Turner at 24. Rortvedt is just 21. I see the ST invite as a definite positive.

 

It's simply the difference between being drafted out of high school and being drafted out of college. Turner, Swim, Garver were all college guys. Rortvedt and Brian Navarreto, who is going to big league camp for the 2nd time, were high school picks. 

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#58 nater79a

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:58 PM

 

I don't know, Van, Gonzo was what, #96 one year? So maybe he nets slightly better, like someone's Addison Reed from 2017? Teams give up a prospect like this at the deadline in exchange for a good, established relief pitcher, don't they? These guys don't get you a decent rotation piece or a 2 WAR position player with control benefits.

 

It took TWO premier prospects to land Pressly. Maciel started out the previous year as Houston's #5 prospect, which is what Gonzo is to the Twins now. And they had to add Alcala, who might just end up being as good as Pressly or better in his own right.

 

I think I want my club to be adding prospects at the deadline, not the other way around. Off-season, trade prospects who are redundant, sure.

 

Think you meant Gilberto Celestino and not Maciel.  

Celestino came over in the deal for Pressly. 

Maciel in the Eduardo Escobar trade with the D-Backs.

 

 

Your point still stands - just wanted to correct the return.

 

Edited by nater79a, 01 February 2019 - 11:59 PM.

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#59 beckmt

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 09:30 AM

At the current time Pressly is probably among the top 15 relievers in baseball as Houston unlocked his talent.Your point of trading prospects may be correct if your origanization cannot unlock the top end talent, and Twins have not been able to do that among pitchers for a long, long, time.Alston seems to have started some process last year and I hope that Wes Johnson can turn these prospects into very good pitching.That will go a long way toward the sustainable process the new FO is hypeing. 

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#60 beckmt

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 09:32 AM

Gonsalves for me will have to harness everything he has just to be a #4, #5 starter in the major leagues.That is a tough path.I wouldrank him more toward where you have Stewart now.On the other hand some other pitchers should be higher, but do not know if you rank on status plus closeness to the major leagues or just pure upside.




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