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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 11-15

yunior severino stephen gonsalves nick gordon ben rortvedt ryan jeffers
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#21 Jim Hahn

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 10:58 AM

I have lost some confidence in Gordon, but to say this is a make or break year is off. He's 22. In AAA.
Fangraphs has reasonable confidence in Jeffers staying a catcher. I too hope they are aggressive with both catchers.


It is indeed far too early to give up on Gordon. His AA numbers last year were good. I have no idea what the bad performance at AAA was caused by. Still development is rarely linear. I can remember Denard Span dropping way down on prospect lists because of his performance in the high minors.

Gordon seems to be a high character guys, with plenty of talent and pretty well developed skills. I expect to see him succeeding in the majors, soon.

I 2nd the thoughts on Rortvedt as well. I expect the hitting to get better and his catching skills are well respected. A long major league career seems likely.
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#22 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:01 AM

 

Situations like this with Gordon and Gonsalves is exactly why I'm in favor of trading prospects for established MLB talent 9 times out of 10. Minor leaguers have a peak value prior to reaching the majors. Gordon and Gonsalves' peak was 2 years ago when they were on top 100 prospect lists. IMO Kirilloff is at his peak right now.

Yes. I like Gonsalves and Gordon. I think very highly of Rortvedt and Severino. But I'm sick of this organizational philosophy of sitting on these prospects until their fire has been completely snuffed out. What's worse to me is year after year we are told how good our prospects are. Yet year after year we are signing so-so FA's to play at Target. This OD could see as many as 8 first year FA's suiting up again. I'm tired of being sold the hope of our farm system and it not being utilized.

 

End of rant. Thanks all for the rankings. It's great reads.

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#23 Tomj14

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:10 AM

 


But even with his surprising success, and even if one could somehow ascertain his peak minor league value, what kind of MLB talent do you think he fetches? Probably a Blake Parker. Is it worth giving up on a gamble like Gonsalves for that?

I don't think anybody has or is saying trade Gonzo for a mid tier relief pitcher, they are saying or were saying package him and a few other prospects for a Major League talent.

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#24 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:14 AM

 

I agree this isn't the make or break year, because there isn't really anybody pushing him to the bench in AAA, but he if hits under .200 for another 40 game stretch, he should be really worried about 2020, because he will be the older guy pushed a side for the next prospect.

 

To me, the consideration about moving a minor league asset has to be about him becoming redundant, about having a better alternative at the same stage of development. It can't be about timing his trade value and then timing his trade, because you'll often get meager returns at the moment of opportunity, whether the guy flames out or becomes a star. 

 

Buyers overpay at the trade deadline most of the time, I think.

 

If I'm GM, I'll dangle Gordon or Rooker because I have another better alternative close to the majors. I don't let Gonsalves go. Not until I have a couple other better alternatives than him at the cusp in AAA. Maybe they do though.

 

If Rooker reaches "peak value" early this year, I'd much prefer to deal Austin or Cron for prospects at the deadline than to deal Rooker for two months of someone's Fernando Rodney.

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#25 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:21 AM

 

This list has some disappointments.Ryan Jeffers has passed Rortvedt and I expect that to become an even greater separation this year.Gordon really flatlined and we have been counting on him.It is a shame to see him fall this far and it is deserved, not just the good players in front of him.Two years ago I expected him to be a Twin this season, now I wonder if he can be a major leaguer.The same with Gonsalves.I really hoped he would break through last year.  

 

For three of the players I call this the disappointing section of the rankings. 

 

 

Fans over-hyped Gonsalves. It's doubtful he's viewed as a disappointment by the organization but rather as a step up from typical for the #110 selection. Gordon was over-hyped by the fans, and now he's probably under-hyped. It's too early for the Twins to conclude enough about Rortvedt, let alone us as fans. There's a ways to go for him, and for Jeffers too. Did we think all that much of Garver at the same stage? I honestly an't remember.

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:26 AM

Gordon was a top 75 or higher prospect on several lists. I don't think this is about fans......not even a little.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#27 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:31 AM

 

I don't think anybody has or is saying trade Gonzo for a mid tier relief pitcher, they are saying or were saying package him and a few other prospects for a Major League talent.

 

 

Even a worse idea most of the time. Increase your odds of giving up one or more major league talents, and again, most likely for a fairly marginal incremental improvement. 

 

I'm not saying you don't do it. You do. But trade from surplus, not from areas of future need. 

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#28 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:32 AM

 

Gordon was a top 75 or higher prospect on several lists. I don't think this is about fans......not even a little.

 

 

Precisely the point. The pros like him better than a lot of us.


#29 Thrylos

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:39 AM

Rortvedt had a breakthrough season.I think that his overall numbers in Fort Myers do not indicate how good he was:

 

Eventhough he hit lefties and righties equally well at Cedar Rapids (.708 OPS against LHP and .711 OPS against RHP) at Fort Myers he hit .269/.349/.425 vs RHP (pretty exceptional at that league for a catcher) and .184/.295/.184 against LHP.Better league, tougher lefties.He will adjust he is just 21 years old.Will probably need another part season at Fort Myers at least to get better against lefties before he moves up.

Edited by Thrylos, 01 February 2019 - 11:40 AM.

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#30 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:42 AM

Honestly, I think Gonzo holds more value to the team as trade bait rather than as a player.

#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:43 AM

 

Precisely the point. The pros like him better than a lot of us.

 

didn't you say : Gordon was over-hyped by the fans

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#32 JLease

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:03 PM

 

Our individual rankings, if anyone is interested:

 

Gonsalves - Seth (10), Nick (10), Tom (9), Cody (12)

Gordon - Seth (12), Nick (9), Tom (8), Cody (13)

Jeffers - Seth (14), Nick (14), Tom (18), Cody (9)

Rortvedt - Seth (24), Nick (13), Tom (12), Cody (15)

Severino - Seth (15), Nick (19), Tom (14), Cody (17)

 

Seth is giving up on Rortvedt!

 

:P

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#33 Tomj14

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:06 PM

 

Even a worse idea most of the time. Increase your odds of giving up one or more major league talents, and again, most likely for a fairly marginal incremental improvement. 

 

I'm not saying you don't do it. You do. But trade from surplus, not from areas of future need. 

The Twins could have traded just about every prospect for the last 6 or so years and not really missed out on anybody but Berrios. Yes, there are major league players and some pretty good ones, and some we are still hoping (fingers crossed) figure it out.

But prospects are just that until they prove otherwise.

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#34 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:08 PM

I think there's a massive difference between peak fan hype and peak value, Vanimal, and I think we tend to conflate the two things without really having a very solid idea about how much real trade value these prospects have.

Think of it this way: Gonsalves was picked after 109 other guys were selected. You're right in saying 9 times out of 10 these players picked from. say #40 and after flame out, and that's the case in 2013, where maybe 5 of the 70 players selected in front of Gonsalves look to be amounting to anything.

But even with his surprising success, and even if one could somehow ascertain his peak minor league value, what kind of MLB talent do you think he fetches? Probably a Blake Parker. Is it worth giving up on a gamble like Gonsalves for that?


I think you're selling Gonsalves too short if you think he was only worth a Blake Parker while on national publication top 100 lists. Good, established MLB players are traded for top 100 prospects all the time.

#35 gunnarthor

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:11 PM

I really like Rortvedt. He was extremely young for his league and position. In fact, he was the youngest catcher in A+ ball last year with that many at-bats. The Twins have been pushing him a lot since they drafted him. He could be a 21 year old catcher in AA.

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#36 jkcarew

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:50 PM

Interesting to see the discrepancy of how Rortvedt is viewed...both among the staff and the posters.

 

Probably has to do with how his big offensive improvement from 2018 is interpreted. Can he build on it? How much?. He was drafted young, small and athletic (by catcher standards), and very raw out of a northern climate. Taken 56 overall in the 2nd round. Given his background, I'd say his bat is right about where we could reasonably expect it to be (he's actually 'still' a couple months younger than Jeffers)...right on track to being 'decent'. That would go a long way to usefulness at the major-league level, given he swings it left-handed and given his defensive prowess. I remain a believer.

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#37 h2oface

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:06 PM

 

Gordon was a top 75 or higher prospect on several lists. I don't think this is about fans......not even a little.

 

Gordon has been over-hyped by fans, list makers, Twins FO, and himself. He has been a consensus equal opportunity over-hype. He's the man.

Edited by h2oface, 01 February 2019 - 02:10 PM.

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#38 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:10 PM

 

The Twins could have traded just about every prospect for the last 6 or so years and not really missed out on anybody but Berrios. Yes, there are major league players and some pretty good ones, and some we are still hoping (fingers crossed) figure it out.

But prospects are just that until they prove otherwise.

 

 

What would they have gotten for Rogers? Polanco? Kepler? So that's an utterly silly claim. I think you're going to be dead wrong about a dozen times real quick-like.

 

And sorry, I think some commenters become delusional on BOTH sides of an argument to trade a prospect or not. I used Gordon as an example of how preposterous it is for any of us to 1) think we can really be at all certain about a prospect's ceiling when he's 21 and getting his feet wet at AA, or to 2) conclude that we have a good idea about what kind of MLB talent a prospect like Gordon can attract. 

 

It's hard enough for the pros to gauge this. 

 

But my point is simply this: when you trade a big-time prospect with Gordon's clear athletic talents, you're doing so knowing there can be a wide variance of future outcomes regarding his skill development. Even when his minor league performance has gone from super encouraging to abysmal, like Gordon's has, there is a much narrower variance in his trade value. This risk should be acknowledged and managed, IMO. The way I would manage it is to trade from positional surplus so that when you DO lose on a trade it hurts you less because you have another option, and to avoid trades involving multiple high-profile prospects so as to decrease your chances of giving up the next Tatis Jr. for the next James Shields. That's all I'm saying.

 

Edited by birdwatcher, 01 February 2019 - 02:23 PM.

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#39 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:21 PM

 

Gordon has been over-hyped by fans, list makers, Twins FO, and himself. He has been a consensus equal opportunity over-hype. He's the man.

 

 

I wouldn't know, but I'd sure plunk down a $5 bet that you, right now, are under-hyping him.

Edited by birdwatcher, 01 February 2019 - 02:21 PM.

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#40 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:21 PM

 

Gordon has been over-hyped by fans, list makers, Twins FO, and himself. He has been a consensus equal opportunity over-hype. He's the man.

May 22, 2018. I believe this is going to be remembered in the end as when Nick Gordon turned his career around. Everything that I have heard from Nick suggests that he now knows the hard work he will need to put in to fulfill the hype. 

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