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Article: There’s Hope for a Martin Perez Bounce Back

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#21 Thrylos

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:21 AM

 

 

. For his career, Perez has struck out a mere 13.9% of opposing batters.

 

True.However one needs to get a bit more granular with that.He has struck out 20.7% with his changeup and 21.8% with his slider (career numbers).His sinker induces 60.4% ground ball rate.

 

Those are not bad numbers, esp. for a back of the rotation guy.

 

His problem is his four seamer and curve that are pretty awful.Last season opponents hit .422 off his four seamer (vs. 286 off his sinker) and 37.5% of the flyballs off his curve were home runs (that moved his overall to 18.2%).Getting rid of those pitches that he threw 25% of the time will go a long way towards improvement. 

 

If one can see that opportunity by simply looking at publicly available numbers, I am sure that the Twins saw even more, because they have more data.

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:22 AM

 

True.However one needs to get a bit more granular with that.He has struck out 20.7% with his changeup and 21.8% with his slider (career numbers).His sinker induces 60.4% ground ball rate.

 

Those are not bad numbers, esp. for a back of the rotation guy.

 

His problem is his four seamer and curve that are pretty awful.Last season opponents hit .422 off his four seamer (vs. 286 off his sinker) and 37.5% of the flyballs off his curve were home runs (that moved his overall to 18.2%).Getting rid of those pitches that he threw 25% of the time will go a long way towards improvement. 

 

If one can see that opportunity by simply looking at publicly available numbers, I am sure that the Twins saw even more, because they have more data.

 

And yet TX, who has no pitching, moved him to RP, and then let him go. I'm sure TX has plenty of data too.

 

Hoping and wishcasting is fine, but let's not pretend that he's likely to become Arrieta. That's super rare.

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#23 gman

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 11:45 AM

Reminds me of Tommy Milone. Hopefully if his first 20 starts are good we will trade him.

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#24 spycake

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:10 PM

 

They have a plethora of guys in AAA and AA who need a look, because they have one guy under contract past this year. Perez means they will gather less information, all for the upside of a good number five.

Agreed that this team should be adding near the top of the rotation, rather than likely at the bottom.

 

But I am glad that they're not penciling in any of those AA/AAA pitchers for the opening day rotation. Really only Romero and Mejia interest me right now, and Romero is apparently ticketed for the pen and Mejia's 2018 season ended rather ominously with concerns around his elbow...

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#25 ahart10

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:46 PM

The more I think about this I’m seeing Perez and Mejia battle out for the fifth spot and the loser opening for Odor and Pineda.
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#26 KirbyDome89

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:59 PM

 

Something tells me that they're concerned about Mejia's durability, they're concerned about Gonsaves making the final adjustments to be reliable making the final jump, they're concerned about Thorpe's readiness, and concerned about Littell's stuff perhaps. Wells and Graterol are new to AA. Romero is a better bullpen piece maybe?

 

We'll see. Maybe the Perez move isn't as stupid as we think it is.

I'm in total agreement that the pitching depth has serious questions, but isn't that more of an indictment of the Perez signing rather than a justification for it?

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#27 Thrylos

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:11 PM

 

Hoping and wishcasting is fine, but let's not pretend that he's likely to become Arrieta. That's super rare.

 

"Likely" is miles apart from "maybe", which what seems to be the Twins' front office position and invested $4M to find out.

 

If not, he will "likely" be better than Gonsalves or Duke/Belisle who will be the 2018 players he will be replacing, if he does not "become Arrieta".And he has a higher probability of "becoming Arrieta" than Gonsalves does.

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#28 adjacent

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 03:23 PM

What are they going to do with Mejia? I believe he is out of options.


#29 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 03:24 PM

 

Bounce back to what?

Exactly. 1) His bounce is limited based on every indicator in his past. I just think this was a poor move on part of the FO for several reasons already spelled out by other commentators in this thread. But mainly 2) he keeps the young arms down on the farm, when some young pitchers need to be getting acclimated to the major leagues and getting their "yips" out.

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#30 Doomtints

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:27 PM

They cut De Jong for this? Really?

 

Building for the future right there. Let's just cut all the 24 year olds.

 

Cue the Mariners picking him back up in 3... 2...

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#31 Doomtints

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:32 PM

Also,

 

A 'bounce-back' for this dude is getting back to 100 ERA+. 

 

Hold onto your seats!

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#32 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:06 PM

I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys.

They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.
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#33 yarnivek1972

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:30 PM

How many fifth starters do the Twins need?Resigning Odorizzi was justified by many on this board by saying he’s a great fifth starter.

The Twins have a decent number 2 and 3 (assuming Gibson and Berrios stay healthy AND maintain or improve on 2018). If the Twins are really expecting Pineda to be a major contributor, I think they are in for disapointment. Let’s keep in mind the last three seasons he actually pitched he posted an ERA + of about 95. That’s not exactly moving the needle. So in Pineda, Perez and Odorizzi they have 3 4/5 starters, if things go well.

See the problem? There’s a hole at the top of the rotation.
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#34 Danchat

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:50 PM

 

What are they going to do with Mejia? I believe he is out of options.

Sounds like he'll get a chance at the rotation, but he'll likely end up in the bullpen. If they decide to do anything with openers, he'll probably be a primary pitcher.

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#35 killertwinfan

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Posted 03 February 2019 - 07:14 AM

Totally agree.You won't know what this guy is going to do until he pitches in the regular season.And, btw, we just dfa'd a similar pitcher that would get base pay.So why did we let Zach Duke go?

So, his expected BA against should really be in the. 280 range? And his ERA should be in the 4.60 area? Yea, I'd take that for $3.5M instead of letting my talented arms audition, learn and grow. I'm sorry, I still don't get this move at all.

 


#36 Doctor Wu

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 08:43 AM

 

I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys.

They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.

I like the signing too. And yes, still waiting for either a better quality starter to solidify the rotation, and/or a strong new arm in the bullpen. The wait continues.


#37 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 09:29 AM

 

I'm in total agreement that the pitching depth has serious questions, but isn't that more of an indictment of the Perez signing rather than a justification for it?

 

How so?

 

An indictment of the state of things? Or an indictment of the decision to add an option?

 

I personally don't have an opinion about the signing, other than that I find it perplexing on the surface.

Edited by birdwatcher, 04 February 2019 - 09:33 AM.


#38 spycake

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 09:41 AM

How so?

An indictment of the state of things? Or an indictment of the decision to add an option?


I read it as, if the pitching depth is bad enough to justify adding Perez, it's probably bad enough to justify doing something more than simply adding Perez.
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#39 howieramone2

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 12:10 PM

Very well written article. Mejia gave us all of 25 innings last season, and I'm not convinced he's healthy. Perez's and Mejia's ceilings are virtually identical and Perez has a higher floor(unlikely Mejia puts in 7-8 years). This signing gives us flexibility at a very reasonable price. If Mejia, Gonsalves, Stewart,Thorpe or Littell become a world beater, we can move Perez to the pen or DFA him. Note, when moved to the pen, Perez's velocity spikes.

Edited by howieramone2, 04 February 2019 - 12:12 PM.


#40 Doomtints

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 12:27 PM

The Twins are the only team I know of that perpetually signs nothing but #5s. It's not just that they won't sign aces, they won't even sign #3s (apart from Ervin Santana, who worked out very well and played as a #1/#2 for most of his time in MN).

 

For every #5 that turns into a 1-year wonder (Pavano, Hughes), there are half a dozen complete flops, and those 1-year wonders end up causing headaches when the Twins lock them up for more years before they crash back down to earth.......

 

Have to give it to the fans who stay optimistic about this stuff, but come on. If the Twins are good this year it won't be because of Martin Perez.

 

(And Mejia deserves a chance, damnit, don't Kennys Vargas this guy.)

Edited by Doomtints, 04 February 2019 - 12:49 PM.

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