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Keith Law Top 100 - no love for Graterol

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#41 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:09 PM

 

but surprised that he see's Romero as a solid starter.I thought a fair number of scouts saw Romero as reliever a long time ago.

 

Will be interesting to see if his concerns about Brusdar come to fruition.

 

I like how he looks at things just hoping for more from the Twins Prospects.Always fun to see what he has to say.

Romero developed a changeup, which is what Brus has been working on the past year.But I'd honestly say two years ago, both would be destined for the backend of the pen; things look much more promising when you can have three average or plus pitches

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#42 SydneyTwinsFan

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 04:30 PM

Interesting to see that Law rates the Twins farm system as #4 overall - "sneaky good" as he describes it.

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#43 markos

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 05:02 PM

 

If memory serves, you were a Turner guy? Kudos if so.

Yeah Turner probably got hurt by prospect fatigue, where as Gordon got bumped by lineage excitement.

If memory serves me correctly (certainly not a sure bet...), there were a confluence of minor issues with Turner.

First, there were questions about his power projection. Remember, this was before the juiced-ball/statcast/launch-angle revolution of the last few years completely upended traditional expectations for player power development. The idea that Turner would end up showing 20hr/season power in the big leagues (and have a higher ISO in the majors than he managed in college) seemed like the absolute high end of his power projection at the time. But now we basically have to just take it in stride - almost everyone has 20hr/season power now.

Second, not everyone was convinced he would stay at shortstop due to arm strength issues.

Third, I think he had some lingering injury issues his junior year before drafted. 

 

Anyway, I think it was less prospect fatigue as much as concerns that he would be more like Billy Hamilton than he ultimately ended up.

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#44 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 05:14 PM

 

Interesting to see that Law rates the Twins farm system as #4 overall - "sneaky good" as he describes it.

 

 

The guy just hates the Twins.

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#45 nicksaviking

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 05:14 PM

I thought the knock on Turner was his swing was too long, his BABIP was too high and people thought his hit tool might come up too short to get on base enough to use his speed.

Anyway, his weaknesses were clearly over stated which I’d think was due to over analysis since he was great in college when he wasn’t injured. I know I bit on the negative reviews; I also wanted the shiny, new, unknown Gordon.

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#46 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 08:22 PM

I thought the knock on Turner was his swing was too long, his BABIP was too high and people thought his hit tool might come up too short to get on base enough to use his speed.

Anyway, his weaknesses were clearly over stated which I’d think was due to over analysis since he was great in college when he wasn’t injured. I know I bit in the negative reviews; I also wanted the shiny, new, unknown Gordon.


I know very little about how the top picks of the draft are figured out. But a strategy that seems to work is to find guys that are considered #1 picks and then lost their luster with a bad spring or an injury before the draft. Trea Turner, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Adrian Peterson types. (If you squint, Kyle Gibson could fit that description.)
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#47 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 08:27 PM

I know very little about how the top picks of the draft are figured out. But a strategy that seems to work is to find guys that are considered #1 picks and then lost their luster with a bad spring or an injury before the draft. Trea Turner, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Adrian Peterson types. (If you squint, Kyle Gibson could fit that description.)


Good thing the Twins didn't take JJ Schwarz (remember him? Didn't think so) over Royce Lewis.
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#48 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 08:29 PM

Good thing the Twins didn't take JJ Schwarz (remember him? Didn't think so) over Royce Lewis.


Touché! He was definitely billed as a #1 guy. (And Royce Lewis never was).
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#49 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 08:36 PM

Good thing the Twins didn't take JJ Schwarz (remember him? Didn't think so) over Royce Lewis.


JJ didn't lose his luster, he fell off a cliff. He's a good lesson to anyone thinking about not taking the money when it is there....
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#50 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 February 2019 - 09:39 AM

 

If memory serves me correctly (certainly not a sure bet...), there were a confluence of minor issues with Turner.

First, there were questions about his power projection. Remember, this was before the juiced-ball/statcast/launch-angle revolution of the last few years completely upended traditional expectations for player power development. The idea that Turner would end up showing 20hr/season power in the big leagues (and have a higher ISO in the majors than he managed in college) seemed like the absolute high end of his power projection at the time. But now we basically have to just take it in stride - almost everyone has 20hr/season power now.

Second, not everyone was convinced he would stay at shortstop due to arm strength issues.

Third, I think he had some lingering injury issues his junior year before drafted. 

 

Anyway, I think it was less prospect fatigue as much as concerns that he would be more like Billy Hamilton than he ultimately ended up.

 

This was a really big deal... I know personally his lack of power had me going meh (pretty sure I wanted pitching too)... but that was the big downside to Turner. Hindsight is definitely 20/20... and like everyone else, I'd love a do-over at this point..

 

That said, I wouldn't write Gordon off just yet. It will be interesting to see if things change due to changes in the team's strength/conditioning guys. 

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#51 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 February 2019 - 12:36 PM

back to the original post...

 

But I'm somewhat curious about Law's lack of love to Graterol. He's always been an upside guy, and you cannot really argue with Graterol's celing right now. Even though Law didn't care for Berrios, he still found himself in Law's top 100....

 

Legitimately wondering why.

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#52 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 05 February 2019 - 12:55 PM

I know very little about how the top picks of the draft are figured out. But a strategy that seems to work is to find guys that are considered #1 picks and then lost their luster with a bad spring or an injury before the draft. Trea Turner, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Adrian Peterson types. (If you squint, Kyle Gibson could fit that description.)


And I will note that the Twins pick this year (12 or 13?) is a pretty good spot to grab someone who fits this description, that doesn’t seem like a sure bet, but has lots of upside.
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#53 spycake

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Posted 05 February 2019 - 03:10 PM

 

back to the original post...

 

But I'm somewhat curious about Law's lack of love to Graterol. He's always been an upside guy, and you cannot really argue with Graterol's celing right now. Even though Law didn't care for Berrios, he still found himself in Law's top 100....

 

Legitimately wondering why.

Graterol is just outside of Law's top 100. There's not really an appreciable difference between being ranked 90 and 108. Could just be a few extra prospects he likes more around the league, could be that Graterol has already undergone Tommy John and Berrios hadn't, etc.

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