I don't get that at all. Vlad, as a 19 year old, struck out 38 times and walked 37 across AA/AAA. He actually walked more in AAA than he struck out. He's a generational talent. I would bet a huge amount of money that he'll be a hall of famer.
Tatis spent the entire season in AA where he struck out 109 times and only walked 33 times. He's a year older than Vlad. He's a great prospect but I think Vlad is an entirely different universe than anyone else.
1:17 What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
1:19 He's probably a DH. He's huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I'd want for 2019, it'd be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn't take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.
1:33 How difficult was it deciding between Tatis and Guerrero for the #1 ranking?
1:33 Not really. See above - we're talking a ~20 run advantage for Tatis out of the chute, and I happen to think Tatis is going to mash, plus I have long-term concerns over Vlad's body that aren't there for Tatis.
1:42 A lot of people are putting an 80 grade on Vlad's hit tool. You don't think that adds up to more than 20 runs? Or do you think Tatis' bat is better than others are giving credit for?
1:43 I don't think his bat will be 20 runs better than Tatis year in and year out - and I think Tatis may be better than average at short - and I would bet on Tatis having a longer, healthier career than Vlad.
Edited by Mike Sixel, 30 January 2019 - 01:40 PM.