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Keith Law Top 100 - no love for Graterol

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#21 gunnarthor

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 12:45 PM

 

Perhaps more surprisingly, he's got Tatis Jr. ranked #1 and Guerrero Jr. ranked #2.

I don't get that at all. Vlad, as a 19 year old, struck out 38 times and walked 37 across AA/AAA. He actually walked more in AAA than he struck out. He's a generational talent. I would bet a huge amount of money that he'll be a hall of famer.

Tatis spent the entire season in AA where he struck out 109 times and only walked 33 times. He's a year older than Vlad. He's a great prospect but I think Vlad is an entirely different universe than anyone else.

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#22 birdwatcher

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 12:56 PM

 

I don't get that at all. Vlad, as a 19 year old, struck out 38 times and walked 37 across AA/AAA. He actually walked more in AAA than he struck out. He's a generational talent. I would bet a huge amount of money that he'll be a hall of famer.

Tatis spent the entire season in AA where he struck out 109 times and only walked 33 times. He's a year older than Vlad. He's a great prospect but I think Vlad is an entirely different universe than anyone else.

 

Just a hunch that Law's first 1,375 chat questions will be on this subject.

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#23 Dance with Disco Dan

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 01:17 PM

 

What does Klaw say about Balazovic? His numbers in A ball were solid - esp his strike outs.IIRC, he was a high riser on draft day and the Twins paid overslot for him. Scouts saw the potential in him. I can't find the thread but I remember posting some pretty encouraging scouting reports about him last year.

 

That 2016 draft is going to rival the 2012 draft for us.

 

The write-up on Balazovic is short but the big take-aways are that he is athletic, still filling out, and he has plus control of four pitches while working in the mid-90s. KLaw used the phrase "blew scouts away" regarding his 11 Cedar Rapids starts.

 

I like to follow our prospects but I wasn't ready to see Jordan to be among the top 110. A pleasant surprise to learn he's so well regarded.

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#24 nicksaviking

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 01:28 PM

I don’t agree with Klaw’s ranking of Graterol or Tatis over Guerrero, but he has always given guys who look certain to stick at shortstop extra favor and short right handed starters big demerits. I’ll disagree but he’s consistent, maybe stubbornly so. Predictable even, and that’s fine.
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#25 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 01:33 PM

 

I don't get that at all. Vlad, as a 19 year old, struck out 38 times and walked 37 across AA/AAA. He actually walked more in AAA than he struck out. He's a generational talent. I would bet a huge amount of money that he'll be a hall of famer.

Tatis spent the entire season in AA where he struck out 109 times and only walked 33 times. He's a year older than Vlad. He's a great prospect but I think Vlad is an entirely different universe than anyone else.

 

Lale
1:17 What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
Keith Law
1:19 He's probably a DH. He's huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I'd want for 2019, it'd be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn't take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.

 

David
1:33 How difficult was it deciding between Tatis and Guerrero for the #1 ranking?
Keith Law
1:33 Not really. See above - we're talking a ~20 run advantage for Tatis out of the chute, and I happen to think Tatis is going to mash, plus I have long-term concerns over Vlad's body that aren't there for Tatis.

 

randplaty
1:42 A lot of people are putting an 80 grade on Vlad's hit tool. You don't think that adds up to more than 20 runs? Or do you think Tatis' bat is better than others are giving credit for?
Keith Law
1:43 I don't think his bat will be 20 runs better than Tatis year in and year out - and I think Tatis may be better than average at short - and I would bet on Tatis having a longer, healthier career than Vlad.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 30 January 2019 - 01:40 PM.

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 01:35 PM

Jamie
1:23 Has Nick Gordon fallen off the prospect ledge?What are scouts saying about him?
Keith Law
1:23 Look at what he did in AAA - and scouts said it was like he was swinging a wet noodle.

 

Derek
1:24 Guys like Alonso, Rooker, Yordan to name a few are they dinged in rankings because of the high threshold for 1B Bats?
Keith Law
1:25 Yes, and none is a good defender.

 

Randy
1:33 Hi Keith, do you think Kirilloff could make it up to Twins by the end of the year? Thanks!
Keith Law
1:33 Nonzero chance but very unlikely.

 

Larry
1:34 Is Fernando Romero still a prospect?
Keith Law
1:34 No longer eligible. Still love him, want to see him start.

 

Hank
1:36 Does BRUSDAR's height create the same plane concerns that Berrios' did on the fastball for you?
Keith Law
1:36 They aren't the same pitcher. Graterol's issues are more delivery-related - see the just missed column for more.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 30 January 2019 - 01:38 PM.

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#27 Dman

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 02:30 PM

Ouch on the Gordon Comments.I mean Nick had a very good OPS in AA gotta believe he is better than what we saw in a SSS in AAA.Doesn't sound like Law is a believer though.

 

Not surprised about Rooker and Kiriloff, but surprised that he see's Romero as a solid starter.I thought a fair number of scouts saw Romero as reliever a long time ago.

 

Will be interesting to see if his concerns about Brusdar come to fruition.

 

I like how he looks at things just hoping for more from the Twins Prospects.Always fun to see what he has to say.

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#28 Sconnie

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 02:33 PM

 

Number 108 is no love?

good point, how much difference is there 'really' between 90 and 110?


#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 02:35 PM

 

Ouch on the Gordon Comments.I mean Nick had a very good OPS in AA gotta believe he is better than what we saw in a SSS in AAA.Doesn't sound like Law is a believer though.

 

Not surprised about Rooker and Kiriloff, but surprised that he see's Romero as a solid starter.I thought a fair number of scouts saw Romero as reliever a long time ago.

 

Will be interesting to see if his concerns about Brusdar come to fruition.

 

I like how he looks at things just hoping for more from the Twins Prospects.Always fun to see what he has to say.

 

And he's been a Gordon supporter up until now......

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#30 Tomj14

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 03:15 PM

 

And he's been a Gordon supporter up until now......

Seems like another prospect they held onto too long. (Hope not)

Seems like two years ago Gonzo and Gordon would head line a deal, not so much the case anymore.


#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 03:43 PM

I'm not giving up on Gordon at all, but last year has to make people question what he might become......Trea Turner was taken not long after Gordon.....sigh.

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#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 04:19 PM

I'm not giving up on Gordon at all, but last year has to make people question what he might become......Trea Turner was taken not long after Gordon.....sigh.


If memory serves, you were a Turner guy? Kudos if so.

Yeah Turner probably got hurt by prospect fatigue, where as Gordon got bumped by lineage excitement.

#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 04:38 PM

 

If memory serves, you were a Turner guy? Kudos if so.

Yeah Turner probably got hurt by prospect fatigue, where as Gordon got bumped by lineage excitement.

 

I don't recall who I liked more, but I predicted the Twins would take Gordon.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#34 SydneyTwinsFan

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 06:26 PM

Number 108 is no love?

 

I was thinking in relative terms compared to BP (33), BA (55) and MLB Pipeline (68)

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#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 06:37 PM

 

I was thinking in relative terms compared to BP (33), BA (55) and MLB Pipeline (68)

 

Got it, and yes, definitely a different ranking! I wonder where FG will have him. Keith and the FG's guys are former scouts....

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#36 h2oface

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 06:39 PM

 

Number 108 is no love?

 

.... means destined for greatness! 108 stiches on the balls he throws. 108 ranked. His first no-hitter will be 108 pitches. Destiny is exposed.

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#37 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 31 January 2019 - 04:13 AM

If memory serves, you were a Turner guy? Kudos if so.

Yeah Turner probably got hurt by prospect fatigue, where as Gordon got bumped by lineage excitement.


Turner was hyped as the top pick early in the draft season, and fell off. You can do this a million different ways, and it’s sort of pointless, but in retrospect, it would have been great if the Twins had taken Turner, or Aaron Nola, who posted college numbers throughout his draft season that look a lot like the numbers he put up for Philly last year.

Also in retrospect, I’m sure fans of other teams wish they had drafted Berrios and Kiriloff when they had the chance.
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#38 birdwatcher

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Posted 31 January 2019 - 04:42 PM

 

Turner was hyped as the top pick early in the draft season, and fell off. You can do this a million different ways, and it’s sort of pointless, but in retrospect, it would have been great if the Twins had taken Turner, or Aaron Nola, who posted college numbers throughout his draft season that look a lot like the numbers he put up for Philly last year.

Also in retrospect, I’m sure fans of other teams wish they had drafted Berrios and Kiriloff when they had the chance.

 

 

I would probably bet that Turner ultimately has a better MLB career than Gordon, but no more than a couple bucks.

 

For a long time people ripped the Twins for passing on Jason Varitek to take Torii Hunter. Not only did that pan out in favor of the Twins, but each of the 18 teams who passed on Hunter would've been glad to have a do-over. Not to mention the poor fans of the Mariners, who picked first and didn't screw up the no-brainer of the century. Until later. Alex Rodriquez. Ouch.


#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 January 2019 - 04:46 PM

 

I would probably bet that Turner ultimately has a better MLB career than Gordon, but no more than a couple bucks.

 

For a long time people ripped the Twins for passing on Jason Varitek to take Torii Hunter. Not only did that pan out in favor of the Twins, but each of the 18 teams who passed on Hunter would've been glad to have a do-over. Not to mention the poor fans of the Mariners, who picked first and didn't screw up the no-brainer of the century. Until later. Alex Rodriquez. Ouch.

 

only a few bucks?

 

Here are Turner's WAR the last three years:

3.3

2.8

4.6

 

His projections for next year are for more than that. The odds of any player in the minors doing that are low, let alone Gordon. 

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#40 sdangus

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Posted 31 January 2019 - 06:23 PM

 

Turner was hyped as the top pick early in the draft season, and fell off. You can do this a million different ways, and it’s sort of pointless, but in retrospect, it would have been great if the Twins had taken Turner, or Aaron Nola, who posted college numbers throughout his draft season that look a lot like the numbers he put up for Philly last year.

Also in retrospect, I’m sure fans of other teams wish they had drafted Berrios and Kiriloff when they had the chance.

If I remember right, the Twins were also very high on both Turner and Nola before that draft. Looks like they settled on the wrong player at this point. But at the same point I would guess critics were saying the Twins erred in picking Mauer over Prior. I'm not going to say Gordon will turn into Mauer, but things may click to make him a servicable player. And who knows what the future holds for the others.