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Twins actively discussing locking up parts of young core

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#21 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 04:56 PM

 

?????

I don’t even know where to begin.

1) How is Kepler not consistent compared with Buxton and Sano? His three years at the MLB level he posted OPS + of 96, 95 and 96. That’s the literal definition of consistent.

2) Why does he have to prove he can consistently hit? Buxton and Sano sure as hell haven’t.

3) IMO Kepler is more likely to be a Twin in 5 years than Sano or Buxton. Or Rosario frankly.

Kepler is 26. You can begin there.

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#22 rdehring

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 05:04 PM

Really want them to extend Berrios, Rosario, Gibson and May.Also would understand doing Kepler, Buxton and Sano, although each of the last two would be a bit tricky considering their 2018's.  

 

Excellent time to front load some contracts with nice signing bonuses with dollar certainty two-three-four years out. 


#23 yarnivek1972

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 05:48 PM

Kepler is 26. You can begin there.


Sano will be 26 in May. Exactly what is your point?

#24 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 05:53 PM

 

Sano will be 26 in May. Exactly what is your point?

My point regarding Kepler is that he's still maturing as a hitter. 

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#25 yarnivek1972

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 05:55 PM

I should've clarified, I don't disagree on the Sano and Buxton parts and certainly wouldn't offer either of them any long term contracts at the moment either. I do agree, Kepler is likely to maintain what he is, but I'm not in any particular hurry to lock up a 95 OPS+ outfielder to a long term contract. Though I could live with a 2 or 3 year deal if the price is right. I would not be happy if they gave him longer than 3 years, and I think the cost is going to need to be pretty team friendly. I'd rather have them go outside the org if they're going to give him more years or big dollars, but I know some people are higher on Kepler than me and think he's still going to break out.


I don’t think anyone is suggesting that Kepler should get superstar money. But there is a lot of value in a 3-4 year contract for him - on both sides. At what price? No idea. Something fair? Is that a cop out?

Edited by yarnivek1972, 28 January 2019 - 05:57 PM.

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 06:02 PM

If I'm Buxton or Sano, I'm betting on myself and won't sign a longterm deal after last year. If I'm Berrios, I'd sign a fair longterm deal but I'm not sure the team will offer a fair one. Rosario and Kepler probably make the most since of the core guys since they've both been steady for several years so both sides probably have a decent guess of their value and upside.


This. Except if you believe in Kirilloff, I don't extend Rosario. Frankly I trade him at this deadline, I bet.
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#27 darin617

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 06:27 PM

 

I will believe it when i see it.

They might try to extend some of them. Sad part is they won't get any of them to sign into their free agent years.

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#28 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 06:28 PM

 

?????

I don’t even know where to begin.

1) How is Kepler not consistent compared with Buxton and Sano? His three years at the MLB level he posted OPS + of 96, 95 and 96. That’s the literal definition of consistent.

2) Why does he have to prove he can consistently hit? Buxton and Sano sure as hell haven’t.

3) IMO Kepler is more likely to be a Twin in 5 years than Sano or Buxton. Or Rosario frankly.

Kepler is consistent; consistently below average. Why lock up a below average hitter when he's had a 1500+ AB opportunity and come up short at the plate? I also agree on Sano and Buxton, I just don't think that any Twins FO is ever going to give up on them because they have such an incredibly high ceiling. Those two are worth taking some longer term risk because of that ceiling and the better chance of improvement.

 

My point is that this team has lived with mediocrity for too long in part because we anoint guys as MLB players before they prove themselves. Kepler may very well be part of the core of a contender by the end of next year. He isn't now and he won't be unless he significantly improves at the plate. Maybe he breaks out this year - I hope he does but you can't give a guy a a longer term deal on anything other than a extremely team friendly basis based on his performance. Let's see if he does that before we strike with him. 

 

BTW, I hope you're wrong on the 3rd point. This team has to go back into tear down and rebuild if Buxton and Sano both don't make it and Rosario leaves. 

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#29 jorgenswest

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 06:37 PM

They might try to extend some of them. Sad part is they won't get any of them to sign into their free agent years.


Is it considered an extension if it does not go beyond years on control? I read lock up to longer term deals as extending control.

#30 spycake

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 06:46 PM

Is it considered an extension if it does not go beyond years on control? I read lock up to longer term deals as extending control.


I agree that is how the term should be used, but in practice it seems "extend" is simply any new multi-year deal for a player already under contract.

For example, see MLBTR's post from 2015, "Twins Extend Brian Dozier":

https://www.mlbtrade...ian-dozier.html

#31 yarnivek1972

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 06:56 PM

Kepler is consistent; consistently below average. Why lock up a below average hitter when he's had a 1500+ AB opportunity and come up short at the plate? I also agree on Sano and Buxton, I just don't think that any Twins FO is ever going to give up on them because they have such an incredibly high ceiling. Those two are worth taking some longer term risk because of that ceiling and the better chance of improvement.

My point is that this team has lived with mediocrity for too long in part because we anoint guys as MLB players before they prove themselves. Kepler may very well be part of the core of a contender by the end of next year. He isn't now and he won't be unless he significantly improves at the plate. Maybe he breaks out this year - I hope he does but you can't give a guy a a longer term deal on anything other than a extremely team friendly basis based on his performance. Let's see if he does that before we strike with him.

BTW, I hope you're wrong on the 3rd point. This team has to go back into tear down and rebuild if Buxton and Sano both don't make it and Rosario leaves.


Buxton and Sano may or may not “make it”, but I see zero chance either is a Twin beyond his FA eligibility.

#32 KirbyDome89

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:15 PM

 

Why lock up Sano or Buxton when there are legitimate questions as to whether or not they are MLB hitters?

There is no reason to think Kepler can’t at least maintain what he’s done. And he’s pretty likely to improve. There is literally no definable base for speculation as to what to expect from Sano or Buxton. They have both been horrendously inconsistent.

Yes and no. Kepler has been more consistent than Buxton or Sano in terms of aggregate numbers; his splits are anything but consistent. He arrived at roughly the same place last season, and the one before, but the paths he took to those end results are entirely different. 

 

Depending on the extension I can certainly see the value in retaining him, but I also understand some of the concern or lack of enthusiasm. 

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#33 jorgenswest

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:45 PM

The Twins can afford to pay the arb reward if they earn it. I want players hungry for that reward.

I am not interested in deals where the only purpose is cost certainty without extending team control. If they end up star players the Twins will have to rewrite the last few years to get them to extend into free agency so it is no win. If the player tanks the Twins will continue to roster them because of the dollars.

Keep the players hungry during arb and only extend to buy free agency years and a real extension of control.
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#34 nater79a

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 08:06 PM

 

But Merrifield is already around 30, so guaranteed money is a bigger thing to him, than risk.

 

Yeah, that probably plays into it as well.


#35 TheLeviathan

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 08:42 PM

Let me know when this actually happens.Sounds like a defense for the other inactivity.

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#36 Otwins

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 10:54 PM

I would extend Gibson. If not the Twins will need to sign four starters next off season.One young pitcher may step forward but three is still a lot to sign in free agency.

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#37 markos

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Posted 29 January 2019 - 12:14 PM

 

Kepler is consistent; consistently below average. Why lock up a below average hitter when he's had a 1500+ AB opportunity and come up short at the plate? I also agree on Sano and Buxton, I just don't think that any Twins FO is ever going to give up on them because they have such an incredibly high ceiling. Those two are worth taking some longer term risk because of that ceiling and the better chance of improvement.

 

My point is that this team has lived with mediocrity for too long in part because we anoint guys as MLB players before they prove themselves. Kepler may very well be part of the core of a contender by the end of next year. He isn't now and he won't be unless he significantly improves at the plate. Maybe he breaks out this year - I hope he does but you can't give a guy a a longer term deal on anything other than a extremely team friendly basis based on his performance. Let's see if he does that before we strike with him. 

 

BTW, I hope you're wrong on the 3rd point. This team has to go back into tear down and rebuild if Buxton and Sano both don't make it and Rosario leaves. 

There is decent evidence that Kepler had a break out last year, but it just got buried under some bad BABIP luck. His BB% was up significantly, his K% was down significantly. He "barreled" a higher percentage of contact. His statcast exit velocity metrics were better. But his overall batting line was about the same as previous years because he ended up with a .236 BABIP rather than something near his career average (.265-ish). Projection systems are already expecting him to break out next year.

 

Anyway, this is a situation where I think it makes sense to lock up a player early. Kepler is already arbitration eligible. A break out next year will guarantee him a significant raise both for 2020 and the rest of his arbitration years, at which point a team friendly extension will be much less attractive for him.

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#38 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 08:31 PM

 

They might try to extend some of them. Sad part is they won't get any of them to sign into their free agent years.

 

Given how the FA markets have played out over the last two seasons, I'd be curious as to how this changes things. Teams don't seem to want to hand out those big contracts anymore unless you're a superstar, which none of these guys are... but some still could be. 

 

I'd be interested in seeing how agents are approaching this..

 

As for extending them, I'd have no problems extending all of them for the right price. I'm not sure some would sign them as the right price will be pretty low in some cases... Buxton, May, and Sano would be wise to bet on themselves for another season given how bad/injured they were in 2018. Kepler probably as well, but for different reasons. Berrios, Gibson, and Rosario have done well enough to get a decent contract. 

 

 

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#39 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 09:02 PM

There is decent evidence that Kepler had a break out last year, but it just got buried under some bad BABIP luck. His BB% was up significantly, his K% was down significantly. He "barreled" a higher percentage of contact. His statcast exit velocity metrics were better. But his overall batting line was about the same as previous years because he ended up with a .236 BABIP rather than something near his career average (.265-ish). Projection systems are already expecting him to break out next year.
 
Anyway, this is a situation where I think it makes sense to lock up a player early. Kepler is already arbitration eligible. A break out next year will guarantee him a significant raise both for 2020 and the rest of his arbitration years, at which point a team friendly extension will be much less attractive for him.

Thanks for the vote of confidence. I had been seeing positive data on Kepler's performance on the threads here and there, but never took the time to put it all together as it is here.
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#40 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 30 January 2019 - 09:14 PM

To the case for Kepler, I'd add that he actually OPS'd better versus lefties in 2018, putting to bed the concern about his platoon split (at least for a year). Also, Kepler has a great relationship with Buxton, and I enjoy seeing those two in the outfield together.
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