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Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target

alex kirilloff
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#21 ashbury

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:47 AM

A big-time catcher is a rich team's luxury. Acquiring one consumes resources that could have been applied to someone who plays 150+ games a year or starts 32.

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#22 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:49 AM

Give me defense over offense up the middle at catcher, SS and CF. Give me offense over defense at 3B, 1B, LF. Give me some of both offense and defense at 2B and RF and utility IF and OF. A great hitter at DH (not a jumble of whom ever needs a rest that day). That is how I would look to build my team.

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#23 Doctor Wu

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:51 AM

 

Cruz saw something he liked here and decided to come. Says he sees a young talented team that reminds him of his days in Texas. Not everybody is going to feel that way. Grandal saw the same thing in Milwaukee. That's why I don't agree with comments stating the Twins didn't try hard enough or low balled an offer. Negative commentary without any proof. The Twins have been HORRIBLE for the better part of a decade and the area is unknown to most players who the vast majority of come from warm climates. The only way this team can consistently attract top talent is to build something players want to be a part of.

I think that is very true, especially the last sentence. The Twins will never be able to compete with the elite money teams like New York and LA in attracting big name free agents, so we need to have some other qualities to entice them. What would work? A great manager and coaching staff? The chance to play with some great young talent? Free ice skating perks in the winter?

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#24 Tomj14

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:52 AM

Weird Twins fans finding more reasons to not get an already established all star player, this time it is because he is a catcher, it is because of the cost, he might get hurt and because they can't give up a player that hasn't made it past high A yet.

 

 

 

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#25 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:56 AM

I'm not a huge fan of trading for Realmuto, since he is a C, unless the Twins made a couple of other moves.

 

I think I'd need to see the Twins land Machado (which isn't going to happen) to make me a backer of trading for Realmuto (kinda like the Brewers with signing Cain and trading for Yelich last year, they needed both to be a WS contender)

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#26 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 08:07 AM

 

I'd certainly entertain this idea, but I'd be more inclined to get a big-time starting pitcher if I'm trading away Kirilloff. Noah Syndergaard?

 

Exactly... Umm... except for the entertain part. I won't even entertain it. 

 

Position scarcity over pay every time. Grow your own catcher and be on the other side of such over pay trades in the future. 

 

Realmuto would play 125 games tops and his best season ever was last year and he hit what Eduardo Escobar hit last year.

 

The reported price tag for Realmuto would get you someone like Kluber.  

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#27 CLo

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 08:49 AM

Having seen Kiriloff & Lewis, I think both especially Kiriloff are untouchable. Twins have great prospect depth at shortstop so even though Lewis is a gem I would trade him for Realmuto only if an extension could be reached by the Marlins adding 2 or 3 years to his contract.To be successful you have to be strong up the middle - catcher, 2nd base /shortstop & centerfield. The Twins are not exactly set up in those positions but the real Byron Buxton emerging would help ! Falvey & Levine (aka Batman & Robin) have only two or three more seasons to prove all their changes and moves have the Twins in a Championship caliber franchise. Maybe include Max Kepler in the deal ?!?


#28 HrbieFan

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 08:59 AM

Prospects need to be partially looked at as assets. I am not against adding an All-star catcher, but are we at that point? If we had one more sure thing at SP and fewer questions about Bux and Sano, then I'd be all in for a trade. From a GM standpoint, you also have to get talent when you can.

#29 SomeGuy

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:07 AM

Below are the top 10 catchers of 2015 in terms of WAR.Only two of them were in the top 10 in WAR for 2018.Four had less than 20 plate appearances in 2018.I don't think it's a wise choice to trade a top 10 prospect for someone who is currently among the best at the vulnerable position of catcher.I think there is a very good reason no one has bitten on the Marlins demands yet.

 

Buster Posey(12th in 2018 WAR, age 31)

Francisco Cervelli(3rd, age 32)

Russell Martin(34th, age 35)

Brian McCann(37th,age 34)

Derek Norris(zero MLB plate appearances in 2018, age 29)

Stephen Vogt (zero MLB plate appearances in 2018, age 34)

Nick Hundley(30th, age 35)

Travis dArnaud(16 PA in 2018, age 29)

Yasmani Grandal(2nd, age 30)

Miguel Montero(13 PA in 2018, age 35)

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#30 nicksaviking

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:13 AM

 

Exactly... Umm... except for the entertain part. I won't even entertain it. 

 

Position scarcity over pay every time. Grow your own catcher and be on the other side of such over pay trades in the future. 

 

Realmuto would play 125 games tops and his best season ever was last year and he hit what Eduardo Escobar hit last year.

 

The reported price tag for Realmuto would get you someone like Kluber.  

 

Speaking of growing, Garver's starting to grow on me, assuming the Twins continue to ride with him behind the plate. His bat isn't a liability unlike 70% of the catchers in the league these days.

 

If I'm trading some of the top prospects for a bat I want a great hitter. Not a great hitter.....for a catcher.

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#31 gunnarthor

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:13 AM

I'd do this only if the Twins were going all-in. Trading for Realmuto by itself seems like a half-step. But if the Twins were going to sign Machado as well, then yes, do it.

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#32 AceWrigley

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:18 AM

I wanted Wilson Ramos back. The Mets signed Willy for 2 years, $19 mil guaranteed with performance bonuses and a fair option on a 3rd year. Stoopid Mets . . . just kidding. I think they're getting a good deal.

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#33 mikelink45

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:25 AM

I have a difficult time evaluating players values - especially in a trade like this because we have been raised by TD to see Kiriloff and a future HOF player and who wants to trade such a great player?Of course I also have to wonder what Realmuto's value over Garver/Castro really amounts to.Then I look at Mauer and Posey and think about the catcher position and the wear and tear it takes.We see a few players seem to defy aging, but for the most part catchers wear out and take different positions.When does that happen?This 2015 study gives some insight. 

https://www.bostongl...SYuK/story.html

 

This 2017 article adds more perspective although it does not look at the catcher position  https://baseballwith...l-players-peak/

 

And finally, here is an aging curve for catchers https://blogs.fangra...ve-not-a-cliff/We would buy Realmuto as he is rising, but pay for him on the decline. Will Castro get 2 WAR again, will Garver improve on his .9 WAR?

 

That is a lot to think about. 


#34 gunnarthor

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:31 AM

The other obvious question is, if the Twins are willing to move Kiriloff, is Realmuto the best target for him? Could we get a potential better starter instead to pare with Berrios?

 

But this still requires the FO going all-in and signing Machado.

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#35 JLease

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:58 AM

Ugh. I'm really high on Kirilloff, so I would struggle with this one. But the reality is, it will take someone of that caliber to get Realmuto, who is an all-star MLB catcher in his prime years still under team control. It would not be a crazy move at all.

 

Catcher is definitely an area where I understand the team concern. Castro is coming off a significant knee injury, isn't a good offensive player, and his contract is up at the end of the year. Garver made very nice progress, but now we need to worry about concussion issues. Astudillo? Can he stick behind the plate, and is he really this kind of hitter? No one knows. Behind them, there's very little in the minors. Rortvedt (whom I like) hasn't played above A ball, and may never hit enough to really be an asset. There's a lot of questions and not a lot of depth in the pipeline.

 

It'd be a bold move. It's also one that you'd want to have a multi-year extension in place to buy out that last arbitration year and at least 1 FA year if you're going to give up an elite prospect...


#36 HrbekRules

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 10:12 AM

If the Twins were close to contending, make the trade.The Twins are not close right now, save the assets for use later when they are close and need one piece to push the team over the top.If they go and sign Machado and Keuchel (not happening), then make the trade for Realmuto.

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#37 Nick Nelson

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 10:51 AM

 

If the Twins were close to contending, make the trade.The Twins are not close right now, save the assets for use later when they are close and need one piece to push the team over the top.If they go and sign Machado and Keuchel (not happening), then make the trade for Realmuto.

The O/U for the Twins this year is 84.5 wins. They are absolutely close to contending, and Realmuto would further legitimize that status. If people truly don't think the Twins are even on the verge of contention with almost their entire core in their prime, that's pretty sad.

 

Also, I get the Kirilloff love but... folks, he hasn't played above A-ball. Haven't we learned a thing or two about the fragility of "sure thing" prospects? I'm stunned by the nonchalance around adding a potential 5-WAR player, or the notion that such a move on its own would be pointless. 

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#38 nicksaviking

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 11:00 AM

 

Weird Twins fans finding more reasons to not get an already established all star player, this time it is because he is a catcher, it is because of the cost, he might get hurt and because they can't give up a player that hasn't made it past high A yet.

 

I don't know about "established". He's only been an All Star once. His career OPS is lower than the largely maligned CJ Cron.

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#39 IndianaTwin

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 11:10 AM

Talent levels aside, I think a reason people (including me) are reluctant to give big assets for a catcher is because the one we signed on a three-year contract got hurt early in his second year. 


#40 Vanimal46

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Posted 28 January 2019 - 11:15 AM

I don't know about "established". He's only been an All Star once. His career OPS is lower than the largely maligned CJ Cron.


Help me understand why you compared these 2 players at all?
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