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Article: Where Are We Now?

eddie rosario nelson cruz byron buxton miguel sano jose berrios
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#21 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 11:57 AM

I think you're probably right but have one question to which I can't seem to get an answer. I question why the assumption is that Kepler starts in RF with Cave as the 4th OF. Based on performance, it should be the other way around at least until we see if Cave's solid second half last year (much better at the plate than Kepler) was a mirage. They're both good in the OF, with Kepler reputedly better. Yet Molitor tried both in CF last year and Cave was the starting CF when both were available.That at least suggests that last year's manager thought Cave was the better outfielder. I've thought about 3 possible answers but none really answer the question for me:

 

(1) Kepler has more potential/a higher upside. That might have made sense last year or two years ago, but Kepler now has 1500 plus ABS and can't hit. A .730 OPS just isn't good enough for a corner OF. Not even close. 1500 ABs suggest that he may be close to his ceiling now. 

 

(2) Small sample size for Cave who didn't make the majors until age 25. Fair point, but not a reason to bench him. He won the job last year with superior performance so he should get the chance to build on that performance. Good teams reward on field performance. Mediocre to bad teams pick favorites, play them regardless of performance,and then wonder why the team doesn't get better. Which one are we? 

 

(3) Cave strikes out to much and we need better OBP with all of the SO prone power hitters we now have. Logical thought process to get rid of Austin, but Kepler has an OBP of .309, .312, and .319 the last 3 years and is projected at .317 for 2019. Cave was .316 OBP last year with an OPS that was 70 points higher. The OBPs are basically the same and Cave is more productive overall. . 

 

This decision isn't a big deal in the larger sense that there are enough ABs in the OF for both to get 500 plus this year, particularly if Kepler plays some as the LH hitting 1B, something he absolutely should do. We don't need 600 plus ABs of Cron at 1B.He's better than Austin but he isn't an All-Star. It's just that the assumption that Kepler is the starting RF when he just hasn't performed at the plate now for 3 years looks like more of the same scholarship thinking that has killed this team for years. We need to reward performance, not hoped for potential. 

 

That's the larger point. I look at the lineup and every single player has question marks as to whether they are quality MLB players except for Cruz (and he's old), and I would say Rosario. Same for the pitching staff outside of Berrios, Gibson and maybe Rogers. Yet I read these reviews and we're assuming guys like Kepler, Polanco and Hildenberger are established Major League players who shouldn't have to compete for their jobs and be moved aside if some unknown shows up and plays better.They aren't. I'm very hopeful/optimistic about the new FO and this year in part because I'm thinking/hoping that the new regime will actually reward on field performance without being tied to past favorites. That thinking has to prevail or we can't improve. Otherwise, it's just the Terry Ryan era all over again.

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 12:16 PM

I'm guessing one more relief pitcher, and out of the race by the ASB, and a sell off of pitchers.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#23 TheLeviathan

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 01:10 PM

I need two more significant signings.Right now, this team is an 80ish win, frustrating team.

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#24 GP830

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 01:34 PM

Perhaps i'm off base, but I don't see why the Twins wouldn't be at least interested in either Harper or Machado at this juncture seeing as how most of the big name teams are out. Singing either would immediately put us into another competitive echelon. 

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#25 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 01:39 PM

Whatever they plan to do, I'd like to see it get wrapped up soon. 

 

Last year, too much of the nucleus was added after the players were already in Ft. Myers. I think any big additions should be made before Twins Fest so that the players can come to Minneapolis and mingle, meet their teammates off the field, establish some esprit de corps. Just my opinion. 

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#26 adorduan

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 01:59 PM

Magill and Duffy don't belong on a team that's trying to contend.

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#27 Number3

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 01:59 PM

 

Perhaps i'm off base, but I don't see why the Twins wouldn't be at least interested in either Harper or Machado at this juncture seeing as how most of the big name teams are out. Singing either would immediately put us into another competitive echelon. 

Please, no one like either one on the 2019 Twins until we see who the 2019 Twins are. Harper has peaked and should be called Mr. April. What he would cost would be a clubhouse disaster. Same for Machado, to a lesser degree, whose middle name(s) should be hot dog. Both think they are walking.championships and neither will ever play on a championship team. Either would cause big problems especially for an essentially new team with a new manager to boot.

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#28 lukeduke1980

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 02:03 PM

There could be a nice chunk of change coming off the books after this year - Reed, Pineda, Castro, Odorizzi, Schoop, Cruz.Where we are now seems to be at the cusp of a rebuild

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#29 ashbury

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 04:08 PM

Perhaps i'm off base, but I don't see why the Twins wouldn't be at least interested in either Harper or Machado at this juncture seeing as how most of the big name teams are out. Singing either would immediately put us into another competitive echelon. 

DBcUtoo.jpg

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So, in conclusion, what was your question again?


#30 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 04:18 PM

I will be very upset if the Twins go into the season with Duffey and Magill in the bullpen. There are FA's available that can greatly improve the bullpen.

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#31 gunnarthor

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 04:31 PM

 

Perhaps i'm off base, but I don't see why the Twins wouldn't be at least interested in either Harper or Machado at this juncture seeing as how most of the big name teams are out. Singing either would immediately put us into another competitive echelon. 

It's only b/c our ownership has been able to make the fanbase accept that those sort of additions aren't possible for the low payroll scrappy Twins. We have the payroll to do so. We just won't. And that blame is completely on the Pohlads. They are horrible owners.

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 05:17 PM

I need two more significant signings. Right now, this team is an 80ish win, frustrating team.


Yep. They are set up to win 77-85 games depending on luck and health. Same range they've been in over the last 3 years. If they elect to head into the season status quo it's going to make my decision to renew MLB.tv subscription pretty easy. Hard pass.
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#33 Channing1964

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 07:46 PM

why aren't we signing Marwin Gonzalez? I get it Derek let your first love (the Indians) have him. jeeze. you guys are clowns!

#34 nater79a

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 08:22 PM

 

There could be a nice chunk of change coming off the books after this year - Reed, Pineda, Castro, Odorizzi, Schoop, Cruz.Where we are now seems to be at the cusp of a rebuild

 

Can add Kyle Gibson to this list too,I guess. At just over $8 million for this season.

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#35 TheLeviathan

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 09:12 PM

 

Yep. They are set up to win 77-85 games depending on luck and health. Same range they've been in over the last 3 years. If they elect to head into the season status quo it's going to make my decision to renew MLB.tv subscription pretty easy. Hard pass.

 

Reddit allows me to never have to give MLB another dollar of my money.Mine has already been canceled.

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#36 miracleb

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 06:00 AM

The payroll is too low not to grab another arm or two. Given that injuries happen and Pineda is likely to get hurt some time this season, I think the Twins should heavily consider adding Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, or even Clay Bucholz as well as Ottavino to round out the bullpen.

The lineup looks very solid on paper. Sano and Buxton can get this team to 90 wins alone by each having a 2017-like year. The powerful additions of Schoop, Cron, and Cruz will make the middle of the lineup very dangerous. There's very good potential for this team to have 6-7 20 HR hitters. Add in improvements from Kepler and Castro and you've got a rock solid lineup top to bottom.
The only thing that will hold this team back is most likely that 5th starter spot (if no additions are made), and the back of the bullpen, which is relatively unproven. That's why getting Ottavino would be huge.



"Add in improvements from Kepler and Castro?" A better option would be if Castro couldn't come back from his injury. A .225 batting average and 11 hrs is his ceiling for 2019....but at least he can frame a pitch! Terrible signing originally ......and will continue to be a problem in 2019. I am hoping "sunk cost" is a term Falvey is considering with Castro!

#37 miracleb

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 06:10 AM

Tyler Austin will probably hit 30+ homers this year ............................................... for Kansas City, Detroit or Baltimore.



Agree! Front office will drop the ball on Austin like they did with Daniel Palka last year. Guess who led the White Sox in home runs last year.....and he didn't even start the season in the big leagues?
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#38 miracleb

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 06:13 AM

Done being negative!

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#39 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 08:02 AM

 

why aren't we signing Marwin Gonzalez? I get it Derek let your first love (the Indians) have him. jeeze. you guys are clowns!

 

Do you honestly believe our front office is doing this?


#40 birdwatcher

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 09:15 AM

 

Agree! Front office will drop the ball on Austin like they did with Daniel Palka last year. Guess who led the White Sox in home runs last year.....and he didn't even start the season in the big leagues?

 

 

Please, Mr. Falvey, no more lumbering, boring, base-clogging, rally-killing, fumbling, flailing types. All-around players are so much prettier to watch!!:)

Edited by birdwatcher, 16 January 2019 - 09:15 AM.

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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: eddie rosario, nelson cruz, byron buxton, miguel sano, jose berrios