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Denard Span 13th in WAR

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#1 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:39 AM

Denard is 30th among all MLB (13th in AL) batters and Joe Mauer is 33rd. Span is one spot higher than Hamilton and the 5th among Centerfielders (Trout, McCutchen, Bourn, Jackson) . More of statement, but I don't think anyone will offer that kind of value back for him.

#2 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:46 AM

WAR also says Jamey Carroll has the same value as Josh Willingham though. Just some food for thought.

#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:48 AM

Denard is 30th among all MLB (13th in AL) batters and Joe Mauer is 33rd. Span is one spot higher than Hamilton and the 5th among Centerfielders (Trout, McCutchen, Bourn, Jackson) . More of statement, but I don't think anyone will offer that kind of value back for him.


Denard's WAR seems absurdly high this season. Given WAR's tendency to fluctuate even in a full season of play (2-3 years is preferable for the metric), I wouldn't put too much stock into his 2012 WAR, which is considerably higher than his 2010-11 seasons. Almost 2 of those "wins" come from his defensive play, which Revere can do as well, if not better.

#4 CDog

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 11:30 AM

Also interesting that there is a fair amount of disagreement between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for several Twins, including Mauer and Span that I've noticed. There may be others as well.

#5 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 11:46 AM

You lost me after "one spot higher than Hamilton."

Though I'm hopefull the Twins front office learns how to pronounce it correctly and use it when promoting Span's trade value.

#6 Nick Nelson

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 12:14 PM

Also interesting that there is a fair amount of disagreement between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for several Twins, including Mauer and Span that I've noticed. There may be others as well.

Disagreement between those two versions of the metric is common. Neither is very good.

#7 ericchri

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 03:24 PM

Ugh, three of the most active threads on the forums simultaneously are essentially about Denard Span.

Span's WAR is high because he's played good defense this year at a prime defensive position. Hamilton mostly plays LF which is not considered a prime position, thus his defensive WAR is much lower.

Span's WAR is probably a bit high leading to where he ends up being ranked overall, but by the same token he's a good (not great) leadoff hitter who plays good defense at a position where defense is held at a premium, and has a relatively affordable contract. He's a good player who has some obvious value. Whether that turns into a return in trade or more time spent hitting for the Twins is yet to be determined, but it doesn't change the fact that he's had a really good season this year.

#8 StormJH1

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 05:43 PM

Re: Caroll and Willingham having similar WAR's.....Hahahahahaha

"WAR....HUH!.....what is it good for....absolutely nothing..,"

#9 jokin

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 06:02 PM

Also interesting that there is a fair amount of disagreement between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for several Twins, including Mauer and Span that I've noticed. There may be others as well.

Disagreement between those two versions of the metric is common. Neither is very good.


Close to half of Mauer's PAs are as a DH or 1B, obviously not valued as highly a position as C. Besides that, he has hit extraordinarily better as a C (BA .361/OPS .951) than at the other two positions, where his numbers are just slightly above average for the position (BA .286/OPS .800). It appears that BA does account for this in its positional weighting, while Fangraphs doesn't properly take this into account.

#10 Badsmerf

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 08:51 PM

Ugh, three of the most active threads on the forums simultaneously are essentially about Denard Span.

Span's WAR is high because he's played good defense this year at a prime defensive position. Hamilton mostly plays LF which is not considered a prime position, thus his defensive WAR is much lower.

Span's WAR is probably a bit high leading to where he ends up being ranked overall, but by the same token he's a good (not great) leadoff hitter who plays good defense at a position where defense is held at a premium, and has a relatively affordable contract. He's a good player who has some obvious value. Whether that turns into a return in trade or more time spent hitting for the Twins is yet to be determined, but it doesn't change the fact that he's had a really good season this year.

What exactly is a great leadoff hitter then? I'd say currently that Span absolutely is a great leadoff hitter. He's not a HOF, but if not great he is very good.

#11 CDog

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Posted 19 September 2012 - 10:31 PM

[quote name='jokin'][quote name='Nick Nelson'][quote name='CDog']Also interesting that there is a fair amount of disagreement between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for several Twins, including Mauer and Span that I've noticed. There may be others as well.[/QUOTE]
Disagreement between those two versions of the metric is common. Neither is very good.[/QUOTE]

Close to half of Mauer's PAs are as a DH or 1B, obviously not valued as highly a position as C. Besides that, he has hit extraordinarily better as a C (BA .361/OPS .951) than at the other two positions, where his numbers are just slightly above average for the position (BA .286/OPS .800). It appears that BA does account for this in its positional weighting, while Fangraphs doesn't properly take this into account.[/QUOTE]

Actually looks like the difference is much more the result of the defensive performance and not the offense at all.

#12 Wolfy

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 05:37 AM

His first AB is generally very effective. He sees a lot of pitches and seems to get on base frequently.

It would be interesting to find out the Twin's record when Span gets on base and scores in the first inning. Although, the record for every team is probably pretty good when their lead off guy does this.

#13 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 06:49 AM

WAR isn't perfect, but you can't dismiss it because you don't like the results. Span is an above-average to elite defensive CF, and an above-average lead-off hitter, both premium areas. In relation to the pack, I can see how he has a high WAR. Hamilton plays LF, where the league average numbers a higher. Mauer playing other positions, especially 1B where everybody goes .275/25/95, hurt his WAR this year.

Face the facts:Span is an above-average CF and lead off hitter. That his salary is so low makes him that much more valuable. He does things Revere can not do. Better at-bats, slightly more power, better arm, better OBP.

Moving Span for the right package would make sense, but they will not get equal value back in a trade because his value is higher than people realize.

#14 ericchri

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Posted 20 September 2012 - 08:54 AM

What exactly is a great leadoff hitter then? I'd say currently that Span absolutely is a great leadoff hitter. He's not a HOF, but if not great he is very good.


His .350 OBP is what makes him a good-not-great leadoff hitter. Don't mistake the tone of my post to mean I don't like him, I have about a half-dozen Twins shirts and the only one with a name on the back says "Span". I really like his approach at the plate, and he's above league average, but he's just not quite good enough for me to call him great. His base stealing probably doesn't help. I'll split the difference with you and agree to call him very good, though.