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Article: Best Remaining No-Risk Starters on the Free Agent Market

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#61 beckmt

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 10:16 AM

 

Another reason to extend Gibby! Extend him!

No! NO!!! NOO!!!!

Gibby is on the wrong side of 30 and when he loses a 1 or 2 off his fastball, he will be quite hittable.If you want this route, tag him at the end of the year.Much safer route and you get some compensation if he leaves (and you can do this to more than one starter if you are worried).  

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#62 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 10:26 AM

With all the success that the FO has had in the draft, IMO I think they can afford to give up one prospect in order to sign Keuchel. Also, I don’t see why teams are so hesitant about giving him 5 years, as if he’s declining, it’s not like his velocity has dropped that much, if at all.

#63 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 11:09 AM

 

If you want to sign either of those guys to a minor league contract, may have to wait until just before spring training or during spring training.Those guys will probably wait until close to spring training to take a minor league deal.

You still have about 5 starters that have pitched in the major leagues last year, most are ticketed for Rochester.Would hate to wait until next year to see what we have, because next year you will almost certainly need 2 - 3 of them.

Exactly beck, it could even be 4 depending upon how Mejia fares as an every turn ML SP.

 

I just don't get it. By not signing anyone to long-term deals for these past 3-4 off seasons they are backing themselves into a corner. 2019 is the time to find out if any of our depth is worth counting on for the future.

 

Awful job of developing by this org and an even worse job of turning excess minor league talent into usable ML assets. The Odorizzi deal is the type I refer to. I'm not a huge Odor fan but we should be seeing more of these when we are in avoidance of giving out long-term FA deals.

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#64 jorgenswest

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 11:37 AM

Exactly beck, it could even be 4 depending upon how Mejia fares as an every turn ML SP.
 
I just don't get it. By not signing anyone to long-term deals for these past 3-4 off seasons they are backing themselves into a corner. 2019 is the time to find out if any of our depth is worth counting on for the future.
 
Awful job of developing by this org and an even worse job of turning excess minor league talent into usable ML assets. The Odorizzi deal is the type I refer to. I'm not a huge Odor fan but we should be seeing more of these when we are in avoidance of giving out long-term FA deals.


Pretty sure that both the Santana and Hughes deals included control this season. Santana was 4 off seasons ago so maybe that doesn’t fit the qualifier. The Twins committed around 170 million for 14 years of Nolasco, Hughes and Santana with an option for 1 more year. The return was 3 good seasons. Lance Lynn was looking for 4 and 60 last year. Maybe we should have done that long term deal instead.

#65 killertwinfan

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 11:57 AM

With our luck dipping into "bargain pool"or any pool when it comes to pitching, money is better spent elsewhere.Good luck to our young arms!


#66 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 12:05 PM

 

Pretty sure that both the Santana and Hughes deals included control this season. Santana was 4 off seasons ago so maybe that doesn’t fit the qualifier. The Twins committed around 170 million for 14 years of Nolasco, Hughes and Santana with an option for 1 more year. The return was 3 good seasons. Lance Lynn was looking for 4 and 60 last year. Maybe we should have done that long term deal instead.

Twins got some good mileage out of that Santana deal. The original Hughes deal was good. Many foresaw that Nolasco would stink. We'll see how Lynn fares in Tx. The point is you have to take some long-term risks or you'll forever be facing what we could potentially be facing next off-season.

 

So yeah, Santana was signed in Dec of 2014. What long-term commitment has been made since? A couple one and an option and a 2 year Reed deal is about it.

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#67 howieramone2

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 12:06 PM

 

If we aren't going to sign a Keuchel or Gio Gonzalez type and we aren't, then we should be seeing what we have in these younger arms. Because sadly after 2019 we will be left with a rotation of Berrios, ?, ?, ?, ?.

 

Very likely Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda will all be gone before or after this season ends. We have awful future depth looking us square in the eyes.

I would say it's unlikely all 3 are gone. It is likely we can pencil in 2 of Thorpe, Mejia, or Romero. 2020 is still a long ways away. 


#68 Nick Nelson

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 12:29 PM

 

We have seen this happen too often with the Twins for me to welcome it.Either go get a player with upside (Sonny Gray!Sonny Gray!) or go in-house.  

I don't understand the mindset that it's preferable to trade a player and guarantee a roster spot (+ $9M) for Gray rather than sign one of the players listed here to a non-guaranteed deal. If Gray has upside then so do a number of these guys. He's been terrible in two of the last three seasons while averaging 130 innings.

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#69 howieramone2

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 12:40 PM

Picking up a starting pitcher on a non-guaranteed deal is a can't lose situation. Why not.

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#70 DocBauer

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 01:11 PM

Barring a trade for an absolute, top of the rotation arm...which is not going to happen at this point...I am 100% all in on who we have, auditioning the kids for now and 2020, etc.

But why on earth would you turn down a veteran arm on a MILB deal with no guarantees and no 40 man spot just to see if you get lucky?
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#71 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 01:29 PM

 

But why on earth would you turn down a veteran arm on a MILB deal with no guarantees and no 40 man spot just to see if you get lucky?

 

Ok, so let's say the Twins sign one of those guys to a minor league deal, and hope to get lucky.

 

Then what?


#72 ashbury

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 01:55 PM

Ok, so let's say the Twins sign one of those guys to a minor league deal, and hope to get lucky.

 

Then what?

I suppose the hope would be to use such luck to balance out certain kinds of bad luck. For instance a couple of starters go on the 60-day DL during spring, and only one of the young guys is deemed ready to face major league hitting full time. With spots on the 40-man thus available, you have someone you can plug in right away; if he does well, then you have an interesting decision to make in 60 days. I believe that would be the thinking.

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#73 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 02:22 PM

Point being, and not trying to be argumentative, but someone within the Twins org identified Anibal Sanchez last spring, Twins signed him, but yet for some reason the Twins released him when someone better came along (Lance Lynn!) and Sanchez ended up in Atlanta. 

 

tl;dr it's not as simple as it seems once you make the guy an offer, bring him into camp, etc. Though I am not opposed to signing one of those guys. 

 

 


#74 Channing1964

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 02:39 PM

Bucholz would be good...I like the idea of a couple veteran lefties to compete for that last spot and let Mejia have some company as a lefty starter. Miley, Gio Gonzalez , and Derek Holland would be good. I still think we are a back end bullpen guy away from anyone taking us seriously. If you could get Buch and one of those leftys on a minor league tryout deal I'd be happy with our rotation.

#75 Nick Nelson

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 02:54 PM

 

Point being, and not trying to be argumentative, but someone within the Twins org identified Anibal Sanchez last spring, Twins signed him, but yet for some reason the Twins released him when someone better came along (Lance Lynn!) and Sanchez ended up in Atlanta. 

 

tl;dr it's not as simple as it seems once you make the guy an offer, bring him into camp, etc. Though I am not opposed to signing one of those guys. 

Exactly. The Twins made a mistake by pivoting away from the reclamation project and going with the "buy (relatively) high" route instead. Had they just stuck with Sanchez they'd have ended up with a nice asset on their hands. But I'm not totally sure why that anomaly of a situation has any bearing on what we're talking about here.

 

If, say, Chris Tillman comes into camp healthy, and Johnson or Hefner help him solve a few things, he could very well look like the best option for the fifth spot. This is a guy who had a 3.99 ERA in the AL East from 2014-16, and is only 30. So, in that event, you push Mejia and Romero to the bullpen and roll with him, or he fills the spot of someone else who gets hurt. I'm not seeing what's overly complex about this.


#76 ahart10

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 02:57 PM


Thinking outside the box of a five man rotation. How about signing two of these FA; Bucholz & Pomeranz, and going with a FOUR day EIGHT man rotation.

1)Berrios/Gonzo
2)Gibson/Mejia
3)Odor/Bucky2
4)Pineda/Pommy

Leaving 4 or 5 spots for the bullpen

1)May
2)Rogers
3)Reed
4)Romero, longman, “starter” replacement
5)Hildy or your choice of RP with options

Each pair making 40 starts and combing for ~300 innings = 1200, leaving less than 300 for the remaining 5 bullpen spots. It would be nice to get that out of the top four mentioned. Twins could then utilize an opener(Hildy, Vasquez?) for the fifth man who can share a roster spot with a position player(Astudillo) who also has options.

#77 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 03:18 PM

 

I'm not seeing what's overly complex about this.

Ok, so in spring training Tillman comes in, looks fit, good attitude, but after a few spring training outings, isn't getting results. 

 

Then what?

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#78 Nick Nelson

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 04:59 PM

 

Ok, so in spring training Tillman comes in, looks fit, good attitude, but after a few spring training outings, isn't getting results. 

 

Then what?

Then you give him the option to head to Triple-A, or opt-out and become a free agent again. These kinds of arrangements take place almost every spring. (IF you don't need him anyway because others aren't ready/healthy.)

 

It's a game of musical chairs and someone like Tillman doesn't have a ton of leverage. Compared to other destinations, Minnesota is an attractive destination. No one has a firm grasp on the Twins' final rotation spot, and Pineda is penciled in despite throwing zero MLB innings last year.  

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#79 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 05:15 PM

 

Picking up a starting pitcher on a non-guaranteed deal is a can't lose situation. Why not.

To me the downside is these guys pitch to their career mediocreness and tie up a roster spot. In the meantime we still don't know what we have in the Stewart's and Gonsalves's.

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#80 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 05:18 PM

I also doubt that Clay Buchholtz is willing to sign an milb deal at this point either. 

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