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Article: Spending the Twins' Excess Cash

minnesota twins cody allen brad brach dallas keuchel miguel sano
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#21 howieramone2

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 12:51 PM

Manny and Harper are going to large market teams. When a mid-market team pretends they can play with the big boys bad things happen. Think Cano and Greinke.

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#22 FargoFanMan

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 02:28 PM

Manny and Harper are going to large market teams. When a mid-market team pretends they can play with the big boys bad things happen. Think Cano and Greinke.

The Cano that was 30+ years old and still delivered 3 above solid years in Seattle? Are talking about the 29 year old Grienke that rivaled only his own teammate in LA at a modest 20M+. Or is it the 32 year old Grienke that has fared pretty damn well for his age it’s just the albatross annual salary that may be a bit much for anyone not named Kershaw? These two guys are I believe the exception and not the rule when it comes to FA’s. I’m talking about a guy who is 26. Plays 160+ games a year. Without injury is gonna put up at least 280/330/450. Embraces being the face of a franchise. Plays stellar 3rd base and very solid SS. Of course that is gonna cost you money. After 4 years and it’s not a fit then you trade him. He’s only 30 then if there’s not already an opt out somewhere in there. This guy has at least 4 more prime years barring major injury which is covered by an insurance I’m sure. If not this guy though then who? That’s my question. The answer? Nobody. Harpers close but injury prone and doesn’t provide the glove. I’d pay Manny a front loaded contract maybe in the 35-40M range over the first 5 of 10 years with a few opt outs. Then you have something to build around and he’s instantly the most recognized face of Minnesota sports and more. Who’s next? A retired Mauer? Parise? Guys who are either retired or washed up?
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#23 spycake

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 02:31 PM

 

Manny and Harper are going to large market teams. When a mid-market team pretends they can play with the big boys bad things happen. Think Cano and Greinke.

I'm not so sure the Cano and Greinke signings count as "bad things" just because their teams have expressed a desire to get out of the back ends of the contracts. Every team wants to get out of the back ends of contracts if they can, and at least Cano's and Greinke's performances have made that somewhat feasible for their respective clubs -- they've gotten good production out of both to date.

 

I'm also not sure how you define "mid-market" but if you include Seattle and Arizona, there are probably other examples too. Washington signing Scherzer, Texas signing A-Rod -- both of those turned out great in terms of player performance/value. There have been bad deals too -- Detroit signing Fielder (although they got out of some of it), Baltimore signing Chris Davis, Washington signing Werth, Colorado signing Hampton -- but those turned out bad because the players/terms turned out bad, not because of the team's market.

 

Obviously a big market team can better absorb a contract if a player under-performs, but if the Twins think Harper and Machado project like A-Rod or Cano type talents at age 25, they probably shouldn't be afraid to offer up a big deal for them. (Keep in mind Cano's 10 year contract would be over now if he had signed it at the same age as Harper and Machado are now.)

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#24 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 03:18 PM

Since they have no money guaranteed beyond 2019 other than arb players, I'd like to see a Nolan Arenado signing next off season. A far superior "super star" imo to Manny and Bryce. 

 

I also would have liked to see Grandal, especially on a 1 year deal like he signed. Some much better bull pen moves than we have seen thus far would have been nice to see too. Maybe the price on Kimbrel tumbles and we see him here yet.

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#25 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 04:05 PM

I still like to see them add a starter and a reliever, and they will likely add the latter.

Maybe the smart play here is to wait until the deadline and if they are in it, make substantial additions.

The point being is that there are several prospects that either need to be traded before they lose their value and/or become minor league free agents


Not adding players makes it a lot less likely they will be in it at the deadline. It's a self fulfilling prophecy.... When they sell off, they'll say they just weren't quite good enough....
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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 04:07 PM

Manny and Harper are going to large market teams. When a mid-market team pretends they can play with the big boys bad things happen. Think Cano and Greinke.


Cano has more than earned his money. It was a lot of bad decisions around him that hurt. Also, Houston becoming awesome fast. And LA falling into Trout.
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#27 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 04:20 PM

Just sign Allen and call it an offseason.
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#28 FargoFanMan

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 04:56 PM

Cano has more than earned his money. It was a lot of bad decisions around him that hurt. Also, Houston becoming awesome fast. And LA falling into Trout.

Oooops! Oh look. Mike Trout!
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#29 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 06:52 PM

The Cano that was 30+ years old and still delivered 3 above solid years in Seattle? Are talking about the 29 year old Grienke that rivaled only his own teammate in LA at a modest 20M+. Or is it the 32 year old Grienke that has fared pretty damn well for his age it’s just the albatross annual salary that may be a bit much for anyone not named Kershaw? These two guys are I believe the exception and not the rule when it comes to FA’s. I’m talking about a guy who is 26. Plays 160+ games a year. Without injury is gonna put up at least 280/330/450. Embraces being the face of a franchise. Plays stellar 3rd base and very solid SS. Of course that is gonna cost you money. After 4 years and it’s not a fit then you trade him. He’s only 30 then if there’s not already an opt out somewhere in there. This guy has at least 4 more prime years barring major injury which is covered by an insurance I’m sure. If not this guy though then who? That’s my question. The answer? Nobody. Harpers close but injury prone and doesn’t provide the glove. I’d pay Manny a front loaded contract maybe in the 35-40M range over the first 5 of 10 years with a few opt outs. Then you have something to build around and he’s instantly the most recognized face of Minnesota sports and more. Who’s next? A retired Mauer? Parise? Guys who are either retired or washed up?


The Twins don't have payroll room to front load that deal.
No BamTech money this year, max payroll mandate is likely $103-106.

You can say there is no salary cap, but we have to deal in reality, not "coulds" or "shoulds". The FO has a hard payroll budget, whether we like it or not.
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#30 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 07:41 PM

 

 

. Who’s the face of this franchise right now? Anybody? Who?

 

 

 

And the answer is (drum-roll please) Willians Astudillo.

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#31 caninatl04

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 08:59 AM

They received $50 million from the sale of BamTech last year. They spend roughly 50% on payroll, so $25 million.
They will open somewhere around $25 million less than last year.


Sorry for being dumb, but who is "they"?

#32 caninatl04

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 09:05 AM

100 Mil is the Twins sweet spot.I don't see them going much past that number.Especially with a team where it is hard to determine what players will step up or stay bad and this team full of those types of players.Player performance is anyone's best guess so I don't see the FO spending just to spend. 
 
I believe they have a plan but I don't think it includes spending a lot of money this year.As best I can tell they are still looking for a core.Until they find that it is hard to move forward with any certainty.So I don't see them breaking the bank this year but that is just my opinion.


You raise a very interesting point. The assumption is that the White Sox, the Royals and the Tigers will not be very good in '19. But, like the Twins they are, as you wrote, looking to build on a core. The question is whether the Twins' "wait and see" attitude in '19 with a drive for the division in '20 or even '21 will be eclipsed by those three teams as they advance their minor leaguers.
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#33 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 09:37 AM

Sorry for being dumb, but who is "they"?


They are the Twins, sorry.

#34 Dman

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 10:57 AM

 

You raise a very interesting point. The assumption is that the White Sox, the Royals and the Tigers will not be very good in '19. But, like the Twins they are, as you wrote, looking to build on a core. The question is whether the Twins' "wait and see" attitude in '19 with a drive for the division in '20 or even '21 will be eclipsed by those three teams as they advance their minor leaguers.

 

Yeah I think the division gets a lot more competitive in 20 and 21.Having our young core play poorly and not a lot of young high end pitching talent means we might be waiting for wave two which most likely arrives in 2021 and 2022.The longer we wait the better our rivals get as well.The thing is we still have to have a young core before we can plug the weak spots with vets.I guess I hope our talent and injury luck works out better than the other guys otherwise we will be good but not good enough to make the playoffs.


#35 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 11 January 2019 - 02:34 PM

 

You raise a very interesting point. The assumption is that the White Sox, the Royals and the Tigers will not be very good in '19. But, like the Twins they are, as you wrote, looking to build on a core. The question is whether the Twins' "wait and see" attitude in '19 with a drive for the division in '20 or even '21 will be eclipsed by those three teams as they advance their minor leaguers.

 

Almost gua-ran-fricken-teed. You think Chicago is gonna sit on their hands when they are ready? They have a decent season this coming season they will go out and sign or trade for the best pitcher and position player out there. Twins should be stacking up 25-30 year old players with high end talent right now. Instead they are looking dumpster and old boys on 1 year deals. 

 

Like it or not, the Twins are gonna still hinge on Buxton and Sano. Don't expect anything out of the A ball wonder kids either for another 2-3 years either. They just won't be impact players until then if they are at all. You've seen what guys coming up through our system do. It takes a few years for them to get acclimated no matter the talent level. Our Minor league system just hasn't been any good at preparing them. Let's hope at least that part of the organization is changing, if nothing else. 

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#36 Channing1964

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 06:25 PM

Id like to see us take a run at Marwin Gonzalez. Having him on the roster means you can keep 13 pitchers, Garver, Astudillo, and Austin on the bench.(okay not Astudillo) If Marwin plays every day, and he should, Cron, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Schoop, and Polanco could each get one day off a week. Use the restf of the money for a veteran lefty starter and a proven closer and our payroll is about 120 million.

#37 Doomtints

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:35 AM

 

I wish everyone would stop assuming Cleveland is starting to backslide.

 

They are "backsliding" but they have a long way to fall to be with the rest of the division. They'll have little trouble next year until the playoffs.


#38 old nurse

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:42 AM

 

Sorry for being dumb, but who is "they"?

Every major league team got this amount of money


#39 FargoFanMan

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:39 PM

If we’re not spending cash then why are we not making deals? Adding prospects? Anything? We’re caught in the middle right now which is almost worse than rebuilding. Would the braves want Kepler? They have pitching prospects galore. Kepler and someone for a prospect or two. Maybe Teheran and Wright? Or someone else.

#40 spycake

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:41 PM

Who’s the face of this franchise right now? Anybody? Who?

  

And the answer is (drum-roll please) Willians Astudillo.


Astudillo is the face *and* the body of the franchise right now. Also, the hair.
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