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Article: Mailbox: Openers, Trading Buxton, Kirilloff’s Debut

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#21 Jacks02

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:40 AM

 

Doesn't matter how Sano looks in photos if he thinks fastball when a curve is coming.

 

Donuts on the outside corner get him every time.

 

There is no diet for that.

 

It may not help him hit a curveball, but it should help him stay at 3B.

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#22 Tom Froemming

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:54 AM

 

There's really only 2 ways to go about this. Either spend only money to fix this unit, or trade prospects in July. Since there's no ambition to trade prospects, I don't see any other way to improve the bullpen. I don't think there are enough internal options who will be good enough for the MLB team in 2019.

My main point is top dollar doesn't necessarily mean you're getting top results in the bullpen market. I agree that you do have to address the bullpen one way or another. I don't love the idea of crossing your fingers that Moya/Vasquez/Curtiss blossoms or you can successfully convert Romero or another starter. If that happens, great! But you shouldn't be banking on it.

 

I do feel the Twins have enough depth in the system to trade some prospects for an established reliever who has multiple years of team control and there's no reason to think you couldn't pull off a trade over the offseason. I'm thinking maybe like a Mychal Givens or Archie Bradley type.

 

As far as free agency goes, consider this:

 

2017-18 ERA

2.72 Adam Warren

3.03 Oliver Perez

3.21 Hunter Strickland

3.38 Brad Brach

3.43 Justin Wilson

3.50 Adam Ottavino

3.82 Cody Allen

 

2017-18 FIP

2.79 Oliver Perez

3.45 Adam Warren

3.51 Justin Wilson

3.63 Brad Brach

3.72 Adam Ottavino

3.87 Cody Allen

3.97 Hunter Strickland

 

Despite those numbers, I think the Twins signing Ottavino and Allen to nice multi-year deals would garner a ton more excitement than if they nabbed say Warren and Perez or Brach and Wilson on modest one-year deals.

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#23 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 11:12 AM

Kirloff will most likely become a first baseman if Rooker does not make it and Sano can stay at third. Worst case is he becomes a corner outfielder with Kepler in center and Buxton as the 4th outfielder.
Not this year, but can see the Twins move an outfielder for relief pitching (or starting if the price is right).


Kiriloff is a pretty solid defensive corner outfielder. I'd be surprised if they move him to first base.
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#24 Canizaro's Ghost

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 12:55 PM

"It doesn't make sense to overspend on relief pitchers."Man, some Twins fans/writers have Stockholm Syndrome. The Twins ownership can certainly afford to spend more than they currently do, and there is no cap in baseball so there is no such thing as overspending, IMO. 

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#25 mikelink45

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 01:21 PM

The problem with signing relief pitchers is that overall the performance is erratic and the use that gives great stats one year can mean a down year that follows.One of the problems, and it is not Molitor' problem, is that the new extreme use of relievers has not been matched with a good strategy for when and how often to use, and when to rest. We just guess at that.So the relievers perform and under-perform regularly.I suspect that Reed will be what we were signing this year, but his value was built in an over use year. 

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#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 02:22 PM

My main point is top dollar doesn't necessarily mean you're getting top results in the bullpen market. I agree that you do have to address the bullpen one way or another. I don't love the idea of crossing your fingers that Moya/Vasquez/Curtiss blossoms or you can successfully convert Romero or another starter. If that happens, great! But you shouldn't be banking on it.

I do feel the Twins have enough depth in the system to trade some prospects for an established reliever who has multiple years of team control and there's no reason to think you couldn't pull off a trade over the offseason. I'm thinking maybe like a Mychal Givens or Archie Bradley type.

As far as free agency goes, consider this:

2017-18 ERA
2.72 Adam Warren
3.03 Oliver Perez
3.21 Hunter Strickland
3.38 Brad Brach
3.43 Justin Wilson
3.50 Adam Ottavino
3.82 Cody Allen

2017-18 FIP
2.79 Oliver Perez
3.45 Adam Warren
3.51 Justin Wilson
3.63 Brad Brach
3.72 Adam Ottavino
3.87 Cody Allen
3.97 Hunter Strickland

Despite those numbers, I think the Twins signing Ottavino and Allen to nice multi-year deals would garner a ton more excitement than if they nabbed say Warren and Perez or Brach and Wilson on modest one-year deals.

I agree with mostly all of this. I also don't want to rely on the young players to step up right away and also convert Romero to the bullpen just because they don't have better options.

I also agree there is depth to make trades, a drum I've been beating all winter. However, there doesn't seem to be any urgency from Falvine to trade from their riches in the minors.

I don't doubt that there are bargains to be found in FA, and some top money players won't live up to their contract. As a fan I can't confidently say player X is going to have his best season ever. Maybe the Twins do. What you do get for a higher price tag is a player with a better track record, a small variance between their best and worst seasons, and better odds they will produce good results.

Take Oliver Perez for example. Near the top of the list in your sample, right? The discrepancy in ERA in just 2 seasons is over 3 runs. Is he a 1.39 ERA pitcher like 2018 or a 4.64 ERA pitcher like 2017? Those are the difficult decisions Falvey has to make when he's shopping in the bargain bin.

Edited by Vanimal46, 08 January 2019 - 02:22 PM.

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#27 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 02:35 PM

Listed below is the fWAR for the top 8 RPs in terms of AAV.

Jansen 2017 ------- 3.2
Jansen 2018 -------- .4
Melancon 2017 ----- .4
Melancon 2018 ----- .3
W. Davis 2018 ----- .9
Chapman 2017 --- 1.6
Chapman 2017 --- 1.9
Britton 2017 ------ .6
Britton 2017 ------ .1
A Miller 2017 ----- 2.4
A Miller 2017 ----- .4
Robertson 2016 -- .9
Robertson 2016 -- 1.9
Robertson 2016 -- 1.5
Nicasio 2017 ----- 1.5
Nicasio 2017 ----- .8

Average WAR ---- 1.175
1 of 16 seasons over 2.5 WAR
2 of 16 seasons over 2.0 WAR
2 of 16 seasons over 2.0 WAR
5 of 16 seasons over 1.5 WAR

Listed below is the fWAR for this years top free agent RPs in terms of AAV.

Britton ---- 0.6 / 0.1
Robertson - 1.9 / 1.5
Miller ------ 2.4 / 0.4
Familia ---- 0.3 / 1.7
Joe Kelly -- 0.7 / 0.7
Herrera -- 0.1 / 0.4

Average WAR for the past two years = .9
1 of 12 seasons with a WAR of 2+
Listed below are the 2018 top RPs in terms of fWAR
1 - Blake Treinen
2 - Edwin Diaz
3 - Josh Hader
4 - Jose Leclerc
5 - Craig Stammen
6 - Felipe Vazquez
7 - Adam Ottavino
8 - Jose Alvarado
9 - Will Smith
10 - Aroldis Chapman
11 - Taylor Rogers
12 - Ryan Pressly
13 - Joakim Soria
14 - Jeremy Jeffress
15 - Dellin Betances
16 - Jeurys Familia
17 - Kirby Yates
18 - Chad Green
19 - Tony Watson
20 - Mychal Givens


Good post. What's the projected WAR for the AAA guys that would be on those teams instead of them?
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#28 Tom Froemming

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 03:02 PM

 

What you do get for a higher price tag is a player with a better track record, a small variance between their best and worst seasons, and better odds they will produce good results.

Take Oliver Perez for example. Near the top of the list in your sample, right? The discrepancy in ERA in just 2 seasons is over 3 runs. Is he a 1.39 ERA pitcher like 2018 or a 4.64 ERA pitcher like 2017? Those are the difficult decisions Falvey has to make when he's shopping in the bargain bin.

 

What about Adam Ottavino? Even ignoring all the health problems he's had, the guy just posted a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) in 2017. Brad Brach has never posted an ERA over 3.78 (which came is rookie season) and his FIP hasn't been over 3.90 in the five seasons since leaving San Diego.

 

Brach is also a bit younger than Ottavino, yet Otto was projected to get 3$30MM and Brach 2/$12MM. 

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#29 Major League Ready

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 03:07 PM

 

Good post. What's the projected WAR for the AAA guys that would be on those teams instead of them?

 

Why are the only options the very highest AAV RPs or AAA players?The whole point of presenting the facts is to illustrate the very highest paid RPs have not been the most effective.Should the goal not be to follow the most effective practices for a mid market team?

Edited by Major League Ready, 08 January 2019 - 03:25 PM.


#30 Vanimal46

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 03:38 PM

What about Adam Ottavino? Even ignoring all the health problems he's had, the guy just posted a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) in 2017. Brad Brach has never posted an ERA over 3.78 (which came is rookie season) and his FIP hasn't been over 3.90 in the five seasons since leaving San Diego.

Brach is also a bit younger than Ottavino, yet Otto was projected to get 3$30MM and Brach 2/$12MM.


Couldn't tell ya. Projections are just that until they sign the contract. From the surface level view Otto is projected too high, Brach too low.

#31 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 03:52 PM

If I’m reading into Cruz’s club option correctly, I’m guessing the length of his Twins career really depends on how Kirilloff (Rooker too) progresses, because if AK hits anthing like like did last year he’ll be our starting RFer in 2020. And if that’s the case, then Kepler will likely move to LF (barring a Buxton meltdown) and Rosario will replace Cruz as our DH (OF/2B).

#32 dgwills

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:20 PM

Man.........You just had to mention Aaron Hicks.  Come on bro. That's salt in the wound. Might as well mention how the Twins gave up on David Ortiz to save a few bucks in arbitration.


#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:55 PM

Why are the only options the very highest AAV RPs or AAA players? The whole point of presenting the facts is to illustrate the very highest paid RPs have not been the most effective. Should the goal not be to follow the most effective practices for a mid market team?


What's the alternative you are suggesting? I must have misunderstood.

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#34 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 06:51 PM

If I’m reading into Cruz’s club option correctly, I’m guessing the length of his Twins career really depends on how Kirilloff (Rooker too) progresses, because if AK hits anthing like like did last year he’ll be our starting RFer in 2020. And if that’s the case, then Kepler will likely move to LF (barring a Buxton meltdown) and Rosario will replace Cruz as our DH (OF/2B).


I think the Twins would trade one of Kepler or Rosario once AK is ready.
Rosario isn't a great fielder, but he's far too competent to waste at DH- where his bat wouldn't be great to start with.

#35 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 06:54 PM

What's the alternative you are suggesting? I must have misunderstood.


Well there are middle and lower priced free agents, who may perform just as well, or better than those few top priced ones. Especially at relief pitching, it appears.

#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:10 PM

Well there are middle and lower priced free agents, who may perform just as well, or better than those few top priced ones. Especially at relief pitching, it appears.


Of course, you have to pick the right ones.

So, pocket the money? I don't get why fans love owners making money, but call players greedy.
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#37 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:17 PM

Of course, you have to pick the right ones.

So, pocket the money? I don't get why fans love owners making money, but call players greedy.


So pick the right ones. That IS an option.
Wanting a worse, but more expensive player, just to avoid padding the owner's pocketbook takes being pro-labor to an unhealthy level, IMO.
Spend the money, yes, I'm not pro ownership, but there is a compelling argument that relief pitching may not be the smart place to do it.
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#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:19 PM

So pick the right ones. That IS an option.
Wanting a worse, but more expensive player, just to avoid padding the owner's pocketbook takes being pro-labor to an unhealthy level, IMO.
Spend the money, yes, I'm not pro ownership, but there is a compelling argument that relief pitching may not be the smart place to do it.


Fair. Of course, others will say old players aren't the right place, nor are starting pitchers, nor any deal more than two or three years. That doesn't leave much....

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#39 BBAM

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Posted 09 January 2019 - 06:53 AM

 

"It doesn’t make sense to overspend on relief pitchers......."

 

Definitely opinion and not fact. In fact....... recent (the last decade) post season runs that are successful would beg loudly to differ.

We can spend.Pay a high quality pitcher what they are worth.So sick of bargain shopping!


#40 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 January 2019 - 07:29 AM

 

I agree with mostly all of this. I also don't want to rely on the young players to step up right away and also convert Romero to the bullpen just because they don't have better options.

I also agree there is depth to make trades, a drum I've been beating all winter. However, there doesn't seem to be any urgency from Falvine to trade from their riches in the minors.

I don't doubt that there are bargains to be found in FA, and some top money players won't live up to their contract. As a fan I can't confidently say player X is going to have his best season ever. Maybe the Twins do. What you do get for a higher price tag is a player with a better track record, a small variance between their best and worst seasons, and better odds they will produce good results.

Take Oliver Perez for example. Near the top of the list in your sample, right? The discrepancy in ERA in just 2 seasons is over 3 runs. Is he a 1.39 ERA pitcher like 2018 or a 4.64 ERA pitcher like 2017? Those are the difficult decisions Falvey has to make when he's shopping in the bargain bin.

It sounds like the new analytic is figuring out the correlation on which FA pitchers are more likely to live up to those contracts and target them...