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buxton batting order opening day
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#41 ashbury

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 08:38 AM

 

While some people have come close, I haven’t yet seen the correct answer, which is:

Buxton
Polanco
Sano
Cruz
Rosario
Cron
Kepler
Schoop
Castro

Buxton leads off the season with a bunt for a hit, Sano hits a two-run homer.

Polanco is always retired in the first inning? That can't be the correct answer. :)

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#42 rv78

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 08:44 AM

 

While some people have come close, I haven’t yet seen the correct answer, which is:

Buxton
Polanco
Sano
Cruz
Rosario
Cron
Kepler
Schoop
Castro

Buxton leads off the season with a bunt for a hit, Sano hits a two-run homer.

Chances are better that Polonco leads off the season with a hit and Cruz hits a 2 run homer.

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#43 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 08:44 AM

Polanco is always retired in the first inning? That can't be the correct answer. :)


I forgot to mention, Buxton is doubled home by Polanco and THEN Sano hits the two-run homer.
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#44 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 08:46 AM

Chances are better that Polonco leads off the season with a hit and Cruz hits a 2 run homer.


No, that’s not what happens.

(And who is this Polonco fellow of whom you speak?)

#45 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 09:49 AM

 

While some people have come close, I haven’t yet seen the correct answer, which is:

Buxton
Polanco
Sano
Cruz
Rosario
Cron
Kepler
Schoop
Castro

Buxton leads off the season with a bunt for a hit, Sano hits a two-run homer.

Sano's 2 run homer is after a Polanco single to right field, scoring Buck.

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#46 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 09:50 AM

Sano's 2 run homer is after a Polanco single to right field, scoring Buck.


I was going to say the same thing...scores on a single to right-center. ;-)
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#47 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 09:58 AM

 

As things now stand, this is a tough exercise. The mostlogical leadoff hitter and the most alogical hitter to hit between Rosario at number two and Cruz at number four is the same guy, Polanco. We're basically short one spot regardless of which place you put him. There isn't another logical leadoff hitter on the roster and you can't leadoff a guy like Kepler because he frankly can't hit like even an average major league outfielder. you have to hide him if you want to keep them in because of his defense. I also don't see how you can put a guy like Schoop near the top of the order because he will have an OPP of .310 or less if past is prologue, so he's got to hit 7th or 8th.There's no way you can lead out Buxton until he shows that he can hit his weight during the regular season. A good spring training is nowhere near enough for me given how poorly he's hit in the past. He's got to start out at number 9. The problem is we've got a lot of guys who could hit in the 5 through 7 spots, more than two or deserve to have no higher than 8 or 9, but not enough guys to hit the 1 through 4 spots.

 

I think the two ways to do this are:

 

Polanco SS

RosarioLF

Cruz DH

Sano3B

CaveRF

Cron 1B

GarverC

Schoop 2B

BuxtonCF

 

I look at that and I see a lot of strikeouts between the number 4 and 9 spots, and I wonder if we can trust Sano it in the middle of the order. Here's the other way I think it might work:

 

Polanco SS

Cron 1B

RosarioLF

Cruz DH

CaveRF

Sano3B

GarverC

Schoop2B

Buxton CF 

 

For those of you that prefer Kepler to Cave, I think you can basically just change out the names or move Kepler to number 8 the order (where he should bat based on his past performance IF he starts) and move everyone else up one. Our lack of high OBP guys makes this difficult exercise.

I see a lot of reasons to use your second lineup. Thanks.


#48 DocBauer

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 11:28 AM

Polanco (S)
Cron ®
Cruz ®
Rosario (L)
Sano ®
Kepler (L)
Garver ®
Schoop ®
Buxton ®
 
Cron batted 2nd quite a bit last year and this team looks to be following TB's lead in a lot of areas. Schoop probably swaps with the catcher spot when Casto plays, but with only two regular lefties in the lineup I'd sandwich them around Sano to try to limit the pitching changes to the flawed but powerful hitter.


I admit to not following the Rays too closely. I was unaware Cron hit in the 2 hole often. I wonder at the reasoning. Power but not a great OB, was this to sandwich him between two other guys with better OB? I agree Rocco could carry on a similar idea now that he's in charge. And if so, your lineup makes sense. And I do like Kepler/Cave lower in the order to break up RH/LH batters and deepen the lineup more.
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#49 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 12:04 PM

Willians Astudillo.


Astudillo walks at a 2% clip, he can't bat at the top of the order.

#50 Sconnie

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 12:48 PM

Astudillo walks at a 2% clip, he can't bat at the top of the order.

Astudillio’s OBP last year was .371 and seemingly inline with minor league rate.

Buxton who seems to be the consensus lead off man .183 OBP in his injury plagued season, .285 career OBP and his 2017 season where break thru was shouted from the roof tops was .314.

Polanco the other lead off contender had 2018 OBP .345 and career .329

Why can’t a guy who gets on base 37% of the time lead off? Why do we really care how he gets there?

He never strikes out. Ever. Isn’t that job number one of the lead off man is to get on base?

Edited by Sconnie, 05 January 2019 - 12:51 PM.

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#51 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 01:05 PM

 

Astudillo walks at a 2% clip, he can't bat at the top of the order.

Astudillo runs at a 2% clip also.

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#52 ashbury

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 01:47 PM

Astudillo runs at a 2% clip also.

Nonsense. Here is video from that iconic base-running play he made in 2018:

 

 

 

 

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#53 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 02:31 PM

Astudillio’s OBP last year was .371 and seemingly inline with minor league rate.

Buxton who seems to be the consensus lead off man .183 OBP in his injury plagued season, .285 career OBP and his 2017 season where break thru was shouted from the roof tops was .314.

Polanco the other lead off contender had 2018 OBP .345 and career .329

Why can’t a guy who gets on base 37% of the time lead off? Why do we really care how he gets there?

He never strikes out. Ever. Isn’t that job number one of the lead off man is to get on base?


That OBP is only sustainable if you think he can continue to hit .355, with a .341 babip.
I'm skeptical that he can continue anywhere near that pace.
Even if he's a .300 hitter, which is really good, his OBP drops to .316.
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#54 oregontwin

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 02:52 PM

 

OBP Last Year / OBP Career
1 Polanco 345 329
2 Cruz 342 342
3 Rosario 323 312
4 Sano 281 336
5 Cron 323 311
6 Kepler 319 313
7 Schoop 266 294
8 Buxton 183 285
9 Castro 257 311

 

This line-up assumes Sano resembles himself before the leg injury. Buxton needs to earn his way to the top of the order during the regular season. The reason I put Cruz in #2 spot is because I don't want anyone hitting in the 2 hole with a below average OBP(MLB avg is 320). This also makes for a nice Right/Left balance.

 

I like this, but would swap Cruz and Rosario.

 

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#55 jorgenswest

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 02:53 PM

My first reaction is that I wouldn’t want Astudillo batting directly after Buxton. Astudillo doesn’t need many pitches to get the ball in play making it difficult to steal second.

On the other hand when Buxton is on base he puts pressure on the defense every time the ball is put in play which Astudillo dies frequently.
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#56 TheLeviathan

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 02:54 PM

Astudillo's hitting profile defies a lot of norms.I'm not sure he isn't an ideal guy to hit second.

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#57 Sconnie

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 03:24 PM

That OBP is only sustainable if you think he can continue to hit .355, with a .341 babip.
I'm skeptical that he can continue anywhere near that pace.
Even if he's a .300 hitter, which is really good, his OBP drops to .316.

agreed, but Rod Carew’s career Babip over 17 seasons was .359.

.355 BA with a .341 BABIP has happened before over sustained periods for a handful of players. Not likely for La Tortuga, not impossible either.

Edited by Sconnie, 05 January 2019 - 03:24 PM.


#58 DrNeau

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 08:53 PM

1. CF Buxton
2. SS Polanco
3. LF Rosario
4. DH Cruz
5. 1B Cron
6. 3B Sano
7. RF Austin
8. 2B Schoop
9. C Garver

Edited by DrNeau, 05 January 2019 - 08:53 PM.

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#59 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 03:20 PM

I admit to not following the Rays too closely. I was unaware Cron hit in the 2 hole often. I wonder at the reasoning. Power but not a great OB, was this to sandwich him between two other guys with better OB? I agree Rocco could carry on a similar idea now that he's in charge. And if so, your lineup makes sense. And I do like Kepler/Cave lower in the order to break up RH/LH batters and deepen the lineup more.


Yeah I didn’t follow them either. I just checked the TB players lineup splits in BBR to play this game. Cron almost always batted 2nd or 4th.

#60 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 04:22 PM

The fact that Cron hit 2 for TB last year makes picking him up make even more sense. We needed somebody there. Buxton has to start in the #9 hole and stay there until he produces consistent reults or we're looking at another flame out. I lke the second of the two I posted earlier even better now:

 

Polanco SS

Cron 1B

Rosario LF

Cruz DH

Sano 3B

Cave/Kepler RF

Garver/Castro C

Schoop 2B

Buxton CF

 

Adrianza just steps in the spot where Schoop or Polanco hits when he plays. When Cruz sits so we can play all 4 OFs with one as the DH, Cron and Rosario switch and everyone drops down one with Garver in between Cave and Kepler. I'd love to also have Austidillo because he can play and hit in any spot except maybe 3 or 4. Hard to see a spot for Austin unless there's an injury, hope he clears so we can have him available in AAA.  

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