Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Article: The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2019: Part 2 (11-15)

stephen gonsalves miguel sano kyle gibson trevor may mitch garver
  • Please log in to reply
80 replies to this topic

#21 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 10,074 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:14 AM

Was this list prepared by you before or after Nelson Cruz was signed? I would submit that Nelson Cruz coming to the Twins has made Sano 8 spots higher, all the way up to #6 on my list. Cruz is going to be immensely helpful to Miguel Sano.

Really good point. I'm sure those two have met and interacted before now, if not necessarily as teammates. We'll see if Cruz can make a difference.

#22 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 3,789 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:35 AM

 

Was this list prepared by you before or after Nelson Cruz was signed? I would submit that Nelson Cruz coming to the Twins has made Sano 8 spots higher, all the way up to #6 on my list. Cruz is going to be immensely helpful to Miguel Sano.

Before, and a good point. Once this list is published completely, I think it'll be interesting to discuss how Cruz's presence may alter some of the other rankings (not to mention where he'd place).

 

 

Interesting concept to create a list for, thanks for starting this discussion!

 

Agreed that Sano's recent track record has been bad, but his upside makes him much more valuable than any of the others. My definition of the value of an asset would be who you would keep if you had to choose, and the choice would definitely be Sano (assuming the Twins don't suddenly get a conscience about off the field issues). And I can't think of any different definition of value of an asset that would result in a different choice.

A reasonable take, to be sure. Sano's ranking is basically meant to reflect the enormous amount of risk attached to him as an asset now. I don't think he can succeed as a guy who strikes out almost 40% of the time and walks less than 10% of the time but that's become his reality. His health and durability are complete question marks. His defensive value is a mystery. 

 

The question isn't whether he'll turn things around and turn into a quality player. The question is whether he'll do it here. Right now he's got a long way to go and as I wrote, the clock is ticking.

 

For the record, I am personally a believer in Sano and I think he'll rejuvenate his status this year. I just don't think that can be counted on. I'm curious to hear why people feel differently.

 

 

 

Yeah,not at all sure to me how an oft injured May is rated ahead of a potential 40HR hitter in Sano either. I just don't get it.

I mean, the Twins just acquired an almost guaranteed 40-HR hitter, who was openly available, for nothing but $14m on a one-year deal. So we really need to ask ourselves how valuable that trait on its own is. 


#23 JLease

JLease

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Members
  • 488 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:39 AM

Man, I really hope concussions don't force Garver away from the plate. He's a terrific asset there and his bat plays so nicely. he's showing a nice combination of patience with a decent amount of pop. His positional flexibility is helpful to any roster, but if he can't catch any longer, it's a real loss.

 

i can't blame Nick for dropping Sano down to this level. It's fair to think that his upside should still rank him higher (he is only a year away from smacking 28 hrs in 114 games), but in 4 seasons he's never played 120 games in any of them. He's had 2 that were...not good. Last season was a disaster. At the same time...he's only 25 and it wouldn't take a whole lot for him to step back up as a premiere slugging 3B. he's an asset, but his value definitely has dropped pretty far and pretty fast.

 

I like May a lot, probably more that is warranted. He was terrific this season, but is it the dreaded SSS or a combo of him finally being healthy and figuring it out? I suppose this season is a prove it one, but I'm glad to have him in mix.

  • Nick Nelson likes this

#24 stringer bell

stringer bell

    In the Twilight of a Mediocre Career

  • Twins Mods
  • 8,409 posts
  • LocationElgin, MN

Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:58 AM

Sanó is much more replaceable than Garver unless he becomes the elite slugger we envisioned in his rookie year. How long does the team give him a spot on the field and in the lineup based on potential? At some point, it has to be basis of performance, and Miguel’s hasn’t been good since the first half of ‘17.

#25 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,935 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:06 AM

I love this exercise of trying to assess the present and future value of these players and the things that have to happen for that value to be realized or sustained.

 

A roster of players reminds me of a portfolio of startup companies, with all the unpredictability and all the volatility. You just can't really predict whether you have the next United Healthcare (Kirby Puckett) or if you're being a bit hoodwinked by early success like an Old County Buffets (Oswaldo Arcia). Or maybe we have a narcissistic entrepreneur who can't control his demons and takes us down with him (Delmon Young).

 

Snapshots indeed, lol.

  • Oldgoat_MN likes this

#26 strumdatjaguar

strumdatjaguar

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Members
  • 272 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:24 AM

I understand the collective frustration with Miguel Sano.Still this ranking is ridiculously low. He remains as one of the few potential superstars in theTwins system. This is a guy in a Home Run era of baseball, who could hit over 40 dingers on a yearly basis for 3 straight years or more. Granted, he could be confirmed disaster and done in two years as well. He clearly is a more valuable asset than Gibson., May and Garver - and several of the players yet to be higher on your list.Craaaaazy!

  • SF Twins Fan likes this

#27 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 6,996 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:05 PM

Before, and a good point. Once this list is published completely, I think it'll be interesting to discuss how Cruz's presence may alter some of the other rankings (not to mention where he'd place).


A reasonable take, to be sure. Sano's ranking is basically meant to reflect the enormous amount of risk attached to him as an asset now. I don't think he can succeed as a guy who strikes out almost 40% of the time and walks less than 10% of the time but that's become his reality. His health and durability are complete question marks. His defensive value is a mystery.

The question isn't whether he'll turn things around and turn into a quality player. The question is whether he'll do it here. Right now he's got a long way to go and as I wrote, the clock is ticking.

For the record, I am personally a believer in Sano and I think he'll rejuvenate his status this year. I just don't think that can be counted on. I'm curious to hear why people feel differently.



I mean, the Twins just acquired an almost guaranteed 40-HR hitter, who was openly available, for nothing but $14m on a one-year deal. So we really need to ask ourselves how valuable that trait on its own is.


There is no such thing as a 38 year old who is almost guaranteed to hit 20 HR's, let alone 40. That is why Cruz was signed for what he was.
If Cruz was 25 instead of 38, his contract would be much bigger.

#28 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 3,789 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:41 PM

 

There is no such thing as a 38 year old who is almost guaranteed to hit 20 HR's, let alone 40. That is why Cruz was signed for what he was.
If Cruz was 25 instead of 38, his contract would be much bigger.

Um, Cruz is a MUCH better bet to reach 20 or 40 home runs in either of the next two years than Sano at this point. That's not even debatable. And then Sano has one year of control remaining after that. 

 

Sano's age obviously does work in his favor but his trend line has been moving consistently downward for some time and he has established a new floor. 

  • Danchat, ChrisKnutson and caninatl04 like this

#29 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Members
  • 1,630 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:43 PM

Trevor May continues to be the most overrated player in the history of TD. Austin is starting to give him a run though.

  • SF Twins Fan, Tomj14 and sweetmusicviola16 like this

#30 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,185 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 01:08 PM

Um, Cruz is a MUCH better bet to reach 20 or 40 home runs in either of the next two years than Sano at this point. That's not even debatable. And then Sano has one year of control remaining after that. 
 
Sano's age obviously does work in his favor but his trend line has been moving consistently downward for some time and he has established a new floor.


Opinion or based on projection models?

#31 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 3,789 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 01:22 PM

 

Opinion or based on projection models?

Opinion, I guess, based on the fact that Cruz has averaged 40+ HR and been extremely durable the last 5 years while Sano has never hit more than 28 and never played 120 games in an MLB season. Fwiw, FanGraphs projects Cruz to hit 37 next year and Sano to hit 29 (which seems generous to me based on his broken plate approach and injury history). 

 

 

Trevor May continues to be the most overrated player in the history of TD. Austin is starting to give him a run though.

Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

 

 

  • Danchat, ChrisKnutson and caninatl04 like this

#32 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,185 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 01:35 PM

Sano is very tough to project. I also think he is more likely than others on the list to find himself in trouble off the field which will impact his play or his status to play on the field.

#33 drivlikejehu

drivlikejehu

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,952 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 01:56 PM

I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.

  • SF Twins Fan and sweetmusicviola16 like this

If you ain't got no haters, you ain't poppin'.


#34 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Members
  • 1,630 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 31 December 2018 - 01:59 PM

 

Opinion, I guess, based on the fact that Cruz has averaged 40+ HR and been extremely durable the last 5 years while Sano has never hit more than 28 and never played 120 games in an MLB season. Fwiw, FanGraphs projects Cruz to hit 37 next year and Sano to hit 29 (which seems generous to me based on his broken plate approach and injury history). 

 

 

Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

Until he dies, members are going to want him to go back to being a starter. He hasn't started in The Show since 2015. I watched every game in September. He pitched himself back into the mix, but no more than that. If the numbers show he is on par with the best relievers, look for different numbers. Off the top of my head, look at inherited runners.


#35 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 16,779 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 02:13 PM

 

I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.

 

Gonna need more popcorn now!

  • SF Twins Fan and sweetmusicviola16 like this

#36 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 3,789 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 02:46 PM

 

I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. 

 

Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year.

 

 

Until he dies, members are going to want him to go back to being a starter. He hasn't started in The Show since 2015. I watched every game in September. He pitched himself back into the mix, but no more than that. If the numbers show he is on par with the best relievers, look for different numbers. Off the top of my head, look at inherited runners.

People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP

 

When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else. 

  • ashbury, rghrbek and caninatl04 like this

#37 markos

markos

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,371 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 03:06 PM

 

Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

A few points on this:

1 - it is a relatively small sample of domination (~100 batters)

2 - 56% of the batters he faced were from KC, Det and Chi

3 - Relievers are pretty volatile year-over-year. 

4 - The early projections aren't buying a breakout.

  • howieramone2 and sweetmusicviola16 like this

#38 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,185 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 04:00 PM

I would only add that it really isn’t the relievers themselves or their ability that is volatile year to year. The inherit sample of any reliever is too small to be reliable and it is the variablility of a small sample that drives the perception of volatility.

This is important in our perception of Addison Reed. We see last year’s number and assume a drop off in skill but that may not be the case. We might have been seeing the 10th percentile results of a reliever his skill level.
  • PseudoSABR likes this

#39 sweetmusicviola16

sweetmusicviola16

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 190 posts

Posted 31 December 2018 - 04:19 PM

 

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. 

 

Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year.

 

 

People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP

 

When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else. 

My issue with May is in his 5 seasons as a Twin he has averaged a whopping 46 IP per season. Bottom line is he can't be counted on. Not to mention his almost 5 ERAwhen he has pitched.

 

May shouldn't even be Top 20 in our assets let alone #11.

  • howieramone2 and Tomj14 like this

#40 h2oface

h2oface

    Lifelong since '61

  • Members
  • 4,023 posts
  • LocationTralfamadore

Posted 31 December 2018 - 04:41 PM

 

Are you aware of how good he (Trevor May) was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

 

I guess this is an example where it subjectively fits to just speak of his recent small sample, than to use his not so attractive career stats....... and I agree. Brings better hope.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: stephen gonsalves, miguel sano, kyle gibson, trevor may, mitch garver