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2013... Any Chance?

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#1 kevinlillie

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 09:51 AM

Do we have ANY chance to be competitive next year? What do you think will happen in the offseason? I'm tired of watching crappy baseball. I was at the Twins game last week and all I could do was sit there and think 2 years ago, we were a playoff team...

#2 Nick Nelson

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 09:58 AM

Many people say no, I say yes. The lineup is where it needs to be and the bullpen is close. The question is, can Terry Ryan build a moderately decent rotation from the ground up in one offseason?

#3 kevinlillie

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:07 AM

I agree - the line up is great and the bullpen is decent. It all comes down to starting pitching... if TR can get 2 solid SP via trade or free agency, I think we have a shot, considering the AL Central isn't a strong division. I imagine we will resign Baker to an incentive based contract, but the only person I think is guaranteed to be in the rotation next year is Scott Diamond, hopefully as a back of the rotation pitcher.

#4 Winston Smith

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:17 AM

I often hear that it can't be Gardy's fault because he doesn't have good players to work with. Then we hear some of the same people say we're only a few players away from competing. How can both those be true?
The last two years we are 63 games under 500. The next worst team in the AL is the Mariners at 36 under. Logically it would seem that this team needs a lot more than a couple pieces to be a serious playoff team. Could they improve enough to hang around the Central for most of the season probably. But to be a serious playoff team I just can't see it.
Then the question is do you band aid a team together so you might hang around most of the season and if so does that set back a real rebuilding effort? It would seem to me you can't do both.

#5 Nick Nelson

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:26 AM

It would seem to me you can't do both.

Why not? How does signing 1 or 2 free agent starters and trading Morneau or Span for pitching help hinder your long-term rebuilding efforts?

#6 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:32 AM

The A's and Orioles are in the drivers seat for the Wild Cards this year with what could be argued are inferior players to what the Twins have now. The Twins could get back in contention, but is it possible to get a winning attitude when the current players/managers are the same?

Is it a coincedence the Orioles and A's bought into winning baseball AND they have new managers? It may not be fair to fire Gardenhire after giving him the most pathetic pitching staff in the history of the team, but in this day and age, rarely do teams go into two year slumps and suddenly come out of it without first having a major shakeup. Admittedly, TK did it, but he had the longest leash in all of professional sports and it took 8 years to do so. My feeling is the Twins cannot compete in 2013 and will look pretty much the same as we see them now. I'll bet 2014 will have a lot of new faces and optimism will abound though.

#7 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:41 AM

Of Course we have a chance in 2013 -- Signed Lloyd Christmas.

Actaully, Yes... We need pitching... Position Depth... Decent health and a good feeling to sustain us. If those three things are addressed... Yes... We have a chance.

#8 mike wants wins

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:49 AM

Any chance? Sure. Likely, no, not really. But we can always hope for substantial changes.

#9 Thegrin

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:09 AM

How about a 50/50 chance to be competitive ?

#10 Badsmerf

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:21 AM

Its possible. Gibson and Baker's contribution are the biggest questions going into the season. If the Twins can even get 1 quality pitcher and Baker/Gibson have positive contributions this team would be pretty decent. It certainly isn't out of this world for them to compete.

#11 gunnarthor

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:25 AM

I think Nick's right - we just need to improve the rotation. Here's an interesting stat that probably says nothing. The Twins position players as a team are 3rd in the AL in bWAR, behind the Yanks and Angels and 4th in fWAR behind those two and the Rangers.

Ryan did a good job improving the lineup and MI defense from where it was in 2011. I don't know how he'll improve the rotation. Frankly, I think we have a 6-7 guys who could all be #5 starters, none should be good for 20+ starts. (I still think Hendriks can turn into a good starter but it'll probably take him a few seasons to get there). I don't know how he gets a solid rotation. On the other hand, he only has to go from unbelievably bad to slightly below average for the Twins to be competitive.

#12 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:25 AM

Many people say no, I say yes. The lineup is where it needs to be and the bullpen is close. The question is, can Terry Ryan build a moderately decent rotation from the ground up in one offseason?


The lineup is league-average offensively and about average on defense as well. The bullpen has been good but there are soft spots that I think might get exposed worse in a real pennant race. If Ryan works hard and builds a "moderately decent" rotation, that also smacks of .500 ball. Where is the upside to push above that into actual contention? I don't see it. Even more is needed.

#13 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:30 AM

Of Course we have a chance in 2013 -- Signed Lloyd Christmas.


Gee, between Dumb and Dumber, and Alfred E. Neuman, you've got quite the roster of experts to turn to. :)

#14 Winston Smith

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:36 AM

It would seem to me you can't do both.

Why not? How does signing 1 or 2 free agent starters and trading Morneau or Span for pitching help hinder your long-term rebuilding efforts?

Ryan made it clear he wasn't signing any of the top free agent pitchers. Maybe he was blowing smoke.
Trading for pitching help? Maybe that can work but most teams aren't giving up decent pitching. However, I think it makes sense at this time to trade all of these guys that will bring back decent prospects, if that's possible, and go young. I don't think trading one guy will turn the team around. Of course maybe the guys we have won't bring back decent help and in that case we are stuck without spending for it.
Last and last seems to indicate that the present course isn't working.

#15 wavedog

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:40 AM

I think most of us thought last year was a fluke with many injuries and we would be back close to a .500 team this year. Then the entire starting rotation either was injured (Baker, Pavano) or stunk (Marquis, Liriano, Blackburn). If Baker and Gibson come back and pitch well and we sign another starting pitcher or two and Diamond comes close to his performance this year - we could have a decent season. In the Central that could mean contending. Overall though that may be a lot to expect with the recent injury history of this team. Another season like the last 2 and doing it the Twins Way will take on a whole new meaning.

#16 JB_Iowa

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:41 AM

Depends on what you are looking for. Do you define staying in the A.L. Central race until August as competitive? Then I suppose there is a chance (probably less than 30% though).

Is it staying in the A. L. Central race until September? Still probably a chance but less than 15% I would think. But then, I never discount the ability of other A.L. Central teams to implode.

Being truly competitive in the sense of being able to compete with the best teams in the league? Less than 5% (maybe less than 1%).

I know the added playoff spots make 1 more team "competitive" in each league -- and while there is some angst over the N.L. Wild card race, I don't see that happening in the American League. There will still be 3 or 4 playoff-type teams in the A. L. East and probably 2 in the A.L. West. I definitely don't see the Twins in competition for a Wild Card spot. If you think of "competitive" as being in the playoffs, the best bet is for an implosion of other teams in the Central and for the Twins to somehow squeak by.

Part of baseball is thinking that there is a chance at the beginning of EVERY season. I just don't see it as a very big chance for the Twins.

#17 powrwrap

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:42 AM

[quote name='kevinlillie']Do we have ANY chance to be competitive next year? [/QUOTE]

Nope, none. But the Twins will think they have a shot and another chance at starting fresh will be lost.


[QUOTE] What do you think will happen in the offseason? [/QUOTE]

Terry Ryan will sign a mid level starting pitcher free agent (could even be Pavano) and possibly trade Span for a #4 or #5 type starter. They will have a pathetic starting rotation consisting of 5 guys that throw about 90-92 mph and don't have an out pitch. You won't see Kyle Gibson until June and he will be on an innings pitched count. The Twins will go internally for SS, 2B, and 3B. There will be no bench strength.

[QUOTE]I'm tired of watching crappy baseball. I was at the Twins game last week and all I could do was sit there and think 2 years ago, we were a playoff team...[/QUOTE]

Sorry, but get ready for another year of the same.
[FONT=comic sans ms]"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand." [/FONT]

#18 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:54 AM

A full season with the current roster with decent health would mean 78-81 wins. Fixing the bullpen gets it to .500. Two rotation additions and some sort of contribution from Baker and Gibson could add 10 wins.

#19 Boom Boom

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 12:11 PM

I don't think Terry Ryan will improve the rotation enough.

I think Span will be traded for a pitcher, but we're going to be disappointed with the caliber of pitcher received. I'm not counting on positive contributions from Baker. And TR already said he's not going after the best pitchers in free agency.

So the team will be improved, but not enough. I predict about 75 wins.

#20 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 September 2012 - 12:19 PM

Of Course we have a chance in 2013 -- Signed Lloyd Christmas.


Gee, between Dumb and Dumber, and Alfred E. Neuman, you've got quite the roster of experts to turn to. :)


I have as much knowledge as both of them.