Posted 18 September 2012 - 09:51 AM
Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:07 AM
Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:17 AM
The last two years we are 63 games under 500. The next worst team in the AL is the Mariners at 36 under. Logically it would seem that this team needs a lot more than a couple pieces to be a serious playoff team. Could they improve enough to hang around the Central for most of the season probably. But to be a serious playoff team I just can't see it.
Then the question is do you band aid a team together so you might hang around most of the season and if so does that set back a real rebuilding effort? It would seem to me you can't do both.
Posted 18 September 2012 - 10:32 AM
Is it a coincedence the Orioles and A's bought into winning baseball AND they have new managers? It may not be fair to fire Gardenhire after giving him the most pathetic pitching staff in the history of the team, but in this day and age, rarely do teams go into two year slumps and suddenly come out of it without first having a major shakeup. Admittedly, TK did it, but he had the longest leash in all of professional sports and it took 8 years to do so. My feeling is the Twins cannot compete in 2013 and will look pretty much the same as we see them now. I'll bet 2014 will have a lot of new faces and optimism will abound though.
Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:21 AM
Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:25 AM
Ryan did a good job improving the lineup and MI defense from where it was in 2011. I don't know how he'll improve the rotation. Frankly, I think we have a 6-7 guys who could all be #5 starters, none should be good for 20+ starts. (I still think Hendriks can turn into a good starter but it'll probably take him a few seasons to get there). I don't know how he gets a solid rotation. On the other hand, he only has to go from unbelievably bad to slightly below average for the Twins to be competitive.
Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:25 AM
Many people say no, I say yes. The lineup is where it needs to be and the bullpen is close. The question is, can Terry Ryan build a moderately decent rotation from the ground up in one offseason?
The lineup is league-average offensively and about average on defense as well. The bullpen has been good but there are soft spots that I think might get exposed worse in a real pennant race. If Ryan works hard and builds a "moderately decent" rotation, that also smacks of .500 ball. Where is the upside to push above that into actual contention? I don't see it. Even more is needed.
Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:36 AM
Ryan made it clear he wasn't signing any of the top free agent pitchers. Maybe he was blowing smoke.Why not? How does signing 1 or 2 free agent starters and trading Morneau or Span for pitching help hinder your long-term rebuilding efforts?
It would seem to me you can't do both.
Trading for pitching help? Maybe that can work but most teams aren't giving up decent pitching. However, I think it makes sense at this time to trade all of these guys that will bring back decent prospects, if that's possible, and go young. I don't think trading one guy will turn the team around. Of course maybe the guys we have won't bring back decent help and in that case we are stuck without spending for it.
Last and last seems to indicate that the present course isn't working.
Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:40 AM
Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:41 AM
Is it staying in the A. L. Central race until September? Still probably a chance but less than 15% I would think. But then, I never discount the ability of other A.L. Central teams to implode.
Being truly competitive in the sense of being able to compete with the best teams in the league? Less than 5% (maybe less than 1%).
I know the added playoff spots make 1 more team "competitive" in each league -- and while there is some angst over the N.L. Wild card race, I don't see that happening in the American League. There will still be 3 or 4 playoff-type teams in the A. L. East and probably 2 in the A.L. West. I definitely don't see the Twins in competition for a Wild Card spot. If you think of "competitive" as being in the playoffs, the best bet is for an implosion of other teams in the Central and for the Twins to somehow squeak by.
Part of baseball is thinking that there is a chance at the beginning of EVERY season. I just don't see it as a very big chance for the Twins.
Posted 18 September 2012 - 11:42 AM
Nope, none. But the Twins will think they have a shot and another chance at starting fresh will be lost.
[QUOTE] What do you think will happen in the offseason? [/QUOTE]
Terry Ryan will sign a mid level starting pitcher free agent (could even be Pavano) and possibly trade Span for a #4 or #5 type starter. They will have a pathetic starting rotation consisting of 5 guys that throw about 90-92 mph and don't have an out pitch. You won't see Kyle Gibson until June and he will be on an innings pitched count. The Twins will go internally for SS, 2B, and 3B. There will be no bench strength.
[QUOTE]I'm tired of watching crappy baseball. I was at the Twins game last week and all I could do was sit there and think 2 years ago, we were a playoff team...[/QUOTE]
Sorry, but get ready for another year of the same.
Posted 18 September 2012 - 12:11 PM
I think Span will be traded for a pitcher, but we're going to be disappointed with the caliber of pitcher received. I'm not counting on positive contributions from Baker. And TR already said he's not going after the best pitchers in free agency.
So the team will be improved, but not enough. I predict about 75 wins.