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Article: The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2019: Part 1 (16-20)

nick gordon adalberto mejia jake cave cj cron wander javier
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#21 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:27 AM

Where does Nelson Cruz fit on this list? ;-)
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#22 dbminn

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 11:06 AM

Finished my list. Here's 16-20:

 

16 - Javier. So much upside but I know nothing about him except from reports.

 

17 - Mejia. League average starter with 5 yrs control. Health issues.

 

18 - Gordon. See above.

 

19 - Rooker. Potential power but limited in the field. I trade 2 yrs of Cron for 6 of Rooker if I'm building for the future (like the Twins).

 

20 - Garver/Astudillo. Catchers don't grow on trees. Both have shown they can hit MLB pitching, years of control. Garver has concussion issues.

 

Honorable Mention - Thorpe, Cron, Schoop, Pineda, Duran

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#23 ewen21

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 11:33 AM

As far as Gordon's rap career goes he needs to focus on either baseball or rap music. This idea that people can't have an opinion about his rap music there's a bunch of baloney. He puts it out there for opinions to be had end it works both ways.

I think he needs to focus on getting a little bit stronger. He is so thin It doesn't look like he's worthy of a full season of major-league baseball.
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#24 Wookiee of the Year

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 01:13 PM

I love this approach to rankings, Nick. Glad you're doing it again this offseason.

 

It's obviously a challenge to make asset ranking decisions between current MLB players with multi-million dollar salaries and unproven prospects who cost nothing, but I think it's a useful exercise. Prospect rankings and Under 25 rankings look at only a slice of an organization's strength; this tries to put it all together in one list. I wish there were more team and organizational lists that took this approach.

 

The Cron vs. Gordon discussion hinges on a few factors: (1) when you think the Twins' competitive window is, (2) how much you think Gordon's stock has fallen in the last year or so, and (3) what you make of other teams passing on Cron on the waiver wire. I'd probably put Gordon ahead of Cron, but it's definitely debatable.

 

Trying to decide if it's an ominous sign that Javier has climbed two spots after missing a year. Does that suggest the Twins' assets are overall less valuable this year than last? Or is it more of a fluke? Not sure. Something I'll be thinking about as the list moves forward.

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#25 Tom Froemming

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 01:16 PM

That seems like an awfully aggressive ranking on Jake Cave.

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#26 Nick Nelson

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 01:29 PM

 

That seems like an awfully aggressive ranking on Jake Cave.

Fair. I guess it just depends on how much you buy into his power emergence and defensive value. A guy who can play center field and post a .200 ISO for several years has a lot of value. And I think he's particularly useful to the Twins at this moment with the uncertainty swirling around Buxton and Kepler. (I'll add that I did not have Cave in my top 20 at first pass, and gradually talked myself into that rank.)

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#27 old nurse

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 01:36 PM

 

I stopped reading when I saw you have Cron as more valuable than Gordon.

I get it. Its a long offseason and you are struggling for content. But you might want to think it through a bit.

Cron hit 30 hr last year. LoMo II or reached his potential? Gordon Below average fielder an hitter or slow developing. Cron has been a replacement level 1b/dh with one good season. For 2019 that has value.On the other side of the debate is all about potential and a failure at AAA. You could probably get a plyer that has put up Gordon like numbers for Cron, just not the pedigree


#28 Dman

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 02:09 PM

Look the kid had a 900 OPS in Chatty last year which is better than Rooker did at that level last year and he is younger than Rooker. Wade is supposedly other worldly with the bat and he struggled when moved up to AAA as well. Blaming his performance issue in AAA on rap seems pretty weak to me.

To me he is a talented baseball player and if he wasn't committed to that he would have given it up and started a rap career already. All players have interests outside of baseball. They need to spend time with their families and they do other things than just baseball. You can lift weights hit the ball around and still have a life or find time to rap. In fact I thought one of the reasons the Twins liked Baldelli so much was because he wasn't so completely focused on baseball that he had other interests so that he could better relate to the players.

Is Gorden spending too much time creating and promoting his rap music? I honestly don't know the answer to that. All I know is he had a fantastic start to the season last year, has been young for each level he has been at and IMO he is likely to fulfill his potential as an average shortstop who will likely get better with age. I don't think his rap music will keep him from reaching his potential.

Edited by Carole Keller, 30 December 2018 - 05:10 AM.

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#29 Nick Nelson

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 02:14 PM

 

Is Gorden spending too much time creating and promoting his rap music?I honestly don't know the answer to that.All I know is he had a fantastic start to the season last year, has been young for each level he has been at and IMO he is likely to fulfill his potential as an average shortstop who will likely get better with age. I don't think his rap music will keep him from reaching his potential.

Look, a guy named Nick can absolutely remain fully committed to his day job (or jobs) while also making rap music. I'm living proof! (Couldn't pass up this opportunity to give a shameless plug for my new album, which dropped last Friday) 

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#30 markos

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 02:32 PM

 

The Cron vs. Gordon discussion hinges on a few factors: (1) when you think the Twins' competitive window is, (2) how much you think Gordon's stock has fallen in the last year or so, and (3) what you make of other teams passing on Cron on the waiver wire. I'd probably put Gordon ahead of Cron, but it's definitely debatable.

For me, it isn't just that other teams passed on him on waivers; rather, it is that the Rays had to put him on waivers to begin with to get him off their roster. That implies that literally no team was willing to trade anything of value for him and the Rays were left to dump him for nothing.


#31 USAFChief

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:20 PM

 

 rap music.  

This is like "military intelligence," "jumbo shrimp," and "near miss," yo.

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:57 PM

As far as Gordon's rap career goes he needs to focus on either baseball or rap music. This idea that people can't have an opinion about his rap music there's a bunch of baloney. He puts it out there for opinions to be had end it works both ways.

I think he needs to focus on getting a little bit stronger. He is so thin It doesn't look like he's worthy of a full season of major-league baseball.


Why are you posting on this site at 11:33 AM? Focus on your job. At all times.
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#33 Nick Nelson

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 05:04 PM

 

This is like "military intelligence," "jumbo shrimp," and "near miss," yo.

I look forward to your upcoming folk revival album. I hear it's got some bangin fiddle solos. :)

 

(Also... ahem)

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#34 Carole Keller

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 05:29 PM

MODERATOR WARNING: this is not a thread specifically about Gordon, nor his HOBBY. Seriously, this tangent has derailed many a thread in the past ... move on. And its mention, when no. other. players’ hobbies get mentioned, (i.e. all the time May puts into his gaming career) becomes very suspect in its motivation. Knock it off. Points will be awarded if another baseball thread is derailed in this manner. Talk about Gordon the player, period. We’ve had many, many reports on how hard he works, enough with the mention of his rapping hobby. Further, as this is a moderator warning, DO NOT reply to this post in this thread.
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#35 ewen21

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 06:23 PM

Gordon, for whatever reason, was horrible in a couple of months in AAA last year. He isn't noted as a good fielder and has compiled an OPS barely north of .700 through his minor league career. He is rather thin and gives the impression (with that thin frame) that he wears down.

He's young and a couple of years off, maybe more. His rating is totally just

#36 mikelink45

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:42 PM

Since I have to assume that all the players on the teams roster are included in this listing I would join those who say Javier does not belong.He is not a potential call up, he is not even ready for 2020.Since this is a 20 person list and we have a 25 man active roster that means we are tossing some of the players to the side.Lewis and Kiriloff have to make the list because trading them would gain better assets than any of the players already on your list. 

 

Gordon is someone we hope for, but is he at the stage to be number 20?Not unless he is ready to push for a starting role.There are 15 spots left - that is the rest of the starting rotation - including Cruz (if we assume Cave over Buxton we have two of the starters in this group of five.So we have 7 players left in the starting lineup.With 8 more places Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson are there and I have already listed Kiriloff and Lewis so there are three - Reed, Rogers are in the BP so there is one more pitcher to fit into the list.  

 

So who is left off?Castro or Garver, Hildenberger, Graterol?Oh then there is the guy who Cave would be competing with - Buxton. I like the exercise and the arguments you are sure to set off!

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#37 TheLeviathan

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:30 AM

Nick's rankings appear to be biased more to a "present value" look at things, whereas in the trading environment, teams are calculating future value all the time. Teams are generally looking to get a discount due to the future nature of things on one hand and looking for a premium for the present value they're trading away. So presently, Cron's value can arguably be greater than Gordon's, to the Twins. I doubt they would have given up Gordon to acquire Cron despite this.


Ok...that explains Cron and Gordon.....but then Javier is 16th and none of this makes any sense again. There is no way he has more present value to the Twins than anyone on the big league roster. And probably a dozen dudes in AAA.

I love him as a prospect to watch though, but he torpedoes this whole explanation with his ranking.

#38 Nick Nelson

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:41 AM

 

Ok...that explains Cron and Gordon.....but then Javier is 16th and none of this makes any sense again. There is no way he has more present value to the Twins than anyone on the big league roster. And probably a dozen dudes in AAA.

I love him as a prospect to watch though, but he torpedoes this whole explanation with his ranking.

He has enough future value to offset the lack of present value IMO. I'm just a big believer that he's 1) going to stick at SS, and 2) hit. Obviously that's subjective and it does depart a little from the focus on established track record, but there ya go.

 

My sense is that the rest of the league values him highly too. He'd bring back far more than Gordon would in trade. Zero question.


#39 birdwatcher

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:46 AM

 

This is like "military intelligence," "jumbo shrimp," and "near miss," yo.

 

 

Yeah, you tell 'em, Chief!! Now let's get back to our private PM about Gregorian Chant music.


#40 birdwatcher

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:59 AM

 

Ok...that explains Cron and Gordon.....but then Javier is 16th and none of this makes any sense again. There is no way he has more present value to the Twins than anyone on the big league roster. And probably a dozen dudes in AAA.

I love him as a prospect to watch though, but he torpedoes this whole explanation with his ranking.

 

I'd suggest the exercise considers future value, but it discounts it. 

 

I personally would agree that Javier is slotted too high. I calculate two things into a discount: The time and the uncertainty, and Javier has a long way to go, although with less uncertainty IMHO than Gordon, for example. There are maybe ten prospects in the system who have more value, IMO than one or more players on the projected active roster. Certainly, Javier has more value than Adrianza for example? Graterol has more value than Magill?

 

From what I've read about prospects, I'd slot maybe a half dozen or so in front of Javier, based on a certainty AND time advantage for the likes of Lewis, Kirilloff, and Larnach and for a time advantage for Thorpe and maybe a couple others.

 

As an exercise, let's take Austin. WHich prospects are more valuable? He doesn't make the Top 20, right?




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