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Article: Official Rule 5 Draft Day Thread

tyler jay hector lujan jake reed johan quezada lewin diaz
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#41 jkcarew

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 01:43 PM

Whenever the Rule 5 comes around, I'm reminded how much the rules around international players need to be changed. Diaz was eligible last year having cleared low A ball. It's dumb. And if they're worth protecting, it's dumber yet, needing to be put on the 40-man at a ridiculous stage of development (Polanco).


#42 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 02:05 PM

 

It's not hindsight when many people wanted Benintendi over Jay on draft day. I recall most people were happy with the Gibson pick.
I rarely criticize specific draft picks, but a college reliever at 6 overall was a head scratcher from the start.

 

While I think it's fair to say the Tyler Jay pick was very much questionable, it wasn't as misguided as people like to portray it to be. Benintendi's success makes it seem like a glaring misjudgement for sure. But consider that he and Walker Buehler at #24 are the only two selections among the first 42 (!) that have contributed anything so far to a major league team. This includes 3 of 5 picked BEFORE him. Some of the others will obviously eventually turn out well, and chances are really strong that Jay will fizzle. But while many liked Benintendi as a the better pick, many liked the Jay pick too, might still be okay with it if his injury history was erased. So, yes it is hindsight criticism for many (most?), and overly harsh in general due to a lack of context.

 

Criticism of the Gibson pick was mild right afterward, but it sure as hell picked up plenty of steam and only subsided because his success squelched it.

 

It's no crime to have unprotected players passed by in Rule 5, and it's no crime to swing and miss on a draft choice now and then. It happens to ALL teams. Ignoring that fact is unfair. 

Edited by birdwatcher, 14 December 2018 - 02:07 PM.

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#43 USAFChief

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 02:11 PM

 

While I think it's fair to say the Tyler Jay pick was very much questionable, it wasn't as misguided as people like to portray it to be. Benintendi's success makes it seem like a glaring misjudgement for sure. But consider that he and Walker Buehler at #24 are the only two selections among the first 42 (!) that have contributed anything so far to a major league team. This includes 3 of 5 picked BEFORE him. Some of the others will obviously eventually turn out well, and chances are really strong that Jay will fizzle. But while many liked Benintendi as a the better pick, many liked the Jay pick too, might still be okay with it if his injury history was erased. So, yes it is hindsight criticism for many (most?), and overly harsh in general due to a lack of context.

 

Criticism of the Gibson pick was mild right afterward, but it sure as hell picked up plenty of steam and only subsided because his success squelched it.

 

It's no crime to have unprotected players passed by in Rule 5, and it's no crime to swing and miss on a draft choice now and then. It happens to ALL teams. Ignoring that fact is unfair. 

It does, however, illustrate the difficulty of being a "draft and develop" team as is often advocated here.

 

 

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#44 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 03:49 PM

 

It does, however, illustrate the difficulty of being a "draft and develop" team as is often advocated here.

 

 

A draft and develop only team, absolutely.

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#45 Vanimal46

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 03:54 PM

It does, however, illustrate the difficulty of being a "draft and develop" team as is often advocated here.


It also illustrates how impressive, and lucky the Cubs and Astros were in their rebuild. Everyone points to their plan as the gold standard, but don't realize how difficult it is to hit on 4 top 5-10 draft picks in a row. The Twins have missed on 50% of their recent top 10 picks with Stewart and Jay. Jury is still out on Buxton and Gordon.
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#46 ashbury

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 04:31 PM

A draft and develop only team, absolutely.

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#47 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 07:48 PM

While I think it's fair to say the Tyler Jay pick was very much questionable, it wasn't as misguided as people like to portray it to be. Benintendi's success makes it seem like a glaring misjudgement for sure. But consider that he and Walker Buehler at #24 are the only two selections among the first 42 (!) that have contributed anything so far to a major league team. This includes 3 of 5 picked BEFORE him. Some of the others will obviously eventually turn out well, and chances are really strong that Jay will fizzle. But while many liked Benintendi as a the better pick, many liked the Jay pick too, might still be okay with it if his injury history was erased. So, yes it is hindsight criticism for many (most?), and overly harsh in general due to a lack of context.

Criticism of the Gibson pick was mild right afterward, but it sure as hell picked up plenty of steam and only subsided because his success squelched it.

It's no crime to have unprotected players passed by in Rule 5, and it's no crime to swing and miss on a draft choice now and then. It happens to ALL teams. Ignoring that fact is unfair.


Who is ignoring that? I already said I rarely criticize a specific pick. Misses happen all the time, I understand.
You'll never find me questioning the Stewart pick, for example, even though I think he's likely a bust.
A reliever at 6 has no defense, to me, none. And it never will. Thinking he could be converted to a starter was a desperation, hail mary, imo, and a fireable offense. Has that ever happened that high in the draft?

#48 thegambler

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 06:48 AM

The Twins need to stop watching service time clocks and trying to hoard mid level prospects. You can't build a franchise around mediocre MLB players, while not giving your top organization minor league players any time to play before they are Rule 5 eligible. I'm less concerned about finding the next Johan Santana, as I am giving the next one up. We need to play these guys. Stop wasting money on players like C.J. Cron or Logan Morrison. No reason to spend money on a Quad A players, when you have a surplus sitting in the cupboard.

#49 birdwatcher

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 08:13 AM

 

Who is ignoring that? I already said I rarely criticize a specific pick. Misses happen all the time, I understand.
You'll never find me questioning the Stewart pick, for example, even though I think he's likely a bust.
A reliever at 6 has no defense, to me, none. And it never will. Thinking he could be converted to a starter was a desperation, hail mary, imo, and a fireable offense. Has that ever happened that high in the draft?

 

I'm sorry, Mr. Brooks, I wasn't accusing you in particular of ignoring the fact that all teams miss on first round selections. 

 

All the people who "defended" the Jay pick were using an indefensible argument in your opinion, and you're entitled to it. I think the people who saw that Jay had the potential to bring four workable pitches to the majors, including a plus slider and a plus fastball, are likely to end up disappointed. This is partly due to injury and not necessarily due to a mis-assessment of his stuff. So I think you're being unfair when you categorize the error as this fireable offense. They thought they drafted a starting pitcher, not a reliever, and it's not like Jay had zero experience pitching multiple innings. So yes, a bad pick, but not entirely indefensible.

 

At the time of the decision, I am 100% confident that commenters on this board would have been up in arms calling for heads to roll if the Twins had selected Benintendi instead of filling a desperate need for pitching.

 

It's unlikely, but still possible that Jay ends up as a high-leverage MLB bullpen piece, and as we know, those guys are as valuable on a team these days as most first-rounders on that team's roster. I find it mildly ironic that we can point to two "misses" out of their last 10 first round selections, and both of them will be in spring training with a chance to further their development. Stewart could even make the team, and he's a guy whose selection has resulted in lots of calls for the Twins to replace their entire baseball department. Do very many teams have a better record with their last ten first round selections?

Edited by birdwatcher, 15 December 2018 - 08:59 AM.

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#50 Vanimal46

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 08:52 AM

I find it mildly ironic that we can point to two "misses" out of their last 10 first round selections, and both of them will be in spring training with a chance to further their development. Stewart could even make the team, and he's a guy whose selection has resulted in lots of calls for the Twins to replace their entire baseball department. Do very many teams have a better record with their last ten first round selections?


I classified Stewart and Jay as misses because the goal wasn't to find a potential back-end starter and middle inning reliever picking at #4 and #6 overall. The Twins need a lot more bang for their buck from the draft and that's not going to cut it. If Buxton and Gordon become the starting CF and SS, hey, at least they got 50% right.

Chicago Cubs nailed 4 top 10 picks in a row from 2011-2015... Baez, Almora Jr. (who took the longest to develop), Bryant, Schwarber, Happ.

Houston nailed, let's say 4 out of 6 top 10 picks from 2011-2015. Springer, Correa, Bregman, Kyle Tucker. Their missed being Appel, and Aiken who never signed with them in 2014.

Because of their resounding success tearing down the MLB team and drafting incredibly well, now everyone thinks that's the way to do things. It's not as easy as it looks.

#51 howieramone2

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 11:25 AM

 

After everything that went on the last couple years, am glad there isn't room to make a pick this year.  

 

Don't know what to think about Jay, other than disappointment.Puzzling is the word that comes to mind when thinking about Reed, both in how the Twins handled him and why he wasn't previously drafted.The other two pitchers you discuss, Seth, aren't on the same page as the first two...at least for me.As for Diaz, will add him to the list of those who have been disappointing.Understand not adding Wiel to the 40-man, but he is someone I am concerned could be lost.

 

I do look for the Twins to add to their minor league talent pool by taking one or two players later this morning.Hopefully, they will find a good one.

Did you know Haley spent time on the roster of the best team in baseball last season? Unfortunately he keep getting Darvished.

25% of the time you can beat anybody. 25% of the time you can't beat nobody. It's the other 50% of the time that defines you as a pitcher.


#52 ashbury

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 01:21 PM

Did you know Haley spent time on the roster of the best team in baseball last season? Unfortunately he keep getting Darvished.

Haley suffered a season-ending stress reaction on his elbow?

It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into. -- Jonathan Swift


#53 Brandon

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 02:02 PM

 

I classified Stewart and Jay as misses because the goal wasn't to find a potential back-end starter and middle inning reliever picking at #4 and #6 overall. The Twins need a lot more bang for their buck from the draft and that's not going to cut it. If Buxton and Gordon become the starting CF and SS, hey, at least they got 50% right.

Chicago Cubs nailed 4 top 10 picks in a row from 2011-2015... Baez, Almora Jr. (who took the longest to develop), Bryant, Schwarber, Happ.

Houston nailed, let's say 4 out of 6 top 10 picks from 2011-2015. Springer, Correa, Bregman, Kyle Tucker. Their missed being Appel, and Aiken who never signed with them in 2014.

Because of their resounding success tearing down the MLB team and drafting incredibly well, now everyone thinks that's the way to do things. It's not as easy as it looks.

The Cubs and Houston picked higher than the Twins in those years.makes it easier to hit when you have the higher picks.I am confident that if Bryant was available when we had the pick we would have picked him instead of Gordon or Kohl Stewart.And Gordon and Stewart were considered top of the draft when we picked them.I would also include Berrios as his draft pick turned out pretty good.Stewart is looking like a potential 3-5 starter depending on his eventual ceiling and I think he can continue to build over the next few years.He may have to be a swing man or 5th starter a year or two but with a 96 mph fastball and developing other pitches He does have the potential of being a Kyle Gibson for us.Gordon still has the potential to be a .270/.330/.380 hitter with 25 2bs 10HRs and 10 Stolen bases as a middle IF.If Jay can be a solid Middle reliever his pick will work out ok just looks bad compared to Benintendi.I think Buxton will be fine.His defense is great and I think his bat will play just fine.  

 

By the way Killerhoff is looking like a good first round draft pick as is Lewis and Larnarch.I think the farm system even under the old regime was doing just fine.  

Edited by Brandon, 15 December 2018 - 02:14 PM.

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#54 jokin

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 12:26 AM

 

Yeah I think 80- to 90- percent of the board here didn't like that pick.I defended the pick because scouting reports gave him two plus plus pitches with another that could be plus.I figured elite reliever as a floor sounded OK.

 

I think that pick should put the turn reliever to starter idea to rest.Since we have experienced it has such a low percentage of working out it was especially risky to do at the top of the draft.Several posters on here commented about that.

 

I know no pick is perfectly safe but this one seems especially egregious because the likelihood of it working out was so low.

 

I know his story is not finished yet but from what I have seen his stuff has been very hit-table I mean loud contact, that I really don't see him turning it around at this point.Maybe he has simply been hurt most all the time he has been in the system and getting healthy will change things.I wish him well but as things stand today this is a low point for him and the Twins.

 

I am confident in saying that the conceptualization of the draft-RP-to-SP fiasco was on the list handed to the previous GM on his reasons-to-be-fired-list. (Probably Reason # 2. Hicks for JR Murphy was Reason # 1).

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#55 jokin

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 12:32 AM

 

A reliever at 6 has no defense, to me, none. And it never will. Thinking he could be converted to a starter was a desperation, hail mary, imo, and a fireable offense. Has that ever happened that high in the draft?

 

As I said above, Reason #2.

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#56 birdwatcher

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 03:54 PM

 

I classified Stewart and Jay as misses because the goal wasn't to find a potential back-end starter and middle inning reliever picking at #4 and #6 overall. The Twins need a lot more bang for their buck from the draft and that's not going to cut it. If Buxton and Gordon become the starting CF and SS, hey, at least they got 50% right.

Chicago Cubs nailed 4 top 10 picks in a row from 2011-2015... Baez, Almora Jr. (who took the longest to develop), Bryant, Schwarber, Happ.

Houston nailed, let's say 4 out of 6 top 10 picks from 2011-2015. Springer, Correa, Bregman, Kyle Tucker. Their missed being Appel, and Aiken who never signed with them in 2014.

Because of their resounding success tearing down the MLB team and drafting incredibly well, now everyone thinks that's the way to do things. It's not as easy as it looks.

 

You can be sure that my response will be considered that of an apologist by many, and they'll be wrong about that.

 

Aside from some of the more obvious things, like for example that Bryant and Bregman and others were obvious selections and also unavailable to the Twins, there are other huge flaws in drawing conclusions from your comparison. I'll give you some examples, starting with comparing the Astro's prowess in selecting Correa and leaving Buxton as the table scrap for us. Today, Buxton has the second-most WAR of any player not named Correa among the top 10 picks. That includes Almora, who you label a success story. Of course, the Cubs didn't have access to Buxton, but 15 0f the 45 first draft choices that year have more WAR than Almora, and 39 of them were picked after he was. This group includes both Berrios and Buxton. Buxton, in fact, will probably finish his career with more WAR than any of those guys, perhaps with the possible exceptions of Correa and Corey Seager.

 

It's critical to consider the details of each draft. Did you know that Stewart, today, has the 3rd most WAR among the top 10 in his draft? And that, among the first 30 picks, Stewart has the 3rd most WAR among ALL pitchers selected? Springer was a great pick, 8 of 10 of the first guys from that draft have been great picks, and 3 guys selected after him have been even better so far, because that draft was a weird case of being rich at the top but very shallow, with lots of busts later on in the round. The 2015 draft is shaping up to be an odd class, with Bregaman and Benintendi in a class by themselves. Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker look to be okay picks, but certainly nothing special at all, certainly no more special-looking than Nick Gordon or Kyle Schwarber are shaping up to be from a weaker 2015 draft class.

 

I'm with you in thinking that the Twins can't afford to miss very often with their 1st-rounders, and especially if they have a guy who slots in as one of the very very elite prospects like was the case with Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis. Gordon, Stewart, and Jay were never thought of in that way, nor were Schwarber, Almora, Tucker, or Happ. But Bryant, Aiken, Correa, Buxton, and Appel were. Every team misses, even occasionally on elite players, especially pitchers. Ask the Marlins about Tyler Kolek, or the Rangers about Dillon Tate, taken two picks before Tyler Jay.

 

This team HAS to take advantage of FA opportunities when they have the cash and the merchandise is attractive, because while they aren't any worse at the draft stuff than the teams you mentioned, they're not any better either.

Edited by birdwatcher, 16 December 2018 - 04:21 PM.

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#57 howieramone2

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 11:58 AM

 

Haley suffered a season-ending stress reaction on his elbow?

There are many different types of Darvishes. His was a lesser one.

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25% of the time you can beat anybody. 25% of the time you can't beat nobody. It's the other 50% of the time that defines you as a pitcher.


#58 howieramone2

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 12:04 PM

 

I am confident in saying that the conceptualization of the draft-RP-to-SP fiasco was on the list handed to the previous GM on his reasons-to-be-fired-list. (Probably Reason # 2. Hicks for JR Murphy was Reason # 1).

Not at all. There is no downside to starting a college reliever as a starter. Every article I read about Jay prior to the draft had him as a starter. The lights didn't come on for Hicks until he was almost 28. I don't recall the board being at all unhappy when he was moved.

25% of the time you can beat anybody. 25% of the time you can't beat nobody. It's the other 50% of the time that defines you as a pitcher.


#59 Brandon

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 02:11 PM

 

Not at all. There is no downside to starting a college reliever as a starter. Every article I read about Jay prior to the draft had him as a starter. The lights didn't come on for Hicks until he was almost 28. I don't recall the board being at all unhappy when he was moved.

Plus Hicks has the benefit of playing home games in Yankees stadium where everyone gets a home run and you get a home run and you get a home run......




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