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Article: Official Rule 5 Draft Day Thread

tyler jay hector lujan jake reed johan quezada lewin diaz
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#21 USAFChief

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 01:50 PM

 

I thought someone might take a flyer on Tyler Jay, which wouldn't have been the worst result in the world, other than confirming he was a failed draft pick. but it's good that with as deep a system as we have that no one got picked up, shows that the FO is making some pretty sharp evaluations on guys.

 

Wonder if getting passed over under rule 5 will light a fire under any of these guys?

I think what it proves is there were no eligibles in the Twins system even worth a AAA shot.

 

Jay will likely be out of baseball within 1.5 yrs.

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 01:50 PM

I would have taken a flyer on Jay if I was a really bad team. Why not?

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#23 BBAM

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 02:02 PM

Still a chance for Cruz?When was the last real DH we had?Thome?

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#24 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 02:28 PM

I've kind of been asking myself since the end of the draft why no one was taken from the minor league portion. Didn't really think anyone would from the MLB portion... and those that would have been even considered are certainly on the Triple-A roster.

 

Guys who are eligible for the MLB Rule 5 next year would be on the AAA roster this year. So guys like Jorge Alcala, Brusdar Graterol and Wander Javier are certainly on the roster. Guys like Kirlloff and Lewis don't need to be protected yet. Since any high upside guys will be protected on the rosters, you're' really just talking about fillers and then it's' more of a who saw who on what day kind of thing. I mean, the Twins drafted a 28-year-oldwho spent most of this year in AA. So, I'm' good with no one being taken in the minor league portion and I don't think it says anything negative about the organization... I don't think... but maybe.

 

Next year might be different because there will be some tough choices. 

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#25 Han Joelo

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 02:29 PM

If you read that linked BA article, Jay's name is mentioned in a list of "other notables."A long list.When you take it in that context, I'm not surprised he wasn't picked.He's a long ways from being the only "notable" prospect who hasn't panned out.

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#26 ashbury

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 03:06 PM

In the AAA portion, the Twins selected RHP Dustin Knight from the Giants.

To possibly save anyone else from a bit of searching when trying to look him up, his name is spelled with an 'e'. Dusten Knight.

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#27 Jacksson

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 05:41 PM

Ok, let me get this straight. The Twins who have one of the top ranked Minor League systems in MLB lost NO PLAYERS in either the Major League or Minor League portion of the 12/13/18 Rule 5 Draft? The San Francisco Giants, ranked as one of the WORST Minor League systems in MLB LOST 3 PLAYERS. Explain.
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#28 sorney

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 07:57 PM

I know, hindsight and all, but every time I think of Tyler Jay, I think of what could have been with Andrew Benintendi :(

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#29 mikelink45

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 08:05 PM

 

FWIW here are the results:

 

1. Orioles — Richie Martin, SS (from Athletics)
2. Royals — Sam McWilliams, RHP (from Rays)
3. White Sox — Jordan Romano, RHP (from Blue Jays)
4. Marlins — Riley Ferrell, RHP (from Astros)
5. Tigers — Reed Garrett, RHP (from Rangers)
7. Reds — Connor Joe, C (from Dodgers)
8. Rangers — Chris Ellis, RHP (from Cardinals)
9. Giants — Travis Bergen, LHP (from Blue Jays)
10. Blue Jays — Elvis Luciano, RHP (from Royals)
11. Mets — Kyle Dowdy, RHP (from Indians)
13. Phillies — Drew Jackson, SS (from Dodgers)
15. Diamondbacks — Nick Green, RHP (from Yankees)
19. Mariners — Brandon Brennan, RHP (from Rockies)

39. Giants — Drew Ferguson, OF (from Astros)

It says a lot about the real value of the Twins assets.

 

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#30 mikelink45

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 08:08 PM

If all these players taken were considered better than what we had, should we have taken one?Should we resign these players or just let them be free agents and hope they find a home?


#31 DocBauer

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 11:11 PM

It says a lot about the real value of the Twins assets.


It's not like I actually know anything, lol, but have to disagree. (I especially never really understood the milb portion of protection but seem to understand those exposed are fringe guys). The best prospects at the high levels are protected on the 40 man. The remaining top prospects are either too young to be eligible, or protected under various rosterings. Again, I'm unfamiliar with all the rules. The milb portion has always been about filler pieces.

I am absolutely befuddled, however in regard to Reed. Despite production, and a strong finish to 2018, the Twins didn't look at him, or protect him, and nobody saw fit to draft him. There is obviously something here we are all missing here.

In regard to Jay, I wouldn't have been shocked to see some rebuilding team take a flier on him. But injuries and performance really didn't make him a strong consideration. I really doubt he's going to make it at this point. But we have all seen guys who just struggle for various reasons until one day something clicks and the stars line up. Here's hoping he is 100% in 2019 and his arm and arsenal show life and suddenly the Twins have another LH BP arm to work in.
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#32 Danchat

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 11:51 PM

 

Ok, let me get this straight. The Twins who have one of the top ranked Minor League systems in MLB lost NO PLAYERS in either the Major League or Minor League portion of the 12/13/18 Rule 5 Draft? The San Francisco Giants, ranked as one of the WORST Minor League systems in MLB LOST 3 PLAYERS. Explain.

All three of the Giants players were taken in the AAA rounds, meaning those players' talent is marginal and no 40 man spot is needed. It would be one thing if they lost 3 guys in the MLB Rule 5 draft, but the minors version? I'm not sure if that's even worth talking about. 

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#33 DocBauer

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 02:00 AM

FWIW, I looked up Dusten Knight tonight. From what I can gather, he's 28yo, RH, 6' 200lbs. He throws in the 90's but seems to have a very nice curveball. Saw a video on Twinkietown website. (Can I say that? Lol) curve looks awesome in the shot I saw.

He split 2017 between A+ and AAA with solid numbers with just shy of a K per IP but just shy of a 2-1 K/BB ratio.

I don't know, but am assuming some sort of injury situation as he began 2018 in rookie ball before jumping to AA and AAA. 20 games at AA, only 4 games at AAA. 1.71 ERA combined, .196 AVG, .95 WHIP between all three stops. 4-1 SO/BB ratio, better than his career of about 2-1.

I am assuming, despite OK milb career numbers and maybe an even better 2018, that his age and lack of true dominance, especially in the velocity area, made him available. He appears to be AAA/AAAA fodder/fill-in.

Best guess, better numbers in 2018 than before with a big curveball made him an interesting Rochester addition.
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#34 rdehring

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 07:20 AM

 

It's not like I actually know anything, lol, but have to disagree. (I especially never really understood the milb portion of protection but seem to understand those exposed are fringe guys). The best prospects at the high levels are protected on the 40 man. The remaining top prospects are either too young to be eligible, or protected under various rosterings. Again, I'm unfamiliar with all the rules. The milb portion has always been about filler pieces. I am absolutely befuddled, however in regard to Reed. Despite production, and a strong finish to 2018, the Twins didn't look at him, or protect him, and nobody saw fit to draft him. There is obviously something here we are all missing here. In regard to Jay, I wouldn't have been shocked to see some rebuilding team take a flier on him. But injuries and performance really didn't make him a strong consideration. I really doubt he's going to make it at this point. But we have all seen guys who just struggle for various reasons until one day something clicks and the stars line up. Here's hoping he is 100% in 2019 and his arm and arsenal show life and suddenly the Twins have another LH BP arm to work in.

You said it much better than I could, Doc, Thanks.

 

We all saw that the strength of the system last year was at Ft. Myers and down.For various reasons, most of those guys aren't at risk in the MiLB portion of the draft.So yes, the system can be strong while losing no one.Next year and the year after may be different.

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#35 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 07:22 AM

 

Ok, let me get this straight. The Twins who have one of the top ranked Minor League systems in MLB lost NO PLAYERS in either the Major League or Minor League portion of the 12/13/18 Rule 5 Draft? The San Francisco Giants, ranked as one of the WORST Minor League systems in MLB LOST 3 PLAYERS. Explain.

 

Pure happenstance.

 

Anyone trying to make something out of this will be making stuff up.

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#36 Han Joelo

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 07:46 AM

 

I know, hindsight and all, but every time I think of Tyler Jay, I think of what could have been with Andrew Benintendi :(

And just think, in 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson, while Jared Mitchell (a high school outfielder) was still available and taken just one pick later by the White Sox!  And one pick later, the Angels took Randall Grichuk, while Mike Trout was still available.  At which point they then took Mike Trout.  Man, the White Sox really bungled that pick!

 

Not dissing you--hindsight is actually fun!  That pick by the Angels, btw, was compensation from the Yankees for signing Texeiria.  Now there's a hindsight dilemma--was that move worth it?

 

But I digress from the thread topic.  Apologies.

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#37 JLease

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 09:17 AM

 

Ok, let me get this straight. The Twins who have one of the top ranked Minor League systems in MLB lost NO PLAYERS in either the Major League or Minor League portion of the 12/13/18 Rule 5 Draft? The San Francisco Giants, ranked as one of the WORST Minor League systems in MLB LOST 3 PLAYERS. Explain.

 

The MLB portion is always a little odd because you have to keep that guy on your 25-man MLB roster or offer him back to the team you yanked him from and roster spots there are at a premium. I'm sure several of the guys we exposed to the MLB Rule V draft would have been snapped up if the drafting team could have assigned them to AAA.

 

I would have been intrigued by Tyler Jay if I were running a club that was tanking/terrible because the investment is minimal and the upside is still there if he's healthy. But it's a lottery ticket move that you can really only do if you have roster spots to burn (say if you don't want to start the clock on a better prospect of your own while you know the team is going to be awful).

 

And the Minor league portion really is about much more fringe-y guys.


#38 Tom Froemming

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 09:39 AM

 

Ok, let me get this straight. The Twins who have one of the top ranked Minor League systems in MLB lost NO PLAYERS in either the Major League or Minor League portion of the 12/13/18 Rule 5 Draft? The San Francisco Giants, ranked as one of the WORST Minor League systems in MLB LOST 3 PLAYERS. Explain.

The Rule 5 Draft is weird. Bad systems are loaded with older minor leaguers who are eligible. Two of those guys taken from San Francisco's system were 28-years-old and the other one they just signed as a minor league free agent in November.

 

Keep in mind that it's not like the Tyler Jays and Jake Reeds of the world were available in the minor league phase of the draft. There's something like an additional 35 players who get protected in that phase, I'm sure Jay and Reed were among them for the Twins (though the lists are not made public).

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#39 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 11:46 AM

And just think, in 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson, while Jared Mitchell (a high school outfielder) was still available and taken just one pick later by the White Sox! And one pick later, the Angels took Randall Grichuk, while Mike Trout was still available. At which point they then took Mike Trout. Man, the White Sox really bungled that pick!

Not dissing you--hindsight is actually fun! That pick by the Angels, btw, was compensation from the Yankees for signing Texeiria. Now there's a hindsight dilemma--was that move worth it?

But I digress from the thread topic. Apologies.


It's not hindsight when many people wanted Benintendi over Jay on draft day. I recall most people were happy with the Gibson pick.
I rarely criticize specific draft picks, but a college reliever at 6 overall was a head scratcher from the start.
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#40 Dman

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Posted 14 December 2018 - 12:31 PM

 

It's not hindsight when many people wanted Benintendi over Jay on draft day. I recall most people were happy with the Gibson pick.
I rarely criticize specific draft picks, but a college reliever at 6 overall was a head scratcher from the start.

Yeah I think 80- to 90- percent of the board here didn't like that pick.I defended the pick because scouting reports gave him two plus plus pitches with another that could be plus.I figured elite reliever as a floor sounded OK.

 

I think that pick should put the turn reliever to starter idea to rest.Since we have experienced it has such a low percentage of working out it was especially risky to do at the top of the draft.Several posters on here commented about that.

 

I know no pick is perfectly safe but this one seems especially egregious because the likelihood of it working out was so low.

 

I know his story is not finished yet but from what I have seen his stuff has been very hit-table I mean loud contact, that I really don't see him turning it around at this point.Maybe he has simply been hurt most all the time he has been in the system and getting healthy will change things.I wish him well but as things stand today this is a low point for him and the Twins.

Edited by Dman, 14 December 2018 - 12:32 PM.

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