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Article: What's the Plan with Tyler Austin?

tyler austin cj cron
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#41 IndianaTwin

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 10:30 AM

 

 

 

...Cruz spent most of his age 27 season in the minors, but came up in August and was great for 31 games on the way to becoming the ongoing monster that now has 360 career HRs...

 

 

 

I didn't realize that Cruz had 360 HRs -- that's almost Bainesian!

 

Cruz has 33.4 WAR and 360 HRs, with an .860 OPS. Baines had 38.7, 389, and .820, though with significantly more hits over a longer career. But does that mean that if Cruz has another solid year or two, folks could be pushing for the HOF? I know this belongs in another post, but that Baines selection keeps looking weaker and weaker to me.

 

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#42 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 11:13 AM

It's pretty clear: if Cruz (or any other pure DH type we sign) ends up here, then there is no plan with Austin. He will not be part of this organization

 

 

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#43 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 11:44 AM

I didn't realize that Cruz had 360 HRs -- that's almost Bainesian!

Cruz has 33.4 WAR and 360 HRs, with an .860 OPS. Baines had 38.7, 389, and .820, though with significantly more hits over a longer career. But does that mean that if Cruz has another solid year or two, folks could be pushing for the HOF? I know this belongs in another post, but that Baines selection keeps looking weaker and weaker to me.


I don’t think even Baines was pushing for Baines for the HOF.
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#44 frightwig

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 12:37 PM

 

Hmm...

 

Nelson Cruz (through age 26)

145 games, 478 PA, .231/.282/.385, OPS+ 72, 119K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Tyler Austin (through age 26)

120 games, 404 PA, .232/.290/.469, OPS+ 100, 148K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Cruz spent most of his age 27 season in the minors, but came up in August and was great for 31 games on the way to becoming the ongoing monster that now has 360 career HRs.

 

I'm not saying Austin is the second coming of Nelson Cruz, but those numbers put an interesting spin on the conversation for me. 

 

The young Nelson Cruz was really a pretty good corner outfielder.

 

Also note that at age 24 he hit .306/.388/.577 in AA, .269/.382/.490 in AAA. At 25, he hit .302/.378/.528 in AAA. At 26, he hit .352/.428/.698 in AAA. At 27, he hit .342/.429/.695 in yet another stint in AAA (God knows why).

 

So, although it's true that he struggled to make the leap to the majors through age 26, the dude was just crushing minor league pitching--and really the Rangers probably should have given him more of a chance to settle in, a couple years before he came up to stay.

 

Tyler Austin has done fairly well in the minors, but not quite as well as that, and last season at AAA he regressed to a .255/.311/.547 line between the NY/MIN affiliates. Maybe just a fluke, or maybe that's who he is. Steamer projects .240/.308/.447 for him next year, so 'low obp with some pop' is how he looks to the computer model.

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#45 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 01:24 PM

 

It's pretty clear: if Cruz (or any other pure DH type we sign) ends up here, then there is no plan with Austin. He will not be part of this organization

 

I'm really not sure why you say this. This Cron character doesn't inspire me at all. I look at him as another Logan Morrison, and I'm guessing that is what we will get. Strikes out alot, hits for power, no one wants him, dumpster pickup. Don't expect alot from this guy. 

 

Let him and Austin fight it out in Spring training. Put Cave in that group too. You can keep 2 of the three. None of the 3 of them are must haves. Let a couple win the job and one guy lose it. 

 

 

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#46 Halsey Hall

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 02:02 PM

I'd trade Austin first chance I had.He doesn't know the strike zone at all.We've seen enough of him to know what's ahead. 

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he gone!


#47 jkcarew

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 02:18 PM

If you can add Cruz on a reasonable term, you do it. At that point you lose Cron or Austin. You have nothing invested in Cron...little invested in Austin. If Garver can't catch, you might have had to make a call on one of these guys even without Cruz. I'm still not convinced you'll have a 4-man bench.

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#48 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 02:20 PM

 

I'm really not sure why you say this. This Cron character doesn't inspire me at all. I look at him as another Logan Morrison, and I'm guessing that is what we will get. Strikes out alot, hits for power, no one wants him, dumpster pickup. Don't expect alot from this guy. 

 

Let him and Austin fight it out in Spring training. Put Cave in that group too. You can keep 2 of the three. None of the 3 of them are must haves. Let a couple win the job and one guy lose it. 

 

Well mainly cause the article was about Austin but you can include Cron too. 

 

The overall point is that if Cruz or another pure DH type ends up here somehow, they can't keep everyone on the roster. They can't keep all 3 around. Since this article is about Austin, I just used his name.

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#49 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 04:15 PM

 

If I were GM, I'm keeping Tyler Austin. We have POTENTIAL options with Rooker/Wiel, but if Wiel is truly a good option he will get picked in the rule V draft thursday. Tyler Austin has homered 1 out of 15 AB's and at 400 AB's that's a 30 HR pace. Only 8 players in MLB in 2018 had a better HR/AB pace. 

 

CJ Cron has not been much better in terms of OPS and owns a 26% K rate as well. He also has not been much better v RHP. The difference between RHP and LHP for Austin was .130 different in 2018, while Cron had an .160 OPS drop off vs RHP.

 

Austin is a younger version of Cron for 4 million less, and has 2 more years of control. 

If the Twins are able to sign Cruz I would move on from the Cron experiment and put Austin at 1st and platoon him with Kepler. That way Kepler can play almost everyday and Jake Cave will get in the lineup a lot more vs RHP. It's a Win win.

 

 

VS RHP

 

1B Kepler RF Cave

 

Vs LHP 

 

1B Austin RF Kepler

Like the concept, but it's too much Kepler.Hard to play a guy every day who has a >735 or less OPS. Also, given how well Cave hits against RH pitching we need to give at least some ABs against LH pitching to see if he can improve. Consitent ABs against LHP seemed to help Kepler over itme. I would just tweak this as follows:

 

Vs. RHP

IB Kepler RF Cave

 

Vs. LHP

1B Austin RF Kepler/Cave - each roughly 50%

 

DH - Cron, with occasionally Sano, Rosario, Cave and Kepler as rest days.  


#50 jorgenswest

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 04:59 PM

I dug through the bbref pages to pull up the platoon splits for Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz, including their minors numbers (but not Cruz' minors; plenty to go on from his MLB resume). Here are the results, which were somewhat surprising to me:

Player PA vs RHP OPS vs RHP PA vs LHP OPS vs LHP
Austin 2144 .... .834 .... 927 ... .811
Cron 2716 ... .790 ... 1030 ... .833
Cave 2355 ... .815 ... 836 ... .632
Cruz 4651 ... .835 .... 1767 ... .927

So Cruz, unsurprisingly, is the best player of the four, regardless of the starting pitcher. Signing him should help the team, depending, of course, on how much he declines. Note that Cruz OPSed over 850 in two of the past three years versus right handers.

The second most valuable player from that group, in my view, is Austin. He has hit RHP just as well as Nelson Cruz over his career!

Cave looks like the third most valuable, with an OPS north of 800 against RHP, which is more than 70% of the ABs. Of course, as a lefty with Kepler and Rosario, he doesn't have a good path to ABs in the OF, and he doesn't hit righties better than Austin or Cruz, either. And he is terrible versus lefties.

Cron looks weakest from this group. Sure, he mashes lefties, but not much more than Austin, and definitely not more than Cruz.


I don’t think that minor league OPS data particularly when not normed would not be very reliable.

The strike out and walk rate splits would tell a much better story. Did you look at those? If the more recent minor league K/BB splits are similar I would have more confidence in his ability to hit major league right handed pitching.

#51 Boom Boom

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 05:36 PM

I think trying to use Austin as the righty-side of a platoon is trying too hard to keep him on the roster.
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#52 jorgenswest

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 06:03 PM

I think trying to use Austin as the righty-side of a platoon is trying too hard to keep him on the roster.


Do you cut a guy who might be your best bat against a left handed pitcher? Is that bat more valuable than a 13th pitcher?

#53 Dman

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 06:15 PM

I know this is slightly off topic but it appears the Rays are in on Cruz and they have plenty of money to spend.Sooo what does that say about what they think about Cron?Was there some baseball move I don't understand where they lost him or do they not think he is that good?Any ideas?

 


#54 jtkoupal

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 06:50 PM

I have a feeling Austin might be the odd man out when the Twins sign Nelson Cruz


#55 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 December 2018 - 07:06 PM

 

I know this is slightly off topic but it appears the Rays are in on Cruz and they have plenty of money to spend.Sooo what does that say about what they think about Cron?Was there some baseball move I don't understand where they lost him or do they not think he is that good?Any ideas?

 

Well, they just spent more on a SP than than the Twins ever have (yearly average amount)....so maybe they are done? 

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#56 Doctor Wu

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 06:46 AM

 

I didn't realize that Cruz had 360 HRs -- that's almost Bainesian!

 

Cruz has 33.4 WAR and 360 HRs, with an .860 OPS. Baines had 38.7, 389, and .820, though with significantly more hits over a longer career. But does that mean that if Cruz has another solid year or two, folks could be pushing for the HOF? I know this belongs in another post, but that Baines selection keeps looking weaker and weaker to me.

Bonus points for using the term "Bainesian". Love it!

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#57 Doctor Wu

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 06:48 AM

Just think, a year ago we were all debating the merits --- or lack thereof -- of Morrison and Vargas at first base and DH. Frankly, I'm not sure if the outlook for this coming season represents progress or not.

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#58 Twodogs

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 03:31 PM

DH seems like his best fit.

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#59 Brandon

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Posted 13 December 2018 - 03:31 PM

The plan for Austin is for Hrbeck to coach him and Cron into a full cage no holds bar WWE style knock out match for 1B winner takes all.

How does anyone not see this comming?

#60 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 02:54 PM

I don’t think that minor league OPS data particularly when not normed would not be very reliable.

The strike out and walk rate splits would tell a much better story. Did you look at those? If the more recent minor league K/BB splits are similar I would have more confidence in his ability to hit major league right handed pitching.


For both Cron and Austin, they had K/BB numbers in the minors of about 2.5 to 1. In the majors, Cron’s rate jumped to 4:1, whereas Austin’s has jumped to 5:1.

For Nelson Cruz, he had a similar rate of 2.5 or so to 1 K/BB in the minors and also in the majors.

I would assume that both Austin and Cron would improve their K/BB rates over time, gravitating towards their minor league rates.

On a slightly different note, Justin Bour has an OPS of 853 against righties, better than Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz!



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